Django posted:

 

Don't tell me the oil find didn't compound the problem and Guyana as a small nation should succumb to Maduro decree claiming the area where oil was found.

Relations between Guyana and Venezuela had already begun to deteriorate when Exxon began to drill. In fact the PPP even sent a mild cuss down to Maduro telling him to keep out of Guyana's affairs.

One of two things would have happened.  Either the PPP would have folded to Maduro's threats and sent Exxon packing.  Or Exxon would remain and Venezuela would cease to buy Guyana rice.

You see this is what happens when a nation depends on another, which remains hostile, refusing to relinquish claims to 2/3 of its territory.   This is like Cuba putting its sugar industry in the hands of the USA.

First, the resulting conditions from the drought can be managed. Second, where did I blame the present drought on the coalition. Always grasping at paper tiger. Third, which PPP soigné are you referring to. You are of the mistaken belief that if someone criticizes the present government, then they must be a PPP supporter orcas you said "PPP stooge". This is the level of your arguments which surprises me. Third, I agree with you that we have exchange, not change. But this is something I have been writing about. I have pointed to the lack of integrity in these politicians we have in Guyana. Fourth, yes, they have displayed their arrogance. Remember what Harmon said when the question of the large salary increase they gave themselves was first raised. They display their arrogance by assuming that we are so dumb as to not recognize the spin they are putting on the Harmon actions, or for telling us that donations to political parties are political investments for which there will be a return on that investment, or for not revealing the names of the other advisers, for continuing to act even though there is an injunction regarding the LGE. Fifth, the for whatever reason, the economy grew. If there are drop in prices, then ther are things that governments can do to mitigate the effects instead of just continuing the previous government's policies which you claim were not good in the first place. Sixth, it is the hight of folly to base your argument regarding Venezuela's purchase of Guyana's rice on what if situations. The reality was that Venezuela continued to purchase Guyana's expensive rice even thoug the Venezuela economy was in crisis over several years. seventh, I did not know that you are a psychologist who can determine from afar that someone is "manic". Good job!  Eight, I thought that the present president was elected to office and that there are mechanisms tin place to replace him if the majority if electors determine that they wish to replace him. Please define for me how you characterize the present Venezuelian president as a dictator. Is it because for you  the votes of poor people are not as important or valid as votes from rich or higher and middle class people. Or is it because the US government characterizes him as such because of the "socialist" policies, or because they were unable to foster a coup against Chavez. Or is this another example of an elected dictatorship, which we are currently experiencing in Guyana. (Not different in structure from what we had in the previous administration which was accused of being an elected dictatorship. nineth, the Venezuelian government has been involved in other acts to help Caricom nations. Think of the oil deal. And this was  again against a backdrop of a poor economy. Why? Your shallow analysis of complicated situations and dynamics and your penchant for empty rhetorics prevent you from really understanding what is and has happened.

Zed posted:

I thought all essequibians knew that Essequibo belongs to Guyana, unless if you have info to indicate otherwise. So, then who is the audience?

so. Your post is your interpretation of who"we". And who is the message really meant for? Now,move the analysis deeper.

you seem paranoid about the PPP. Or are they paying you to write this.

 " GOG printed all of these stickers and posters that said"Essequibo is we own" and passed it out in Essequibo.I wonder why it was in English and not Spanish. What was the message for essequibians who were reading it, what is the possible hidden message."

Suh this means it belongs "only" to the other major ethnicity.

Unbelievable....

No one is paying don't need it,for the Paranoia of the PPP it's a fact they are using the fear factor.

Zed posted:

First, the resulting conditions from the drought can be managed.

Second, where did I blame the present drought on the coalition. Always grasping at paper tiger. Third, which PPP soigné are you referring to. You are of the mistaken belief that if someone criticizes the present government, then they must be a PPP supporter orcas you said "PPP stooge". This is the level of your arguments which surprises me.

Third, I agree with you that we have exchange, not change. But this is something I have been writing about. I have pointed to the lack of integrity in these politicians we have in Guyana.

Fourth, yes, they have displayed their arrogance. Remember what Harmon said when the question of the large salary increase they gave themselves was first raised. They display their arrogance by assuming that we are so dumb as to not recognize the spin they are putting on the Harmon actions, or for telling us that donations to political parties are political investments for which there will be a return on that investment, or for not revealing the names of the other advisers, for continuing to act even though there is an injunction regarding the LGE.

Fifth, the for whatever reason, the economy grew. If there are drop in prices, then ther are things that governments can do to mitigate the effects instead of just continuing the previous government's policies which you claim were not good in the first place.

Sixth, it is the hight of folly to base your argument regarding Venezuela's purchase of Guyana's rice on what if situations. The reality was that Venezuela continued to purchase Guyana's expensive rice even thoug the Venezuela economy was in crisis over several years.

seventh, I did not know that you are a psychologist who can determine from afar that someone is "manic". Good job!  

Eight, I thought that the present president was elected to office and that there are mechanisms tin place to replace him if the majority if electors determine that they wish to replace him. Please define for me how you characterize the present Venezuelian president as a dictator. Is it because for you  the votes of poor people are not as important or valid as votes from rich or higher and middle class people. Or is it because the US government characterizes him as such because of the "socialist" policies, or because they were unable to foster a coup against Chavez. Or is this another example of an elected dictatorship, which we are currently experiencing in Guyana. (Not different in structure from what we had in the previous administration which was accused of being an elected dictatorship. nineth, the Venezuelian government has been involved in other acts to help Caricom nations. Think of the oil deal. And this was  again against a backdrop of a poor economy. Why? Your shallow analysis of complicated situations and dynamics and your penchant for empty rhetorics prevent you from really understanding what is and has happened.

Maduro is a dictator.  Take your screams to the many Venezuelans who voted against his gov't in the past elections, as they reject his increasingly irrational and manic behavior and attempt to suppress democracy in that land.

For Guyana to base an industry on the whims of such a lunatic just shows that the PPP themselves were lunatics.

Did the PPP attempt to find markets so that Guyana wouldn't be left looking stupid if the maniac decided that he wouldn't buy Guyana rice, because he wanted to prevent Guyana from exploiting its energy resources.

APNU and AFC look more confused than arrogant.  Caught in a trap of their own making and now pointing fingers at each other.

Had this happened under the PPP there would have been manic screams that "we have the mandate, can do what we want, and aren't under any obligation to explain what we do".

You cuss down this gov't because they are shutting down aspects of Guysuco.  Did you mention the difficulties that the PPP left the industry in?  NO!  Did you mention that plans to shut down Demerara estates had already begun under the PPP, and that Guysuco is merely carrying out plans that were already agreed on. NO!

So that makes you into a PPP stooge!

The economy grew because of gold.  Gold prices dropped.  So why does the PPP deserve credit for any thing when there is nothing that they did to merit it? Just look at the industry over which they had the greatest control!

Zed..would you mind space out your post,kinda hard to read,thanks.

Zed posted:

administration which was accused of being an elected dictatorship. nineth, the Venezuelian government has been involved in other acts to help Caricom nations. Think of the oil deal. And this was  again against a backdrop of a poor economy.

Burnham was integral to many aspects of CARICOM, as is Castro.

Maduro is a manic lunatic who destroyed Venezuela.

Maduro will leave Venezuela in the same state as Burnham left Guyana, but I bet you that you wouldn't adopt the Burnhamite excuse that Guyana's problems were due to the USA. Yes the USA was angered by many things that Burnham did in the 70s.

Django posted:

Zed..would you mind space out your post,kinda hard to read,thanks.

Yep.  In order to respond to him I had to inject paragraphs.

Zed posted:

Gil, the way the coalition government is going, there will not be a need for even an incompetent minister of agriculture. They said that rice is not their business, they mismanaged the Venezuela file so lost a lucrative market, they are, piece by piece, closing down the sugar industry, cash crop farmers are having problems selling their produce because of the slow down in the economy, there is still drought, they are making and/or condoning corrupt fertilized deals with overnight  companies tied to them, spending more on cleaning GT than on getting the economy going. They are certainly not replicating the PPP achievement in this vital sector. They do now have a clue how the economy actually works, the linkages and how the fortunes of agriculture is tied with the fortunes of the whole economy.

No quarrel here, bro. That's why Noel Holder has to go ASAP. I was told by someone in Guyana that the AFC had bargained for the Agriculture ministry even though it had not yet identified a suitable candidate. To me, that was reckless on the part of the AFC negotiators. Moreover, within the AFC leadership the right hand didn't know everything the left hand was doing. 

I am not going to blame President Granger or APNU for the state of distress in agriculture today, simply because he is running a coalition government with clearly set out division of labour between the coalition partners APNU and the AFC. I am blaming the AFC whose responsibility it is for the agriculture sector. Months have passed since the government announced the impending closure of Wales Sugar Estate but Minister Holder is a no-show in Wales. THAT is irresponsible and uncaring. 

As of now, the AFC knows it has an embarrassing agri minister and has had enough time to pick and put forward a workable replacement. 

caribny posted:

I see that APNU is to blame for the drought and for the devastation that Jagdeo brought upon the sugar industry.  But for the racial politics of Guyana APNU would do the same to sugar workers that the PPP did to bauxite workers.  But you see in Guyana Indos are superior to Afros, so should be treated better.

As to Venezuela.

1.  The PPP deal was one that was ANNUALLY renewable, based on the notion of a manic dictator.

2.  Maduro already told Guyana that they were going to re-allocate Guyana's rice quota to Uruguay.   That nation being a considerably more efficient producer than Guyana.

3. Maduro has lost control over his legislature. Do you really think that a broke Venezuela would have continued to buy expensive Guyanese rice?

Cease with your notion that the PPP was any more effective than is APNU AFC.  What ever benefits that existed from the Guyana economy in the last few years are because gold prices were high.  Now that they have dropped, this has impacted the economy.

NONE of you PPP stooges have been able to prove what exactly did the PPP do that APNU AFC aren't doing.  Both are incompetent, and corrupt, but at least APNU AFC have yet to display their arrogance!

Perhaps one thing that can be said is that the PPP had better luck than the Coalition   given all the things that have gone wrong since the Coalition took office last May. Even Guyana finding oil and having a deal with Exxon/Mobil has managed to screw things up for the Coalition. Like Bobby Cox used to say during their 14 consecutive years of winning the East, "it is better to be lucky than good". This Coalition can really use some luck because the way things are going, they can't seem to be any good.  Good luck deh Carib bai.

Caribny, still evasive about addressing some of the things I posted. Was Maduro elected by the majority of Venezuelans at the last elections? Yes, a large number of electors are against his policies but that does not make him a dictator. Granger was elected by just over half of the electorate in an election the results of which is disputed. It seems that the coalition government is losing support, does this make Granger a dictator? What makes you think that your narrative is universally accepted? Conceit? arrogance?

regarding your claim that the government based the  rice industry on the whims of the Venezuelan president, this is laughable. The rice industry was established a long time ago and except for during the burnham years, was successfully carried on. Yes, the Venezuela market was a lucrative one, but it was not the only market for Guyana's rice. Furthermore, rice millers and the GRDB were continually seeking new market for Guyana's rice and to recapture some of  the Caricom market lost during the dictatorship and the importation of cheapmSubsidized American rice. you  insult our intelligence and display how little you know and are divorced from the reality in Guyana when you make such a claim.

You are divorced from the truth when you say that I "cussed down" the government. I have always tried to present my views in a respectful and reasoned way even though it is difficult sometimes. Did you mention that the commission of inquiry that the government set up recommended that estates should not be closed, that during the elections campaign leading members of the coalition gave an assurance of this? Did you mention that  there was quite a bit of discussion on who gave the order to close Wales? Do you mention that they said they had a plan for how to ease the transition but have not yet been able to present it to the workers? Does rthat mean that you are a coalition stooge?  YEs, some closing down occurred during the previous government's terms, but that was a time when the economy was booming. Only an inept government will close down factories and throw workers out of work during an economic slowdown.

the economy did not grow just because of gold. Guyana produced many items, some of which were exported while others were consumed locally.  Many on this site lap up TK's simplistic notion of "donkey cart economy" and do not realize how divorced it is from the Guyanese economy. Growth does not happen because the government does nothing. It is because they choose to do some  things and choose not to do some things. If government's choose not to do something they are in fact doing something. Not difficult to really understand. Liberalism and neoliberalism. But in the case of Guyana, the government has helped the sectors. Even your claim that the government did nothing to aid the gold inspdustry is false and displays a lack of understanding of what the government has done to support this vital sector, increase gold production through releasing land for exploration, involving large international companies in the industry, tax breaks for equipment, etc.

regarding excuses, I did mention that it is poor argument using "What if" scenarios. Deal with reality!

Zed posted:

Caribny, still evasive about addressing some of the things I posted. Was Maduro elected by the majority of Venezuelans at the last elections? Yes, a large number of electors are against his policies but that does not make him a dictator. Granger was elected by just over half of the electorate in an election the results of which is disputed. It seems that the coalition government is losing support, does this make Granger a dictator? What makes you think that your narrative is universally accepted? Conceit? arrogance?

 

regarding your claim that the government based the  rice industry on the whims of the Venezuelan president, this is laughable. The rice industry was established a long time ago and except for during the burnham years, was successfully carried on. Yes, the Venezuela market was a lucrative one, but it was not the only market for Guyana's rice. Furthermore, rice millers and the GRDB were continually seeking new market for Guyana's rice and to recapture some of  the Caricom market lost during the dictatorship and the importation of cheapmSubsidized American rice. you  insult our intelligence and display how little you know and are divorced from the reality in Guyana when you make such a claim.

 

You are divorced from the truth when you say that I "cussed down" the government. I have always tried to present my views in a respectful and reasoned way even though it is difficult sometimes. Did you mention that the commission of inquiry that the government set up recommended that estates should not be closed, that during the elections campaign leading members of the coalition gave an assurance of this? Did you mention that  there was quite a bit of discussion on who gave the order to close Wales? Do you mention that they said they had a plan for how to ease the transition but have not yet been able to present it to the workers? Does rthat mean that you are a coalition stooge?  YEs, some closing down occurred during the previous government's terms, but that was a time when the economy was booming. Only an inept government will close down factories and throw workers out of work during an economic slowdown.

 

the economy did not grow just because of gold. Guyana produced many items, some of which were exported while others were consumed locally.  Many on this site lap up TK's simplistic notion of "donkey cart economy" and do not realize how divorced it is from the Guyanese economy. Growth does not happen because the government does nothing. It is because they choose to do some  things and choose not to do some things. If government's choose not to do something they are in fact doing something. Not difficult to really understand. Liberalism and neoliberalism. But in the case of Guyana, the government has helped the sectors. Even your claim that the government did nothing to aid the gold inspdustry is false and displays a lack of understanding of what the government has done to support this vital sector, increase gold production through releasing land for exploration, involving large international companies in the industry, tax breaks for equipment, etc.

 

regarding excuses, I did mention that it is poor argument using "What if" scenarios. Deal with reality!

You can crown Maduro hero for all I care.  Just now you will be encouraging him to invade Guyana.  Just understand that the majority of Venezuelans blame him for the mess that he has reduced the country to.

Food shortages, and long lines.........that should remind you of the Burnham era, and yet you sing praises of Maduro. 

Now as to Guyana's economy.   Look at Bank of GYs own numbers and you will see the massive growth of the gold exports in the mid 2010s.   Look at the GDP numbers and you will see that most of the growth was in the speculative retail and construction sectors.  These latter merely being a recycling of gold earnings.

Here we are in 2016 with a Guyana economy which faces challenges as it is a high cost producer of a limited range of commodities.  It is an economy which depended on preferential prices.  And its an economy which struggles to survive when such preferences aren't available. 

The current problems in the rice industry, at a time when there are numerous markets for this product in the Americas, just shows the problem. Guyanese rice is more expensive relative to the competition.  Hence our behavior like drug addicts dependent on an enemy nation run by a lunatic.

So I remain interested in what the PPP has done to transform Guyana's economy.  Skeldon, Marriott, Providence stadium, Buddy's Hotel?

What did the PPP do in its 23 years of governance to transform Guyana's economy.  You cannot say!

Zed posted:

 YEs, some closing down occurred during the previous government's terms, but that was a time when the economy was booming. Only an inept government will close down factories and throw workers out of work during an economic slowdown.

 

 

regarding excuses, I did mention that it is poor argument using "What if" scenarios. Deal with reality!

And if the economy is down, that means that the government has less ability to bail out an unsustainable industry.  You do know that Guysuco's situation has become so dire that it cannot pay its suppliers!  In addition it is jeopardizing its own employees with its inability to pay into NIS, and into the pension schemes.

Guyana is not the USA, which can print $$$. 

Caribny, great, at least your rhetorics are not as wild as before but you are drawing some assumptions from limited or no data and you make wild assertions

First, where did I mention that I was a supporter of Maduro, Chavez or for anyone in Venezuela? I mentioned that in spite of serious challenges in their economy, they continued the oil deal and the rice deal, that in my opinion the rice deal file was mishandled by the coalition, that many countries that have disagreements continue to do business and have other interaction, (what is called Mutual Self Interest)

to move from what I posted and used in my argument to a suggestion that encouraging the Venezuelans to iinvade Guyana is faulty logic. This is the same logic that you have been using against anyone who criticizes the mishandling of the relationship.

Second, please show me a post where I totally and unconditionally supported the PPP or the AFC  But you want to again use poor logic. As I noted before, not because someone criticizes the coalition that it makes that a person a supporter of the PPP or any other opposition party in Guyana. This is sophomoric!  

There are serious problems with the Guyanese economy. These problems started at Guyana's insertion  into the global economy and continue to this day. The British rule deepened those problems, and neither the PNC or the PPP/C administrations have changed the basic structure of the economy. Does this mean that they did not try? Yes, they tried in their own ways. On a previous thread, I pointed to the unidimensional, unicausal and unilinear basis of arguments that are made by many here when they talk about economic development. People seem to be addicted to the type of analysis that is analogous to the 10 second clip on the news. We need to deepen the analysis, look at intentions, input factors, decision- making matrices and relative weights of   those factors, etc. and results both economic and social, short term and long term. Please go back and read my posts (other threads) on the Guyanese economy It is not so simplistic as you think. 

Third, it does not secessarily follow that because we are a small economy and the economy is down that we cannot afford to bail out an industry. This again points to your lack of understanding of some of the basic precepts of economics, economic policy formulation and resource allocation. 

I have to go so cannot continue this discussion. The main points I want to make in all of this is that no one or party is above criticism or failure, that faulty logic, assumptions, and analytical processes leads to faulty conclusions, that wild rhetorics and "shouting and ranting" does not make you correct or deter me. It is possible to learn from your critics and mistakes. 

Zed posted:

Caribny, great, at least your rhetorics are not as wild as before but you are drawing some assumptions from limited or no data and you make wild assertions

First, where did I mention that I was a supporter of Maduro, Chavez or for anyone in Venezuela? I mentioned that in spite of serious challenges in their economy, they continued the oil deal and the rice deal, that in my opinion the rice deal file was mishandled by the coalition, that many countries that have disagreements continue to do business and have other interaction, (what is called Mutual Self Interest)

to move from what I posted and used in my argument to a suggestion that encouraging the Venezuelans to iinvade Guyana is faulty logic. This is the same logic that you have been using against anyone who criticizes the mishandling of the relationship.

 

Second, please show me a post where I totally and unconditionally supported the PPP or the AFC  But you want to again use poor logic. As I noted before, not because someone criticizes the coalition that it makes that a person a supporter of the PPP or any other opposition party in Guyana. This is sophomoric!  

 

There are serious problems with the Guyanese economy. These problems started at Guyana's insertion  into the global economy and continue to this day. The British rule deepened those problems, and neither the PNC or the PPP/C administrations have changed the basic structure of the economy. Does this mean that they did not try? Yes, they tried in their own ways. On a previous thread, I pointed to the unidimensional, unicausal and unilinear basis of arguments that are made by many here when they talk about economic development. People seem to be addicted to the type of analysis that is analogous to the 10 second clip on the news. We need to deepen the analysis, look at intentions, input factors, decision- making matrices and relative weights of   those factors, etc. and results both economic and social, short term and long term. Please go back and read my posts (other threads) on the Guyanese economy It is not so simplistic as you think. 

 

Third, it does not secessarily follow that because we are a small economy and the economy is down that we cannot afford to bail out an industry. This again points to your lack of understanding of some of the basic precepts of economics, economic policy formulation and resource allocation. 

I have to go so cannot continue this discussion. The main points I want to make in all of this is that no one or party is above criticism or failure, that faulty logic, assumptions, and analytical processes leads to faulty conclusions, that wild rhetorics and "shouting and ranting" does not make you correct or deter me. It is possible to learn from your critics and mistakes. 

When oil prices tumbled to under $50 a gallon Venezuela fell into a tail spin, with food riots in the streets.  This is why those who formerly supported Chavez voted against Maduro in the past legislative elections.  No democratic govt can refuse to respond to a populace which has beenm driven to riot against a gov't which it had formerly supported!

It is clear that a model based on sourcing rice from some where other than the cheapest viable source was not going to be sustainable. In fact Venezuela had already indicated to Guyana that it was going to begin shifting to Uruguay. 

Indeed its only a matter of time before the new anti Maduro legislature unravel the whole Petro Caribe deal., the Guyana rice being an integral part of it.

Your "support" for the PPP is indicative by the fact that you blame the coalition gov't for factors which are due to the PPP. 

You can blame APNU AFC for not developing a clear economic plan to transform Guyana. 

You can blame them for extremely poor media relations, and lack of transparency, and increasing evidence of poor governance. 

You can certainly blame them for beginning to show signs that they will be as corrupt as the PPP was.

What you CANNOT blame them is for closing down loss making operations of Guysuco.  This company is technically bankrupt, has swallowed US$500 million in gov't bailouts over the past 10 years. Yet still owes suppliers, the NIS, and the pension plan of its employees. It struggles to meet payroll, surely a sign of the fact that the very survival of this entity is bleak.   This is the mess that the PPP left, and to ignore this fact is dishonest.

To expect the coalition gov't in 11 months to unravel what the PPP didn't in 23 years is dishonest.  In fact the EU gave millions that was to be used to assist in the transformation of Guyana AWAY from sugar.  Jagdeo ARROGANTLY used this to EXPAND sugar, even against the advice of almost every one in Guyana, aside from the sugar workers of course.

Look at almost every other CARICOM nation, and they have moved beyond the "plantation economy" which the British left.  Why not Guyana?

Guyana CANNOT afford to sink tens of millions of $ to under write a loss making industry. 

In fact ultimately the workers will suffer when they realize that their NIS benefits are at risk, and their pension benefits insolvent!  Indeed the very viability of companies which do business with Guysuco becomes a question, as Guysuco continues to owe them.

Zed posted:

allocation. 

 The main points I want to make in all of this is that no one or party is above criticism or failure, that faulty logic, assumptions, and analytical processes leads to faulty conclusions, that wild rhetorics and "shouting and ranting" does not make you correct or deter me. It is possible to learn from your critics and mistakes. 

You need to follow your own advice.  You will admit that I am quite free with criticizing the coalition gov't.

You need to admit that the PPP left them in a deep hole, and that they will have to develop strategies to dig Guyana out.  This will involve the closure of estates, and measures to reduce labor costs, this being the largest component of Guysuco's cost structure.