Skip to main content

FM
Former Member


OK Folks:

Let's talk about the emotional investment of Guyanese people in the 3 major political parties in Guyana---the PPP, AFC, and PNC.

What does the Rev mean by emotional investment in a political party ?

Simple!

Guyanese who are emotionally invested in the PPP, for example, will give the party a pass and vote for them regardless of what---ditto the AFC and PNC---Guyanese emotionally invested in the PNC will vote PNC---same with the AFC.


BIG QUESTION:

What percentage of Guyanese people are emotionally invested in the PPP, the AFC and the PNC ?


This is the way the Rev sees it:

40.0%...PPP

35.0%...PNC

5.0%....AFC


40% + 35% + 5% = 80%

So 80% of Guyanese people are emotionally invested in the 3 major parties(40% PPP; 35% PNC; 5% AFC)---they will support their party no matter what.


That means 20% of the Guyanese are uncommited or independent---so how did this 20% vote in the 2011 election ?

Remember, the PPP received 48.6% of the votes; the PNC 40.8% and the AFC 10.3%


So if 40% of Guyanese people are emotionally invested in the PPP; 35% in the PNC and 5% in the AFC---here is how the 20% of independents voted in 2011:

8.6%...PPP(48.6 - 40.0)

5.8%...PNC(40.8 - 35.0)

5.3%...AFC(10.3 - 5.0)

The PPP received 8.6% of the independent votes; PNC 5.8%; AFC 5.3%


CONCLUSION:

You folks draw your own conclusion. Big Grin

But it looks like the PPP will forever rule Guyana. lol

Rev

Replies sorted oldest to newest

A very plausible summation at this juncture I would say. However, I do believe that the AFC being the juvenile in the pack with the least blemish and baggage, possesses the greatest potential for future support and at the same time whittling away at the emotionally invested support of the two dinosaurs in the room. The high and narrow road is still clearly defined but I can see temptation and expediency beckoning from every corners & allies.In my humble opinion, It was a grave mistake for the AFC to enter into a quid-pro-quo agreement with the PNC/ APNU for the speakership. As the smallest party in Parliament, their policies should always be guided by what is best for man and country.
FM
quote:
Originally posted by Mara:
However, I do believe that the AFC being the juvenile in the pack with the least blemish and baggage, possesses the greatest potential for future support and at the same time whittling away at the emotionally invested support of the two dinosaurs in the room.


Mara:

Emotional investment involves deep, profound loyalty---almost blind loyalty. And therefore there is only a 1% chance that Guyanese who are emotionally invested in the PPP and PNC would betray their loyalty and commitment to those parties.


RE: THE 20% INDEPENDENT VOTERS

Before the AFC can even think of targetting the 40% who are emotionally invested in the PPP and the 35% who are emotionally attached to the PNC---they must first plan to attract the independent voters.

As stated in the lead post---8.6% of independents voted for the PPP; 5.8% voted for the PNC and 5.3% voted for the AFC.


QUESTION:

What percentage of the independents can the AFC gather in the next election ?


SCENARIO

If, let's say the AFC were to gain 15% of the independents in the next election(highly unlikely) and the PNC and PPP were to split the remaining 5%---then the election result would look like this:

PPP...42.5%

PNC...37.5%

AFC...20%


Clearly the PPP will still form the government.

Rev
FM
quote:
Emotional investment involves deep, profound loyalty---almost blind loyalty. And therefore there is only a 1% chance that Guyanese who are emotionally invested in the PPP and PNC would betray their loyalty and commitment to those parties.



Rev, how does 35,000 votes from the PPP to the AFC translate to 1% probability?

You need another ring to represent those who did not vote, another ring for the spoiled votes. The sum of these rings would agree with the total population of legitimate voters.
Mitwah
quote:
Originally posted by Mara:
AIt was a grave mistake for the AFC to enter into a quid-pro-quo agreement with the PNC/ APNU for the speakership..


You mean because APNU capitalated and allowed the AFC candidate to be the Speaker, rather than insisting that they as the bigger party take the slot?


You all behave as if the AFC let APNU take that slot...or is it because the Speaker is AfroGuyanese?

Its amazing that some folks have a serious problem if an effective Afro gets a leadership slot where they will have real clout.
FM
quote:
Originally posted by Mitwah:
Rev, how does 35,000 votes from the PPP to the AFC translate to 1% probability?


Mitts:

You are a good guy, but you have a bit of a problem understanding numbers. Big Grin

You asked if 35,000 votes from the PPP to the AFC tannslates into a 1% probability.

That question doesn't make sense Mitts---you clearly did not comprehend the point I made about Guyanese voters and their emotional investment in the 3 parties.

Pay attention Mitts!

The Rev's contention is that 40% of Guyanese voters are emotionally invested in the PPP and 35% are emotionally invested in the PNC---no matter what the conditions are in Guyana---those folks will remain loyal to the PPP and PNC.

I made the point that because of the deep loyalty of those emotionally invested in the PPP and PNC there is a 1% probability of any of those folks voting for another party.

By the way, Judas Moses would be a part of that 1%---he was emotionally invested in the PPP for 50 years before he became a weasel and a traitor.

============================

quote:
Mitway wrote: You need another ring to represent those who did not vote, another ring for the spoiled votes. The sum of these rings would agree with the total population of legitimate voters.


Here are the 3 intersecting circles again:



Each circle represents one of the 3 parties in Guyana.

The dark portion--where the 3 circles intersect---represents the independent voters---the 20% of Guyanese voters who are not emotionally invested in any of the 3 major parties.

I mentioned to Mara that before the AFC can even dream of attracting those emotionally invested to the PPP and PNC---they must first attract the 20% independents.

And in the 2011 election they only attracted 5.3 of the 20% independents.


SCENARIO;

Let's assume the AFC were to get all 20% of independent voters in Guyana(that's an impossibility)---but for the sake of argumency.

So if the AFC gets all the independents---20%--this is how the next elections wiill play out:

PPP...40%(they only attract those emotionally invested in the PPP)

PNC...35%(they attract only those emotionally invested in the PNC)

AFC...25%(they get the 5% emotionally invested in the AFC + 20% independents)


THE PPP STILL WINS THE PRESIDENCY.

Rev
FM
Why no one has ever confessed being part of the PNC rigging machinery? Even people from Mafia have confessed about their unholy past but never from the PNC. Is there any room for redemption in the PNC?? Have people changed with the times? We see so many former PPPites coming out straight and honest about the errors of the parties and speaking about the marginaliztion of the old guards.

Come on PNC boys, please tell us some truths about the Burnham years of rigging and stealing from the treasury
Billy Ram Balgobin
quote:
Originally posted by Billy Ram Balgobin:
Why no one has ever confessed being part of the PNC rigging machinery? Even people from Mafia have confessed about their unholy past but never from the PNC. Is there any room for redemption in the PNC?? Have people changed with the times? We see so many former PPPites coming out straight and honest about the errors of the parties and speaking about the marginaliztion of the old guards.

Come on PNC boys, please tell us some truths about the Burnham years of rigging and stealing from the treasury

Alyuh coolies don't mess roun' wid datt great Burnham, datt man did alat fao dem people bai.
FM
quote:
The dark portion--where the 3 circles intersect---represents the independent voters---the 20% of Guyanese voters who are not emotionally invested in any of the 3 major parties.



Rev it's not my problem if you don't comprehend my question. I did not say "if" I asked "how".

BTW, your circles represent numbers of votes casted for each of the parties. Hence the shaded area represents voters who are emotionally invested commonly to all three of the major parties... you got your interpretation backwards.

You are making a fatal error when you do not include all registered voters to represent the total population. A+B+C = represents only total good votes casted for each of the major parties.

Another fatal error is your assumption that the voting population is static.



Try again. Big Grin
Mitwah
quote:
Originally posted by Mitwah:
BTW, your circles represent numbers of votes casted for each of the parties. Hence the shaded area represents voters who are emotionally invested commonly to all three of the major parties... you got your interpretation backwards.


Mitts:

Read what you wrote in the highlighted part above:

"Hence the shaded area represents voters who are emotionally invested commonly to all three of the major parties."

You are not making sense---"emotionally invested commonly to all 3 parties ?

You clearly dont understand what I meant by voters being "emotionally invested" in a party---voters cannot be emotionally invested in 3 parties---only the independents can be part of the shaded area---they can choose to vote for any of the 3 parties.

The shaded portion of the 3 intersecting circles represent the 20% of independent voters---the 3 parties share this 20%.



Let's assume circle A represents the PPP.

The portion of circle A that is apart from circles B and C will represent the 40% of the Guyanse voters who are emotionally invested in the PPP.

And in the shaded area---the 20% shared by the 3 parties---the PPP received 8.6% in the 2011 election.

Add 40% and 8.6% and you get 48.6%(percentege of PPP votes in 2011.

Rev
FM
Rev, with all due respect. Try not to think in one dimension plain. Perhaps it's a bit too advanced for you to comprehend that a voter can be "emotionally invested" in more than one party. Try thinking in the absolute and in at least 3D. Big Grin

Your problem is: you assumed a conclusion and then constructed your arguments. Kind of ass backwards thinking... that's dangerous.The aggregate of your samples do not account for the total population. Hence the sum of your probabilities will never add up to 1.

The loca of your axis are out of place. Hence youre illustration is likely to mislead as much as it seems to help, which leaves you the chief expositor having to make up with words what is lacking or misleading in your picture. Your rings then being misleading are only good for Hawaian dancers. partybanana Big Grin

I give you an A for for being creative. Big Grin
Mitwah
quote:
Originally posted by Mitwah:
Rev...Perhaps it's a bit too advanced for you to comprehend that a voter can be "emotionally invested" in more than one party.


Big Grin HA HA HA HA Big Grin

Mitts:

Clint Eastwood once said, "a man must know his limitations."

And yes! The Rev is fully aware of his limitations.

But I must say this to you:

You are dead wrong in your in your comment that "a voter can be emotionally invested in more than one party."

YOU CAN ONLY SLEEP ON ONE BED AT A TIME MITTS!

Same thing with being emotionally invested in a political party---you can only be emotionally invested in one party at a time---not multiple parties.

Your hero Judas Moses was emotionally invested in the PPP for 50 years, then he became a weasel and traitor and betrayed the PPP.

QUESTION:

Do you believe Judas Moses is emotionally invested in the AFC or is he just buying time in that party ?

Rev
FM
Rev A, a t first, I did not understand your so called rational motive. Your last post speaks volumes of your psychological arousal towards a preconceived desired goal; the reason for that action; the main purpose to ambush and assinate the character of one of the most honest and loyal sons from the soil of Guyana. Roll Eyes

You claim to be a Rev. You can learn from Moses to serve humanity first and foremost. Moses knows and understands why service to humanity.....; according to Sanatam Dharam:for the person one serves is really the Almighty in human form. Wink

I can understand your emotional wound , shock or hurt from the results of the last election. You should seek help soon; these scars can become lasting damage to the psychological development of a person. pleaseaa

You worry needlessly; needless worry leads to degradation of knowledge, strength and grace. Your diagram and subsequent arguments corroborate this fact. clever

Have a great day. Big Grin wavey
Mitwah
quote:
Originally posted by Mitwah:
Rev A, at first, I did not understand your so called rational motive.


Mitts:

Forget about the Rev's motive, you clearly did not comprehend the gist of the lead post, and your subsequent inane and meaningless questions proved that to be the case.

When you made the comment, "a voter can be emotionally invested in more than one party" I knew it would be a waste of time conversing with you.


RE: JUDAS MOSES

It is your prerogative to worship and honor Judas Moses.

Your wrote, "Moses knows and understands why service to humanity.....; according to Sanatam Dharam:for the person one serves is really the Almighty in human form."

The reality is Judas Moses is a weasel and a traitor who betrayed the party he was emotionally invested in for nearly 50 years.


The remainder of your post above Mitts was just psychological drivel and malarkey.

Your wrote, for example, "I can understand your emotional wound , shock or hurt from the results of the last election. You should seek help soon; these scars can become lasting damage to the psychological development of a person."

That is total bunk and hooey Mitts--like I said psychological drivel and malarkey from you. What's there to be hurt about regarding the last election--the PPP won---didn't they ?


Here is the truth Mitwah--the AFC, as long as it exists, will forever be a 3rd party that attracts the disaffected---it will never metamorphosize into a major political party---it will always be a 10% party---a welcome home for a weasel and traitor like Judas Moses.

Rev
FM
quote:
Originally posted by Mitwah:
Rev, I think you are good person.


Mitts:

The Rev believes you are a good person too.

Listen! Good people can disagree.

I know you are an ardent AFC supporter. The Rev supports the PPP.


GOING BACK TO THE LEAD POST:

With 80% of Guyanese people emotionally invested in the PPP(40%), PNC(35%) and AFC(5%), it will take a miracle for the AFC to evolve into a major political party.

IT'S JUST THE 20% INDEPENDENTS THAT ARE UP FOR GRABS IN GUYANA.

Rev
FM
quote:
Originally posted by Mitwah:
Edison failed 10,000 times before he made the electric light. Wink


Mitts:

That is correct--Edison failed 10,000 times before he got it right--and invented the light bulb.

He was once asked if he wasn't frustrated with his failures and if he was tempted to quit at any time---he replied that he learned something from every failed attempt--and that knowledge brought him closer to his eventual goal.


RE: THE AFC

Well Mitts, if the AFC pulls an Edison---and fail 10,000 times before winning a general election in Guyana---that means they would assume the presidency 50,000(10,000 x 5) years from now.

We are only in the year 2012

So if the AFC pulls an Edision they will win the Presidency in the year 52,012. lol

Rev
FM
quote:
Originally posted by Pooran_Lall:
Bai meh a wan canecutta and fowl sellah. Meh know goat a goat, sheep a sheep and fowl a fowl. dem cyant be mix up and intersex up and suh in a deep shaded area. abe nah need dem circle fuh seh who a who. suh dem a de swing votas? hehe


This is analysis paralysis. This banna going to all lenghts to prove his racist theory which is "collies for collies”. Any "coolies" that do not confirm are ingrates. Quite frankly he is a jackass.
FM
quote:
Originally posted by Rev Al:
quote:
Originally posted by Mitwah:
Edison failed 10,000 times before he made the electric light. Wink


Mitts:

That is correct--Edison failed 10,000 times before he got it right--and invented the light bulb.

He was once asked if he wasn't frustrated with his failures and if he was tempted to quit at any time---he replied that he learned something from every failed attempt--and that knowledge brought him closer to his eventual goal.


RE: THE AFC

Well Mitts, if the AFC pulls an Edison---and fail 10,000 times before winning a general election in Guyana---that means they would assume the presidency 50,000(10,000 x 5) years from now.

We are only in the year 2012

So if the AFC pulls an Edision they will win the Presidency in the year 52,012. lol

Rev


lol

Rev Al!!!! headbanging It's not my fault that you interpret things literally; it would be folly of me to explain to you that the voting results as shown by your rings are not mutually exclusive events and are not collectively exhaustive. clever

Look again and you will see that the shaded area is common to all three circles.

Try to think in the absolute and multi dimensional. Big Grin


Just remember is wan wan dutty duz build dam. Big Grin

Homework:

Plot a linear graph showing the %'ages and number of votes the parties received in the past 3 elections, even though AFC only contested 2. Use the slope of your graphs to project the results of the next election. You may assume all current conditions remain the same, else state your assumptions. Wink
Mitwah
quote:
Originally posted by Mitwah:
Rev Bhai, Coolee is not a derogative word. Why fight it?


Mitts:

My friend Krishna bhai gets very offended when the C-word is tossed around.

FC is a darkie--he does not use the C-word as a term of endearment.

The N-word is not allowed on this forum---similarly the C-word should be banned here.

Rev
FM
Rev, say Arpan to Krishna for me. Smile

The more you fight a label the more it will be stuck on you.

BTW, if you present your rings touching each other and not intersecting, I will buy your argument. This will show that events are mutually exclusive and are collectively exhaustive. The area between them becomes a "null".

How about the homework I posted above? I don't know how to post graphs. Big Grin
Mitwah
quote:
Originally posted by Mitwah:
quote:
Originally posted by Rev Al:
quote:
Originally posted by Mitwah:
Edison failed 10,000 times before he made the electric light. Wink


Mitts:

That is correct--Edison failed 10,000 times before he got it right--and invented the light bulb.

He was once asked if he wasn't frustrated with his failures and if he was tempted to quit at any time---he replied that he learned something from every failed attempt--and that knowledge brought him closer to his eventual goal.


RE: THE AFC

Well Mitts, if the AFC pulls an Edison---and fail 10,000 times before winning a general election in Guyana---that means they would assume the presidency 50,000(10,000 x 5) years from now.

We are only in the year 2012

So if the AFC pulls an Edision they will win the Presidency in the year 52,012. lol

Rev


lol

Rev Al!!!! headbanging It's not my fault that you interpret things literally; it would be folly of me to explain to you that the voting results as shown by your rings are not mutually exclusive events and are not collectively exhaustive. clever

Look again and you will see that the shaded area is common to all three circles.

Try to think in the absolute and multi dimensional. Big Grin


Just remember is wan wan dutty duz build dam. Big Grin

Homework:

Plot a linear graph showing the %'ages and number of votes the parties received in the past 3 elections, even though AFC only contested 2. Use the slope of your graphs to project the results of the next election. You may assume all current conditions remain the same, else state your assumptions. Wink



Bai Mits meh sell enuff fowl and cow milk fuh know dat percentage yuh talking bout mek sense. Revvy nah want fuh mek that one assumption bai. Revvy fugget that all de rings dem intersex at de dark part. Den some intersex between A and B alone and suh. But at de end a de day cow a cow and fowl a fowl.
FM
quote:
Originally posted by Mitwah:
Homework:

Plot a linear graph showing the %'ages and number of votes the parties received in the past 3 elections, even though AFC only contested 2. Use the slope of your graphs to project the results of the next election. You may assume all current conditions remain the same, else state your assumptions. Wink


Mitts:

Give that assignment to AFC's economist TK---or a student in Stats 101---they'll rather enjoy it

In a perfect world or in theory the results of your homework assignment may may be accurate in its prediction---the real world is different.

Listen Mitts,

HUMAN BEHAVIOR IS REPETITIVE.

You can change the percentages I gave in the lead post regarding Guyanese voters who are emotionally invested in the 3 parties:

PPP...40%

PNC...35%

AFC...5%


But HUMAN BEHAVIOR dictates that those who are emotionally invested in a party will have blind loyaly to that party and will vote for that party regardless.


RE: THE INDEPENDENTS(20% of Guyanese voters)



These are the voters who will choose among the 3 parties---the shaded portion of the 3 interescting circles(3 parties) represent this 20%.


My argument is the AFC will first have to dominate among the independents---win most of the 20%---before they can even hope to chisel away at those emotionally invested in the PPP and PNC.


CONCLUSION:

The AFC for the forseeable future will remain a 10% party.

As of now, 5% of the Guyanese people are emotionally invested in the AFC---the other 5.3% they received in 2011 came from the INDEPENENTS(the 20% of Guyanese voters).

I dont forsee the AFC metamorphosizing into a major political party in this century.

Rev
FM
quote:
Originally posted by Rev Al:
quote:
Originally posted by Mitwah:
Homework:

Plot a linear graph showing the %'ages and number of votes the parties received in the past 3 elections, even though AFC only contested 2. Use the slope of your graphs to project the results of the next election. You may assume all current conditions remain the same, else state your assumptions. Wink


Mitts:

Give that assignment to AFC's economist TK---or a student in Stats 101---they'll rather enjoy it

In a perfect world or in theory the results of your homework assignment may may be accurate in its prediction---the real world is different.

Listen Mitts,

HUMAN BEHAVIOR IS REPETITIVE.

You can change the percentages I gave in the lead post regarding Guyanese voters who are emotionally invested in the 3 parties:

PPP...40%

PNC...35%

AFC...5%


But HUMAN BEHAVIOR dictates that those who are emotionally invested in a party will have blind loyaly to that party and will vote for that party regardless.


RE: THE INDEPENDENTS(20% of Guyanese voters)



These are the voters who will choose among the 3 parties---the shaded portion of the 3 interescting circles(3 parties) represent this 20%.


My argument is the AFC will first have to dominate among the independents---win most of the 20%---before they can even hope to chisel away at those emotionally invested in the PPP and PNC.


CONCLUSION:

The AFC for the forseeable future will remain a 10% party.

As of now, 5% of the Guyanese people are emotionally invested in the AFC---the other 5.3% they received in 2011 came from the INDEPENENTS(the 20% of Guyanese voters).

I dont forsee the AFC metamorphosizing into a major political party in this century.

Rev


Rev, I never thought you would quit your own game. Frown

The people who voted AFC are sophisticated. They are able to rise over the bondage of their emotions, racial profile and vote on the issues.

The AFC shall persevere!!! Big Grin flag
Mitwah
quote:
Originally posted by Mitwah:
The people who voted AFC are sophisticated. They are able to rise over the bondage of their emotions, racial profile and vote on the issues.

The AFC shall persevere!!!
Big Grin flag




Mitts:

You have just astutely articulated why the Alliance For Change(AFC) is destined to forever remain a 3rd party with a sparce following---a 10% party. Big Grin

To win a general election, a party must appeal to the masses.

The AFC can keep and persevere with the "sophisticated"---the PPP, on the other hand, will be always welcome the simple, the common, the ordinary, and the unpretentious masses. Big Grinlol

Rev
FM
quote:
Originally posted by Mitwah:
Rev I shall be away for the next week or so. Meanwhile pleaseaa do the graph as I so humbly requested of you. If you na want fuh post um hey, den PM it to me nuh.


Mitts:

The Rev prides himself in being a man of kindness, compassion and helpfulness. I will therefore assist you with your homework assignment.


Here was your initial request:

quote:
Originally posted by Mitwah:
Homework:

Plot a linear graph showing the %'ages and number of votes the parties received in the past 3 elections, even though AFC only contested 2. Use the slope of your graphs to project the results of the next election. You may assume all current conditions remain the same, else state your assumptions. Wink



SOLUTION:

Let's us first examine the percentage of votes acquired by the parties in the last 3 elections---and the total votes cast:

quote:

2001...PPP(53.0%)...PNC(41.8%)---403,734 total votes

2006...PPP(54.6%)...PNC(34.0%)...AFC(8.4%)---336,375 total votes

2011...PPP(48.6%)...PNC(40.8%)...AFC(10.3%)---343,236 total votes



PROJECTING THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION

* Assuming the PNC gets the same percentage of votes it received in 2011

* Assuming that the AFC---with a black presidential candidate returns to their 2006 percentage




HERE ARE THE PROJECTED RESULTS OF THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION IN GUYANA:

PPP...50.5%

PNC...40.8%

AFC...8.4%


There you have it Mitts, the PPP is projected to regain the majority by winning 50.5% of the votes in the next election. Big Grin

Rev
FM

Add Reply

×
×
×
×
×
Link copied to your clipboard.
×
×