New data suggests the rapid decline in Toronto home sales is accelerating, and at least one housing bear sees a Canadian real estate correction of up to 40 per cent coming.

The country’s largest housing market took an abrupt turn from record highs on the heels of Ontario’s 16 measures to cool housing, with sales falling 20 per cent and new listings soaring almost 50 per cent across the Greater Toronto Area in May.

John Pasalis, president and broker at Realosophy, has crunched the early numbers for June and sees a “troubling” plunge in transactions.

“People are just pulling back, it was a really wild swing,” Pasalis told BNN in an interview Monday.

“Who knows where it’s going to go. A lot of this is driven by market psychology.Realosophy’s research suggests sales of freehold homes across the Greater Toronto Area are down some 39 per cent so far in June. And for the week ended June 9, sales volumes plummeted 44 per cent compared to the same period in 2016.

When it comes to new listings of freeholds, they rose 34 per cent last week, according to Realosophy.

Pasalis notes the growth rate in new listings has actually been on the decline for the past four weeks, but added in an email that he considers the rapid decline in sales “more troubling than the rise in inventory.”

In the condo market, Realosophy saw a 22 per cent pullback in sales last week and an 11 per cent rise in new listings.

The plunge in June sales was not uniform across the GTA. Realosophy says the drop is more pronounced in outlying communities such as Markham and Richmond Hill – up to 60 per cent year-over-year. The firm’s earlier research suggested heightened speculative behaviour in those communities.

Longstanding housing bear David Madani, senior Canadian economist at Capital Economics, told BNN in an interview Monday that in a “speculative housing bubble, once prices stop going up the whole reason for speculating in the market disappears.”

“It isn’t about interest rates.”

Madani expects sales to continue to weaken as more prospective buyers take a wait-and-see approach, and listings to climb as homeowners look to cash out.

“On that basis I expect prices to continue to decline over the long, long, long term,” said Madani.

“I see a correction of between 20 to 40 per cent in the Canadian housing market - over five years.”

I wouldn't live in Canada if houses were giving away for free. Trump country is my choice.  

Canada got better quality of life

They can keep that quality of life right there. Too cold for me. 

Mars posted:

They can keep that quality of life right there. Too cold for me. 

I do not know what is happening to the housing market around me. Properties are on the market months on end and the owners are not accepting lower offers least they lose their shirts. Everywhere there are hundreds of units going up and the occupancy rate is not keeping up. It is fascinating. I cannot understand this market. We are possibly looking at a bust soon.

Stormborn posted:

Mars posted:

They can keep that quality of life right there. Too cold for me. 

I do not know what is happening to the housing market around me. Properties are on the market months on end and the owners are not accepting lower offers least they lose their shirts. Everywhere there are hundreds of units going up and the occupancy rate is not keeping up. It is fascinating. I cannot understand this market. We are possibly looking at a bust soon.

Prices here are now higher than they were before the market crashed. We currently have a high migration rate of people coming here and it's driving prices up even more. The better communities or places on the water are seeing prices going up real fast. Houses in my community do not last a long time on the market.

RiffRaff posted:

Canada got better quality of life

Correct, though extremely cold weather in the winter, at times, quality of life is excellent with most amenities close at hand.

Particularly in Alberta plus other prairie provinces -- Saskatchewan and Manitoba -- general weather conditions surprisingly exceeding good.

My taxes went up this year. The reason given is that house prices in my neighborhood will rise rapidly. I have seen 3 houses that went up for sale and they were sold in a week for more than the asking price.

These houses are grossly inflated and not worth their asking prices. I have seen a lot of shabby work done. Added to that, by the time your mortgage is paid off you would have paid twice the price, as the banks rake in hard earned cash.

cain posted:

These houses are grossly inflated and not worth their asking prices. I have seen a lot of shabby work done. Added to that, by the time your mortgage is paid off you would have paid twice the price, as the banks rake in hard earned cash.

If you can afford it, take out a 15-year mortgage. I did and paid off my mortgages in 10 years saving $39,000 in interest compared to a 30-year mortgage. I also paid an extra $500.00 on the principal every month.

Canadian home prices are in correction due to the Govt initiative to quell speculation and open vacant properties to the public.  Asian speculators have bought up prime real estate around Toronto, built capacity but have chosen to keep them empty hoping to flip them and make a bundle.  By doing this less and less units are offered to a growing population pushing up prices.

To stem this tide, the Canadian Govt has implemented a tax on vacancy.  This is eating into the projected gains and has put a chill on new speculators and is forcing units onto the market.

skeldon_man posted:

cain posted:

These houses are grossly inflated and not worth their asking prices. I have seen a lot of shabby work done. Added to that, by the time your mortgage is paid off you would have paid twice the price, as the banks rake in hard earned cash.

If you can afford it, take out a 15-year mortgage. I did and paid off my mortgages in 10 years saving $39,000 in interest compared to a 30-year mortgage. I also paid an extra $500.00 on the principal every month.

good for you but then again them bai na rob people like you

Demerara_Guy posted:

RiffRaff posted:

Canada got better quality of life

Correct, though extremely cold weather in the winter, at times, quality of life is excellent with most amenities close at hand.

Particularly in Alberta plus other prairie provinces -- Saskatchewan and Manitoba -- general weather conditions surprisingly exceeding good.

we need to post you to the tip of Alaska