Obviously, the PPP is so arrogant and triumphalist, they don't get the message that voters want them to create a big tent with other parties to move the country forward.

So much praise to AFC and APNU for understanding what the country wants.

The above should be publicized  on pamphlets and on the internet.

Dunces,

If the PPP's vote declined that much, then why has the opposition failed to win a free and fair election ?

The opposition will NEVER win a free and fair election, not in 100 years.

Why Yugi?

The question is also targeted at you.

I think you guys may be reading too much into this general numerical decline of PPP voters.

I suspect the AFC is sitting on at least 3, but maybe 4 and perhaps even 5 seats that may be attributable to PPP traditional voters. The PPP has an easier path to victory here. They just need about 5,200 AFC voters to return "home." That's 1 single seat.

You seem rattled, yuji, using the word "Dunces".

Gilbakka didn't make up those numbers.

The 25 percent drop in votes over 14 years put the PPP in a minority government  in 2011.

At that rate of decrease, the opposition will win upcoming elections fair and square.

And we the Dunces will have the last laugh.

This idea or concept that AFC voters will return to the PPP is implying that the people of Guyana are completely devoid of the living situation they are faced in GY.

The Majority of AFC votes came from 3 main areas, Region 6, Region 4 and 8.

The AFC / APNU will retain their votes in 8 and pickup more votes in 4.

In region 6 which is a pretty large region the AFC will continue to grow their presence in region 6 which has shown no indications of anyone returning back into the PPP camp.

Yaseef is viewed as a comedy show in Berbice and Charrandass and Ramaya are having their way with the PPP in that region.

So all this hypothetical bull not based on any data is complete nonsense. I would also add that if any of this PPP bull was true why aren't they releasing the census data? Tell mi nuh?

Lets look at two numbers:

2006: 183,867

2011: 166,340

PPP lost 17,527 votes there.

Freedom House says they were complacent and that's how AFC got their Berbice votes. They put boots on the ground to reclaim those votes. They will not get back all 17,527.

Now, look at the interesting part: APNU didn't work hard enough in South Georgetown in 2011 and lost 2 or 3 seats there. This time APNU has boots on the ground not only in South Georgetown but everywhere.

You say the PPP just needs 5,200 to return to their corrupt home?

Granger has two battalions of supporters back in his home.

Preliminary Conclusions:

The Guyanese Parliament has since 2001, from my estimation, been composed of the following breakdown of racially based distributions:

35 Indian Seats

27 Black Seats

3 Amerindian Seats

The Current Parliament is as follows and my unrefined as yet best guess as to their voting origin. Please feel free to improve:

PPP 32 (this is most likely 30 Indian, and 2 Amerindian/Mixed)

PNC 26 (26 Black Seats)

AFC 7  (5 Indian and 1 Black and 1 Amerindian)

Alternatively it could be:

PPP 32 (30 Indian, 2 Amerindian)

PNC 26 (25 Black, 1 Amerindian)

AFC (5 Indian, 2 Black)

There were also I think approximately 70,000 voters who did not vote in region 4. If those voters can be motivated to vote due to the litany of scandals and complete mismanagement of the country the past 22 years there is no way the PPP will be able to recapture any of those votes.

These numbers are flawed The AFC has 2 Amerindians in parliament right now.

The PNC has 3 Amerindians in parliament. and 3 Indians in parliament.

This shit the Great Shitstains post here is complete and utter race baiting nonsense. Not based in any god damn fact.

Do some research man, your crap is horrible.

http://parliament.gov.gy/about...national-unity-apnu/

Are you in such a rush to oppose me that you're too friggin stupid to read carefully?

This about where the votes come from, not whose ass occupies the seat.

That is even worse, what friggin data do you have to support these assertions? don't tell me the rim of your BT hole because that is not credible Oh Great Shitstain.

My Dear Auntyman,

Read the post again carefully. No one is remotely talking about the race of the MPs in parliament. This is about the electorate that is represented in Parliament.

Go post some pictures of Kwame. I'm talking to posters with brains.

Look Great Shitstain I am not interested in providing porno of your lover here for free to you.

Post shit that makes sense, provide data to back up your claims or as Ramjattan says haul yur ass.

Do the math,opposition parties won more votes than

the PPP in 2011 elections,due to the constraints of

constitution they can't form the government.

This is relevant key data to the PPP's Dilemma... Read it and tek a shait...

Keep in mind that Indian migration since 2002 has been on a tear and the mixed population has increased significantly since then. Nuff rompin goin on you know wat I'm sayin?

Jackass,

Are you now trying to say that the PPP is Guyana's only multiracial party since there is no way the AFC could have bled it of so many Indian votes and the PPP still got 49% when the East Indian population is officially at 43.5%?

Boy where you went to school on the potty?

Percentage of votes has nothing to do with overall population Oh Great Shitstain.

Tek a look at more relevant data here. You notice I am providing real data not shit on a napkin?

Yuh see wah a showin yuh deh?

Region 4 and 6 are the big vote getters for the AFC

Region 4 and 6 is not going back to no god damn PPP you have got to be out of your god damn mind. Oh Great Shitstain.

Django - this is great data, Voter turnout was up in 2011 vs 2006.

Do we think that is gonna go down or up?

Django like e run away wid e post. 

http://www.idea.int/vt/countryview.cfm?id=94

Oh Great Shitstain by those numbers deh and de slappin and beatin up of dem Amerindians in region 9 by de PPP foolice, guess wah?

Region 7,8,9 all going to Coalition.....PPP cark duck.

The population numbers are not reflected in the votes. That's a fact.

My point idiot is that there are votes since 2001 that have produced 35 Indian seats, 27 Black seats, and 3 Amerindian seats in Parliament. Get that through your skull.

The hurdle for your Coalition is not just the Indian vote but also the Amerindian vote.

Redux..I was trying to paste the data in

post,can't get it right,any way the link is

here.

Good campaign can bring the numbers up.

Oh Great Shitstain i know this may be difficult for you because you are accustomed to the ceramic circle. But take a look at the data above.

Region 1, Region 7,8,9 are all very heavy Amerindian populations.

Region 2 also has a fair amount of Amerindians. I will add one other dimension to region 2, Naith Ram bought a new tigther model bukta. You know what dat means for you and de PPP?

APNU/AFC need a strong campaign

in region 2 and 3 they need to pull

some votes from PPP

The PPP has been losing votes in every general election since 1997. Here are the numbers:

1997: 220,667

2001: 210,013

2006: 183,867

2011: 166,340

So, within a span of just 14 years, the PPP lost 54,327 votes.

Donald and his gang are dead ducks, nothing can bring these scumbags back to life.

I feel pretty comfortable in stating the voting electorate of Guyana is as follows based on a perusal of 2001, 2006, 2011 results:

Indian 54%   (good for 35 seats)

Black/Mixed 42%   (good for 27 seats)

Amerindian 4%     (good for 3 seats)

what is your point ?

Weh you brain deh bai Harsie?

The point is that the Coalition has to run the gauntlet of a comfortable Indian/Amerindian majority electorate.

The PPP's universe is essentially 58% of the electorate that it can appeal to.

Almost defying demographic trends, the Indian share of the vote has not budged at 54% since 2001. That's one reason the Gold Teet Brigade keeps waving around that number. It represents the total Indian participation in any of our recent elections.

One can reasonably expect 54% Indians and 4% Amerindians to show up once again.

What surprised me is that these racial percentages of the vote have remained almost unchanged since 2001.

"votng electorate" is misleading since "turnout" is what u are reaching for

the calculus regarding what is "reasonable" or "unreasonable" in 2015 changes accordingly

I know this is arguable. However, I'm now convinced "turnout" isn't going to alter the situation by much.

The voting rolls are terribly bloated and to rely on them for a "turnout" argument does not seem like a good bet.

I would venture to say that turnout in Guyana is still sufficiently high and unlikely to change much.

The turnout narrative is fueled by a wildly inaccurate voting list.

if not "turnout," what do you mean by "voting electorate"??

"registered" voters, perhaps?

In the absence of evidence to the contrary, I think we should conflate the racial percentages of the voting electorate who turn out to vote with the racial percentages of the registered voter list.

The evidence for this is the incredible stability of the racial percentages in the 2001, 2006, and 2011 results.