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FM
Former Member

We told these huckster freaks (Nehru, Baseman, Yuji, Rama, Billy Ram Balgobind, etc) here for years this will happen. These curbside hucksters said we were against progress. But, fact is the microeconomics was quite convincing that the project will fail. Hucksters like Baseman said he is a doer...we are talkers...book sense is no sense. That public investments have to be done wisely. Dey cuss us nastily. You cannot be reckless with the people's money. State activism is important. Pack of morons!

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Sell Marriott quickly, auditor urges gov’t

By Staff Writer On December 13, 2015 @ 5:13 am In Local News

Government is being urged to “proceed with haste” to sell the Marriott Hotel in light of uncertainty about the financial viability of its operations and rising costs that could take the final price tag for the project to at least US$98 million.

Additionally, with a less-than-desirable occupancy rate within the initial months of the hotel’s operations, there is a “serious risk” of default in relation to a Republic Bank loan used for construction, according to the forensic audit of the hotel that as conducted by former Auditor-General Anand Goolsarran.

The audit report, obtained by Stabroek News, details the escalating costs of the venture as well as the fact that the former government proceeded to channel funds into construction without parliamentary approval and struck a deal that would give Hong Kong investors full ownership for just over 10% of the total cost of the project.

It ultimately urges government to either sell the hotel or retain a majority interest but pointed out that in the latter case, there is uncertainty about its financial viability.

20151213marriotthotel“The Government of Guyana should proceed with haste to advertise for the sale of the hotel, bearing in mind that the Management Agreement with Marriott International is for 30 years renewable for another 10 years. The Agreement does provide for the sale of the hotel to a reputable individual or firm so that it can roll-over to the new owners,” the report says.

“Alternatively, the Government could retain majority interest in the hotel and offer 49% of shares to the public and institutional investors, such as banks and insurance companies. However, the risk still remains in terms of the financial viability of the operations of the hotel,” it adds.

Goolsarran submitted the report to the APNU+AFC government on October 27, but there has been no word from the David Granger administration on it.

The report revealed that the total cost of construction of the Marriott was US$56.609 million as at July 7, 2015, and as of the same date, state resources totalling US$49.042 million had been expended on the project.

Another audit into government’s holding company, the National Industrial and Commercial Investments Limited (NICIL) had said that from 2010 to July 7, 2015, NICIL had sunk US$41.682 million into the construction of the hotel but the Marriott audit reported Executive Director of NICIL Winston Brassington telling a board meeting in May that over US$43 million was spent by the entity on the project up to that point.

Both forensic audits were done by Goolsarran.

Goolsarran also pointed out that the Republic Bank loan of US$15.25 million for construction is ranked priority to that of NICIL and is secured by “debenture and mortgages.” He declared that these conditions have serious implications should AHI default in payment. The loan is repayable at rates of 9.15% and 8.65% during construction and post-construction phases, respectively, via 26 equal, blended, semi-annual payments of principal and interest. However, there is an 18 month moratorium on interest and a 24 month moratorium on principal from the date of first disbursement.

“There is a serious risk of default in the repayment of principal and interest on the Republic Bank loan should the hotel continue to make losses due to the less-than-desirable occupancy rate. In the circumstances, it would be necessary for the loan to be paid off at the earliest opportunity. This is especially so, since the Republic Bank has a lien on the hotel and surrounding area via debenture and mortgages,” he said.

The report also said that given the statement by Brassington in relation to the absence of market intelligence on the operations of casinos, it is advisable not to proceed with the construction and outfitting of the Entertainment Complex estimated to cost US$12 million.

“The results of the studies of both the Marriott International and HVS Consulting hinge on a fully operational Entertainment Complex and appeared too optimistic. The Entertainment Complex is too risky a venture for the Government to undertake. There are also indications of possible amendments to the Marriott International’s Management Contract “including whether or not the Agreement can be terminated within a 5-year period and whether the projections made by the HVS study are likely to materialize,” he said.

Rising costs

Goolsarran pointed out that costs have kept going up. “Since 2009, the estimated direct cost of construction kept escalating at a significant rate. The original estimate for the construction of a 190,467 square foot hotel (the actual construction size) had worked out to US$33.220 million, excluding outfitting costs of US$10.404 million. It has since risen to almost double, having regard to the expenditure incurred to date and the projected cost to complete the hotel,” the report says.

“When other cost considerations (e.g. design and branding, re-routing of the sewerage system and interest foregone during construction phase) are taken into account, the project (as opposed to the direct construction cost of the hotel) is estimated to cost at least US$98 million. This is quite an expensive venture, considering that: (a) only $15.5 million has so far been financed from external sources; and (b) the risks involved should the hotel not turn out to be a profitable venture,” it adds.

The report says that in the first two and a half months of commercial operations, the hotel made a “house” loss of approximately G$60 million, with an occupancy rate of 29.8%. The hotel opened on April 16 this year. A review of the Marriott’s consolidated profit and loss statement as of June 30, 2015, indicated that the loss was mainly due to the less-than-anticipated income from rooms (16.9% below budget), coupled with the high cost of utilities (73.9% higher than budget). The occupancy rate during this period was 29.8%.

In response, the hotel’s special purpose company, the Atlantic Hotel Inc. (AHI) commented that “on the basis of management information, the hotel is performing in accordance with budget and is projected to make an EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxation and Depreciation and Amortisation) of about US$100K or more by year end (latest estimate). At this time, the hotel, like any new project, would take some time to ramp up to optimal operations. Utility costs were substantially reduced although there is still a dispute.”

Hong Kong investors

The report also points out that the project was structured so that Two Hong Kong businessmen—Victor How Chung Chan and Xu Han—would have become the ultimate beneficiary of the venture. Their company, ACE Square Investments Ltd, pulled out of the project after the APNU+AFC government came to power.

Goolsarran noted that ACE Square Investments Ltd. had not contributed to the equity of the project, since, according to the Shareholders’ Agreement, such contribution would only be made when the hotel is completed.

“NICIL therefore had to use its own resources, along with the Republic Bank loan, to construct the hotel. When the hotel begins operation, ACE Square had the option of acquiring NICIL’s equity interest. It therefore means that for an estimated US$98 million in the total cost of the project, ACE Square would contribute only US$12 million or 12% and will secure 100% ownership rights,” he said.

“The whole arrangement involving the financing of construction of the hotel appeared to be deliberately cast to enable ACE Square to become the ultimate beneficiary of the project, with no financial contribution during the construction phase of the hotel,” he declared.

AHI has since indicated that ACE Square is no longer under active consideration as an investor.

No approval for funding

The Marriott was controversially built, mostly with taxpayers’ money, and details on the operations have been hard to come by. Goolsarran highlighted the secrecy that shrouded the deal, while pointing out that several laws were flouted.

“State revenues from the proceeds of dividends from public corporations and the sale of public assets were diverted away from the Treasury and were used mainly to fund the construction of the Marriott Hotel without Parliamentary approval and in clear violation of Articles 216 and 217 respectively of the Constitution as well as the corresponding sections of the FMA Act. The Government may therefore wish to invoke the requirements of Sections 49, 76 and 85 of the FMA Act in relation to this as well as other issues raised in this report. Cabinet, collectively and individually, does not enjoy immunity as it relates to the application of the above sections, and for defying the wishes of the National Assembly as contained in resolution of 17 December 2012 for the government to cease funding the project without Parliamentary approval,” he said.

In tracing the history of the hotel from 2009, Goolsarran pointed out that Cabinet’s decision to establish AHI to own the hotel and to effectively vest all authority in one person to advance the project was a significant setback. For six years, Brassington, also the Executive Director of NICIL, was the sole director of AHI and it was not until May 8 this year, two days before the general elections, that three additional Directors were appointed; namely, Ramesh Ghir, the Chief Executive Officer of the Cheddi Jagan International Airport; Dhaneshwar Deonarine, the Deputy Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Tourism; and businessman Clinton Urling, who was on the PPP/C list of candidates.

Further, Goolsarran said that the evidence clearly suggests that Cabinet took the decision to proceed with the project without the benefit of a feasibility study to determine the project’s economic and long-term viability. “There was also unnecessary haste to proceed with the construction as evidenced by the award of the contract within days of the 28 November 2011 general elections. Such haste might have contributed in no small measure to the significant cost escalations,” he said.

The report also pointed out that the contractor for the construction of the hotel, SCG International, was selected at a time when the company was facing allegation charges for corruption in Trinidad and Tobago and the Engineering Supervision Consultant, M A Angeliades Inc., had faced criminal charges in a New York court and was disqualified from participating in the projects of the School Construction Authority until July, 2015.

He also noted that NICIL was yet to provide details of the second bidder’s original and revised bid price to enable him to confirm the basis of the selection of the contractor. “The award of the construction contract for over US$50 million days before the 28 November 2011 and without prior Cabinet approval should also be a source of serious concern,” the report says.

20151213marriotdec

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Here are some implicit costs to make an unwise project work. These tax funds could have been spent on UG, healthcare and education...these hucksters don't understand every policy decision has two costs.

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Marriott tax exemptions $1.2b in 30 months

By Staff Writer On December 14, 2015 @ 5:18 am In Local News

Tax exemptions for the Marriott Hotel project from January 2013 to July 2015 stand at $1.2 billion, according to the forensic audit into the project which also highlighted the other concessions it received.

The report, a copy of which was obtained by Stabroek News, revealed that tax exemptions granted to Atlantic Hotels Inc (AHI) for the period January 2013 to July 2015 in respect of building materials, furnishings and vehicles, amounted to $1.169 billion. AHI is the hotel’s special purpose company.

“Unlike other hotels which enjoy a 50% waiver, AHI was granted 100% as per agreement with the Government. Therefore, the additional benefit enjoyed by AHI amounted to $584.5 million, equivalent to US$2.821 million,” the report says.

The report also highlighted that the land on which the hotel was constructed was sold below its market value. Executive Director of government’s holding company, the National Industrial and Commercial Investments Limited (NICIL), Winston Brassington indicated that there were two estimates. One was in 2009 by Rodrigues Architects Ltd which put a value of $985 million, equivalent to US$4.8 million to the land; and the other in 2013 by the State Valuation Office which put the value at $150 million.

“The land was vested in NICIL by Order No 61 of 2010 dated 20 November 2010 and was sold to AHI for US$1 million. This is obviously not an arm’s length transaction, and therefore the full market value should be used in arriving at the cost of the project,” the report said.

It noted that in relation to NICIL’s loan of US$15.5 million for the project, NICIL will be repaid the principal only at the end of 15 years. “NICIL will therefore be subsidising the project to the extent of interest charges foregone. As at June 2015, the estimated interest charges foregone based on the pattern of disbursements would amount to US$3.191 million at an interest rate of 9.15%,” the report says. The percentage is the same charged by Republic Bank which is providing a loan to the project.

The report also pointed out that NICIL has provided additional financing to the project of US$21.816 million as at 30 June 2015 and for which the estimated interest charges foregone are computed at US$3.828 million.

Further, it pointed out that NICIL’s loan is subordinate to the syndicated loan provided by Republic Bank and should the project run into financial difficulties, the latter will get preference over the former in terms of loan repayment.

It pointed out too that NICIL is also likely to provide more funding as the entertainment complex is yet to be constructed. Initially, the outfitting cost of the entertainment complex which includes a casino, nightclub and restaurant was estimated to be at least US$4 million which the operators were expected to fund. Since no operators have yet been identified, NICIL is likely to bear this cost.

The report quoted Brassington as saying that “This aspect of the project is being deemed Phase 2 and is currently being put together in proper project management format. Consultants have been hired to provide design as well as casino specialty services in consultation with MI (Marriott International). A final cost on this has not been determined but is likely to be above the US$4 million budgeted.”

According to the report, Brassington indicated that NICIL would provide loan financing, and the related cost was expected to increase from US$8 million to US$12 million. He also stated that a final cost for the outfitting of the Complex had not been determined but was likely to be above the US$4 million budgeted.

Not to proceed

The report said that it is advisable not to proceed with the construction and outfitting of the Entertainment Complex and stated that the results of the studies of both the Marriott International and HVS Consulting hinge on a fully operational Entertainment Complex and appeared too optimistic. The Entertainment Complex is too risky a venture for the Government to undertake, it said.

The report also pointed out that NICIL received amounts of $300 million and $353 million from the Guyana Forestry Commis-sion and the Guyana Water Inc. which it expended on the re-routing of the sewerage system, the drilling of a well for the Marriott Hotel and other works.

Other fiscal concessions granted include a 10-year Corporation Tax holiday commencing the first year of commercial operations; a 10-year waiver of property tax and withholding tax (including payment of interest and dividends to debt providers and equity holders); and Customs Duty and Excise Tax waivers on capital repairs or replacements including machinery, equipment and buildings where the total cost of such capital repairs or replacement is not less than US$10,000, and a “one-off” retrofitting of the project within the ten-year period from the commencement of commercial operations.

Meantime, the report revealed that in terms of the selection of the engineering supervision consultant, M. A. Angeliades Inc. and CEMCO Consul-tants Inc. had submitted proposals in the amounts of US$1.068 million and US$1.614 million respectively, compared with an estimate of US$1 million.

No professional engineer

It said that a review of the professional background of M. A. Angeliades Inc.’s team proposed for the project indicated that there was no professional engineer on the team. The Executive Project Manager was a Chartered Quantity Surveyor while the Assistant Project Manager, although having some experience in construction projects, did not have the requisite academic and professional background. The team was also to comprise Raman Kumar, as the Site Engineer, Edwin Semexant, Project Superintendent/Quality Control Engineer, and two other staff members.

“However, there was no evidence that Mr Kumar had on-site presence at the project. In addition, the services of the Assistant Project Manager were terminated after about six months while Mr Semexant returned to New York after a brief period of engagement,” the report said.

AHI, in response, said that it was satisfied with the qualifications and experience of the Project Manager and he had met the requirements set out in the bidding documents.

However, Goolsarran quoted correspondence dated 7 May 2015 to the Project Manager from Brassington which indicated that he was unhappy with the services provide.

M.A. Angeliades Inc. had claimed for extended supervisory services and Brassington wrote that: “We note that the resource allocation matrix forwarded to us does not reflect continuous engagement of a majority of the above persons or agencies. We submit that had the Consultant employed said personnel it would have substantially mitigated its costs for the extra time spent in the performance of its services and the cost of other expenses incurred. The Consultant dismissed its quality surveyor and did not employ a replacement. In fact, contrary to its contractual obligations, the Consultant has employed several persons without notice to AHI or provision of their CVs etc. It is our observation that the Consultant is severely under-staffed and has operated for a long period with only three people on its management team.”

Goolsarran declared that the comments from Brassington would suggest significant shortcomings on the part of M. A. Angeliades Inc. to effectively carry out their duties to oversee the work of the contractor on behalf of the Government.

The report noted that the duration of the engineering supervision contract was three months after the defects liability period of one year is over. However, at the time of the audit, the M. A. Angeliades Inc’s team was no longer is place, and CEMCO – the firm that was overlooked in the first place – was engaged to complete the supervision of the project.

Meantime, it was noted that in August 2015, the hotel saw a 52% occupancy. “It should be noted, however, that August is the peak month in terms of occupancy rate, and the overall projection for 2015 is 39.3%,” the report said.

In noting the projected earnings for the rest of the year and the loan repayments, the report said that “when interest charges, loan repayment, and provision for depreciation and amortization are taken into account, the year 2016 and subsequent years are likely to be extremely challenging financially, unless there is a significant improvement in the occupancy rate from the projected level of 39.3% for 2015.”

The report also traced the sequence of events that led to the signing of the contract and said that it is evident that the decision by the Government to proceed with the construction of the Marriott Hotel preceded any feasibility study and was made without the benefit of an informed review of the results of such a study. “There was therefore no economically sound basis for Cabinet’s decision at the time to proceed with the project, and any subsequent study must be viewed with some degree of caution,” it said.

AHI, in response, said it did not agree with the conclusion.

The report also pointed out that the contract for construction with Chinese firm SCG International was signed just 12 days before the 28 November 2011 elections, which is not normal practice for such a large contract to be executed so close to national elections.

“In addition, there was neither board approval nor the approval of Cabinet at the time the contract was entered into. It was not until 27 September 2012, some eleven months later, that such approval was granted, with a retroactive effective date of 30 September 2011,” it said.

 

FM

The fool and REJECT TK who is wondering from pillar to post is quoting the Jackass Goolsarran.

Take your hogwash elsewhere.

No wonder not one single Government of Guyana has or will ever seek your so called advice.

FM

Interesting usage of words

"curbside hucksters" and "huckster freaks"

Just for information...

TK  need not be vindicated by an appointment with GOG. He is an Establishment person in the US

Vish M
yuji22 posted:

The fool and REJECT TK who is wondering from pillar to post is quoting the Jackass Goolsarran.

Take your hogwash elsewhere.

No wonder not one single Government of Guyana has or will ever seek your so called advice.

In your case it ie more than willful ignorance that you do not grasp t he implications above against the backdrop of admonitions against the construction of this white elephant. It is clearly a case of a fool with claims to wisdom because he is a fool.

Governments are organizations that are often run by pig headed idiots who hold grudges and make choices based on ideological allegiance and not on good sense. Proper vetting of a persons worth is based on the objective status of their accepted in academia and have produced works that such a community deemed worthy. One does not need a government or the pratings of an idiot to validate ones worth given such measures are sacrosanct and

FM
TK posted:

LOL! Balahoo Brahmin...you're not going to stay at Marriott to help out?

I take offense to the use of balahoo since a balahoo needs some expertise to operate Brahamins do not. They simply need to believe a lie.

FM
Nehru posted:
Vish M posted:

Interesting usage of words

"curbside hucksters" and "huckster freaks"

Just for information...

TK  need not be vindicated by an appointment with GOG. He is an Establishment person in the US

TK is an ASS!!   He spew GARBAGE and thinks he is a brilliant Economist the same way Saddam thought he was the greatest Leader!!!

He posted the work of others corroborating in real terms what he wrote eons ago about and said was the case based on his economic acumen.

That you still mouth the same ignorant tripe when  real word facts stares you in the face informs us who is raking the garbage.

FM
Stormborn posted:
Nehru posted:
Vish M posted:

Interesting usage of words

"curbside hucksters" and "huckster freaks"

Just for information...

TK  need not be vindicated by an appointment with GOG. He is an Establishment person in the US

TK is an ASS!!   He spew GARBAGE and thinks he is a brilliant Economist the same way Saddam thought he was the greatest Leader!!!

He posted the work of others corroborating in real terms what he wrote eons ago about and said was the case based on his economic acumen.

That you still mouth the same ignorant tripe when  real word facts stares you in the face informs us who is raking the garbage.

Good to see at least one person buying his Snakeoil.  Sip and enjoy.

Nehru
Stormborn posted:
TK posted:

LOL! Balahoo Brahmin...you're not going to stay at Marriott to help out?

I take offense to the use of balahoo since a balahoo needs some expertise to operate Brahamins do not. They simply need to believe a lie.

I am sorry about that. It does take a lot of skills to use a balahoo. I will find another word to describe our resident high caste Brahmin

FM

There is risk in any investment. The Marriot project may have cost much more than budgeted. We must not just listen to the screams of the present government since they refused to hire an accounting firm that is independent and ethical to do the audit.  Employing party supporters like Goolsaran who has long and sordid history with the PNC gov'ts of the past is insulting to all Guyanese. Don't expect an fair assessment from him. Being an Indian with a doctorate does not make him a fair and unbiased individual. People are too smart to buy such ploy.

 

Billy Ram Balgobin
Last edited by Billy Ram Balgobin
Nehru posted:

HAHAHA  Donket Cart Economy as explained by a JACKASS!!!!!!!!!!!

Pavi...when last you went to the Marriott? I was there last month. Went over for breakfast. They charge US$26 for breakfast. Pegasus charges $21, Hilton Barbados US$18 (last August), Hyatt Regency in TT $17 and high end Hyatt in Sarasota charges US$13. Only the Ritz Carlton in Sarasota charges US$26 for breakfast. LOL! Pavi...you need to help out yuh bais dem.

FM
Billy Ram Balgobin posted:

There is risk in any investment. The Marriot project may have cost much more than budgeted. We must not just listen to the screams of the present government since they refused to hire an accounting firm that is independent and ethical to do the audit.  Employing party supporters like Goolsaran who has long and sordid history with the PNC gov'ts of the past is insulting to all Guyanese. Don't expect an fair assessment from him. Being an Indian with a doctorate does not make him a fair and unbiased individual. People are too smart to buy such ploy.

 

LOL! LOL Just a big fat LOL!!

FM
Billy Ram Balgobin posted:

TK,

 

I hope you know that most of the times economists are wrong about financial matters. It's hard to predict accurately of the outcome of any investments.

LOL

LOL...just a big fat LOL! I would say politicians are wrong most times...not economists...who are well aware of a principle known as the forecast error...

FM
TK posted:

I am sorry about that. It does take a lot of skills to use a balahoo. I will find another word to describe our resident high caste Brahmin

He does like it when I call 'im "patacake boy" he does flap around the place aimlessly.

cain
TK posted:
Nehru posted:

HAHAHA  Donket Cart Economy as explained by a JACKASS!!!!!!!!!!!

Pavi...when last you went to the Marriott? I was there last month. Went over for breakfast. They charge US$26 for breakfast. Pegasus charges $21, Hilton Barbados US$18 (last August), Hyatt Regency in TT $17 and high end Hyatt in Sarasota charges US$13. Only the Ritz Carlton in Sarasota charges US$26 for breakfast. LOL! Pavi...you need to help out yuh bais dem.

Suh you had a Guyanese breakfast,was it bake and saltfish or baigan choka with seike roti?

Django
Django posted:
TK posted:
Nehru posted:

HAHAHA  Donket Cart Economy as explained by a JACKASS!!!!!!!!!!!

Pavi...when last you went to the Marriott? I was there last month. Went over for breakfast. They charge US$26 for breakfast. Pegasus charges $21, Hilton Barbados US$18 (last August), Hyatt Regency in TT $17 and high end Hyatt in Sarasota charges US$13. Only the Ritz Carlton in Sarasota charges US$26 for breakfast. LOL! Pavi...you need to help out yuh bais dem.

Suh you had a Guyanese breakfast,was it bake and saltfish or baigan choka with seike roti?

It was a Guyanese breakfast. I was in the mood for bake and saltfish. Peg only serves this on weekends, so I walked over to the Bharriot and they also don't have bake and saltfish...so I had another Guyanese meal. Ah ring meh ears...Grand Coastal serves bake and salt fish everyday. The price a place charges reveals a lot of information about micro and macro conditions...things are extremely expensive in Guyana. They have also been hiding the true inflation rate there.

FM
Billy Ram Balgobin posted:

Guyanese business people are yet to learn how to do business successfully.  Rip offs everywhere in Guyana.

Billy..with a population of under three quarter million,how will they  survive without 100% mark up on products.

Django
Billy Ram Balgobin posted:

There is risk in any investment. The Marriot project may have cost much more than budgeted. .

 

Which is why the hotel shouldn't have been built, except by the private sector, which would then bear the whole burden if it fails.

Where is the evidence that Guyana had such a dire need for Marriott.  We don't attract tourists, neither do we host conferences beyond the odd CARICOM meeting.

So why?

.

The Indo KKK don't know. And the Grand Wizard will never admit the truth.

FM
TK posted:
Billy Ram Balgobin posted:

TK,

 

I hope you know that most of the times economists are wrong about financial matters. It's hard to predict accurately of the outcome of any investments.

LOL

LOL...just a big fat LOL! I would say politicians are wrong most times...not economists...who are well aware of a principle known as the forecast error...

Which is why politicians should leave hotels to the private sector.

FM
TK posted:
Billy Ram Balgobin posted:

TK,

 

I hope you know that most of the times economists are wrong about financial matters. It's hard to predict accurately of the outcome of any investments.

LOL

LOL...just a big fat LOL! I would say politicians are wrong most times...not economists...who are well aware of a principle known as the forecast error...

TK, I do not think that economists are the only one aware of or knowledgeable about forecast  errors. This seems to be a claim of academic elitism.

Z
caribny posted:
TK posted:
Billy Ram Balgobin posted:

TK,

 

I hope you know that most of the times economists are wrong about financial matters. It's hard to predict accurately of the outcome of any investments.

LOL

LOL...just a big fat LOL! I would say politicians are wrong most times...not economists...who are well aware of a principle known as the forecast error...

Which is why politicians should leave hotels to the private sector.

Is the government if Guyana the only government in the West Indies that funded a hotel? 

 

Z
Zed posted:
TK posted:
Billy Ram Balgobin posted:

TK,

 

I hope you know that most of the times economists are wrong about financial matters. It's hard to predict accurately of the outcome of any investments.

LOL

LOL...just a big fat LOL! I would say politicians are wrong most times...not economists...who are well aware of a principle known as the forecast error...

TK, I do not think that economists are the only one aware of or knowledgeable about forecast  errors. This seems to be a claim of academic elitism.

Good for you! Yuh should have told Jagdeo about that when he was pushing the Bharriot with the sole objective of oligarchic expropriation.

FM

How can anyone call it a miscalculation when the evidence was clear for the day that the project was announced that it was a scam. The reasons given to build it were full of holes; bullet holes. Somebody was hoping to get a big fat deposit into a foreign bank account from a Hong Kong based "investor". Bu the election put a spanner in the works.

Mr.T

When revenues from oil start to flow you and I would be very grateful for a modern hotel like the Marriot. It may appear as a bad investment now, but in the future as more people travel to this country the Marriot would be the place to accommodate those who prefer international standards.

Billy Ram Balgobin
Zed posted:
caribny posted:
TK posted:
Billy Ram Balgobin posted:

TK,

 

I hope you know that most of the times economists are wrong about financial matters. It's hard to predict accurately of the outcome of any investments.

LOL

LOL...just a big fat LOL! I would say politicians are wrong most times...not economists...who are well aware of a principle known as the forecast error...

Which is why politicians should leave hotels to the private sector.

Is the government if Guyana the only government in the West Indies that funded a hotel? 

 

When you explain to me that tourism is a vital sector in Guyana, and that hosting conference, or conventions is a huge economic activity for Guyana, then you can then scream that if Jamaica and Barbados gov'ts own hotels, so can Guyana.

 

There is EXCESS hotel capacity in G/town.  No need for an additional hotel, and the PPP did not outline a plan to suggest that G/town based tourism would be a new areas of economic activity.  Indeed the place was a cesspit, and, to the credit of APNU, seems to be considerably less so.

 

What Guyana sorely needs, if it is to attract tourists, is improved infra structure in the regions of Guyana where tourists visit.  Expensive and unreliable flights, or dangerously primitive bush trails are the only way to get tourists to the interior sites of interest.

FM
Billy Ram Balgobin posted:

When revenues from oil start to flow you and I would be very grateful for a modern hotel like the Marriot. It may appear as a bad investment now, but in the future as more people travel to this country the Marriot would be the place to accommodate those who prefer international standards.

I don't think manufacturing barrels of coconut oil will attract significant investment. Crude Aile nah deh fuh Guyana.

FM
Billy Ram Balgobin posted:

When revenues from oil start to flow you and I would be very grateful for a modern hotel like the Marriot. It may appear as a bad investment now, but in the future as more people travel to this country the Marriot would be the place to accommodate those who prefer international standards.

Oil folks will stay in what ever facilities which are available.  Cannot imagine that the hotels in Kinshasa are that lavish, yet those after the minerals of the Dem Rep of Congo go there.

FM

Guyana is a like a donkey cart with two drivers fighting to drive it. One is the PPP and the other is the PNC. Imagine if these two drivers are given a tractor trailer to drive what would happen? They would mistakenly throw it into reverse gear and end up in a trench. Thank god the dankey cart, slow as it is, does not go in reverse.

Billy Ram Balgobin
Last edited by Billy Ram Balgobin

Suriname got oil and a refinery even these days. But that doesn't mean that they are isolated from financial worries. The low price of oil is hitting them hard like hell. Guyana could easily have found itself in the same situation if we were having to rely on oil. As faith has it, luckily we aren't pumping it out of the sea yet. That's the most expensive place to get oil from right now.

Mr.T
caribny posted:
Billy Ram Balgobin posted:

When revenues from oil start to flow you and I would be very grateful for a modern hotel like the Marriot. It may appear as a bad investment now, but in the future as more people travel to this country the Marriot would be the place to accommodate those who prefer international standards.

Oil folks will stay in what ever facilities which are available.  Cannot imagine that the hotels in Kinshasa are that lavish, yet those after the minerals of the Dem Rep of Congo go there.

You are too pessimistic about huge projects.  There is a shortage of competition as well as quality hotels in Guyana.  What you call hotels in Guyana are nothing short of cheap Guyanese guest house where people for "short time". The Marriott is needed. Let's not be so pessimistic. We can do it.

Billy Ram Balgobin
caribny posted

Oil folks will stay in what ever facilities which are available.  Cannot imagine that the hotels in Kinshasa are that lavish, yet those after the minerals of the Dem Rep of Congo go there.

Be careful what you type before making sure of the situation.

http://www.kempinski.com/en/ki...leuve-congo/welcome/

Mr.T
Mr.T posted:

Suriname got oil and a refinery even these days. But that doesn't mean that they are isolated from financial worries. The low price of oil is hitting them hard like hell. Guyana could easily have found itself in the same situation if we were having to rely on oil. As faith has it, luckily we aren't pumping it out of the sea yet. That's the most expensive place to get oil from right now.

Suriname's problem is the double whammy of sharp drops in oil and gold prices.  Their budget assumes higher prices and so they now find themselves in a deficit, as the impacts spreads into the distribution/construction sectors.

Assuming that Exxon will drill at these current prices, Guyana would bake in lower prices, and so wouldn't have suffered.  Our problem is mainly gold, which is what hid the PPPs incompetence when prices soared several years ago.

FM

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