Turn dis out

Are you telling me that if blacks have a high turn out for APNU AFC and Indians have a low turn out, meaning fewer PPP votes, it doesn't matter.

If APNU brings in 145k, AFC 30k,  meaning APNU AFC gets 175k, and the PPP gets  160k, clearly that will determine the seat allocation.

So you can't read much less understand so you respond with a pretty picture. Do you also prefer books with pretty pictures over books with "words"?

Where did I say that?

I thought I was sufficiently uber specific as to my point.

For a turnout strategy to work, the turnout help that the Coalition needs has to be HISTORIC and the Indians have to HISTORICALLY stay at home in 2015.

There is no way that there will be any accidental turnout issue with Indians meaning virtually no Indians will be staying at home because a PPP victory is assured. Not even the duncest peasant believes that.

The Indians who do stay at home will be the viciously anti-PPP ones. The ones who consciously are OK with a Coalition win. Do such people even exist? And in significant numbers?

Add to this the PPP's Suppress the Black Vote/Frighten or Threaten Indians to Vote effort and I am not really seeing the makings of a HISTORIC election in terms of turnout and a radically altered electorate.

Stop spamming my thread you illiterate antiman!

HEHEHEHE..yeh Shaaitn carry yo rass da side with dem there numbers yeh.

I really liking the Coalition more an more when I see pics of dem big up girls...ketch ma drift?

Now that is a sight that has Jagdeo quaking.  An Indian among a group of other Indians waving his PNC colors!

I gave you some numbers.  PPP down by 6k voters.  AFC down by 5k voters.  Same reason as Indians stay home.  APNU up by 1k voters.  APNU AFC 175k, PPP 160K.  Turn out leads to coalition victory.

The PPP vote in 2011 was 16k below what it was in 2006, and APNU was up by 26k, so no great transformation project for 2015.  I leave that nonsense to the AFC cultists.

Now that is a sight that has Jagdeo quaking.  An Indian among a group of other Indians waving his PNC colors!

That is the sight carib that the PPP and their varied clowns all over do not want to see.

The myth that they have been selling that Berbicians who voted AFC in 2011 will somehow magically disappear is bogus and that was exposed on sunday like nobody's business.

The PPP has been lying to the people and the Coalition has a solid record of exposing the lies.

Cain you love the pics?

Wattax!! Backhand bitch slap.

The AFC Spicy Jaganite Recipe crowd celebrating that all dem PNCites gonna vote Coalition

Like 100% PNC voters ever won an election in Guyana. I'm still waiting on the AFC to show some signs that they can hold those 2 seats in Parliament from Region 6. Then I can see a path to a Coalition victory.

Bai just give dem some poke and rice and they'll vote for you.

You does waste people time sometimes.

the collation with all them indian girls and the ppp with kwame no wonder nehru and yugi like the ppp

Let's just archive my posts like the above and after the election we'll compare whose had slightly better predictive value.

I suspect you're gonna get embarrassed badly when the PPP gets somewhere in the viscinity of 48% to 52%.

So hear nuh Shaitaain, here's my wager. When you lose, I just wanna say to you, YO you lost, dats all.

Now, "should" PPP get as you predict, I will try my utmost to contact the AG..know who ah talkin bout?,..he gonna hook you up with someone who got a Uncle, who gon hooku up with a binnie dat u could lash.

the only "turnout" factor favoring a PPP win in MAY is the amount of rigging they are allowed to get away with

much misdirection in play . . .

I must acknowledge that "shaitaan" is among( if not the only) poster out of the opposition camp,conscious enough to realize that a majority awaits the P.P.P on May 11 

Only because I think that the PPP can moreso get away with their campaign incompetence and blunders a lil moh easier than the Coalition.

The Coalition needed to run a near perfect campaign where they were uber competent and made all the right moves. It is pretty clear this is not happening.

The PPP just had to not piss themselves in public. You all seem to be managing well enough at not pissing yourselves on the hustings. Congratulations, you PPPites are once again meeting my low bar all the while the Indian people (and some bribed Amerindians and some Black/Mixed people with no shame) trot out slowly to curse themselves and rescue you mudheads from the disaster of your own making.

Councie.....I must admit....Shaitan keep forgeting that The Top PPP Executive from Freedom House and The Office of the President had a PPP Election Rally that was only attended by 2 Persons.

You realise that Jagdeo still calls him himself MR President on the VOTERS LIST and  Rumtar call himself Politician.

WHO the man and who the anti man?

Something I missed. A comparison of turnout in the recent elections.

In 2015, the Official List of Electors (OLE) is 570,786. A 70% turnout is 399,550 voters. Which is almost a guaranteed landslide PPP loss and would seem to validate the accuracy of the List which I strongly doubt. A more reasonable turnout of 350,000 voters would represent an official turnout rate of 61% and be more in line with 2011 and 2006.

In 2011, the turnout was 72.9% (346,654 actual voters) of the OLE of 475,496.

In 2006, the turnout was 68.82% (336,375 actual voters) of the OLE of 492,369.

In 2001, the turnout was 91.7% (403,734 actual voters) of the OLE of 440,185.

The OLE increased from 440k in 2001 to 475k in 2011.  I will be curious to know how it grew by 105k in 3 years, when in the previous 10 it only grew by 35k.

Was there massive under registration in the prior years, because it certainly isnt voters coming of age?

he is a ppp send among us to spy for the ppp,a wolf in sheep clothing 

LMAO

Dude I've always prided myself on being a wolf in wolf's clothing.

I'm sure the PPP has better spy applicants than Shaitaan.

I confess I don't know.

The only thing I can wrack my brain and come up with is the computerization of the National Register of Registrants which GECOM did engage in from which we extract the OLE within the past three years.

Guyanese don't register to vote. They are instead registered to vote by GECOM. It's perfectly reasonable that the bulk of 90,000 of the population was not captured before. I can always believe in Guyanese incompetence. And if these people weren't captured before and didn't care to vote before then they ain't gonna be voting now just because GECOM added them to a List that they didn't care to be on in the first place since they never made an issue of being left off the List previously.

GECOM registered 430,746 persons, otherS to be captured in continuous registration process

Georgetown, GINA, August 19, 2008

The Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM) has announced that as at July 4, the end of the House-to-house registration exercise for Local Government elections, 430,746 persons completed registration while 33,827 persons could not be registered because they were not in possession of the required documents.
GECOM in a release issued today said those persons will be captured during the continuous registration exercise scheduled to commence by October.
          The Commission said that of the 33,827 who were not registered, 11,370 persons who had applied for birth certificates were still awaiting these documents while 1,905 refused to be registered and approximately 12,000 persons could not be registered because they were out of their area of residence.
          GECOM has compiled a list of persons who are awaiting birth certificates and would be forwarding it to the General Registrar’s Office to assist in expediting the process. The list will also be shared with the respective political parties so that they could assist in stimulating their supporters to register, the release added.
          The release further stated that GECOM is currently engaged in efforts to contract out the cross matching of finger prints to eliminate the possibility of multiply registration.
          The national registration exercise commenced in January after the political Opposition insisted that a new Register of Registrants was necessary before Local Government Elections were held.
GECOM, recognized that all persons may not be registered at the end of the exercise and therefore arranged for continuous registration to commence after the production of the new Register of Registrants to capture persons not captured in the House-to-House registration. Twenty three Registration Offices and four sub offices have been established in the 10 Administrative Regions to facilitate this exercise.
          Government made the sum of $300M available to GECOM at the beginning of the exercise to finance the scrutinising of the process to ensure transparency. The scrutineers are drawn from the political parties in parliament.

So as of July 4, 2008, GECOM verified 430,746 voters plus an additional 33,827 voters lacking basic documents to allow GECOM to register them.

So Guyana on July 4, 2008 had a voting age population of approximately 464,573 persons out of like a general population of 750,000. That sounds eminently reasonable at 62% of the general population.

In the runup to the 2006 election, it was estimated by all and sundry (the U.S. Embassy included) that approximately 100k registered persons were migrants on the List. I can buy a similar figure in the 2008 to 2015 period.

look at the fractions ie the percentages and you will notice that all conditions remaining the same the same percentages remain the same even in high turnout. However, a high turnout means the APNU ceiling expands vastly more than the PPP and the  over hang or largest remainders probabilistically shifts to the APNU-afc camp as well. It means if they pick up only one more seat via the integer value per the seat they will also likely collect an extra seat in the fractional parts as well.

I did recall saying that many young people were not registered and that the PNC should have been dealing with this problem in their strongholds.

Last election some of these unregistered people decided to vote at the last minute and were turned away.  They then became convinced of a PPP conspiracy to deprive them of the right to vote.

Guyana is a tinder box and Jagdeo is the light to blow the fuse.  His racial screaming is heard by the other side and their fear of a PPP (coolie) conspiracy becomes strengthened.

Indians may not know this, but it is possible that the best thing for them will be a APNU AFC victory.  Then the alienated will turn their frustration on Granger.

Jagdeo is scared shitless. If the PPP lose he stand to lose millions as his access to Chinese handouts, payola from other firms plus his secret partnerships will all be dead. He do not mind being a racist now and taking the heavy lift off Ramotar.

The PPP cannot lose this one. It would be devastating to all of them since many are carrying heavy debt load financed by graft. Some even fear Jail time. They will use scare tactics, buy IDs in strategic areas and even use scare tactics to suppress votes...and yes...even stuff some boxes.. They simply cannot lose.

I'm inclined to agree with you. However, I just cannot fathom any extraordinary historic level turnout in 2015 to put us in this scenario of "high turnout." I totally agree that a high turnout favors the Coalition.

Usually for such a circumstance to occur, we would be seeing some signs of a forthcoming apocalypse for the incumbent. There would be a palpable momentum against them from large segments of the population, especially their own supporters. I don't get that is the case here and we're only like 14 days out. The 2015 turnout should be roughly comparable to the 2011 turnout. We have no reason to believe otherwise and we are at a rather late stage.

Oh yea, and we haven't factored in the impact of the May 11th date being a mere 6 days after Indian Arrival Day and the PPP will be milking that for all it's worth.