Problem 2:

How much of the incremental votes shown were due to the AFC given the AFC percentages of the APNU+AFC 2011 totals shown?

Here are the percentages for problem 2:

VVP, Rev is the numbers man.

Now this is for Caribny only.  Nobady allowed to jine dis class.

My student skulking.  I hope he went to chuch because no other excuse will be accepted.

bannas....the man need time to wuk this one ova..

Riffraff, Can you fix them tables?  They are not too bad right now.  If you hit reply on the post you can get the format.

Whah yuh asking Riff tuh do? He nah know shit about computers.

Bai, de only thing that interests Carib Beer is that the AFC region votes show that the urban AFC contribution to the coalition is greater than the rural one translating to the black AFC influence more instrumental to the Coalition. Conclusion - Nagamootoo will be booted out in favor of Trotman or Nigel.

Carib does not want to hear about coolie man and the PNC. He feels that PNC is for blacks and douglas only.

Yuh notice how before the election, he was preaching unity? The moment the new government was announced, he started talking about disunity in the AFC.

VVP I have said loads on this subject,  If you cannot understand really cannot help you.

I went indepth into each individual region, telling you what the margins in each region were. 

BOTTOM LINE.  In the regions dominate by the PPP they won the bulk of the incremental votes.  Their margin of victory over APNU AFC INCREASED. And that is despite the fact that the African/mixed vote would have surged in those regions, delivering votes for the coalition.

It is clear to all except for the Moses fanatics, that Moses DID NOT deliver a split Indian vote in any significant way.  Had there not been a surge of the African vote, as high as 20% in locations like Linden and South G/town the PPP would have WON.

So relax and enjoy what ever benefits that the coalition brings.  Hope that its performance brings more Indians and Amerindians to their side in 2020 so we can finally have an election which isn't a low grade civil war.

In 2015 African/mixed, Indians, and Amerindians all participate in an election based on ethnic fear, this due to the racist tactics of the PPP.

Afternoon. Kaz. If you don't understand what I wrote don't comment on it.

Never made any such comments.

Now go and sit down and look at the composition of the AFC ministers and tell me if you really think that Moses dominates that party.

Cariboohoo's main interest is for the AFC to rip Indian votes away from the PPP/C in Berbice and keep its 2011 gains (largely Moses's entry into the AFC).

The increase of total votes cast from 2011 (342,126) to 2015 (410.578) is 68,452.

The AFC+APNU increased its 2011 votes (175,052) to 2015 (207,200) votes by 32,148

The PPP/C increased its 2011 votes (166,340) to 2015 (202,268) votes by 35,928

As VVP states, the PPP's 2015 loss by 4,506 in 2015 is less than its 2011 loss by 8,825.

Thus, the increased voter roll produced more PPP/C votes.

By consensus (Freddie, Cariboohoo, etc.), Had Blacks not turned out in greater numbers than in elections past the coalition would have been taken to the cleaners by the PPP/C. We notice that by the Regional breakdowns the coalition actually saw its Berbice votes (Region 6) decline by 329.

Without rich statistics we can infer that AFC, by and large,  did not lose the Moses' Indians in Berbice.

In a sense the AFC-APNU coalition played a defensive tole in 2015 (that is, defending its collective 2011 position) and two things caused them to lose to the PPP by only 4,319 (2011 difference of 8,825 and 2015 difference of 4,506):

1. Moses did not lose his PPP Indians in Berbice as Cariboohoo would like us believe;
2. The increased turnout by Blacks in Linden and GT for the coalition is because they finally saw a way to get rid of the PPP/C from governing - the Moses-driven coalition move -  something that Caribblah-blah would like us to not believe. HEe thinks that without the AFC in the elections the APNU would have gone from 40% to 50+% of the voters in 3 years.

Sorry if I misunderstood what you wrote Sarge.  Help me out here. Who is responsible for selecting the AFC Ministers as well as their Parliamentarians?

Of course 75% of the coalition increase was in PNC strongholds. Then we factor in the 35% of the vote of Regions 5 and 6 being African/mixed, assuming that they turned out in the same numbers in 2011.  With a 12% increase in the turn out from this bloc we get 3300 voters, yet the coalition only added 1200 in Berbice meaning that it lost of 2000 Indian voters.  12% is a conservative assumption given that it was much higher than that in Linden and G/town.

I can do the same thing in Region 3, where the African/mixed is 30% of the population, and I pretty much suspect that this will account for the bulk of the increase in the coalition vote.

If your argument is based on a notion that Moses split the PPP vote you have failed to prove it. All you are doing is playing around with data that you do not understand.

Listen go calculate the velocity of something, and leave the analysis of this kind of data to those who know what they are doing.

I will leave you with two facts.

1.  The PPP reduced its margin of loss by 50%.

2.  Their incremental increase in votes was 4000 higher than the coalition.

This was because they recaptured many of the votes lost to Nagamootoo in Regions 5 and 6.  And retained their share of the votes inn regions 2,3, and 4.

This would NOT have been possible if Moses made more inroads into the Indian vote.  That vote remained solidly with the PPP, despite its misgivings, and this is because the PPP very cleverly played on their fears of African domination and the notion that Moses is a self hating Indian.

Give up on the notion that Moses is a a king maker because he split the PPP vote.  He didn't.  Just thank your stars that the African tsunami which Freddie refers to actually did occur.

Aside from some errors in voter turn out, because Freddie relied on a flawed list, Freddie is RIGHT. 

O.  Help me out here. Who is responsible for selecting the AFC Ministers as well as their Parliamentarians?

Look at this here.

OLD AFC. Trotman, Ramjattan, Gaskin, Holder, Patterson, Hughes.

Nagamootoo AFC.  Nagamootoo.

Other AFC. Garrido Lowe.

Draw your own conclusions.

I saved your list (using the reply function) as a text file and imported it into Excel then save as JPEG and uploaded.

I'm sure there's a more elegant way in wordpress - but that's not my forte, I'm just systems infrastructure.

Well you showed up late for class. 

Here is the answer to number 1: 

36467 - 32148 = 8825 - 4506 = 4319 

Meaning the incremental votes gained by the PPP in 2015 compared to the Coalition directly translated to  the reduction of the margin from 8825 to 4506.  There is no need to get into a the regions to explain the reason for the overall reduction in the margin from 2011 to 2015.  You are hip hip hooraying about the bretherens and sisterens showing up to votes in 2015, but bottom line is the PPP turned out more people to support them. 

Now on to question 2.  Study it and answer, because that will get to the gist of AFC contribution

....and the Blacks voted for reasons other than ethnic fear, right?! stchuups!!!!

Originally Posted by ksazma:

O.  Help me out here. Who is responsible for selecting the AFC Ministers as well as their Parliamentarians?

Look at this here.

 

OLD AFC. Trotman, Ramjattan, Gaskin, Holder, Patterson, Hughes.

 

Nagamootoo AFC.  Nagamootoo.

 

Other AFC. Garrido Lowe.

 

 

Draw your own conclusions.

Your answer didn't do shit to help me out bai.

At some point people were being selected to fill certain spots in the new government. Who selects those people? Is there a committee that is responsible for this?

Cariboohoo, now for lessons in government.

The present Guyana government is comprised of 15 Ministries with 15 Ministers. The APNU party has 9 Ministers and the AFC 6. By my calculation that's a 60-40 split and I believe in accord with the Cummingsburg Agreement.

The APNU 9 are:

– Basil Williams, Attorney General and Minister of Legal Affairs (APNU, specifically PNCR)

– Winston Jordan, Minister of Finance (APNU, specifically PNCR)

– Carl Greenidge, Minister of Foreign Affairs (APNU, specifically PNCR)

– George Norton, Minister of Public Health (APNU, specifically PNCR)

– Volda Lawrence, Minister of Social Protection (APNU, specifically PNCR)

– Ronald Bulkan, Minister of Communities (APNU, specifically PNCR) (water, housing, local government portfolios included)

– Sydney Allicock, Minister of Indigenous People’s Affairs (APNU, specifically GAP)

– Rupert Roopnaraine, Minister of Education (APNU, specifically WPA) (youth, sport and culture included)

– Amna Ally, Minister of Social Cohesion (APNU, specifically PNCR)

The AFC 6 are:

– Moses Nagamootoo, Prime Minister (AFC) and First Vice President

– Khemraj Ramjattan, Minister of Public Security (AFC) (formerly home affairs) and Second Vice President

– Noel Holder, Minister of Agriculture (AFC)

– Dominic Gaskin, Minister of Business and Investment (AFC)

– Cathryn Hughes, Minister Tourism (AFC)

– David Patterson, Minister of Public Infrastructure (AFC)

Added to that 15 are 8 Ministers within the above Ministries, referred to as Junior Ministers. 7 are APNU and 1 is AFC. I don't know if this is supposed to be covered by the 60-40 split of the Cummingsburg Agreement.

There is then the Ministers within the Presidency (2 APNU and 1 AFC):

– Joe Harmon, Minister of the Presidency (APNU, specifically PNCR) (Head of the Presidential Secretariat, Natural Resources/Envt)

– Raphael Trotman, Minister of Governance (AFC) (within the Min. of the Presidency)

– Winston Felix, Minister of Citizenship (APNU, specifically PNCR) (within the Min. of the Presidency)

These 23 + the President + 3 Ministers within the Presidency= 27 Cabinet Members.

Note that the Prime Minister is the 1st Vice President and AFC has the other Vice President announced so far (Khemraj). The portfolios of the AC are not to be poo=poo'ed Cariboohoo - Agri, business, infrastructure, tourism and law enforcement.

The AFC did not lose its 2011 votes in Berbice;  it held it and this was a major contribution factor to the win.  Caribny does not want to acknowledge that.  He does not know how to interpret numbers so we have to cut him some slack.

Kari we know the African/mixed share of the population of these regions.  We know based on past elections they vote PNC.  We can argue about whether they turn out more or less than do Indians.  I will assume that their turn out is the same.

In Regions 5 and 6 35% of the population is African/mixed, not 100% Indian as you seem to assume by attributing every vote to the PPP or Moses.

In these regions 80,200 voted in 2011  Taking 35% of that we get 28k African/mixed.  If this group's % of increase in turn out is 50% of what it was in region 10 then that is a 12% increase, suggesting that 3,300 more voted.  Yet the coalition only increased its votes by 1,200, suggesting a loss of 2,100 Indian votes.  If I assume a 20% increase (in line with G/town) than 5,600 more of these votes, meaning that the coalition lost 4,500 Indian votes.

BOTTOM line.  Moses LOST some of the support which he gained.  This being especially true in Region 6, where, despite a higher African/mixed turn out, the coalition LOST votes.  30% of Region 6 is African/mixed you ought to know. 

But note that the PPP drew out 10,200 MORE votes from these regions than they did in 2011. So even if Moses had kept is 11k votes from these regions it still would not have been enough to deliver the margin of victory to offset this significantly higher PPP vote.  But He LOST some of those votes.

Kari and VVP.   There was a small Indo swing vote.  But without the African tsunami (a possible 20% increase in the turn out) this swing vote  would NOT have been enough to offset the fact that the PPP turned out an additional 35k votes.

The PPP panicked the East Indian and the Amerindian about the prospects of the return of African rule.  Look also in the interior locations. 

The PPP almost won Region 8 and INCREASED its margins in regions 1 and 9.  It is only in Region 7, dominated heavily by Bartica that the PPP lost ground in the interior.

1.  The Indian swing vote was much smaller than anticipated with Moses losing Indo votes in Regions  5 and 6.

2.  A record African/mixed vote showed up that offset the fact that a highly successful racist campaign by the PPP led to Moses being unable to deliver the margins necessary to win.

Freddie say so, and you have FAILED to prove otherwise.

Now we can debate about the numerous factors as to why the black vote turned out.

1.  APNU ran a good get out to vote campaign and the young elements were very effective.

2. The PPP ran a racist campaign against black, which terrified them as to what more PPP rule might mean for them, and the tensions in G/twn on the night of the election, and the delirious celebrations when victory was announced, indicated the degree to which Africans felt victimized by PPP RACISM.

3. The Moses factor of a Indo swing vote was anticipated, but he did NOT deliver it.

You all also need to stop signaling to the coalition that this was a "national unity" victory.  It wasn't as the majority of East Indians and Amerindians are hostile to this result.  They will have to do much outreach to these communities, in addition to placating the African/mixed communities which showed up in the large numbers, offsetting the fact that the anticipated Moses Indo vote didn't materialize in the numbers that it was hoped.

I guess no one votes APNU in Berbice.  No Africans live there either.

I tell you to go calculate velocity and cease to make yourself look stupid by talking about issues that you do not understand.

Moses LOST many of his votes, the result being that, despite a higher turnout in the 30% African/mixed region 6 the coalition LOST 300 votes.

Region 5 is 40% African/mixed, and despite the higher vote of this bloc the coalition added only 1,200.  Obviously Moses lost some of his Indian votes.

You have no ability to engage in the analysis of this data so you really need to stop.

Listen guy.  It was hoped that Moses would have create a validly multi ethnic vote by building on his 2011 numbers.  Evidence is that he struggled to hold on to this bloc, losing part of it in Berbice, and he didn't add too many elsewhere.

A SMALL Indo swing vote resulted.  Not large enough to win victory.  WITHOUT an African tsunami the PPP tsunami would have swamped Moses and Ramotar and Liz would have been taking the vows.

Sorry.  Its just that racial panic is a huge factor in Guyanese elections.  East Indians, Africans, mixed and Amerindians!

How would the Coalition, specifically the AFC part be able to demonstrate this unity thereby securing more unity support in 2020 if as you predict, the AFC will have major fractures within their party?

You don't know shit what you talking about.  You see numbers and you get confused.  You do not know what they mean.  By the way other than being an engineer I do have a Masters in Public Administration where analysis such as this is common.  Matter of fact I cleaned clock because of my engineering background that why I am a Member of Pi Alpha Alpha - National Honor Society for Public Affairs and Administration.

  Well that is up to the coalition to figure it out.  We will see if the next PNC Congress is as boisterous as the last one was.  That will be a start.  We will also see if Granger will prioritize development in Linden, or whether he will be vindictive, inviting a backlash from this very mobilized community which increased its voter turn out by 24%, 100% of this increase going to the coalition.

How am I confused by the numbers. What conclusions have I arrived at which are wrong?

As we can see if we factor in the African/mixed turn out which would definitely have been significantly higher in 2015, we can easily see that some of those 10,200 additional PPP votes in Berbice come from folks who voted Moses in 2011.  Maybe as much as 25-50% of them.  What we do know is that Moses DID NOT add Indians votes to offset the additional Indians votes that the PPP gained in Berbice.

You can chant rhetoric and emotion but that doesn't change the fact that Moses DID NOT deliver a significant Indian swing vote.  If the African/mixed vote remained what it was the PPP would indeed have won that 54% that Rev used to scream about.

Guyana once again waged a low grade civil war through the electoral process with the valid swing vote being less than 5% of the overall vote.

And who ever disagreed with what you said above?  Yes, Moses did NOT split the Indian votes 50/50 nobody in their mind could have expected that.  He did hold on to the 2011 votes and since the percentages remained basically the same in 2015 then it would be safe to assume that AFC pulled 20% (see problem 2) of the incremental 32,148 Coalition votes for 2015 which is about 6,500.  This is the answer to question 2.

YES the AFC was a major factor in the COALITION win as was the increased African turnout.

Hold your buddy Freddie hand and walk kanna kanna.  Classes dismissed.

Did you see my answer to question 1?  Apparently not.  Go read it.  Answer to question 2 is above.  Read that too.

You cannot credit all of the AFC to Moses.  That Trotman group still exists and we can see it through who is an  AFC minister.

Moses did NOT hold on to his 2011 vote.  He lost  30% or MORE of it.  In addition, given that the PPP got more of its base out, especially in Berbice, which accounted for 1/3 of this incremental increase, Moses would have to get MORE Indo votes to offset that PPP Berbice tsunami, where their vote increased by over 20%.

Guyana remains divided by race.  Every election is a low grade civil war.  This election was no different and sadly Moses was not able to run against that fact, given that a well financed PPP premised its campaign on "black man a go kill collie and Moses a go help dem do it".

What Moses will have to do is to do his best to ensure that the coalition succeeds and that he contains any suggestion within certain African segments that there should be ethnic revenge for what they endured under the PPP, or that the Indo population should be ignored.  IF he succeeds then he might deliver more Indian votes, but its obvious that only a small Indo swing vote resulted.  Not more than 10%.

Moses lost between 3000 to 5000 of this 2011 Berbice vote, depending on what assumptions one makes about the degree to which the African/mixed population increased its turn out.  So even if the PPP didn't increase its Berbice vote it would have been problematic.  But the PPP increased its Berbice vote by TWENTY PER CENT.

You expected Moses to split the Indian vote 50/50 are you out of your freaking mind??

People with a good grasp of maths must be laughing their heads off at your jumbie maths.  Look at my answer to question 2 and tell me why you think the AFC did not pick up incremental votes.

I expected no such thing.  My contention is that you and Kari are pretending that Moses delivered an Indo swing vote that didn't rely on that African tsunami to win. 

You are disputing the fact that there was a RECORD African/mixed vote.  If there was not a 20% increase in the African mixed vote, the PPP would have romped home with a 54% win.

The incremental increase in the PNC bloc was at least DOUBLE that of the votes which Moses brought in.  In addition Moses generate 30k votes for the PPP.  These are the facts that you have to admit to.

If Moses didn't join an APNU led coalition the PPP would have continued its trend of DECLINING votes.  You do know that the PPP 2011 vote was the same as the PNC 2001 vote.

Assuming you can understand some maths given that there was no scientific survey the following assumptions are viable since the percentage did not change significantly in 2015:  See attached file for better clarity.

What a piss poor reasoning is this.  Yes there was record African turn out.  There must have been record Indian turn out also.  AFC got some of the incremental turnout from all races like it previously did.  You and Freddie are not going to spread your piss poor logic.