The fundamentals of the election have not changed since the first Presidential debate. Obama screwed up big time by allowing Romney to get away with flip-flops and falsehoods. He has to do better in the remaining debates or he will lose whatever edge he had coming into October. What edge he had in October? He was leading in the polls in ALL 12 States most pundits considered "Swing States". In the path to 270 Electoral College votes, if you counted the States certain to vote Democrat and certain to vote Republican in the Presidential elections, Obama had a lead that meant he only had to win about three of those big Swing States - like Florida and Ohio. While the national polls moved in Romney's favor as a result of Obama's somnambulance by 2 to 3 percentage points, in the swing states there was not much movement. So all this "pants-on-fire" talk by CaribJ shows how unstable a mind he has.
Kari I do not know which planet you are on.
The folks at MSNBC and NPR , hardly a Romney supporting stations, report that there has been a tightening in the polls.
Note that I offer evidence. All you offer is your adoration for The One, and your feeling that any one who doesnt feel similarly is either evil or unstable.
http://www.politico.com/2012-election/swing-state/
You will note that the gap in OH and VA are quite narrow...moreso than two weeks ago. Obama was also leading in every state, even NC. Now he apparently has lost NC and more disturbingly FL with its 29 electoral college votes.
Indeed if the black/ young white turn out drops slightly in those states than Obama's lead evaporates. Note that in 2008 blacks accounted for around 20% of the voters in VA and NC, meaning that approx 40% of Obama's votes came from those groups. Now with GOP trickery (ID and other scams), and with widespread malaise that base will not deliver what it did in 2008. Clearly Obama has lost support from many whites as well.
So if Romney wins VA and OH in addition to the states that were once Obama leaning but he now leads (Obama was ahead in all swing states before the debate, even NC), then Romney wins.
Unless there is a 5% gap then the races are a statistically dead heat. Once you consider that groups that are an important part of Obama's base (young college educated adults and blacks) are not excited this year will they vote? Hispanics are caught up in whether they fear the GOP, or they distrust Obama, given that he deported way more undocumented migrants than the last two Presidents combined. This might also depress turn out.
Will new ID laws in many swing states prevent many of these groups from voting?
In addition many ultra rights, who had lost interest when they felt that Romney was inept, have now been re-ignited. All one needs to do is look on GNI. Basemen and yuji switched from Romney to (reluctantly) Obama. Now they have gone right back to Romney.
So Kari I dont know where you are getting your info from but every one in the Obama campaign is worried and you ought to be too.