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FM
Former Member
Written by SEETA RAMGOBIN.
Monday, 05 September 2011 01:40
WHEN President Bharrat Jagdeo pointed to the positive fiscal results of the local economy, during the first half of 2011, it revealed that what those who oppose and the negative critics were and are still saying are mere far-fetched figments of their imagination. So instantly, one can deduce that Guyana’s economy is being built by hard and astute work from the leaders. Also, the hope is that this kind of news will not be made light of. The populace must be informed. During the past six or seven years, Guyana has been on a significantly elevated growth curve, and this news is pleasant, but not surprising. But why this is so? This is so because over the last five years, the climb has been slow but sure and steady. So this 5.9 percent growth is symptomatic of faith in wise investments and long-term strategies. The local exports actually jumped by 30 percent. So this is something to really shout about. After all, in many parts of the world, economies are struggling, and inflation is difficult to combat. I do think some details are in order here:

The non-sugar sector is projected to grow at 3.4 percent, revised upward from the original projection of 4.6 percent and 2.8 percent at the time of the budget of 2011. Export earnings expanded by 34.6 percent to US$533.1 million. In fact, Export earnings from sugar increased by 32.4 percent to US$50.1 million, reflecting a 30.4 percent increase in quantity shipped to 99,738 tonnes.

Rice continued its trend of successful first crops, with the 2011 first crop being 207,514 tonnes, 23 percent higher than at the corresponding period in 2010, and the highest first crop in the industry’s history. So rice export earnings expanded by 35.1 percent to US$92.6 million, mainly attributed to a 26.4 percent increase in average export price to US$551.4 per tonne, coupled with a 6.8 percent increase in export volume to 167,945 tonnes. So the leap is most salutary and very welcomed. But a word of commendation must go to the ‘behind the scene’ people.

Guyana’s improved performance is due mainly to investments and innovations in drainage and irrigation, the development of new and more tolerant rice strains, higher yields and higher acreage of paddy planted. These facts must not be taken for granted. To reach this far and reap these kinds of results, one must remember the hard work of the leaders. This is where people can now be hopeful that Guyana’s future is beginning to look very secure. In other words, people do not have to panic and leave in droves. Right here in Guyana, a solid living can be made.

Excerpts from the Guyana Chronicle

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quote:
Originally posted by SuperMike:
Oh rass..iz wey D2 and all the AFC katahars dey...why yall avoiding dis thread EH????
A narco state will show visible ostentation of easy wealth but it sucks the life from productive capacities that is necessary to meet the essential needs of a people and so it in fact impoverishes the society.
FM
quote:
Originally posted by D2:
quote:
Originally posted by SuperMike:
Oh rass..iz wey D2 and all the AFC katahars dey...why yall avoiding dis thread EH????
A narco state will show visible ostentation of easy wealth but it sucks the life from productive capacities that is necessary to meet the essential needs of a people and so it in fact impoverishes the society.


i shame yu rass ain;t gat..EH?? dis is your best come back..singing the same ole song EH?? so can you post the numbers for the GREAT usa dumm 2??? please post the USA numbers fu all to see.
FM


That 5.9% Half-Year GDP Growth
Read by Gerhard Ramsaroop, AFC Executive

Introduction

Finance Minister Ashni Singh reported that Guyana’s GDP grew by 5.9% in the first half of 2011. The Minister went to great lengths to emphasize the non-sugar sector aspects of economic growth. We can understand this given the fiasco associated with the new Skeldon factory that has consistently failed to meet its production and employment targets. The Minister gave us the growth rate of several sectors of the economy. Notably absent is the weight of each sector of the economy.

We know that the Bureau of Statistics has rebased the GDP statistics to 2006. One implication here is new weights would have been used for the various sectors of the economy when calculating GDP from 2006. If we play around long enough with the weights we can get higher growth rates without there being any change in the actual output of the sectors. However, this is another issue for another day.

It is important to note that Guyana did not historically publish quarterly breakdown of GDP as several of our sister CARICOM countries – Trinidad and Tobago, Belize, Barbados and Jamaica – have done. It is interesting that Guyanese are offered up these half-year estimates in an election year. We find it strange that the Bureau of Statistics has not been reporting the quarterly GDP statistics. For the Minister to be able to come up with a half-year estimate these numbers must be available. Even the Bank of Guyana does not report them. As a matter of fact, the Bank of Guyana’s monetary policy functions will be better served if the Minister can release these numbers on a quarterly basis. The Minister might need to consult President Jagdeo before this becomes a reality.

The Jagdeo Rate of Growth

The average rate of real GDP growth under President Jagdeo has been 1.95% from 2000 to 2010. This is hardly spectacular. Even if we assume a 5.9% rate of growth for 2011 we will achieve an average rate of growth from 2000 to 2011 of 2.3%. The PPP has a habit of telling Guyanese how well Guyana is doing in spite of the global crisis and problems. What it does not want to face up to is the fact that when the world economy achieved a boom from 2000 to 2007, Guyana grew at a meagre 1.45% in the pre-crisis period. Why has this been the case? Below this release will explain some reasons for this mediocre performance.

Private Investments

A country must have investments if it is to continue growing. Growth, in turn, is critical because it leads to employment creation for citizens. If investments are zero then there will be no growth. We particularly value private investments given the private sector’s ability to generate growth. When analysing private investments we must take the private investment rate (PIR), which is calculated as the dollar amount of private investments divided by GDP. If we look at the PIR since 1992 it has declined continually. It continues to decline into 2010. Therefore, it is a mystery how growth has picked up given Guyana’s declining PIR.

Government investments have however increased while PIR is declining. Government investments have two main aspects: (i) a non-tradable aspect such as construction of roads, schools, bridges, etc; and (ii) a tradable component such as investments by GuySuCo and GuyOil – notable state-owned enterprises. The problem is government investments have been very inefficient to date. The Skeldon sugar factory is a disaster while infrastructure works continue to break up after a few months of being constructed. It is therefore a mystery how Guyana can achieve 5.9% growth with grossly inefficient public investments and falling domestic private investments.

Jobs

While the Minister appears keen to report half-year GDP we still do not have regular statistics on the Guyana labour market. The unemployment rate continues to be a mystery and it is a number typically subjected to political abuse. We also need to know what the rate of labour force participation is, which is calculated by dividing the labour force by the population. Regular labour statistics are critical for the proper management of the economy. In the United States, for instance, they even know the ethnic and gender profile of unemployment. The AFC will be a government of transparency and every effort will be put in place to see these data get collected and reported regularly.

Underground Economy and Remittances

These two have served as an important source of consumption. Guyana receives approximately 40% of GDP in remittances each year. This is one of the highest percentages in the world. Remittance inflows are stable and altruistic. Even when the North American economies enter into recession, Guyanese abroad still remit funds home. Remittances have served as an important pressure valve and have propped up family consumption for years. The inflows have also created a false sense of success among government Ministers. From an economic growth perspective, remittances could contribute to a reduction of labour supply and willingness to work. Remittances is the dual of migration of Guyanese – itself a symptom of the failed policies of the PPP since 1992.

The illegal underground economy has been particularly destructive in terms of security and has made it difficult for legitimate businesses to compete. Drug trafficking and money laundering lead to corruption of at all levels of the society. The WikiLeaks are bringing these out clearly. However, we must note that these illegal activities do not contribute favourably to long-term GDP growth and prosperity. Drug dealing increases the cost of doing business among legitimate business investors.

ress-releases&Itemid=55" target="_blank">Source
FM
A PROUD ECONOMIC GROWTH
quote...Guyana’s continuing economic growth is certainly a matter for resounding applause. And it was in that mood that President Bharrat Jagdeo on Friday last proudly declared that this nation’s economic progress could be a source of “envy anywhere in the world…”.
The growth rate definitely compares most favourably with the current trend among member states of the Caribbean Community and is perhaps unique in the pattern of progress within recent years, despite bewildering factors, regionally and internationally.
Even in normal times, given the nature of competitive party politics, it would be too much to expect the political opposition having something positive to say about Guyana’s steady path of social and economic advancement. But certainly not with a new general election a few months away.
Nevertheless, Guyanese of all walks of life, and irrespective of political affiliations, could take comfort in the latest official disclosure of data that the country registered an almost six percent economic growth for the first half of this year.
As told by President Jagdeo himself at Friday’s press conference: “I am extremely pleased with the Mid-Year Report on the economy. It is a great achievement for a country to keep a high level of growth in light of the global turmoil.
“Over the past six or seven years”, he said, “our country has been on a significantly elevated growth trajectory; and for the first half of this year we have had a 5.9 percent growth which is an enviable figure anywhere in the world…”
The official expectation, based on current data and projections, is that Guyana should record an overall economic growth in 2011 of 5.1 percent. Such an achievement could only generate more favourable responses from the international financial institutions in their own independent assessments of what the government, private sector and people in general of Guyana are continuing to achieve —against the odds.
At a time of recurring disheartening news, for various reasons, among both developed and undeveloped, rich and poor nations of the global community, the released information on economic growth for the first half of the year, can only inspire Guyanese to achieve further progress - beyond 2011.....unquote
FM

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