Moody's Analytics election model predicts Clinton win

November 1,2016 Source

Low gas prices and President Barack Obama's high approval ratings are key factors that favor Democrat Hillary Clinton winning the White House in next week's election, according to a model from Moody's Analytics that has accurately predicted the last nine U.S. presidential contests.

Clinton is forecast to pick up 332 Electoral College votes against 206 for Republican Donald Trump, Moody's Analytics predicted on Tuesday in the final update of its model before Election Day on Nov. 8. That would match Obama's margin of victory over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in 2012.

The Reuters-Ipsos States of the Nation project also predicts a Clinton win, with a 95 percent probability of her winning at least 278 electoral votes. A candidate needs to win at least 270 electoral votes to be elected president.

The Moody's Analytics model is based on a combination of state-level economic conditions and political history, and has correctly called the outcome of each presidential election since Republican Ronald Reagan unseated Democrat Jimmy Carter in 1980.

Rather than focus on the individual candidates in a race, the model instead centers on whether current economic and political conditions favor the incumbent party in the White House. This year those factors point to Clinton becoming the 45th U.S. president.

The economic factors Moody's measures include the two-year percentage changes in real personal income per household, as well as house and gasoline prices.

Among the political factors weighed, Moody's said the most important is the share of the vote in any one state that went to the incumbent party in the previous election. It also takes into account voter fatigue and the incumbent president's approval ratings.

This year, with Obama enjoying some of his highest job approval ratings since his first year in office in 2009 and gasoline prices holding steady at well-below-average levels, the model suggests the Democrats will win their third straight presidential election, Moody's said. That would mark the first time since the 1988 election of Republican George H.W. Bush that one party has won three consecutive presidential contests.

Moody's warns, however, that its model does not take into account any individual characteristics of specific candidates.

"Given the unusual nature of the 2016 election cycle to date, it is very possible that voters will react to changing economic and political conditions differently than they have in past election cycles, placing some risk in the model outcome, particularly state-by-state projections," Moody's analytics economist Dan White wrote in the report.

(Reporting By Dan Burns; Editing by Jonathan Oatis)

Hillary is climbing an uphill battle with Blacks and undecided voters. Trump will surprise a lot of naysayers on election day. 

And while the numbers track voters' party affiliations, not all Democrats are voting for Hillary Clinton, and not all Republicans are supporting Donald Trump.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/01/...ecreasing/index.html

Shifts are occurring but the current projections show that Hillary Clinton is still in the lead.

Even if Donald Trump wins most of the eight crucial states, Hillary Clinton will still win the election.

Projections show that Donald Trump must win all of the current crucial states; an impossible task.

There are major shifts but they are in Trump's favour.

Only a week ago, ABC polls had Hillary 12 yes, twelve points ahead, the same ABC poll now has Trump ahead by ONE percent as of today.

While Hillary seems to have the easier path to victory, the polls have tightened and Trump now has a good chance of pulling an election upset.

We will know for sure next week.

Until then, let the election anxiety continue. I am waiting for another Election Bombshell to expose the crooked Hillary even further downhill.

Prince posted:

Hillary is climbing an uphill battle with Blacks and undecided voters. Trump will surprise a lot of naysayers on election day. 

Blacks are either voting Hillary or not voting. What they will NOT do is vote for some one who is overjoyed that he has the support of the KKK and who did NOTHING when his supporters attacked blacks, EVEN black GOP representatives.

In fact the director of Trump's black outreach for FL was tossed out of a meeting.

If Trump couldn't even be bothered to know who is doing his black outreach in an important state like FL clearly the man HATES BLACKS!

Demerara_Guy posted:

Shifts are occurring but the current projections show that Hillary Clinton is still in the lead.

Even if Donald Trump wins most of the eight crucial states, Hillary Clinton will still win the election.

Projections show that Donald Trump must win all of the current crucial states; an impossible task.

I have absolute faith in your prediction of a Hillary win, D_G. After all, your predictions for the last two Guyana elections hit the bulls-eye.  

Seriously, I agree that Hillary has the edge in this race.

caribny posted:

Prince posted:

Hillary is climbing an uphill battle with Blacks and undecided voters. Trump will surprise a lot of naysayers on election day. 

Blacks are either voting Hillary or not voting. What they will NOT do is vote for some one who is overjoyed that he has the support of the KKK and who did NOTHING when his supporters attacked blacks, EVEN black GOP representatives.

In fact the director of Trump's black outreach for FL was tossed out of a meeting.

If Trump couldn't even be bothered to know who is doing his black outreach in an important state like FL clearly the man HATES BLACKS!

That's an understatement . ..hates blacks.that swineTrump will prefer to take them back to slavery.

Gilbakka posted:

Demerara_Guy posted:

Shifts are occurring but the current projections show that Hillary Clinton is still in the lead.

Even if Donald Trump wins most of the eight crucial states, Hillary Clinton will still win the election.

Projections show that Donald Trump must win all of the current crucial states; an impossible task.

I have absolute faith in your prediction of a Hillary win, D_G. After all, your predictions for the last two Guyana elections hit the bulls-eye.  

Seriously, I agree that Hillary has the edge in this race.

African American early vote in NC is down by 15% when compared to 2012. The white vote is up with the increase being among the over 65 bloc. Not good.

In PA a former  Dem governor

Told Kari and Danyael not to break out the bubbly.   They have reduced polling stations in urban areas as part of a voter suppression. And let us face it. Blacks haven't seen their lives improve under Obama so there is some voter fatigue. 

Chief posted:

caribny posted:

Prince posted:

Hillary is climbing an uphill battle with Blacks and undecided voters. Trump will surprise a lot of naysayers on election day. 

Blacks are either voting Hillary or not voting. What they will NOT do is vote for some one who is overjoyed that he has the support of the KKK and who did NOTHING when his supporters attacked blacks, EVEN black GOP representatives.

In fact the director of Trump's black outreach for FL was tossed out of a meeting.

If Trump couldn't even be bothered to know who is doing his black outreach in an important state like FL clearly the man HATES BLACKS!

That's an understatement . ..hates blacks.that swineTrump will prefer to take them back to slavery.

This is why baseman, yuji and others love him.  They know that he will do what Jagdeo wished that he could have.

Why drag race into everything ?

Blacks are not turning out to vote for Hillary (at least in early voting) as they did for President Obama.

Blacks have been let down by politicians. It is starting to show.

Not that they love Trump, we know that they will not vote for Trump. What we now know is that they are voting in lower numbers compared to the last two elections.

Interesting development.

Chief posted:

caribny posted:

Prince posted:

Hillary is climbing an uphill battle with Blacks and undecided voters. Trump will surprise a lot of naysayers on election day. 

Blacks are either voting Hillary or not voting. What they will NOT do is vote for some one who is overjoyed that he has the support of the KKK and who did NOTHING when his supporters attacked blacks, EVEN black GOP representatives.

In fact the director of Trump's black outreach for FL was tossed out of a meeting.

If Trump couldn't even be bothered to know who is doing his black outreach in an important state like FL clearly the man HATES BLACKS!

That's an understatement . ..hates blacks.that swineTrump will prefer to take them back to slavery.

Chief, you're a racist bastard. 

yuji22 posted:

Why drag race into everything ?

 

Because you do. Every thing out of your mouth with Guyana is Indian this and Indian that. You hate blacks. Trump attracts anti black racists, and you are one of them.

Part of the reason for the reduced vote is that they cut polling stations in black areas, forcing people into long lines. People who get paid by the hour and who are easily fired, thanks to racists like YOU, can ill afford to spend hours waiting to vote. And the GOP knows this.

Cobra posted:

 

Chief, you're a racist bastard. 

Yes we know that you didn't think that painting blacks as a bunch of violent and useless savages isn't racist behavior. We do remember your screams last year when the PPP lost.

Cobra posted:

Chief posted:

caribny posted:

Prince posted:

Hillary is climbing an uphill battle with Blacks and undecided voters. Trump will surprise a lot of naysayers on election day. 

Blacks are either voting Hillary or not voting. What they will NOT do is vote for some one who is overjoyed that he has the support of the KKK and who did NOTHING when his supporters attacked blacks, EVEN black GOP representatives.

In fact the director of Trump's black outreach for FL was tossed out of a meeting.

If Trump couldn't even be bothered to know who is doing his black outreach in an important state like FL clearly the man HATES BLACKS!

That's an understatement . ..hates blacks.that swineTrump will prefer to take them back to slavery.

Chief, you're a racist bastard. 

Chief lives in America and forgets that the American nation is founded on free choice. It is up to voters to choose, be it Hillary or Trump.

America is not Saudi Arabia where people are beheaded for condemning the Thugs and Dictators in the Royal Family.

It makes some poster look like idiots by attacking other posters because their choice is different. They look very, very stupid when they attack others who do not agree with their choice. That's hypocritical. 

They are allowing their emotions to get in the way of free choice and free speech.

caribny posted:

Cobra posted:

 

Chief, you're a racist bastard. 

Yes we know that you didn't think that painting blacks as a bunch of violent and useless savages isn't racist behavior. We do remember your screams last year when the PPP lost.

Carib,

You are making a complete idiot of yourself on GNI by dragging race into everything.

You ego is badly bruised by learning that Blacks are not voting in large numbers for Hillary as they did for Obama and you are on record on GNI saying that this will be a very bad sign for Hillary.

Chief posted:

caribny posted:

Prince posted:

Hillary is climbing an uphill battle with Blacks and undecided voters. Trump will surprise a lot of naysayers on election day. 

Blacks are either voting Hillary or not voting. What they will NOT do is vote for some one who is overjoyed that he has the support of the KKK and who did NOTHING when his supporters attacked blacks, EVEN black GOP representatives.

In fact the director of Trump's black outreach for FL was tossed out of a meeting.

If Trump couldn't even be bothered to know who is doing his black outreach in an important state like FL clearly the man HATES BLACKS!

That's an understatement . ..hates blacks.that swineTrump will prefer to take them back to slavery.

Very true dat.

yuji22 posted:

 

Carib,

You are making a complete idiot of yourself on GNI by dragging race into everything.

 

The fact is that blacks aren't voting for Trump.

Interesting that you discuss race in this post and then don't want me to do so.  Imagine a post that discuses voting by blacks.

This in fact shows your hypocrisy.

yuji22 posted:

Cobra posted:

Chief posted:

caribny posted:

Prince posted:

Hillary is climbing an uphill battle with Blacks and undecided voters. Trump will surprise a lot of naysayers on election day. 

Blacks are either voting Hillary or not voting. What they will NOT do is vote for some one who is overjoyed that he has the support of the KKK and who did NOTHING when his supporters attacked blacks, EVEN black GOP representatives.

In fact the director of Trump's black outreach for FL was tossed out of a meeting.

If Trump couldn't even be bothered to know who is doing his black outreach in an important state like FL clearly the man HATES BLACKS!

That's an understatement . ..hates blacks.that swineTrump will prefer to take them back to slavery.

Chief, you're a racist bastard. 

Chief lives in America and forgets that the American nation is founded on free choice. It is up to voters to choose, be it Hillary or Trump.

America is not Saudi Arabia where people are beheaded for condemning the Thugs and Dictators in the Royal Family.

It makes some poster look like idiots by attacking other posters because their choice is different. They look very, very stupid when they attack others who do not agree with their choice. That's hypocritical. 

They are allowing their emotions to get in the way of free choice and free speech.

 

Allow that swine Trump to win, he will make Saudi Arabia looks good.

He will not behead but he will deport all of your family who are here illegally.

Yes this is America and God Bless America which allow free speech.

Donal Trump says he will take away free speech.

Cobra posted:

Chief posted:

caribny posted:

Prince posted:

Hillary is climbing an uphill battle with Blacks and undecided voters. Trump will surprise a lot of naysayers on election day. 

Blacks are either voting Hillary or not voting. What they will NOT do is vote for some one who is overjoyed that he has the support of the KKK and who did NOTHING when his supporters attacked blacks, EVEN black GOP representatives.

In fact the director of Trump's black outreach for FL was tossed out of a meeting.

If Trump couldn't even be bothered to know who is doing his black outreach in an important state like FL clearly the man HATES BLACKS!

That's an understatement . ..hates blacks.that swineTrump will prefer to take them back to slavery.

Chief, you're a racist bastard. 

Well Good morning.

You  are the one who admitted that you are a racist.

yuji22 posted:

caribny posted:

Cobra posted:

 

Chief, you're a racist bastard. 

Yes we know that you didn't think that painting blacks as a bunch of violent and useless savages isn't racist behavior. We do remember your screams last year when the PPP lost.

Carib,

You are making a complete idiot of yourself on GNI by dragging race into everything.

You ego is badly bruised by learning that Blacks are not voting in large numbers for Hillary as they did for Obama and you are on record on GNI saying that this will be a very bad sign for Hillary.

Shut your pie hole you miserable racist who cannot argue a point without presuming you are smart because of culture and genes. The point is Trump is an inarticulate, pompous patrician worm who has little regards for women and less for people of color. He told you so in so many words. Further he calls others name ie crooks when he is the biggest one having some close to a thousand law suits against him for non payment for work done from the simple waitress to his attorneys. Who does that? As one fine woman said, a puny man who never cared for anyone but his pocket book and does not care who he steps.

In NC where the numbers of black turnout is low the community was faced by onerous suppression rules targeting them by the GOP. The court just affirmed their strategy was to curtail black voting so ruled against them. Only recently they were forced to open more polling places because here again they tried to shut out black movement to the polls. Trump closing arguments constantly presses the race buttons and has as its main trajectory the objective of surprising black, young and women vote by his massive campaigns of lies that Hillary is a crook when he is actually the only crook in this competition. After constant assault, black people ( and others) are affected. Blacks may not come out in as massive numbers as they did for Obama but in the end they will be  out there in numbers beyond all others. Note the six percent drop is being measured against some 97 percent turn out for Obama!

Hand dem D2!

Let dem shut their pie hole permanently!

Chief posted:

Hand dem D2!

Let dem shut their pie hole permanently!

Them bannas guh get constipation which will affect their brain,expect more crap out of their mouths.

Chief posted:

caribny posted:

Prince posted:

Hillary is climbing an uphill battle with Blacks and undecided voters. Trump will surprise a lot of naysayers on election day. 

Blacks are either voting Hillary or not voting. What they will NOT do is vote for some one who is overjoyed that he has the support of the KKK and who did NOTHING when his supporters attacked blacks, EVEN black GOP representatives.

In fact the director of Trump's black outreach for FL was tossed out of a meeting.

If Trump couldn't even be bothered to know who is doing his black outreach in an important state like FL clearly the man HATES BLACKS!

That's an understatement . ..hates blacks.that swineTrump will prefer to take them back to slavery.

You are an expert on swine now heh. Wonder how and why?

skeldon_man posted:

You are an expert on swine now heh. Wonder how and why?

Shut your dutty racist skont.

You low life poke eater, son of a drunk.

Chief posted:

skeldon_man posted:

You are an expert on swine now heh. Wonder how and why?

Shut your dutty racist skont.

You low life poke eater, son of a drunk.

When you go low; I go high. Better be a son of a drunk than being son of a coolie sell out swine.

Danyael posted:

. Blacks may not come out in as massive numbers as they did for Obama but in the end they will be  out there in numbers beyond all others. Note the six percent drop is being measured against some 97 percent turn out for Obama!

Yes those blacks who do vote will vote over 95% for the Dems. But a combination of voter suppression, and voter fatigue will depress the vote this time around. Many will ponder as to what they are getting for standing up in lines to vote for hours on end, missing work and getting docked pay.  And then to be ignored until the next election.

The Dems have taken the black vote for granted. Its always amusing how Obama refused to discuss issues pertaining to race, lectured blacks about our faults, but hasn't lectured other groups (the current opioid epidemic among whites), and now election is around once again blacks are exhorted to vote.

Blacks today face all of the same problems that they faced in 2006.  It is interesting how the Dems ignore this most loyal group even as they cater to the interests of white gays and white women. 

The Obama administration had an initiative to deal with the issues of (white) women. Where was his urban initiative to improve access to opportunity for huge numbers of the black lower middle class, who were badly hurt by the Bush administration?

If Hillary loses because a 10% drop in black turnout is enough to erase the narrow win that Obama got in FL and other states in 2012 the Dems need to gaze at their navels and ask why.

skeldon_man posted:

Chief posted:

skeldon_man posted:

You are an expert on swine now heh. Wonder how and why?

Shut your dutty racist skont.

You low life poke eater, son of a drunk.

When you go low; I go high. Better be a son of a drunk than being son of a coolie sell out swine.

Licks like peas bhai Skelly,Chiefy on a roll.

Django posted:

skeldon_man posted:

Chief posted:

skeldon_man posted:

You are an expert on swine now heh. Wonder how and why?

Shut your dutty racist skont.

You low life poke eater, son of a drunk.

When you go low; I go high. Better be a son of a drunk than being son of a coolie sell out swine.

Licks like peas bhai Skelly,Chiefy on a roll.

Read again bhai and andastan nah! Like you nah get you monthly PNC check  yet? Piece of advice: Quit your second job.

skeldon_man posted:

Django posted:

skeldon_man posted:

Chief posted:

skeldon_man posted:

You are an expert on swine now heh. Wonder how and why?

Shut your dutty racist skont.

You low life poke eater, son of a drunk.

When you go low; I go high. Better be a son of a drunk than being son of a coolie sell out swine.

Licks like peas bhai Skelly,Chiefy on a roll.

Read again bhai and andastan nah! Like you nah get you monthly PNC check  yet? Piece of advice: Quit your second job.

Why is it you rotten pretentious skunks always think you are somehow superior and instead of addressing the matter at hand you try to take a dig at other poster. How the hell you know the dude is getting a PNC check or has to double up his work schedule?

skeldon_man posted:

Chief posted:

skeldon_man posted:

You are an expert on swine now heh. Wonder how and why?

Shut your dutty racist skont.

You low life poke eater, son of a drunk.

When you go low; I go high. Better be a son of a drunk than being son of a coolie sell out swine.

That's a low blow. Wanna go high? Take another try.

Do not lose sight of the fact that the Electoral College votes determine the Presidency. Blacks may have a lower turnout than in the Obama elections - expected and moreso with voter suppression antics of GOP Governors and Legislatures. Urban whites women are not as flaky as Caribny suggests. This cake was baked in the weeks following the Conventions. The US election is like a huge ocean liner - it takes a while to shift course. Trump may have the momentum following the latest Comey homey, but it's too little too late. The demographics don't favor Trump. So instead of winning by 100 electoral votes she may win by 40. Take away Florida, Ohio and Nevada from her column and she still wins. Too much North-East and West Coast with major mid-west by the Great Lakes are in her column.

caribny posted:

Danyael posted:

. Blacks may not come out in as massive numbers as they did for Obama but in the end they will be  out there in numbers beyond all others. Note the six percent drop is being measured against some 97 percent turn out for Obama!

Yes those blacks who do vote will vote over 95% for the Dems. But a combination of voter suppression, and voter fatigue will depress the vote this time around. Many will ponder as to what they are getting for standing up in lines to vote for hours on end, missing work and getting docked pay.  And then to be ignored until the next election.

The Dems have taken the black vote for granted. Its always amusing how Obama refused to discuss issues pertaining to race, lectured blacks about our faults, but hasn't lectured other groups (the current opioid epidemic among whites), and now election is around once again blacks are exhorted to vote.

Blacks today face all of the same problems that they faced in 2006.  It is interesting how the Dems ignore this most loyal group even as they cater to the interests of white gays and white women. 

The Obama administration had an initiative to deal with the issues of (white) women. Where was his urban initiative to improve access to opportunity for huge numbers of the black lower middle class, who were badly hurt by the Bush administration?

If Hillary loses because a 10% drop in black turnout is enough to erase the narrow win that Obama got in FL and other states in 2012 the Dems need to gaze at their navels and ask why.

Which of the two would blacks fare better under?

Under Hillary they might be forgotten and used at next election.

Under Trump they might get used and used and used until next election only to be forgotten with some mention about them not smart enough as he and they all useless.

I say they better haul dem rass out there and vote Trump out.

Django posted:

skeldon_man posted:

Chief posted:

skeldon_man posted:

You are an expert on swine now heh. Wonder how and why?

Shut your dutty racist skont.

You low life poke eater, son of a drunk.

When you go low; I go high. Better be a son of a drunk than being son of a coolie sell out swine.

Licks like peas bhai Skelly,Chiefy on a roll.

I tired beat up these Ppp coolies.

Gilbakka posted:

skeldon_man posted:

Chief posted:

skeldon_man posted:

You are an expert on swine now heh. Wonder how and why?

Shut your dutty racist skont.

You low life poke eater, son of a drunk.

When you go low; I go high. Better be a son of a drunk than being son of a coolie sell out swine.

That's a low blow. Wanna go high? Take another try.

How can someone who born low go high?

DON'T waste your time Gilly.

Why do think he is backing Trump, they both love to roll in filth.

cain posted:

caribny posted:

Danyael posted:

. Blacks may not come out in as massive numbers as they did for Obama but in the end they will be  out there in numbers beyond all others. Note the six percent drop is being measured against some 97 percent turn out for Obama!

Yes those blacks who do vote will vote over 95% for the Dems. But a combination of voter suppression, and voter fatigue will depress the vote this time around. Many will ponder as to what they are getting for standing up in lines to vote for hours on end, missing work and getting docked pay.  And then to be ignored until the next election.

The Dems have taken the black vote for granted. Its always amusing how Obama refused to discuss issues pertaining to race, lectured blacks about our faults, but hasn't lectured other groups (the current opioid epidemic among whites), and now election is around once again blacks are exhorted to vote.

Blacks today face all of the same problems that they faced in 2006.  It is interesting how the Dems ignore this most loyal group even as they cater to the interests of white gays and white women. 

The Obama administration had an initiative to deal with the issues of (white) women. Where was his urban initiative to improve access to opportunity for huge numbers of the black lower middle class, who were badly hurt by the Bush administration?

If Hillary loses because a 10% drop in black turnout is enough to erase the narrow win that Obama got in FL and other states in 2012 the Dems need to gaze at their navels and ask why.

Which of the two would blacks fare better under?

Under Hillary they might be forgotten and used at next election.

Under Trump they might get used and used and used until next election only to be forgotten with some mention about them not smart enough as he and they all useless.

I say they better haul dem rass out there and vote Trump out.

Under BILL Clinton Presidency Blacks fared very well. As a matter of fact all Americans did. budget was balanced and a robust economy by the time he demited office.

WE will see the same from his wife when elected President.

Either way we are screwed for the next 4 years

Pointblank posted:

Either way we are screwed for the next 4 years

Yeh but oneadem got a BIGGER one than the other, that might make the difference in de screw.

Pointblank posted:

Either way we are screwed for the next 4 years

I am not so sure about that.

Ms Clinton will deliver.

I think she learnt her lesson.

Gilbakka posted:

skeldon_man posted:

Chief posted:

skeldon_man posted:

You are an expert on swine now heh. Wonder how and why?

Shut your dutty racist skont.

You low life poke eater, son of a drunk.

When you go low; I go high. Better be a son of a drunk than being son of a coolie sell out swine.

That's a low blow. Wanna go high? Take another try.

Sorry Gilly! Please read what he wrote. "You low life poke eater, son of a drunk".

When you play with fire, you are going to get yourself burned. I grew up in the backdam of Skeldon estate. I am proud of my father.