I never said there was....but it is clear if you look at the 2002 census breakdown, it matches up closely with the electorate.  The PPP never got more than 3% of the black vote. If the turnout is high, it is another burden for the PPP. 120K people did not vote the last time and these were mainly from APNU regions.

Did you factor a mass return of those Indian votes which the AFC got in 2011 but could not get in 2006? I think most of that isn't going to follow Moses to APNU.

How does this help the APNU?

As I said, it is completely on racial stats and nothing else. I am not certain that there is any return to the fold of PPP sheep of those poached by the AFC.  I am even hopeful they will steal more!

They can sell the idea that we can rely on western aid and not on the usurious chinese AID that comes with no potential for it ever being forgiven. Further, Chinese aid is il lieu of other opportunity to them ie opening up the market to chinese goods and pirate multinationals.

How?  Indians are maybe 47% of the voters when we adjust for age and voting behavior.  The African and mixed vote is clearly less than that, and Amerindians don't really vote, other than those who do so at the direction of the tochao.

Where did you get this 47% number from? 

The census does NOT match up to the voter base.

In 1991 mixed people were 12%, In 2002 they reached 17%.  Mixed people will migrate at the same rates as blacks, where the population remains even.  So that suggests that the mixed population is much younger than the black or the Indian, and many cannot vote, and even those now able to are quite likely not registered as registration rates among the under 30 group is abysmal.

I did the calculation in one of my posts go look at it.

But to summarize Lindeners are only 75% as likely to vote as people in Region 5 and people in Region 9 only 60% as likely to.

We also know that in the Corbin era the whole voter mobilization mechanisms collapsed and that has severely impacted the PNC. The PPP has always ensured that their people were registered.

So when one factors that the Indian population is older than the mixed and Amerindian populations, so will be more heavily represented in the voting age populations. And the Indians are more likely to register and vote than are Africans, then they definitely account for a higher % of the voting population (people of voting age who vote) than they are in the overall.

So I suggest that folks stop screaming halleluiah because if the Indians were only 40% of the voters APNU would have won the last election as they dominate the African and mixed vote.

Your 47% - 50% calculation is simply speculation. I don't see anything based on facts. D_G'esque if you ask me and you know where he got his 60% from the last time.

  The ABC nations the WB, the IMF and the IDB have been hugely helpful to the PPP.  Don't know why you think that is a selling platform. 

Guyana benefits way more from these entities than just about any other CARICOM nation, aside from Haiti.

In any case Guyanese who travel elsewhere in the Caribbean know that the Chinese invasion isn't merely a Guyana phenomenon.  The joke is that Suriname should now be renamed Chinese Suriname, and there is huge evidence that the Chinese are very much involved in Trinidad.  It is a T&T based Chinese company which built Marriott and the airport is being built by a company which is heavily involved in Jamaica.

So what numbers do you have, and don't say 40% because then it will be clear that the PPP has massive support from non Indians and so they will win the election by scaring back 5,000 Nagamootoo supporters back to them.

I don't have any numbers because I haven't seen any being published but I surely won't go pulling some out of my ass to try and boost my argument.

There are no numbers published so one must use what one knows about Guyana and then offer an opinion.

Let me repeat.

1.  The mixed population increased rapidly after 1991.  Only the older ones in that age cohort will be old enough to vote, and even those older ones are still within that age group where they usually don't vote.  Mixed voters will account for less than do mixed people in the overall population.

2.  It is a known fact that Amerindians are still at the demographic stage where they have higher birth rates than do other Guyanese, so again Amerindians will be less represented among voters than in the population at large.

3.  The very logistics of the remote regions where Amerindians live makes getting to the polling stations hard, and as many Amerindians have only a weak identification with the state, and view coastlanders as abusive its likely that many don't register or vote.  Additional reason why Amerindians are under represented.

4.  Under Corbin the PNC got sloppy and in fact often threatened to boycott elections, so they spent scant attention to ensuring that their base votes.  So while Africans have the same age distribution as do Indians (both groups being older than the average Guyanese) they are less likely to be registered. Urban dwellers have traditional been less interested in voting in Guyana than those in the rural areas.  So Africans will be slightly under represented in the voting pool.

So argue as you wish as to what % of voters Indians are, but its not the 40% that they represent in the population at large.

I assume Amerindians at 6%, Africans at around 30%, mixed at 15%, "others" at 1%, leaving Indians at 48%.   Amerindians being the most under represented in the voting group, and Indians over represented, with Africans even (their under representation in registration and voting offset by being older than average) and mixed voters also under represented.

Now develop your own hypothesis if you believe that mine is faulty.

Ironically your argument is best boosted by assuming a high Indian representation as this will explain why the PPP has won the majority of the votes until 2011, when they only barely lost by 5,000 votes.

Assume that Indians are only 40% and then you will have to explain why the PPP is doing so well among non Indians, and why the AFC and APNU cannot capture those voters.

No one knows what percentages will show up on elections day to vote so stop wasting my time with stupid numbers.

You don't have a clue about whose base is energized and which one might be disillusioned.

The only numbers we know are the ones above which someone said are from the census about the general population. Do you know if those numbers are really correct since we don't have an official source? The PPP never published them so they obviously have something to hide. Any others are what you assume and we know what happens whenever we assume. Ask DG about his 60% assumptions from 2011 and how close they were to the final numbers. 

The pollsters are giving the PPP a slight majority.

The People knows that the merger only took place to get rid of the PPP.

Should they win they will destroy everything that the PPP built.

All the projects will be scrapped and the money will be used to restart National service according to Corbin.

Heads will be rolled and replaced by PNC members.

Happy Family Day. Like you start the celebrations early.

You all do not be stupid, the PPP will get about 41-45% in the next elections.

DO not count these people OUT.

the key is keeping opportunities for PPP rigging to a minimum

a task force liaising with GECOM must be established pronto

I would like to get the actual release. I would not depend on KishanB.

The PPP has not build a damn. What they built is in the hands of their cronies. Any increased in wealth is to their friends and family. The majority are still destitute, making 3500 a year on average and living practically in a north American bread basket. It means they are catching their ass. Any of you who look to the welfare of your family knows that. Without your support they starve. 

BTW, there is no productive industry. Despite its increased protective capacity rice is being pimped to supply oil to the PPP cabal at the expense of those whose money they use in their ponzy scheme.

Imagine what will happen when Venezuela collapse as it is on the brink. If the PNC wins and in that situation Indians will inevitably shout it is the black mans cause!

The Crooked PPP will not release it. The only reason for that is the want to deny the opposition the data that would be helpful to tailor a campaign. Imagine that happening here where one cannot get access to census data! It is there in the statistic department. It can be released tomorrow. This regime did not pay for it and it is not their private property. This is the most nasty, vindictive and corrupt regime one can imagine. The quicker we see the back of them the better it would be for us.

On a serious note I think the numbers above are plausible. I think the number of Chinese could be a bit high. Last 2011 election AFC had a fairy robust Chinese strategy. I am sure they could put together their old strategy.

They actually voted alike in 2011. You are pulling numbers out of a hat.

Apparently polling is not necessary in a place like Guyana.

Lemme tek dis opportunity to restate my earlier post now that I have some polling numbers to back am up.

Numero 1 - Likely:

PPP 33 Seats

Opposition 32

Numero 2 -Possible:

PPP 34 Seats

Opposition 31

Spoke to few of my OP contacts yesterday, PPP confident of Numero 2.

OP contact or Uncle ANIL Nandolala.  

Was he drunk when he expressed such confidence. 

It's May 1st chap and the Coalition is at 45%. In past Guyanese experience, non-PPP non-PNC parties usually over perform in polls leading up to Election Day. I see no evidence of this phenomenon at present. I see the PPP under-performing as per usual. But I also see the the electorate's anti-PPP Indians dead set against the Coalition.

At this time in the 2001 campaign, ROAR who was explicitly not threatening to oust the PPP from the Presidency was polling in excess of seven Indian seats and barely ended up with 1 Indian seat on Election Day. ROAR even went so far as to publicly promise that a vote for ROAR will still keep the PPP in Government. ROAR campaigned as PPP+ROAR.

In Guyana, you must poll higher support among Indian voters in the run up to the election because on Election Day a huge chunk of that support will go "home" to the PPP if they suspect that they're gonna cause the PPP to be totally removed from Government.

In Guyana, we do not have true "swing" voters among Indians. We have anti-PPP Indians who want to punish the PPP but not oust them from office to install the PNC. They may go to a third party as they did in 2011 but they ain't goin PNC. That's a cold hard fact. Forget that one at your own peril.

We're in the phase of the Campaign where anti-PPP voters start to grudgingly defect back to the PPP. The problem here is that they didn't even move to the Coalition in the first place. And now it's easier to drag themselves back to the PPP.

Hey hey hey

Did you talk your pills this morning since you seem to be smoking fowl dung this morning and spewing cow shyte at the same time.

Come on Shyster, up your game.  Let us get some more analystics from you and stop this nonsense of give us some Visnu Bisrum numbers.

Moses Cork Duck.

You are correct, the DUCK cork get DUCKED by Moses

Ayuh mad rass ayuh down 6% in the polls and ayuh share de victory duck curry already?

10 days and 6% behind. Chop chop!

I don't know how many times I have to tell you that the latest census numbers are irrelevant.  The mixed population has increased by 70% since 1991.  Obviously the vast majority of this increased mixed population are minors, or are very young adults.  Very young adults worldwide tend to have low voter turnout.

I will be interested in hearing from you some theory, other than increased miscegenation, which will account for a 70% increase in the mixed population since 1991.

The demographics of the population above 25 is different from the population below 18.  The population above 25 consists disproportionately of Africans and Indians who are older because they were born in a era where there was less miscegenation.  With increased miscegenation over the past 20-25 years the younger population is more mixed.

So the fact that the Indian population is now only 40% doesn't mean that the voting age and registered population is only 40%.  One must be of voting age, and one must be on the voting list, and one must have access to the polling station in order to vote.  Likely that many of the 18-25 fail the last two tests because they are less mature, and therefore less likely to ensure that they qualify.

You yourself said that the mixed vote did more good for the PPP than does the Amerindian vote.  Even though 12% of the population lives in Regions 1,7-9 it only provided 6% of the votes.  Clearly voter turnout in the interior is about 50% of what it is on the coast.

Two obvious reasons.  The first being that many Amerindians are apathetic about the whole process and don't see the relevance to their lives.  And also the primitive transportation in the interior renders getting to the polls to be more difficult. Clearly, being apathetic, many will not bother.

So Nagamootoo has to split the PPP vote (the PPP doesn't only depend on Indians as it has the power to dole out soup)  and Granger has to get more young males out to vote.

I am not sure how many incremental votes the interior will offer, and whether it will account for more than one seat.

There hasn't been much about Mark Benschop recently.  Unless he has loud and fiery campaigns he isn't going to get his base of alienated young urban males to vote for him.

So at this point I don't see IP being a factor.  Maybe there were conversations with APNU and Benschop realized that if the PPP wins because he bled votes from APNU that he would be punished in any LGE elections that he might contest in.  Plus in parliament he would need allies.  The PPP will not work with him, nor will APNU AFC if he costs them victory.

Mark has run a lackluster campaign. Probably not a bad idea anyways. For Mark that is.

It seems that the AFC is losing this election all by themselves and Mark will not be a factor even if he takes 1 APNU seat which is looking increasingly unlikely with each passing day.

Campaigns matter. Mark didn't campaign so he ain't gettin no seat.

Regardless, APNU has to make a huge push to increase its base turnout because AFC looks good for only like 4 seats. Moses ain't quite the magician we were told he was.

1.  What will happen if the coalition gets 31 seats, allowing the PPP to win? APNU will know where the votes came from and, even if Granger doesn't do it, I can well see other PNC activists demanding to know why Nagamootoo (an ex PPP man) should get 12 seats if he didn't contribute to a victory. 

It wouldn't matter if the AFC leaves APNU in a huff if APNU just allows them 5 seats as a PPP majority gov't will not allow the opposition any scope for involvement.

The next issue will be the state of the AFC, which is a de facto Indo party II, if it couldn't bring in enough Indo votes to allow victory.  Will there be open strife between the "old" AFC and the PPP exiles, who have taken over the party?  Any notion that the AFC will emerge as a powerful 3rd force would pretty much be shot.

Its amazing all sorts of bad blood, that remains hidden in the spirit of a euphoric victory, will be exposed if there is defeat.

2.  I suspect that Granger did return Benschop's phone calls and reminded him that the lion's share of the PNC constituency will remain with them.  If that constituency thinks that it is Benschop who deprived APNU of a seat or two, allowing a PPP win, he will be punished in the polls in the LGE and his political life ended.  Granger might also know a few things about Mark, that Mark might want private.  Like where he has all this money from.