Cobra posted:

Donald Trump was right all along when he said to deport all the illegals, suspend immigration from all terrorist sponsored States and monitor the ones living here legally. You just don't know who is who. People come to America for freedom and a good life that they can't get in their own country.  Yet they appease radical ideology to destroy America. America needs a new beginning and Donald Trump is the man that will make the difficult choice. Difficult situation calls for drastic measures.

Well Said.

Watching a bit of John Oliver as he deals with the trump promised wall and thought  struck  me -- could trump have been watching too much "Colony"? Is that where the idea of the wall comes from or is he just in awe of the Great Wall of China? Is China so much on his mind? 

susan posted:

Watching a bit of John Oliver as he deals with the trump promised wall and thought  struck  me -- could trump have been watching too much "Colony"?

Trump needs a colonoscopy to clear his brains.

Just for the record, there is a guy living in the street next to mine. He has a 2 car garage and has these four huge flags that look like a drape from one wall to the other. Those flags are, a US one, a Florida one, a Confederate one and get this, one with the word REDNECK written in very large prints across it.   

Many use the confederate flag as sort of showing you are a rebel against "the man". I remember having a confederate flag armless tshirt but would never go for what the flag actually represented.

Redneck is another story hehehe

cain posted:

Many use the confederate flag as sort of showing you are a rebel against "the man". I remember having a confederate flag armless tshirt but would never go for what the flag actually represented.

Redneck is another story hehehe

Although I am willing to believe that Redneck women can be fun to be around.

baseman posted:

caribny posted:

 

There will be a wall, at least partial, we will go in and destroy ISIS, we will tip the balance to retain/return some manufacturing here.  Trump has set a directional agenda.

 

The last ignorant cowboy, who jumped into a region that he didn't understand, created ISIS.  Iraq was NOT  a security risk for the USA under Saddam.  Now it is a nest packed with assorted terrorists.

Trump has not told us how he will return manufacturing jobs back to the USA.  There is "in sourcing" occurring, but unless one is involved at some level in robotics, you aren't going to get a job.

Unless Trump plans to become a communist, just screaming demands isn't going to determine what corporations do.  Make the USA less attractive and they will OUTSOURCE even more jobs.  Even liberal economists say this.

Increased tariffs on imports leads to trade war.  US exports, already under pressure by global stagnation, and a strong US dollar, will be impacted when countries also place tariffs against US products.

US corporations will then be forced to locate production in these markets in order to compete with other manufacturers.  In addition Boeing will lose orders to Airbus.  Boeing is one of the US' largest exporters.

Trump is screaming, and hasn't done any serious work to address this problem.

yuji22 posted:

Cobra posted:

Donald Trump was right all along when he said to deport all the illegals, suspend immigration from all terrorist sponsored States and monitor the ones living here legally. You just don't know who is who. People come to America for freedom and a good life that they can't get in their own country.  Yet they appease radical ideology to destroy America. America needs a new beginning and Donald Trump is the man that will make the difficult choice. Difficult situation calls for drastic measures.

Well Said.

Typical brown bai KKK braying. Totally empty and ignorant.

baseman posted:

 

Obamacare IS a mess!!!

!!

And what do the GOP suggest.

Oh yes. End Obamacare so insurance companies will once again refuse to insure sick people, and place lifetime limits on claims paid.

Remove the subsidy and so many middle class people will no longer have access to health insurance.

Remove oversight over how these products are designed so pregnant women discover when they get their bill that their hospital bills weren't covered.  All written in fine print, that the average person doesn't understand.

Remove the ability of corporations to deduct health insurance premiums that they pay on behalf of their employees, so companies stop offering this benefit.

You know Obamacare isn't perfect, but its share better than the madness the GOP are talking about.

Guess who will suffer if Obamacare ends.  The same Trump goons who don't have $2k per month to buy insurance for their families.

Obviously you live in Canada, so clearly have no idea about paying for healthcare in the USA.

baseman, Hillary indeed has a deficit when it comes to the general elections' voters trust factor. Trump will be the GOP nominee in the November - and I was wrong about his chances early in the Primary season. Trump's strength is playing to the US voters' fears.

The good thing about Trump's strength is that a minority of voters will act on his clarion call about border protection, national security in the face of radial Arab terrorists who co-opt Islam, and free trade and jobs. He is totally wrong on all those but people do not care if his solutions will work only on Mars or Jupiter - it is just that he sounds good on anger.

Hillary's strengths are obvious - her public service and successes in the political arena. She also has what the Donald does not have - her party's unity. And that's an important point. When it comes to her weakness, wavering Democratic voters will eventually look across at her opponent and say - what??!!

What's important are the numbers - specifically the Electoral College seats. Can you envision Trump winning these huge States - California, New York, Illinois and Florida? The reality is in the answer to that question.

Kari posted:

 

Hillary's strengths are obvious -

What's important are the numbers - specifically the Electoral College seats. Can you envision Trump winning these huge States - California, New York, Illinois and Florida? The reality is in the answer to that question.

 

Hillary has a major white man problem. Its also unknown how enthusiastic the Democratic base is.  She isn't charismatic.  She isn't black, so will not benefit from the "ethnic loyalty" factor that Obama got.  The Democratic base has NOT recovered from the Great Recession, so aren't too happy now.

While Hillary SHOULD win, I will not guarantee that she will.  There is hostility from certain parts of the Bernie base, who might stay home, or do something stupid like voting for the Greens.

Hillary has much work to do.  She is brilliant and understands the problems and the solutions.  She isn't a media savvy politician to an electorate who expect facile answers without nuance.  Let us see how she gets passed that.

It might shock you to know how many think that "we will win so often, that we will get tired of winning" appeals to many.  This to an electorate which has been fed sound bites since the Reagan era.

baseman posted:

 

And BTW, I don't think most Muslims are terrorists or even condone it. 

Most mass murderers on educational facilities or places of employment are white men.

Should we ban all white men under 30, who seem quiet and sad, from entering these places?

Well this is what you wish with Muslims, who will be banned from even Guyana!

baseman posted:

 

If you don't do it, then US carpet bombing will have to do it, and it don't matter if we need to do it every 10 or so years for the next century!

As if Bush didn't do enough to create our current Middle East problems, you wish to compound it by killing kids on their way to school!

caribny posted:

Kari posted:

 

Hillary's strengths are obvious -

What's important are the numbers - specifically the Electoral College seats. Can you envision Trump winning these huge States - California, New York, Illinois and Florida? The reality is in the answer to that question.

 

Hillary has a major white man problem. Its also unknown how enthusiastic the Democratic base is.  She isn't charismatic.  She isn't black, so will not benefit from the "ethnic loyalty" factor that Obama got.  The Democratic base has NOT recovered from the Great Recession, so aren't too happy now.

While Hillary SHOULD win, I will not guarantee that she will.  There is hostility from certain parts of the Bernie base, who might stay home, or do something stupid like voting for the Greens.

Hillary has much work to do.  She is brilliant and understands the problems and the solutions.  She isn't a media savvy politician to an electorate who expect facile answers without nuance.  Let us see how she gets passed that.

It might shock you to know how many think that "we will win so often, that we will get tired of winning" appeals to many.  This to an electorate which has been fed sound bites since the Reagan era.

Hillary is a weak campaigner, period. But I have to report these excerpts from the New York times in an article last Monday "Why Sanders Trails Clinton Among Minority Voters", on why Sanders trail Hillary so badly among minorities; and let them speak for Hillary and what Obama has meant for minorities.

==============================================One important reason for this may be that African-Americans have experienced somewhat more favorable economic trends in recent years. While still worse off than whites, African-Americans have seen their jobless rate fall a little further than whites have, relative to a prerecession average. Furthermore, the decline has been faster for African-Americans in the last year.

The economist Robert J. Shapiro recently measured the income growth that people experience as they age. He found that, on average in 2013 and 2014 (the most recent data available), incomes for blacks in their 30s, 40s and 50s grew more rapidly than for whites in the same age group. Older people, who strongly support Mrs. Clinton, have also seen income gains relative to other groups since the recession.

......................................................

Perhaps a better explanation for Mr. Sanders’s divergent performance is that while African-Americans and white working-class Democrats are experiencing broadly similar economic trends, they interpret them differently.

A New York Times/CBS News poll conducted last week found that African-Americans rated the economy as good by a ratio of about four to one, versus about two to one for white Democrats and an even narrower margin for white Democrats without a college degree. A Times/CBS News poll in December found that, relative to two years earlier, roughly three times as many African-Americans said their family’s financial situation was better as said it was worse, while Democrats without a college degree were almost evenly split on this question.

Geoff Garin, a strategist for Mrs. Clinton’s 2008 campaign who currently polls for Priorities USA Action, a pro-Clinton “super PAC,” posited that for a more economically marginal group like African-Americans, the unemployment rate — which has declined significantly for all racial groups in recent years — carries more importance than growth in incomes and certain assets, which have been slower to recover. For whites, even working-class whites, whose jobless rate is substantially lower than that for African-Americans, the latter took on comparatively more importance.

“The major source of economic anxiety for working-class white men is not whether they have a job tomorrow,” Mr. Garin said, “it’s that they still haven’t had their personal recovery. Their recovery is about assets and income.” For African-Americans, on the other hand, “you don’t take job growth for granted.”

He cited polling data showing that working-class white Democrats were roughly as concerned about inequality as they were about job growth and economic growth, while African-Americans were overwhelmingly concerned about the latter two. It is no surprise, Mr. Garin said, that Mrs. Clinton, who has had a similar emphasis in her campaign, did better among African-Americans, while Mr. Sanders’s emphasis on inequality resonated more with whites.

In a similar vein, there is anecdotal evidence suggesting that African-Americans and Hispanic voters are more likely to use the economy’s recent low point, in 2008 and 2009, as the base line for their judgment than are whites, who may focus on more recent performance, where improvement has been less pronounced.

.....................................................................................................

The Affordable Care Act may be another aspect of President Obama’s economic record that minority voters and working-class whites view differently. “Blacks and Hispanics benefited more from the A.C.A.,” said Simon Rosenberg, president of NDN, a policy and advocacy group. “It was a really dramatic lowering of their uninsured rate, which was obviously material to their economic health and their overall comfort in the world.”

Mr. Minor said that while he received his health care through the Department of Veterans Affairs, many of his friends “had no insurance and no possibility of getting insurance.”

“Obamacare has been a boon to them,” he said.

By contrast, many whites, who were insured at a higher rate than the other groups before the Affordable Care Act took effect, saw the program as detrimental to their interests. “The promise of Obamacare was to make it more affordable for everybody,” said J. J. Price, a firefighter and union member in Roanoke, Va., who voted for Mr. Obama in 2008 but Mitt Romney in 2012. “It’s done nothing but make it more expensive on us, the working class.”

Mrs. Clinton, of course, has been a dogged defender of the Affordable Care Act, while Mr. Sanders has dwelled on the program’s not going far enough. He prefers a single-payer system akin to expanding Medicare for the entire population.

The dynamic on the Affordable Care Act suggests a broader difference when it comes to African-Americans and working-class whites: When Mr. Sanders implicitly criticizes Mr. Obama from the left, white working-class Democrats may see it as advocating for their economic interests, but the claims tend to fall flat with many blacks, among whom the president is still wildly popular.

....................................................................................................

“I don’t think you can discount how important President Obama is,” said Stanley B. Greenberg, a former Clinton White House pollster who recently conducted focus groups with African-American voters in Philadelphia and Cleveland. “Obama and his election and re-election is seen as on a scale of what the civil rights movement achieved.”

He added that Mrs. Clinton, by way of her service in the administration and her eagerness to defend the president’s policies on the campaign trail, “is seen as having a more instinctive identification with Obama.”

baseman posted:

Kari posted:

caribny posted:

Kari posted:

 

Hillary's strengths are obvious -

What's important are the numbers - specifically the Electoral College seats. Can you envision Trump winning these huge States - California, New York, Illinois and Florida? The reality is in the answer to that question.

 

Hillary has a major white man problem. Its also unknown how enthusiastic the Democratic base is.  She isn't charismatic.  She isn't black, so will not benefit from the "ethnic loyalty" factor that Obama got.  The Democratic base has NOT recovered from the Great Recession, so aren't too happy now.

While Hillary SHOULD win, I will not guarantee that she will.  There is hostility from certain parts of the Bernie base, who might stay home, or do something stupid like voting for the Greens.

Hillary has much work to do.  She is brilliant and understands the problems and the solutions.  She isn't a media savvy politician to an electorate who expect facile answers without nuance.  Let us see how she gets passed that.

It might shock you to know how many think that "we will win so often, that we will get tired of winning" appeals to many.  This to an electorate which has been fed sound bites since the Reagan era.

Hillary is a weak campaigner, period. .

 

Hillary is weak, period!!

She is disingenuous and it shows.  Furthermore, she is also suffering the negatives of the destructiveness of Obama to the USA.  There needs to be change, Americans are apprehensive of a 3rd Obama term.  We need a GOP president!!

The woman has one billion dollars to make sure Trump doan win. You can imagine the foreign donors and American Business donors who are supporting this weakling in order to destroy the USA.

I hope Black votes turn away from her in droves.

Her husband had to do one over Reagan free trade agreement. He gave China most favoured nation trading status. With that, American Businesses just retrenched the whole of America. 

Donald Trump makes wild threat to 'spill the beans' on Ted Cruz's wife

Kari posted:

caribny posted:

Kari posted:

 

Hillary's strengths are obvious -

What's important are the numbers - specifically the Electoral College seats. Can you envision Trump winning these huge States - California, New York, Illinois and Florida? The reality is in the answer to that question.

 

Hillary has a major white man problem. Its also unknown how enthusiastic the Democratic base is.  She isn't charismatic.  She isn't black, so will not benefit from the "ethnic loyalty" factor that Obama got.  The Democratic base has NOT recovered from the Great Recession, so aren't too happy now.

While Hillary SHOULD win, I will not guarantee that she will.  There is hostility from certain parts of the Bernie base, who might stay home, or do something stupid like voting for the Greens.

Hillary has much work to do.  She is brilliant and understands the problems and the solutions.  She isn't a media savvy politician to an electorate who expect facile answers without nuance.  Let us see how she gets passed that.

It might shock you to know how many think that "we will win so often, that we will get tired of winning" appeals to many.  This to an electorate which has been fed sound bites since the Reagan era.

Hillary is a weak campaigner, period. But I have to report these excerpts from the New York times in an article last Monday "Why Sanders Trails Clinton Among Minority Voters", on why Sanders trail Hillary so badly among minorities; and let them speak for Hillary and what Obama has meant for minorities.

==============================================One important reason for this may be that African-Americans have experienced somewhat more favorable economic trends in recent years. While still worse off than whites, African-Americans have seen their jobless rate fall a little further than whites have, relative to a prerecession average. Furthermore, the decline has been faster for African-Americans in the last year.

The economist Robert J. Shapiro recently measured the income growth that people experience as they age. He found that, on average in 2013 and 2014 (the most recent data available), incomes for blacks in their 30s, 40s and 50s grew more rapidly than for whites in the same age group. Older people, who strongly support Mrs. Clinton, have also seen income gains relative to other groups since the recession.

......................................................

Perhaps a better explanation for Mr. Sanders’s divergent performance is that while African-Americans and white working-class Democrats are experiencing broadly similar economic trends, they interpret them differently.

A New York Times/CBS News poll conducted last week found that African-Americans rated the economy as good by a ratio of about four to one, versus about two to one for white Democrats and an even narrower margin for white Democrats without a college degree. A Times/CBS News poll in December found that, relative to two years earlier, roughly three times as many African-Americans said their family’s financial situation was better as said it was worse, while Democrats without a college degree were almost evenly split on this question.

Geoff Garin, a strategist for Mrs. Clinton’s 2008 campaign who currently polls for Priorities USA Action, a pro-Clinton “super PAC,” posited that for a more economically marginal group like African-Americans, the unemployment rate — which has declined significantly for all racial groups in recent years — carries more importance than growth in incomes and certain assets, which have been slower to recover. For whites, even working-class whites, whose jobless rate is substantially lower than that for African-Americans, the latter took on comparatively more importance.

“The major source of economic anxiety for working-class white men is not whether they have a job tomorrow,” Mr. Garin said, “it’s that they still haven’t had their personal recovery. Their recovery is about assets and income.” For African-Americans, on the other hand, “you don’t take job growth for granted.”

He cited polling data showing that working-class white Democrats were roughly as concerned about inequality as they were about job growth and economic growth, while African-Americans were overwhelmingly concerned about the latter two. It is no surprise, Mr. Garin said, that Mrs. Clinton, who has had a similar emphasis in her campaign, did better among African-Americans, while Mr. Sanders’s emphasis on inequality resonated more with whites.

In a similar vein, there is anecdotal evidence suggesting that African-Americans and Hispanic voters are more likely to use the economy’s recent low point, in 2008 and 2009, as the base line for their judgment than are whites, who may focus on more recent performance, where improvement has been less pronounced.

.....................................................................................................

The Affordable Care Act may be another aspect of President Obama’s economic record that minority voters and working-class whites view differently. “Blacks and Hispanics benefited more from the A.C.A.,” said Simon Rosenberg, president of NDN, a policy and advocacy group. “It was a really dramatic lowering of their uninsured rate, which was obviously material to their economic health and their overall comfort in the world.”

Mr. Minor said that while he received his health care through the Department of Veterans Affairs, many of his friends “had no insurance and no possibility of getting insurance.”

“Obamacare has been a boon to them,” he said.

By contrast, many whites, who were insured at a higher rate than the other groups before the Affordable Care Act took effect, saw the program as detrimental to their interests. “The promise of Obamacare was to make it more affordable for everybody,” said J. J. Price, a firefighter and union member in Roanoke, Va., who voted for Mr. Obama in 2008 but Mitt Romney in 2012. “It’s done nothing but make it more expensive on us, the working class.”

Mrs. Clinton, of course, has been a dogged defender of the Affordable Care Act, while Mr. Sanders has dwelled on the program’s not going far enough. He prefers a single-payer system akin to expanding Medicare for the entire population.

The dynamic on the Affordable Care Act suggests a broader difference when it comes to African-Americans and working-class whites: When Mr. Sanders implicitly criticizes Mr. Obama from the left, white working-class Democrats may see it as advocating for their economic interests, but the claims tend to fall flat with many blacks, among whom the president is still wildly popular.

 

....................................................................................................

“I don’t think you can discount how important President Obama is,” said Stanley B. Greenberg, a former Clinton White House pollster who recently conducted focus groups with African-American voters in Philadelphia and Cleveland. “Obama and his election and re-election is seen as on a scale of what the civil rights movement achieved.”

He added that Mrs. Clinton, by way of her service in the administration and her eagerness to defend the president’s policies on the campaign trail, “is seen as having a more instinctive identification with Obama.”

 

Reading what white "experts", or black politicians say about blacks?  the politicians need to suck up the Clinton soup, and the "experts" over sample 60 y/o black females, and under sample 35 y/o black men.

Tell us what the labor force participation rate is for black men between 25-54.  THAT, more than the unemployment rate more accurately indicates the current economic standing of blacks. 

The unemployment rate only includes those who have "looked" for jobs within the last 6 months.  Folks who lost their jobs 5 years ago, and who still haven't found any aren't included in unemployment data.  Given the greater difficulty that blacks have in finding work, a higher % of those who lost their jobs in the 2007-2010 period will be among blacks not included in the labor statistics.

Let us look at median black household incomes.  Have they past 2000 levels yet, or even 2008, and I mean REAL, not nominal.  Clearly if a median income of $30k increases to $32k, that shows a higher rate than an increase from $50k to $52k. 

Or let us look at the black home ownership rate.  If it isn't more than 50% than they are worse off than they were in 2005.

Then we have blacks being forced out of major cities, like NYC,DC, or Chicago because they can no longer afford to live there (cannot  afford the rents or the property taxes).  Clearly most forced into states like SC aren't there because they want to be, given the weak economy of that state.

How many 26 year black men do you think are in polls, or surveys?

The turn out in the primaries for blacks was 40% LOWER than it was in 2008.  This shows a major enthusiasm gap.

The young are fervently Bernie, because they too despair.  Many aren't going to vote if Hillary wins.

So I say all that to say that a defeat of Trump is NOT a certainty because it is evident that the Trump Democrat exists, just as the Reagan Democrat existed. 

The question will be how many, and will they be in states like MI, MO, OH, and PA, which Hillary will have to win.  And will the black turnout be enough to offset white male defection, when we consider that Obama won some SWING states by a scant 2% gap.

It is a fact that only a few states determine who wins and who loses.  FL, VA, PA, OH, MO, and now CO.  The rest are fiercely blue, or fiercely red, or too small to matter.

BTW Sanders doesn't trail Clinton among blacks because life is so good for blacks.  Only some white "expert", or a black politician will say this. Sanders trails because he has no experience of campaigning to blacks.  He listens to Spike Lee and Cornell West.  Blacks don't listen to either.

Hillary has had 40 years, and so a better network among blacks, so her focus is on economic inclusion.  And that is her focus PRECISELY because she is aware that the recovery has by and large past a large segment of the black population by.

BTW the study showing increases in income among black for different age groups over different time horizons has a serious flaw. 

In the 90s and in the "00" there was a sharp increase in black college grads.  So part of the increase reflected that blacks in general, and black women in particular. were achieving higher levels of college attainment.

Not an Obama benefit.  Just black females being more aggressive in obtaining college education.  So the younger cohorts would see income increases more rapid than older cohorts, so we aren't comparing the same population.

Reprinted here in cadse caribny missed the import of the narrative.

==============================================“The major source of economic anxiety for working-class white men is not whether they have a job tomorrow,” Mr. Garin said, “it’s that they still haven’t had their personal recovery. Their recovery is about assets and income.” For African-Americans, on the other hand, “you don’t take job growth for granted.”

The Affordable Care Act may be another aspect of President Obama’s economic record that minority voters and working-class whites view differently. “Blacks and Hispanics benefited more from the A.C.A.,” said Simon Rosenberg, president of NDN, a policy and advocacy group. “It was a really dramatic lowering of their uninsured rate, which was obviously material to their economic health and their overall comfort in the world.”

==============================================