The polls are all of the place with only one conclusion in all of them to this point, obama is ahead in the electoral maps

play with this.

http://www.270towin.com/

Nice try karimullah!

Brother Hussein Obama and his groupies here on gni would be very proud of you.

RE: FLORIDA, VIRGINIA & NORTH CAROLINA = 60 Electoral votes

* Suffolk polling has already pulled out of those 3 states and given them to Romney.

* Rasmussen has Romney leading 51/46 in FL

* Rasmussen has Romney leading 50/47 in Virginia

RE: PENNSYLVANIA

* You have seen the shock poll from Susquehanna---Romney leads 49/45

* PA ought to be a gimme for Obama---the fact that Romney is leading in some polls or close in others---that is bad news for Obambi.

RE: WISCONSIN

* Obama leads Romney +2(50/48)---but the margin of error is +/- 4.5%---Rasmussen

RE: NEW HAMPSHIRE

* Rasmussen has Obama leading 50/49

* Suffolk has it tied 47/47

* ARG has Romney leading 50/46

RE: IOWA

Read this: ROMNEY IS CLOSING

David Yepsen, former Des Moines Register reporter and current director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University Carbondale, discusses the state of the race in Iowa.

“I think Obama is very narrowly ahead, and Romney is closing,” Yepsen says. “I say that for a lot of reasons, but the big one is the Republicans are doing a far better job on absentee ballots than they’ve ever done before. Democrats have always done a very good job with that, and so, I think that’s the reason why you can say Romney’s closing. This race feels a lot like 2000, 2004.

RE: OHIO

Regarding early voting---CNN and GOP officials are pointing to a substantial tightening compared to 2008. They say the ground war is hugely important--OH will come down to turnout---right now Republicans are more enthused than democrats.

==============

CONCLUSION:

Keep dreaming karimullah---in 18 days Mullah Obama will be fired and Mitt Romney will be elected President.

Romney 53% Obama 47%

Rev

Only a nut case will believe Pa goes Romney. The Red belt of PA is trending blue and I am sure Romney has no hope on the Philly corridor where the majority lives.

Stormy:

Use your few functioning brain cells for a change!

Listen! Pennsylvania ought to be a gimme for Obama---the fact that the state is still viewed as competitive is bad news for Obama.

Obama may still win the state---but PA should have been a safe state for him---the fact that it is not---that is bad news for Obambi.

Rev

With due respect Kari the polls make assumptions about who is likely to turn out.  And I also hope that your polls that you use are current and not from one month ago, because what I saw pre second debate made it look quite close in some states that you claim lean strongly to Obama...OH being an example.

Dont pull out the champagne until when ever FL and OH results are announced.  Obama wins those two and it doesnt matter what else happens unless there is a major upset in some guaranteed state.  Not likely given how polarized the voters are.

The splits are mainly statistical ties.  The results will depend on who actually votes, and the extent to which GOP tricks in some states prevent Obama supporters from voting (FL/OH).

Now Obama's last debate performance has increased the odds that his base will show up and that he might grab undecideds and win back some of the females who0 had begun to look at Romney more closely.

The race remains close and I suggest that both you and Rev Al are quite foolish to call the results.  If you feel so strongly Kari, jump in  a plane to some swing state (I suggest  and help them get the voters out.  It isnt who answers the phone which determines the winner (you should be aware that polling white support for black candidates causes some to lie...maybe 5%...out of some sense of white guilt).  Its who votes and whether they actually vote the way they told pollsters that they would vote.

Rev so goes PA, so goes OH.  After your guy revealed himself to be a thug on TV last debate white females are flocking BACK to Obama.

The odds are that Obama wins, but I must caution Kari not to buy his tix for the inauguration yet.

Your guy had as bad a moment as Obama did in the first debate and will most likely hbe crucified with a newly invigorated Obama next Monday.

Benghazi 2012 is no Tehran 1979 and that seems all that Ro0mney has.

Rev layed with stormborn's map.  Gave Obama PA,WI,MI,NV, and OH.  Gave Romney NC,FL,IA,CO,VA, and NH.

Even with that scenario Obama wins.

Your only hope is that the Hispanics stay home, guaranteeing a Romney win in CO and NV.   Or a low black turn out causes Obama to lose OH.

Turns out that the behavior of the "darkies" will play a greater role than that of the whites.

I was working for the Obama campaign in PA last weekend. East Stroudsburg to be exact and the biggest, most tattooed redneck looking guys, guys you would think won't want to hear obama's name, said they can't stand for what Romney is saying. They signed up to vote for Obama. People from all walks of life were saying they don't want to hear Romney's name.  

What I should have added in my presentation on the States Electoral College vote are these.

The Obama campaign has started the GOTV in earnest - that is Get Out The Vote. Their ground game is exemplary in American political campaigns.Jay-Z, Sarah Silverman Will-I-am, Bruce Springsteen etc. are on the trail. Look for other known  figures to jump in as the train picks up steam in last few days - just like 2008. Indeed Bill Clinton and Obama will appear together at some well-timed stops.

Also the summer months gave the impression that Obama's coalition that gave him victory in 2008 is less interested - citing the poor job numbers, etc. The Convention did not do much for Obama but Romney's favorability remained below the Mendoza line. Then came the first debate and Romney reversed some of the TV ads that used Romney's position to make him out to be a monster. You see in the average of the polls with the proper weighting and adjustments that Obama's registered voters lead is around 4 percentage points, while his likely voters lead is only 1%. The last two weeks is where the winner usually pulls away. Remember how McCain/Palin was seen as strong going into October? Watch for the likely voters polling, even though usually election day is closer to registered voters as the disinterested gets whipped up to become a "likely" voter.

This anecdote has some resonance from what I'm also hearing. It's like in 2008 when some Evangelical Christians in the South had Obama/Biden posters in their front yard. The Christian Right is still not sold on Romney, and their dislike for Obama hasn't reached the point where it will hurt Obama.

I believed Pennsylvania is not strongly leaning to Obama; I would actually give him Pennsylvania as a certain.

I dont even know why PA and MI are listed as swing states.  Obama has them.

The collapse of McCain came because he tried to pull a stunt because he knew he wasnt prepared for a debate.  He rushed off to DC to "solve" the crisis which had emerged due to the collapse of Lehman, with the implosion of the rest of the sector looking imminent.

He couldnt grasp the issues, Obama not only did but demonstrated an ability to have solutions.  McCain couldnt deliver the GOP vote in the House, and so the bailout which was BIPARTISAN (sorry Rev Al but this is the truth) succeeded because Democrats in the House supported it.

The USA, fearing a Second Depression, even worse than the First, put aside their racial fears and xenophobia and voted Obama.

The results this year will depend at this point on who actually votes.  Aside from PA and MI all of the swing states are a statistical tie...within the 3% range.  CO and NV depend on Hispanic turn out......we do not know what this will be.

What is in Obama's favor is that Romney messed up badly with the female votes (the binder fiasco) and they are moving back to Obama.  Lucky also that when women say they will vote the usually do.

It will be a close call.

If Romney messes up on Monday, the way he did on Tuesday....quite likely...it might not be that close.

Rev Al.......I think that you are now on suicide watch.  While I am not going to declare a winner I give Obama 75% probability after his shopwing on Tuesday.

Rev I dont know where you can flee to as no nation will tolerate bigots like you.

Baseman and yuji there is still time for you all to redeem yourselves.

carib:

Whoever wins Ohio wins the Presidency!

THE REV HAS CRUNCHED THE NUMBERS AND DONE THE ANALYSIS AND IS HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT MITT ROMNEY WILL WIN OHIO.

Listen carib!

* Obama won in 2008 because of a highly enthusiastic base turning out votes big time plus he had a healthy lead with INDEPENDENTS---we all know that.

* Right now Romney is leading with INDEPENDENTS in OH---in every poll!

* Romney has also been drawing "2008 Obama sized crowds" according to NY times reporter Jeff Zeleny who spent 5 days in Ohio---so Republicans are clearly more enthused than democrats in Ohio---more enthusiasm = greater turnout.

RE: OHIO POLLS

* Real Clear Politics @ 10/15 has Obama up 2.2%---that is down from Obama +5.6% a few weeks ago---the first debate changed the trajectory of the race.

* OBAMA IS STUCK AROUND 48.3% IN OHIO---this is not a great place to be when the challenger has momentum in the final days of a campaign.

RE: ABSENTEE BALLOTS--OHIO

* Requests by Republicans were up from 2008---that is a big plus

RE: OHIO EARLY VOTING

* As I stated above, regarding early voting in OH, both CNN and GOP officials are pointing to a substantial tightening compared to 2008---a plus for Republicans.

CONCLUSION!

Obama won Ohio in 2008 by 4.6%(51.5 to 46.9)----given the greater enthusiasm among Republicans and the healthy lead Romney has among Independents---Romney is guaranteed to win Ohio in 2012---and the presidency.

THE REV--A MAN OF NUMBERS--HAS SPOKEN!

Rev

Kari go and support the get out to vote in OH.  If Obama doesnt win OH (if he doesnt win there he almost definitely loses FL,NC, and VA) he loses.  Even if he gets CO.   I think NV will be solid for him.

So jump in your car next weekend and go to the suburbs of the major OH cities and get them out since you feel so strongly about this.

I agree.  Just told Kari to go to OH.

Where you might fail is that OH is doing great because of the auto industry.   OH is also a lot like PA, and even you conceded PA to Obama.

If I were you I wouldnt die your skin white your hair blonde, in an attempt to disguise yourself so the Tea Party dont attack you as a Muslim.   You might not be going any where near DC in Jan 2013, instead attempting to recover from that major heart attack that you got arund 10PM on Nov 6 when it is annouced OH goes to Obama.  He doesnt have to win in FL, VA, and NC to win. 

Indeed if Romney looks like a child with a temper tantrum on Monday night the election will be over for him.  The last thing he will need will be the media carping about how ignorant he is about the subtleties of the Middle East.  And how he seems intent on another war on Muslims.

BTW Rev we havent heard the results of the post second debate polls yet.  By Sunday you will be in tears about that BLACK MAN climbing ahead.

Tell Kari to head for Cleveland--Obama has to absolutely kill in the Cleveland area in order to win Ohio.

From information the Rev has gathered--southern and eastern Ohio have moved toward Romney--and so have Columbus and Cincinnati.

The problem for Obama is the darkies in the Cleveland have already received their free Obama cell phones--and will not turn out in the numbers they did in 2008.

Once again:

Republican enthusiasm = more volunteers = more turnout = more GOTV effort + Healthy lead among Indys by Romney = ROMNEY WIN IN OHIO = ROMNEY WINNING THE PRESIDENCY.

Rev

Rasmussen today: R 48% O 48%

Ras uses a 3 day average--so check out Ras tomorrow---his poll will reflect the 3 days after the 2nd debate.

Dont be surprised to see: R 49%  47%

==========

Gallup(7 day average): R 51% O 45%

Gallup has picked up 2 days after the 2nd debate.

Rev

Romney is pulling ahead but some Republican nuts are creating drag with the women votes.  In the end, Obama will lose as the economy continues to falter.  Obama's spin doctors running out of excuses.

Romney is pulling ahead but some Republican nuts are creating drag with the women votes.  In the end, Obama will lose as the economy continues to falter.  Obama's spin doctors running out of excuses.

 

The mother of American diplomat Sean Smith responded to Barack Obama’s description of the slaughter as “not optimal.” Pat Smith told the Daily Mail,
“My son is not very optimal. He is also very dead.”
The Daily Mail reported:

basey:

Obama has been campaigning recently on "bindergate" and "romnesia"---his pettiness may appeal to his base and the main stream media---but independents and undecideds are being turned off--the polls reflect this.

THIS ELECTION IS OVER!

Rev

Originally Posted by baseman:

Romney is pulling ahead but some Republican nuts are creating drag with the women votes.  In the end, Obama will lose as the economy continues to falter.  Obama's spin doctors running out of excuses.

 

The mother of American diplomat Sean Smith responded to Barack Obama’s description of the slaughter as “not optimal.” Pat Smith told the Daily Mail,
“My son is not very optimal. He is also very dead.”
The Daily Mail reported:

basey:

 

Obama has been campaigning recently on "bindergate" and "romnesia"---his pettiness may appeal to his base and the main stream media---but independents and undecideds are being turned off--the polls reflect this.

 

THIS ELECTION IS OVER!

 

Rev

 

 

Actually Bindergate is not as bad as Benghazigate.

RE: OHIO EARLY VOTES--2012

This news can't be good for the Obambi's!

* In 2008 Democrats made up 42% of the early and absentee vote in Ohio; Republicans 22%. That was a dismal 20% deficit for the Republicans.

* In 2012, as of Wednesday, Oct 15th, Democrats account for 36% of the early and absentee vote; Republicans 29%. That is only a 7% deficit.

REMEMBER THE DEFICIT WAS 20% IN 2008---now it's only 7%.

CONCLUSION:

* Democrat enthusiasm is lagging in 2012---the Republicans have the BIG MO!

* The WINNING FORMULA: Republican enthusiasm + Healthy lead among INDEPENDENTS = Republican victory in Ohio = PRESIDENT MITT ROMNEY

START WEEPING & MOURNING OBAMBI'S

Rev

FOX NEWS POLL HAS OBAMA LEADING 46-43 IN OHIO!

That's the good news for Obambi--he leads by 3 in Ohio, but here is the bad news:

* Obama is losing independents 52/28 in the fox poll

* Undecideds are 11%---undecideds usually break for challenger 3/1 or 4/1

* Fox news used a D+8 sample---with democrats at 41%---that is 2% more than democrats were in 2008

CONCLUSION:

An incumbent president with a poll packed of your party(democrats) and you are still at 46% ? Obambi is guaranteed to lose folks!

Rev

BTW Rev...nobody doubing that the election will be close...after all the economy and deficit has affected Obama...nevertheless, he will win...bottom line, is people distrust Romney...remember that lady asking him how much different he is from Bush?

ray:

You are a democrat who will be voting for the democrat party in November---the Rev respects your choice.

Now ray check this out:

* 90% of registered democrats will vote for Obama; 90% of registered republicans will be voting for Romney.

* It's the independents and undecideds who will determine the winnner in November.

* Right now all the polls show the independents breaking for Romney.

* In 2008 enthusiasm was higher among democrats than republicans---39% of voters were democrats; 32% democrats---in 2012 republicans have narrowed the enthusiasm gap.

CONCLUSION:

With increased republican enthusiasm and with republicans having a healthy lead among independents, Mitt Romney is guaranteed to win the presidency.

Remember the Rev's mantra:

NUMBERS DON'T LIE!

And the numbers clearly indicate a Romney victory.

Rev

On November 6, the real numbers will speak...so you can continue with the long winded posts

President Barack Obama again will have the real numbers to win the elections.

BOMBSHELL: ROMNEY LEADS BY 4 IN SWING STATES(50%-46%) ACCORDING TO RASMUSSEN

* The 11 swing states comprising 146 electoral votes are: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New hampshire. North carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

* Obama won those states 53-46 in 2008

* This marks the first time that Romney has hit the 50% mark in the combined swing states.

START WEEPING AND MOURNING CARIB BAI!

http://www.rasmussenreports.com

Rev

POOR KARIMULLAH--HE HAS RUN WITH HIS TAIL BETWEEN HIS LEGS FROM HIS 270 THREAD--IT'S PANIC TIME IN THE OBAMA CAMP--DESPERATION HAS SET IN

Check out today's gallup daily tracking poll--Romey's lead back to 7 points.

Not even a miracle from Allah can save Obambi---caribJ shytting bricks--his hero Obama will be soundly defeated---maybe a landslide!

Rev

Rev

Carib can use the bricks to build himself a houses and get out of subsidize housing. That boy badly needs an education. He might as well get some schooling while at it.

Actually carib is OK in the Rev's book---and he is not on welfare---he has written very intelligently about health insurance, so I rather suspect he works in the insurance sector---carib has a 9 to 5 job---he ain't on no welfare and food stamps and doesn't live in the hosing projects like many of his afro brothers.lol

The Rev doesn't agree with carib politically---but respects carib viewpoints---the Rev respects carib's right to be wrong.hahaha

Rev

NEVADA'S SECOND LARGEST DAILY DROPS OBAMA , ENDORSES ROMNEY

Second is not top. If the number one daiy has 2 million readership and the second has 240K then the second largest daily makes no difference. 

Brudda:

In 2008, Obama won Nevada by 120,000 votes---if the turnout in 2012 is the same as 2008---all Romney has to do inorder to win nevada is flip 60,000 votes---that Reno Gazette endorsement will surely help---remember, they supported Obambi in 2008.

Rev

I do not know what juice you are drinking.  If the WHITE Christian right didnt have this pathological fear of Obama Romney would have gone home and packed in it long ago.

They do not trust Romney but HATE Obama and will vote for any elephant who shows up.

Why do you think that the Bible belt is being ignored by the Obama campaign?  Only reason why they bother with NC and VA is the large migrant population from the North East and the Mid west on top of the large black vote (over 20%) and a growing Puerto Rican population.

As of now the national polls show 47-47%, despite Obama;s improved debate performance. 

Redv more Hispanics are registered than in 2008.  If the KKK/GOP didnt harrass every swarthy looking person, threatening to deport them, maybe many might stay home.

Sadly for you too mnay US BORN Hispanics dont think being stopped by some racist cop, who inquires about their residency status, is amusing.  Most people only have driver's licences as ID and this is often not accepted a sproof of legal residancy.  So you can see how a Jose, who speaks no Spanish, might suddenly find himself in El Paso pleeding with the border patrol that they are AMericans.

Can confidently say Obama has PA, MI, and NV.  And Romney has NC.  The other swing states are any one's guess.

Both you and Kari are counting your marbles before you even know where they are.

Boss I have an advanced degree from an Ivy League school. You on the other hand are one of those Guyanese who never finshed primary school.

You ought to use the poll of polls.  That shows a dead heat.

Kari is in OH to ensure that the Devil and his bride do not win.  You know the two "R"s.

Apparently your "advanced" degree did not make you into a better person as you still support mo fiah slow fiah and lack the fortitude to tell your people that they need to do more for themselves rather than depend on govt and keep blaming Indians for their woes in life.