* The supporters of both the PPP and PNC are energized, charged up and ready to vote for their party.

* But as we all know, in any election in which the supporters of both the PPP and PNC are motivated and inspired to cast their votes the PPP will win.

BOTTOM LINE:

* 50+1% of the Guyana electorate will re-elect the PPP and experience the thrill of victory; 50-1% will support the PNC and experience the agony of defeat.

Rev

* First of all storm bai watch your language. The Rev does not usually respond to disrespectful posters.

RE: INCUMBENCY

* 3 years ago Donald Ramotar was a virtual unknown. He was plucked from obscurity by Jagdeo and his PPP/civic party despite running a piss poor campaign managed to get 48.6% of the votes----the PNC which ran a good campaign received 40.8% of the votes.

* In the 3 years since Ramotar has been president the Guyana economy has continued to progress.

* More importantly incumbent Ramotar has won the trust and respect of the majority of Guyanese.

* And most importantly the vast majority of the genuine and authentic East Indians in Guyana are eager and enthusiastic to vote for the PPP in 2015---thousands were discouraged and despondent and stayed at home in 2011.

* Come May 11th, 50+1% of the Guyana electorate will re-elect the PPP.

Rev

Simple Simon is too dumb to ask why this didn't happen under the PPP.

Region 3 is now more important than Region 6.  If APNU AFC make inroads into the rice farmers this will offset any loss in Region 6.

The Amerindians are an unknown quality.  Their turn out is low and much of their past behavior was about running with the winner to get the spoils. With the PPP being less obviously the winner, and the Granger campaigning heavily in those areas it isn't assured that a high Amerindian turn out favors the PPP.  In fact I suspect the opposite, as many of the votes in the past were an ageing generation accustomed to voting as their tochaos commanded. Will a new generation behave this way?

1.  Now that the people know more about Ramotar they don't seem impressed.  This is why Jagdeo is campaigning so heavily even as he isn't running for any position.

2.  Gold has begun to slow.  Sugar is a disgrace.  Rice has problems as the rice farmers are being paid a pittance.  How do you know that your average Guyanese feels well off.  In fact the money laundered inspired construction boom in G/town might have convinced them how increasingly skewed income distribution in Guyana is, plus the increased Chinese-ization of the economy is upsetting many.

They are a very well off business owner living outside of Guyana.  They think that Harper has some deep seated issues, or maybe is being coerced.

carib bai:

* Region 3 is as safe as a child on its mother's breast as far as the PPP is concerned.

* Back in 2011 the PPP received 33K votes in region 3; the PNC 14K; AFC 3K

* In 2015 the PPP will win that region convincingly again.

Rev

Antiman,

Region 3 today is about as safe as Region 6 was the week before the 2011 Election for the PPP.

A loss of several thousand Indians in Region 3 and a lightly higher APNU turnout in Region 4 means the PPP is an Opposition Party chap.

This is the reality today. Region 3 Indians who may defect to the Coalition because of PPP buggery. And Region 4's uncertain Black/Mixed turnout who are reasonably situated to have a higher turnout.

carib:

* Listen up!

* 50-1% of the Guyanese people---negative and pessimistic people like yourself---may not be impressed by Ramotar---that is understandable.

* But 50+1% of the people are enchanted and captivated by their leader. He has clearly inspired and motivated them, and come May 11th they will re-elect him as their President.

Rev

The Indian vote is maybe 45%, the African maybe 35%. The PPP can win by attracting a few cross ethnic votes as it has the power of incumbency.  APNU AFC have to work harder to get these cross ethnic votes.

The PPP, because it is the incumbent, attracts a larger % of non Indian votes, maybe 60% of the Amerindian, 20% of the mixed (TK cited a study) and 5% of the black (or 10% of the black/mixed).  APNU basically gets only black and some mixed votes.  The AFC have yet to prove that they have a permanent support base.

So while neither party can win an election based on tribal calls alone the PPP still has an advantage.  It can buy votes.  Intimidate voters (poor people who received houselots).  It can bribe polling station officials.

So at the end of the day this is a 50:50 election. 

What has the PPP at a disadvantage is that this is the first time that they aren't the presumed winner.  But then that might make the tribal calls more powerful as they get Indians (who might have previously not planned to vote) out to vote PPP out of fear of a marauding African dictatorship, should APNU AFC win.

There are many unknowns, the biggest being the extent to which Indians in the 25-35 age range (so outside of the control of their parents) buy into what APNU AFC is selling.

The disaffected blacks/mixed, especially males, who don't vote still might not vote.  But then maybe they will.......another unknown, based on whether they see Granger as being interested in them.  APNU does seem to be attracting more young faces to their rallies than in prior years when they consisted of mainly middle aged black (not mixed) women.

Why don't you go through your notes about Obama and see why you making predictions actually hurts the people who you support.

How many younger and more educated Indians do you think by into your racist drivel, not only directed against blacks, but also against Indians who are exercising their rights to support who ever they wish?

And in 2006 the PPP won 35k, PNC 11k and the AFC less than 3k.

Now take the APNU 14k plus the AFC 3k and add around 3k more to take into account angry rice farmers.  Give the PPP 30k, again because of angry rice famers.  Yes the PPP still wins but APNU AFC gets vital votes to add on top of the huge haul that they will make in Region 4.  Region 3 was HUGELY helpful to APNU last time.

* The PPP won region 3 with nearly 66% of the votes in 2011 and is expected to win the region by a similar percentage in 2015.

*Listen shitaan! Folks like you and carib are free to engage in sophistry, fantasy and wishful thinking. It is your prerogative. You are free to reason out and intellectualize a PNC win. But come May 11th 50+1% of the Guyana electorate will re-elect the PPP.

Rev 

Most Reverend Antiman,

Let's assume arguendo that the PPP is indeed at 51% or even wins at 51% on May 11th.

That would mean that an extraordinary Coalition supported by Blacks, Mixed, Indians, and Amerindians ganged up successfully and came within 1 point of power.

This means that Indians and Amerindians were willing to put aside the PNC's sordid history because they view the PPP as the BIGGER baddie now.

49% for a multiethnic Coalition in GUYANA of all places? Mene mene tekel upharsin!

shitaan bai:

* I will ignore the "Most Reverend Antiman" personal attack---your bitterness and irritation is understandable. It must deeply pain and infuriate you to know that the PPP will continue to rule Guyana after the May 11th election.

* By the way shitaan, when Obama won the 2012 elections he received 51.1% of the popular votes(332EV)----guess what ? Obama couldn't give a rat's ass about the 48.9% who didn't vote for him---he facting won.

* In Guyana the PPP will win with 50+1% of the votes---and like winner Obama they won't give a rat's ass about the 50-1% who voted against them.

* IN POLITICS A WIN IS A WIN REGARDLESS OF THE MARGIN.

* Anyway shitaan, keep on analyzing Guyana's politics---the reason you, the Rev and all the others post here is we are intrigued by the political game in the old country.

* Once again shitaan, the Rev forgives your petulance--call me all the names you want---but come May 11th the party I support(PPP/Civic) will emerge victorious with 50+1% of the votes.

Rev

Rev your screams of Obama 47% were well remembered together with your obscene bigotry.

We will now remember your 50+1%.  The problem is that if 2 people fail to vote PPP your prediction will be wrong.

It turns out that even you aren't confident of a guaranteed PPP win, even though you pretend otherwise.

My dear sista Rev Ali, the PPP/Cabalry are corrupted ,big time thieves. Look at the life style of the ministers and senior members of the government and then look at the poor,struggling and suffering people. The ppp have looted the country and what they have not stolen they give to their friends or sold to foreigners for their own benefits.

Rev why are you sleeping in ignorance? 

carib:

* It seems as if you are mathematically challenged.

* Lemme help you out.50+1% is really 51%---It is not 50% + 1 vote.

* In the 2011 election the PPP received 166,340 votes out of the 342,236 votes cast----that's 48.6%

* 50+1% of the votes for the PPP in the 2011 election would have been 174,540

* 174,540(50+1%) - 166,340(48.6%) = 8200 votes

* In 2015 with the PPP base energized and motivated to turn out and vote---50+1% it will be for the PPP.

Rev

50+1% is really 51%

No.....50 (the cardinal) is not 50%. So you mean 50 votes plus 1% of the votes cast. If the votes cast = 300,000, then 1% = 3,000. You're giving the PPP a total of 3,001 votes. diabolique, mon cher!!!

Rev, you are mathematically challenged. You should have stayed in grade school a bit longer.

If 174,540 =(50+1%)

then 1% = 174,540 - 50 = 173, 490

Ok Dunce?