Kari posted:

Do not lose sight of the fact that the Electoral College votes determine the Presidency. Blacks may have a lower turnout than in the Obama elections - expected and moreso with voter suppression antics of GOP Governors and Legislatures. Urban whites women are not as flaky as Caribny suggests. This cake was baked in the weeks following the Conventions. The US election is like a huge ocean liner - it takes a while to shift course. Trump may have the momentum following the latest Comey homey, but it's too little too late. The demographics don't favor Trump. So instead of winning by 100 electoral votes she may win by 40. Take away Florida, Ohio and Nevada from her column and she still wins. Too much North-East and West Coast with major mid-west by the Great Lakes are in her column.

Kari black turnout was responsible for Obama winning VA, OH, and FL in 2008 and 2012, and NC in 2008.  This is why there are loads of ads aimed at the black vote. I cannot recall any other time when I have seen that.  This is why Michelle, who remains wildly popular (the reason why Obama is popular) is running around areas with high black populations.

It isn't to woo the black vote, as Trump is doing even worse than even Romney and McCain did.   Its to confront evidence of apathy, which becomes a real challenge given evidence of voter suppression in swing states like NC OH and FL.

And don't under estimate the importance of FL. That rich haul of 29 electoral seats becomes a firewall in case the Dems lose in some state that they expected to win.

A combination of voter suppression and apathy will adversely impact Hillary unless the turnout increases.

Hillary is winning urban white women, but losing Midwest working class white men to Trump. 

I suggest that you keep your bubbly closed until Tuesday night. You remind me of those who were so confident that Brexit will lose, but then received the biggest shock of their lives.

Even a former Dem governor in PA admits that there is a closet Trump vote in that state. Folks who plan to vote for him, but will never admit this publicly.

Most likely Hillary will win, but a 30% probability of loss is a close call, given the narrow margins in many of these swing states.

You should look at a map of the 2012 Electoral College. If voters were all white women the only states the Dems win would be the West Coast, NY, NJ and New England, and IL, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.   This will suggest that minority voters do have major impact on the Dem victories. After all they account for over 40% of the votes that they receive.  And in states like FL NC VA OH PA and MI the margin of victory comes from the black vote.

cain posted:

.

Which of the two would blacks fare better under?

Under Hillary they might be forgotten and used at next election.

 

It might shock you to know that as far as many are concerned they suffered under Bush, and still suffer under Obama.

So they think that the notion of standing in line for 3 hours (voter suppression being that there are fewer polling stations in black areas, and machines are more likely to be nonfunctional, names are more likely to not be on the list, etc) isn't worth it.

Do you know that only 60% of Americans vote in Presidential elections? Given that this election is a sordid mess expect even more to decide not to bother.

Many blacks are tired of the notion that the most vote for the Dems so that rich white Liberals can get lucrative contracts.

Face it. Blacks in 2016 are NOT better off than they were in 2004.  I think that it takes some arrogance on the part of white Dems to assume that they are entitled to the black vote.

If Trump wins FL OH NC CO and Iowa he might win, or NH becomes the deciding factor.

Given the mass defection of working class white men away from Obama to Trump don't rule out a Midwest surprise if the black turnout is low.  PA and MI are states with a large and ageing white working class population. Its already assumed that Iowa might go to him. 

http://www.motherjones.com/pol...tion-race-gender-age

Kari I suggest that you familiarize yourself with the fact minority voters are critical for Dem victories. In swing states where Hispanic votes are low (everywhere east of the Mississippi except FL) its the black vote which makes the difference.

This is why there have been quite a few articles this past week pondering about what happens if the black vote ends up 17% down, as early voting indicates might happen.

Its just amazing the degree to which the Dems, even Obama, take the black vote for granted, when it is this bloc which provides them with the margin of victory. In fact the difference between mid term elections, when black turn out is low, and the last two presidential elections, when black turn out exceeded the white turn out, is an indicator of this.

CaribJ 

You have to understand that Blacks fare better with Democrats.

Plain truth from Carib:

"Its just amazing the degree to which the Dems, even Obama, take the black vote for granted, when it is this bloc which provides them with the margin of victory. In fact the difference between mid term elections, when black turn out is low, and the last two presidential elections, when black turn out exceeded the white turn out, is an indicator of this."

"Face it.

Blacks in 2016 are NOT better off than they were in 2004. I think that it takes some arrogance on the part of white Dems to assume that they are entitled to the black vote."

End of Quote by Carib.

caribny posted:

cain posted:

.

Which of the two would blacks fare better under?

Under Hillary they might be forgotten and used at next election.

 

It might shock you to know that as far as many are concerned they suffered under Bush, and still suffer under Obama.

So they think that the notion of standing in line for 3 hours (voter suppression being that there are fewer polling stations in black areas, and machines are more likely to be nonfunctional, names are more likely to not be on the list, etc) isn't worth it.

Do you know that only 60% of Americans vote in Presidential elections? Given that this election is a sordid mess expect even more to decide not to bother.

Many blacks are tired of the notion that the most vote for the Dems so that rich white Liberals can get lucrative contracts.

Face it. Blacks in 2016 are NOT better off than they were in 2004.  I think that it takes some arrogance on the part of white Dems to assume that they are entitled to the black vote.

 

Here's the rest of my post.

Under Trump they might get used and used and used until next election only to be forgotten with some mention about them not smart enough as he and they all useless.

I say they better haul dem rass out there and vote Trump out.

Perhaps I should have said "used and abused"

skeldon_man posted:

Sorry Gilly! Please read what he wrote. "You low life poke eater, son of a drunk".

When you play with fire, you are going to get yourself burned. I grew up in the backdam of Skeldon estate. I am proud of my father.

 

I did read what Chief wrote. That was low. You promised to go high, but you matched his lowness. Two lows don't make a high.

caribny posted:

http://www.motherjones.com/pol...tion-race-gender-age

Kari I suggest that you familiarize yourself with the fact minority voters are critical for Dem victories. In swing states where Hispanic votes are low (everywhere east of the Mississippi except FL) its the black vote which makes the difference.

This is why there have been quite a few articles this past week pondering about what happens if the black vote ends up 17% down, as early voting indicates might happen.

Its just amazing the degree to which the Dems, even Obama, take the black vote for granted, when it is this bloc which provides them with the margin of victory. In fact the difference between mid term elections, when black turn out is low, and the last two presidential elections, when black turn out exceeded the white turn out, is an indicator of this.

When Hillary wins the Presidency in a week's time, everybody on this Forum should shove all your nonsense in your face, closet Trump voter. This is not a sophomoric pissing contest to see who gets brownie points. This is a serious elections with whatever Hillary's shortcomings, whatever black voters' disinterest, the demographics cap Trump at 41%. The Independents will take around 5%. That leaves Hillary's potential at 54%. Trump has to swing around 13% points; meaning he has to get 7% above his soft ceiling. I think at most he eats into 3% of that leaving Hillary with 51% to Trump's 44% with 5% going to independents and write-in ballots. All this does is bring Hillary's electoral college advantage down from about 120 to, say, 60. All Ii hear is wonky stuff about minority voters. This bannaz don't see the split now in white women voters whereas in the past Republicans usually take a 7 to 10% advantage. I will bet ya, Hillary wimnds this on white women votes.

Chief posted:

CaribJ 

You have to understand that Blacks fare better with Democrats.

Blacks wonder. They suffered under Bush and again under Obama. Many don't see why they should stand up in lines for 3 hours and then lose a day's pay. Are the Dems going to compensate them?

I am not going to condemn a working class black who thinks like this. They know their lives and you don't.  8 years of Obama and blacks still getting shot by agents of the government (police) even though their taxes pay these people's salaries.

Kari posted:

 

When Hillary wins the Presidency in a week's time, .

Demographics are a function of who votes. Those who don't vote don't count. If more 50+ whites show up, and fewer blacks don't then there might well be a Midwest surprise.

Many white men in the Midwest who voted Obama TWICE now plan to go to Trump. That offsets the drift of college educated white women to Hillary.

FACT. The Trump base is more energized than is the Hillary base.

It is the black vote that delivers IL, MI, PA, VA, and NC. There isn't a large enough Hispanic vote, and the white vote alone doesn't provide the margin of victory.

Hillary has to win some combination of these, plus FL and CO, two other swing states to win.  IL isn't in doubt because it has a large college educated white population, but what of MI and PA, which don't?  Iowa (Obama won) is going to Trump this time.

I suggest to you that Trump is now seen as having an almost 30% chance of winning, and those odds aren't bad, when we consider that there is a closet Trump vote out there.  Who knows what impact the relentless email crap ranting has had on some voters.

538 is seen as very credible. They call Hillary's lead "fragile" and give Trump a 29% chance of winning.  And that assumes that blacks and millennials show up to vote in the same numbers that they did in the previous 2 elections, when their turn out was much higher than normal.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/fea...s-a-path-to-victory/

This election is about two people who most Americans hate, so turn out becomes the real issue. Few are truly inspired by either, so folks will concoct their own reasons next Tuesday to decide whether they will nor will not vote.  And its a mere 5% who matter, as the remainder have already decided what they are going to do.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/fea...s-a-path-to-victory/

Kari I suggest that you read this with an open mind, as these folks are way more savvy and way more scientifically objective (not allowing their personal opinions impact their analysis) than you are.

Hillary will most likely win just as "Remain" was most likely to win.

But then the British woke up and found out that Brexit won.

You know why this happened. The minorities and Londoners didn't show up. The white working class did.

caribny posted:

Chief posted:

CaribJ 

You have to understand that Blacks fare better with Democrats.

Blacks wonder. They suffered under Bush and again under Obama. Many don't see why they should stand up in lines for 3 hours and then lose a day's pay. Are the Dems going to compensate them?

I am not going to condemn a working class black who thinks like this. They know their lives and you don't.  8 years of Obama and blacks still getting shot by agents of the government (police) even though their taxes pay these people's salaries.

They suffered under Bush and again under Obama.

They know their lives and you don't.

That's the sort of hubris that is a substitute for analysis. You can't talk about Blacks because you are not one. You can talk ANYTHING about Blacks because you are one of them. Sic!

Maybe this thread should have posts only by Caribny as he is the only Black writing here. No one else has any qualification to speak about it. I will not talk about whites again as I'm not a White person. I will only talk about Indians as I'm one. hehehe.

caribny posted:

Kari posted:

 

When Hillary wins the Presidency in a week's time, .

Demographics are a function of who votes. Those who don't vote don't count. If more 50+ whites show up, and fewer blacks don't then there might well be a Midwest surprise.

Many white men in the Midwest who voted Obama TWICE now plan to go to Trump. That offsets the drift of college educated white women to Hillary.

FACT. The Trump base is more energized than is the Hillary base.

It is the black vote that delivers IL, MI, PA, VA, and NC. There isn't a large enough Hispanic vote, and the white vote alone doesn't provide the margin of victory.

Hillary has to win some combination of these, plus FL and CO, two other swing states to win.  IL isn't in doubt because it has a large college educated white population, but what of MI and PA, which don't?  Iowa (Obama won) is going to Trump this time.

I suggest to you that Trump is now seen as having an almost 30% chance of winning, and those odds aren't bad, when we consider that there is a closet Trump vote out there.  Who knows what impact the relentless email crap ranting has had on some voters.

538 is seen as very credible. They call Hillary's lead "fragile" and give Trump a 29% chance of winning.  And that assumes that blacks and millennials show up to vote in the same numbers that they did in the previous 2 elections, when their turn out was much higher than normal.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/fea...s-a-path-to-victory/

This election is about two people who most Americans hate, so turn out becomes the real issue. Few are truly inspired by either, so folks will concoct their own reasons next Tuesday to decide whether they will nor will not vote.  And its a mere 5% who matter, as the remainder have already decided what they are going to do.

Many white men in the Midwest who voted Obama TWICE now plan to go to Trump. That offsets the drift of college educated white women to Hillary.

Caribny is n ow a white person.............hehehe

Chief posted:

Pointblank posted:

Either way we are screwed for the next 4 years

I am not so sure about that.

Ms Clinton will deliver.

I think she learnt her lesson.

A career politician only now "learnt her lesson"!  This must be PNC learning curve profile, no wonder you are sold.

Hillary has a baked-in corruption bone that will carry her into the WH.  The fact that she played ball with Donna Brazile tells a whole lot about her.  She is not capable of acting differently.  The person who is learning how to deal in the political environment is Trump.  This is new to him so you can expect mistakes!

Kari posted:

Maybe this thread should have posts only by Caribny as he is the only Black writing here. No one else has any qualification to speak about it. I will not talk about whites again as I'm not a White person. I will only talk about Indians as I'm one. hehehe.

An Indian and long-time PNC supporter while the PNC put Indians through the meat grinder.  Indians of Guyana need Indians like you like they need a Buxton bullet in the head!

Kari posted:

caribny posted:

Chief posted:

CaribJ 

You have to understand that Blacks fare better with Democrats.

Blacks wonder. They suffered under Bush and again under Obama. Many don't see why they should stand up in lines for 3 hours and then lose a day's pay. Are the Dems going to compensate them?

I am not going to condemn a working class black who thinks like this. They know their lives and you don't.  8 years of Obama and blacks still getting shot by agents of the government (police) even though their taxes pay these people's salaries.

They suffered under Bush and again under Obama.

They know their lives and you don't.

And Blacks of Guyana suffered under Burnham/PNC and again under the PPP.

To Caribj, you are a shame to Blacks struggling to put their kids through college to go after their share of the pie.  You are an inspiration to none, ok maybe some welfare loafers who find all the excuses they need in your tirade!

ba$eman posted:

Kari posted:

caribny posted:

Chief posted:

CaribJ 

You have to understand that Blacks fare better with Democrats.

Blacks wonder. They suffered under Bush and again under Obama. Many don't see why they should stand up in lines for 3 hours and then lose a day's pay. Are the Dems going to compensate them?

I am not going to condemn a working class black who thinks like this. They know their lives and you don't.  8 years of Obama and blacks still getting shot by agents of the government (police) even though their taxes pay these people's salaries.

They suffered under Bush and again under Obama.

They know their lives and you don't.

And Blacks of Guyana suffered under Burnham/PNC and again under the PPP.

To Caribj, you are a shame to Blacks struggling to put their kids through college to go after their share of the pie.  You are an inspiration to none, ok maybe some welfare loafers who find all the excuses they need in your tirade!

Caribj is an ivy league graduate so he is an inspiration to many. He has black people's business in his heart even if you or I can disagree with his articulation of some points. You on the other hand think black people are sub par so they are not socially disadvantaged but simply reached their peak.

These white people you excuse as t he chronic poor who support Trump have like black people been long neglected by their political party. All the red zones are are dominated by fly over zones and they are where poor whites live. They blame everyone but themselves and their choice of political philosophy for their problems.  Trump has no plans for them. Bringing back coal as he suggests is not to their advantage and worse it cannot be resurrected.

Even Factory work with factories cannot fill the jobs for the unemployed if the factories return. These are highly robotic factories and do not need lots of people . These people need new skills and newer outlook that does not rely on entry level positions. We need to create a green technology belt every where there is red. Their salvation is in innovation education an lots of external financial bootstrapping. Mrs C proposed that in her infrastructural renewal plan.

Kari posted:

 

They suffered under Bush and again under Obama.

They know their lives and you don't.

That's the sort of hubris that is a substitute for analysis. You can't talk about Blacks because you are not one. You can talk ANYTHING about Blacks because you are one of them. Sic!

So why don't you counter this argument. Go tell black folks that their lives are better off.  Blacks votes looking like declining 15% this time around. Is this evidence that they feel happy about the Democratic party?

In fact the only thing that saves the Democratic party is that the GOP has been taken over by Satan. As is even Christie got 22% of the black vote in his last NJ gubernatorial election, also winning 51% of the Hispanic vote.

Let the GOP get their act together, as hopefully they will if and when Trump loses. Let them get the moderates running the show with the spawn of Satan being sent to the back of the line, and it will shock you how many blacks will give the GOP a shot.

And yes being black I do have insights that you lack. You rely on White House press releases.  I rely on the fact that I live in a black neighborhood, so see what goes on, and am embedded in what middle class blacks think, do, and say.

Here we are after 8 years of Obama and we have Black Lives Matter!  Any wonder why many working class blacks will think that if a black man couldn't, or didn't want to change this that a white woman can't or will not!

We still have the debate about racism in the form of implicit bias, when we voted for Obama so that this would no longer be on the table. Obama can discuss (white) gay rights, and (white) woman rights but he is afraid to discuss an urban agenda.

ba$eman posted:

 

And Blacks of Guyana suffered under Burnham/PNC and again under the PPP.

 

Oh I am glad to see that you FINALLY agree with me on this. Usually you are screaming that Burnham was really interested in assisting Afro Guyanese instead of merely exploiting their ethnic fears of Indian clannishness.

How often have I said that Burnham was one of the worst things to happen to Guyanese blacks.

You see this is the problem with you Indo KKK. Any black man who confronts your racism must be a Burnhamite. When you find one who isn't you don't know what to do.

Kari posted:

.

Many white men in the Midwest who voted Obama TWICE now plan to go to Trump. That offsets the drift of college educated white women to Hillary.

 

Caribny is n ow a white person.............hehehe

Its amazing how you can sink so easily to Nehru levels of ignorance,when you aren't plagiarizing White House press releases.  You cannot back your argument so you resort to insults.

There is wide spread evidence that this is now a nail biter and a Midwest shock in either PA, or MI isn't impossible.  Especially if the black vote is down 15%, and a higher white working class male vote shows up.

http://www.aol.com/article/new...gi=aolshare_facebook

Take a read of this.

Feel free to scream demographic by ignoring the fact that the black vote might tiumble and many working class white men in the Midwest, including many who voted Obama TWICE, have now gone to Trump.

Simple Kari its a pity that you lack the intellectual sophistication to understand that pointing out challenges that Hillary will face ion Tuesday doesn't arise to supporting Trump.

Here is the deal Kari. Hillary is a rich woman. Whether she wins or loses her life will continue to be fine. She is NOT going to jail.  Your only interest in this is that a man who is unfit to be president, and who will be a disaster, has a 30% chance of winning, should the black vote tumble, and especially if white millennials also vote in lower numbers than especially in 2008.

Bottom line Kari is if she loses FL and NC, and there is a Midwest surprise in either PA or MI, two states with large populations of uneducated whites, Trump wins.

So get on your knees and pray that folks show up to boast instead of boasting that Hilllary already won.

Or come November 9 (something tells me that FL will be a problem) you might look as stupid as those who KNEW that Brexit would lose, and then ended up eating humble pie the next day.

He will not win PA or Michigan

The reality is Indians are breaking for Hillary in the 90 percent!

Danyael posted:

The reality is Indians are breaking for Hillary in the 90 percent!

Your are now pulling Infor from your rear, buck boy.

yuji22 posted:

Danyael posted:

The reality is Indians are breaking for Hillary in the 90 percent!

Your are now pulling Infor from your rear, buck boy.

Sorry, you are slow on the uptake and too lazy to check the information coming out of the early voting count. But no one ever said you were more than a low wattage bulb.

Buck Boy, please stop pulling stats from your rear. Stop lying like Crooked Hillary.

yuji22 posted:

Danyael posted:

The reality is Indians are breaking for Hillary in the 90 percent!

Your are now pulling Infor from your rear, buck boy.

Yuji do you know that Asian Indians, Pakistanis and Bangladeshis gave Obama the HIGHEST % of their votes behind blacks.

South Asians voted in higher numbers for Obama than even Jews and Hispanics.

Given that this group is disproportionately educated and resident in liberal areas they will give Hillary the same %.

I submit to you that Guyanese Indians are ditto, except for the 10 sad Indo KKK who populate GNI.

yuji22 posted:

Buck Boy, please stop pulling stats from your rear. Stop lying like Crooked Hillary.

Were you a quick learner I would avail you of said information. Being a dunce it would not matter.

Danyael posted:

He will not win PA or Michigan

Hmmm. Watching TV show with liberal analysts like some one from the Daily Beast. They are nervous.   They seem to know something that you don't know.  In an election like this no one knows who will show up, and in many swing states it is a statistical tie.

MI and PA have ageing populations, dying rust belt towns, large numbers of non college educated whites, many disillusioned with the liberal elites as they blame NAFTA for their plight.

I suggest to you that when PA and MI results are in and Hillary wins, then you can crack open your bubbly.  Given that no one knows who will show up to vote this is a nail biter.  If she wins these states then a loss of OH, NC, and FL shouldn't matter. I assume that she has VA, CO, and NV in the bag, as well as WI and MN.

Of course the conversation that we need to have is why is Hillary having such  tough time with Trump. She should be beating him with the same zest that LBJ beat Goldwater, an equally obnoxious fascist nutcase.

http://aaldef.org/press-releas...raphic-location.html

Look at how cobra, baseman, yuji, Bibi and skeldonman will get heart attacks. In 2008 and in 2012 84% of Asian Indians voted for Obama.

I wonder why folks think that Hillary will do any worse.  If any group has done well in the Obama era it will be this group, who are disproportionately located in the sectors of the economy that did well in recent years.

Prashad you better tell your Indian cousins that they shouldn't  be voting for blacks!

caribny posted:

Danyael posted:

He will not win PA or Michigan

Hmmm. Watching TV show with liberal analysts like some one from the Daily Beast. They are nervous.   They seem to know something that you don't know.  In an election like this no one knows who will show up, and in many swing states it is a statistical tie.

MI and PA have ageing populations, dying rust belt towns, large numbers of non college educated whites, many disillusioned with the liberal elites as they blame NAFTA for their plight.

I suggest to you that when PA and MI results are in and Hillary wins, then you can crack open your bubbly.  Given that no one knows who will show up to vote this is a nail biter.  If she wins these states then a loss of OH, NC, and FL shouldn't matter. I assume that she has VA, CO, and NV in the bag, as well as WI and MN.

Of course the conversation that we need to have is why is Hillary having such  tough time with Trump. She should be beating him with the same zest that LBJ beat Goldwater, an equally obnoxious fascist nutcase.

Philadelphia, and its rich suburbs with the highest portion of the democratic vote in the state are not nervous. I was there and will be there in the morning. You do not see trump yard signs.

Why anyone vote for trump is not a reflection on the other person. Stupid is what stupid does. I never questioned the existence of the Tea party. I do not know what injustices they were protesting. I just know they were right wing nutcases.

Black turn out in early voting in Florida is down only 2 percent. Thankfully it is off set with Latinos increased percentage at there 4 percent above blacks. T

The is phenomenal Obama coalition was a one time event. Trying to match the turnout  with similar  percentage  given 40 percent of americans are always  disinterested in any election could be a money making thing if one knew how i

Danyael posted:

 

Philadelphia, and its rich suburbs with the highest portion of the democratic vote in the state are not nervous. I was there and will be there in the morning. You do not see trump yard signs.

 

Why anyone vote for trump is not a reflection on the other person. Stupid is what stupid does. I never questioned the existence of the Tea party. I do not know what injustices they were protesting. I just know they were right wing nutcases.

Black turn out in early voting in Florida is down only 2 percent. Thankfully it is off set with Latinos increased percentage at there 4 percent above blacks. T

 

The is phenomenal Obama coalition was a one time event. Trying to match the turnout  with similar  percentage  given 40 percent of americans are always  disinterested in any election could be a money making thing if one knew how i

Obama won with this coalition. Without Ross Perot it is likely that Clinton would have lost. So basically the Obama victory is because of this coalition, so if parts of it fray then there could be difficulties.  Prior to Obama no Democrat won both the majority of the popular vote and the electoral college since Jimmy Carter.

Of course PA isn't just Philly and its burbs or Pittsburg. Its all those dying towns where die hard trade union men are looking at Trump.

After an entire week of the emailgate one can only wonder what will happen on Tuesday.

FL white turn out is higher in raw numbers than the Latin increase, especially when offset by the black drop. FL is always a nail biter and it will be again on Tuesday. 

Also Latinos in FL are moderates, not liberals and so aren't as exclusively oriented to the Dems as they are in the northeast.  While Hillary will win the non Cuban Latin vote it will not be by the margins that she will win them in NY, NJ, or PA.

I suggest that you wait until MI and PA votes are in with a Hillary victory. I assume that she has NV, CO, VA in the bag.  As well as MN and WI, though that state might bring a surprise too,

By the way those who call the white working class "stupid", and I include myself in this, are in part responsible for the Trump phenomenon.  These folks are screaming for attention. They aren't trapped on the Dem reservation as are blacks, who remain terrified of the white supremacists in the GOP.

If Hillary wins there will have to be the type of agenda that deals with income inequality in a way more aggressive way than Obama engaged in. That man is like a rich white liberal. He loves "causes" like climate change and gay rights, and not bread and butter issues that working class Americans will deal with.