I think Freddy is correct.

Looks like Freddy has dirt on this chap...

"The religious Hindu priest, Aksharananda chipped in too with his own scare tactics in Region Three where he is popular among Hindu folks".

This is the kind of problematic analyses we get when people are only trained in subjective narrative methods.

Nah bhai swami is great fella.

He did throw in some credible figures but his prediction "PPP to lose elections forever" is his personal wish/vendetta probably from raw deal dealt to him by the PPP cabal. 

This is a highly biased analysis...and again, its the Indians who are racists. This guy, Freddie,  is a self hating Indian. He has a personal hard on and obsession for the Swami...for him to say the Swami was racist and they he had such an enormous impact on the voting pattern and voter identification is utterly ridiculousness. 

Focus on Freddy's analysis; he is correct.

Assumed Swami is a racist. Why did he change his name and call himself a Swami?  Please explain.

Why is this problematic.

1.  The PPP, joined by the swami, did wage a political campaigning based on panicking Indians (and Amerindians) about Africans.  They succeeded as their votes increased by 35k over the 2011 results.

2.  The PPP is kissing itself a slow death by a campaign of this type.  APNU AFC will deliver services to these communities over the next 4 years allowing them to gain support.  The Indian population continues to decline, and the mixed population is the fastest growing, with increasing numbers reaching voting age.

So what about what Freddie wrote that is wrong?  I bet you cannot say.

 7,000 more people voted in Berbice compared to 2011.  So the turnout in Berbice was much larger and not 50% as claimed..it was more like 77% based on 2006 registered voters (I don't have later data on registered voters by region).  With migration the registered voters in Berbice could be lower than 2006 hence the percentage turn out could be even higher than 77%. 

Anybody has registered voters by region for 2011 and 2015 that you could send me?  That godie Gecom does not provide any good data.

Hard to get bhai,i was looking for the info,last census

data needed to do a good analysis.

Surujbally and Lowenfield keeping it for themselves.  Gecom is a joke!

I said nothing about turn out because there is no reliable voters list.

In fact my whole thesis is that what ever votes that Moses brought the coalition were swamped by the success of the PPP in panicking the East Indian (maybe also the Amerindian) vote in the prospects of an African dominated government.

The coalition won because of record voter turn out in G/town and in Linden, and quite likely among the African/mixed populations nation wide.  That is where the margin if victory came from.

My focus was on the racist campaign strategy adopted by the PPP.  It will harm them in the long run as Guyana's demographics change.  The swami is racist because he didn't take into account how Indians will fit into Guyana, as their numbers dwindle and their ethnic vote becomes increasingly irrelevant.  

How does dividing Guyana into ethnically based tribes help, Guyana, or even these tribes themselves, as the tribal vote becomes less relevant?  Any one not advocating cross ethnic alliances is part of the problem, and the swami said NOTHING about that.

Be specific! What is wrong that Freddie wrote? Are you insinuating that Freddie is gay? That's a cheap shot. Swamis are known to make mistresses out of widows and their personal masseuses with coconut oil.

GECOM does have lists of registered voters.  The problem is that these lists include many who have died, or who have permanently migrated.

This election saw a record turn out, due to sharply higher numbers of Georgetown and Linden.  This even as the populations are declining.

West Dem also benefitted as that areas is taking in much of the G/town over flow on the West Bank.  The Rupununi is also seeing population growth.  As a result both regions also saw record turn out.

East Berbice is well below its 1997 record, but then the population has also dropped.  As Freddie alluded to, population decrease might well be the reason for this, and not merely diminished voter turn out.

Those who peddled the rant that a winning strategy comes from mobilizing the Indian vote forgot a number of things.

1.  The Indian population is declining.

2.   The Indian population is not monolithic and indeed there is some evidence to suggest that the coalition made massive inroads into the G/town Indians vote.

3.  Blatant racist appeals to panic Indians to vote out of fear of African rule, also panicked the African vote out of fear of what continued political and economic domination of Guyana by Indo elites would mean for them.  The result was that a cohort which had stopped voting, young poor African males, not only voted in large numbers, but also ensured that others did so was well by early morning.

4.  The ethnically exclusive nature of much of the Indo elite, allows them to ignore the African/mixed population.  Let us hope that they learned their lesson this time.

Are you Freddie?  Why use "I"

Anyway here is what was stated in the article:

Secondly, Berbice will prove to be the PPP’s biggest problem in 2020. There is talk throughout political society in Guyana that Berbicians as they did in 2011, stayed home in 2015. There was a turnout just above the fifty percent mark. But there is a big but. Were those absentees living in Guyana in May 2015? Is it possible that the absentees are among the two dozen East Indians who leave Guyana daily for Canada, US and Trinidad?

From a thread yesterday:

I think all the regions had record turnout.  The biggest increases for the coalition were in regions 4, 10, and 3 in that order.  The biggest increases for the PPP were in regions 4, 6, and 3 in that order.  Looks like the AFC held it votes in region 6 and 5 which made a lot of difference.  Bottom line without the coalition. PPP would have been in power again under another minority government.

So caribny from the above post Region 3 helped the coalition a lot also.

yep they did

Freddie made much of turn out and how it didn't increase.  I did NOT make any mention of turn out because I doubt that the pool of voters is 570k.

What I do know is that there was a RECORD turn out in 2015.  Higher even than the previous record of 408k in 1997.

Do you dispute that the implosion of the  East Berbice population does explain much about the PPP defeat?  In 1997 70,000 voted.  In 2015 61,600 did.  Given that the PPP gets 2/3 of the East Berbice, just that alone explains their margin of defeat.

The PPP tends to think that it will win, based on region 6, maybe because this is the most densely Indian part of Guyana, once one excludes New Amsterdam.  Big MISTAKE!

You will note that for every vote that the coalition got the PPP won 2. So they held their margin there.

In addition the PPP incremental increase in votes was HIGHER than APNU AFC, because they used the alignment of Moses with the dreaded African population to scare out Indians (and maybe Amerindians).  It was reported that the PPP told Amerindians that if APNU wins that "all straight haired people will be attacked".

Note also that Region 3 is around 35% African/mixed, so why the assumption that all the increased votes were for the AFC.

This is the problem with so many Indians.  They just refuse to admit that Guyana is multi ethnic and that the African/mixed component is a MAJOR part of it.  If there was not record voter turn out in G/town and Linden the PPP WOULD HAVE WON!

I don't disagree with what you are saying here.  Yes there seem to be an "implosion" of the voter base in Berbice.  However, 7,000 more voted there than in the last election and the PPP got nearly all the new votes.  This tells me that the election was still race-based.  But with the implosion in Berbice the PPP cannot rely on just race alone to give them a victory.

Yaaaaaaawwwn. I am going for a nap. Regions and 11 & 12 should be included next election.

Buddy the PPP would have won if there was no COALITION, understand that?  Nobody said all the increase in Region 3 was for AFC...where did you see that argument?

The thrust of Freddie's article is that the PPP had a raced based election in order to panic the Indian vote, and that this ensured that a record African/mixed showed up.

The fact that he got confused by the list of registered voters is beside the point.  The turn out appeared low as the list is most inaccurate in places where there has been high migration.  Many listed no longer live in Guyana, and Freddie made note of that.

The main take away is that the PPP lost the election based on relying on a group which is fleeing Guyana.

That may or may not have been your assumption, but there are some Moses cultists who believe that they were the primary reason for the coalition victory.

They need to be reminded that they were PART of the reason, but that the major reason for victory was the EXTREMELY successful APNU "get out the vote" strategy in G/town and Linden, where the racist screams of the swami and the PPP in general reminded these folks why the PPP had to GO!

Yes I agree that the pull of APNU was stronger than that of the AFC in 2015.  Africans were highly motivated after the coalition because they saw a chance to defeat the PPP.

just pap. What makes Freddie a serious analyst. In many other countries, he would be driving  a cab, doing some menial job or be unemployed. He does not have a history of scholarship. The only  valid analysis of the election results will have to await the publication of the census. Until then, these are just guesses in the disguise of educated discourse.

Given that the population doesn't provide ethnic data based on age I do not know what you expect the census to reveal aside from what we already know.

How can you explain the 70% increase in the mixed population since 1991, aside from an understanding that a large % of this group are too young to vote.  Given that over 40% of the Guyana population is under voting age, it does suggest that the ethnic demographics of the adult population will be most likely radically different from those under 18.

We already have a regional population break down, so know that the population of Region 6 continues to plummet.  Aside from the interior, the only regions showing population growth are 3 and 4.  Georgetown's population is also dropping.

I agree that it was the coalition with the AFC that gave the Afro Guyanese the impetus to come out in the numbers that they did. It was "the opportunity" to oust the PPP, otherwise they might have been less keen as to whether to come out and vote as they did.

This election solidified the fact that elections in Guyana are race based and the notion of broad based voting is still a long way off. A lot has to happen, not only in the political arena, but on the ground before the two races will feel secure in voting for broad based parties. We still do not have one as yet. Time will tell whether the coalition will morph into one or come next election, disintegrate. A lot will depend on the former PNC members in the AFC as to whether they maintain the broad based thrust that they are desperately trying to foster, or whether the taste of victory will drive them into the arms of APNU.

With respect to Freddie, he can argue as much as possible with himself, but the undeniable fact is that the AFC delivered the elections for the coalition. As I mentioned before it was the AFC collating with APNU that gave additional life to the Afro Guyanese voters. He is wrong in saying that African Guyanese decided that they were not going to live a minute longer with the PPP Government. They wanted to do so in every election since 1992; this time the AFC gave them the opportunity to do so. If anything, it was the disenchanted PPP voters who, fed up with the shenanigans of the party and threw their lot behind the AFC, that made the difference. Anything PPP is poisonous to Freddie; he simply must downplay the contribution of AFC to the results in order promote the notion of waning support for the PPP. Freddie is a good analyst, and must not be dismissed. Some of his points are valid, but I agree that his Guyana political thrust has largely been based on a personal vendetta against the PPP and its supporters.

He has consistently tried to make the point that East Indians are less Nationalistic than Afro Guyanese. This accounts for them consistently voting for the PPP, as it is an Indian party, and have been cueing up to leave for foreign shores. He never applies the same analysis to the Afro Guyanese despite the same voting patterns, and fails to mention that migration is high among them as well, though less that East Indian migration. He fail to mention that should the US open its immigration doors, Georgetown would empty in a flash.

Having said all of that, the fact remains that the PPP forgot the ideals promoted by Cheddi Jagan, got consumed by personal greed, and ambition and consequently ran off the rails. Even its supporters must have wanted to see things turn around, and an end to the corruption, nepotism and ineptitude that became the hallmark of its later years in power. So we have to give this new government a chance to show what it can do for the people of Guyana. The new President is saying all the right things now, all new leaders do; let us hope and pray that he is a man of his word and that the people of Guyana will be better off for it. They need a break!! 

Good post Franky.

This is exactly what I said on another thread in response to Cariboohooohoo

No coalition and there would not be what Freddie calls the tsunami of black voters.

The PPP got almost 50% of the votes by themselves and according to you almost all Amerindians (small) and Indians (because of Jagdeo's racist rant). That tells me that Indians don't trust the PNC, period. Don't apologize and have no coalition and the APNU continues the 40% to 42 % range.

???

???

who "apologize[d]"?

Kari it could have been an Indo dog running looking like he might split the Indo vote. That would have motivated the African vote.  The specifics didn't matter.  In fact if the AFC ran separately they might well have also voted, expecting a PNC plurality gov't.

75% of the additional votes which were generated from regions 2,3,5 and 6 went to the PPP.  Where did these votes come from?  What was the motivation behind these votes?  Would this vote have come about but for fear of the return of the PNC, because of "traitors" like Nagamootoo. 

So where is this winning Moses magic vote?  He did a good job in turning out ADDITIONAL PPP votes, INCREASING their lead in their core areas.

It was very heavy turn out in G/town and in Linden which offset this tsunami, as Kissoon said.

But note that the PPP INCREASED its votes by 35k.  AND reduced its margin of defeat by 50%.  They did well in turning out their vote.  But that G/town and Linden tsunami did BETTER!

Based on the fact that the PPP won 75% of the incremental votes in these PPP strongholds I will suggest that this campaign was hugely successfuln if its goal was to mobilize the Indian vote.  It definitely mobilized the Indian  vote, which Moses was unable to split..

This election was about race  I challenge you to prove otherwise, and please don't embarrass yourself by squealing that the PPP attracted more blacks and mixed people to vote for them.

Of course it was race.....and AFC help!

APNU got its voters out.  If they did not the PPP would have won.  Kari can jump up and down like a chimp on crack, but that doesn't change that fact.

It was the massive vote in PNC strongholds which offset the fact that Moses was unable to split the PPP vote.   The PPP INCREASED its winning margins in its core 2,3, 5 and 6 regions by 13,000 votes. 

In addition they did a good job in winning the Amerindian vote,   They increased their winning margins over the combined APNU AFC by 4,000 votes in Regions 1,8,9, significantly increasing their vote in all, including Region 8, where they obtained 90% of the incremental increase in votes, losing only by a few.

So why did the PPP lose?  Because the coalition crushed them in the PNC strongholds in Regions 4, 7 and 10. 

Now we can debate about the motivations behind the high turn out in PNC areas.  But what is not up to debate is, without this massive turn out the PPP would have won. 

What ever increased votes that Moses might have generated were swamped by a tsunami of PPP voters frightened at the prospect of African rule due to a "traitor" like Moses.

Moses did NOT split the Indian vote.  He unintentionally galvanized it AGAINST him, because he was unable to defend himself against the racist campaign which the PPP waged against him.

THERE IS NOTHING MUCH TO ANALYZE!

IN 2011: APNU + AFC = 51.1% (40.8% + 10.3%)

IN 2015: APNU + AFC = 50.3%

* The COALITION received 0.8% less in 2015 than they did when they were separate parties in 2011. But in both years they surpassed 50%.

BOTTOM LINE:

* The victory was extremely slim in percentage terms---but a victory nevertheless.

GOING FORWARD:

* The EXPECTATIONS are extremely high for the COALITION by their supporters.

* As corrupt and unscrupulous the PPP were---they still received 49.1% of the votes in 2015----higher than the 48.6% they received in 2011.

BOTTOM LINE:

* In 2020 the COALITION will have a RECORD that the Guyana electorate will be able to judge them by.  If the HIGH EXPECTATIONS for the PNC/AFC are not met---then the PPP will waltz back into office.

Rev

Which region did the PPP get its biggest increase from 2011 in? Region 4, what you gat to say bout dat?