carib:

* Here is how the PPP will do better percentage-wise in the next election.

* It is patently obvious that the PNC is currently in shambles, and the disunity in the leadership of that party will result in thousands of PNC supporters staying home in the next election, just like they did in 2006.

* And with thousands of PNC supporters sitting out the next election, the PPP is guaranteed percentage-wise to match the percentage result they got in 2006. It's simple mathematics carib bai.

* SAY THANKS REV.

Rev

Stormborn you must be confusing me with your PPP buddies.  Indeed I knew that the AFc wouldn't beat the PNC but I under estimated how well the PNC would do.  You will recall that it is only in the last stretch that APNU began to campaign because they had no money for the long haul.  In addition the AFC lacked the financial and manpower resources and so focused every thing on Regions 5 and 6.

I predicted that the PPP would get 49%.  I thought that APNU would do about the same as the PNC did in 2006, suggesting that the AFC would get just under 20% of the votes. They got 10%, and I remember GR and others in shock wondering what went wrong.  I reminded him of course of my warnings that the AFC was abandoning the urban vote, and in the end they lost much of what they gained in 2006.

 The AFc was squawking at the time that they would replace the PNC as the main opposition party. 

This consistent trend for them to over estimate their support base.  And I see it again today with the no confidence vote.  APNU is lazy and aren't going to move beyond their ethnic base of around 40%.  The PPP will keep a substantial % of its ethnic base as well.  So where does that leave the AFC?

Bottom line is that rather than replacing the PNC as the main opposition party the AFC got 10%, equivalent to the UF vote in its heyday. 

Now Kari admits that the AFC will not win this next go round.  My question to him will be if that is the case why focus on national elections instead of the LONG OVER DUE LGE?

Because if all we have is a PPP plurality at 42% with the AFC increasing its share to 17% I will be at a loss to explain why the expense of the early election implied by the no confidence vote will have achieved.

I know what it would have done/  LGE is what most Guyanese want. WHy? Because local govt has collapsed throughout Guyana because there have been no LGE for TWENTY years.  The PPP likes it that way because they get to install IMC in areas like G/town and Linden where they would never win.  It also allows them to avoid the embarrassment of losing seats in places like the Corentyne and Essequibo where they usually win.

The AFc had done a brilliant job in bringing the issue of the LGE to the fore front.  International agencies and the donor govts had also joined the campaign for LGE, much as they joined the campaign for free and fair national elections in the early 90s.

The ball was dropped, and Guyanese are confused.

So when will LGE be, and what should people do in the interim as they see their towns and villages crumble?

PNC in shambles, that does not mean that AFC will not continue to pull votes from the PPP and PNC!

the PNC was in shambles in 2011. Indeed even the AFC boasted that they would replace them as the main opposition party. 

APNU arrested its declining support, something that the PPP is yet to do. The result is that MORE people voted in 2011 than in 2006, with the PNC being the main beneficiary if this.  The PPP suffered the most as voter turn out in rural coastal Guyana declined, and the AFC too a decent share of this reduced voter turn out because Nagamootoo took some of his flock.

So increasing votes for the PPP.  No way as they are now in worse shape than they have ever been and even when they were in better shape they were still losing voters.  The grass roots Indians feel abandoned by the PPP elite, and every time another small business man is robbed, injured, maybe even killed, this feeling deepens.  This on top of the complaints made by the rice farmers and sugar workers.

I could also mean that more PPP and PNC supporters might simply not vote.

The AFC made a mistake by dropping the ball on the LGE.

I see this is what the PPP is telling itself.

1. FACT.  The PPP is in poor shape with the Cheddi-ite factions in open war fare with the Jagdeoites, many of the former now defecting over to the AFC.

2. FACT. The Indian grass roots feel abandoned by the PPP elites and there isn't a single person in the PPP with the charisma of a Cheddi, or even a Jagdeo to woo them back.

3. FACT.  The PNC support base is more motivated by hatred of the PPP and a desire to see them removed than they are by what they think of the PNC leadership.  They sat out the 2006 elections because there was mixed messaging about whether the elections should be boycotted, and also their feeling that Corbin was selling out to the PPP.

The same infighting was very much on issue in 2011 between Corbin factions and others.  Yet APNU snatched the ball that the AFC dropped and galvanized the black vote and got them out.  They took back the votes which they lost in 2006.

4.  FACT.  now that PNC supporters see the open warfare between the Cheddiites and the Jagdeoites, played out in a PPP vs. AFC battle they are more motivated than ever by the fact that the PPP can be defeated as the Indian vote will be split.   Now I am always of the opinion that the PNC will shoot its own toes off, as they have that habit, but unless Granger caves in to the PPP then he will get his people out.

5. FACT.  The Amerindian vote wasn't enough to guarantee the PPP a majority vote.  Now that the Jagdeoite vs. Cheddiite warfare is deeper than ever it is likely that PPP supporters will be even more confused than ever.  This will lead many not to vote.

Result. APNU will hold onto its base, but not expand it.  The PPP will continue to lose votes due to emigration, declining voter turn out in its strong holds, and increasing inroads by the AFC.

PPP 42% APNU 40% AFC 18%.  This will lead to a constitutional crisis as with almost 60% of the population rejecting the PPP they will not be able to claim a mandate to rule.

Luncheon has already forecasted that the days of majority rule are over, which is why he is trying to buy out Granger.

* The English language seems to confound many of you folks on GNI. Also, mathematically many of you are woefully inadequate.

CHECK THIS:

In the last election this was the result:

PPP 166,340 votes---48.6%

PNC 139, 678---------40.8

AFC  35,333-----------10.3

Total 342, 126

QUESTION:

* All else remaining the same, If 10,000 PNC supporters had stayed home last election, what would have been the PPP's percentage win in 2011 ?

ANSWER: 50.08%

BOTTOM LINE:

* With the PNC in disarray and with thousands of their supporters staying home in the upcoming election, the PPP is guaranteed to win a majority like they did in 2006.

Rev

THE 21 MOST MISERABLE COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD

The MISERY INDEX adds together a country's unemployment and inflation rates.

* STALE BREAD Moses Nagamootoo and his fellow PPP HATERS will be grossly disappointed that Guyana is not among the 21 countries.

* Guyana's neighbor Venezuela is ranked #1 as the most MISERABLE country in the world based on the Misery Index.

* 4 other South American countries are also on the Miserable countries list---Brazil, Chile, Columbia, and Uruguay.

* But must to the consternation of Moses and his fellow PPP HATERS, Guyana is not on the list.

* Click on the link to view the list of the 21 most Miserable countries in the world.

http://www.businessinsider.com...ble-countries-2014-8

Rev

you still around i think you will do the smart thing and hide from KALI 

Rev the PNC was in disarray in 2011 and then shocked every one, including me with how well they did.

What you seem not to know is that what motivates PC supporters isn't who leads the PNC, but it is their hatred of the PPP. The ONLY thing that will keep them away, as they smell the blood of a bleeding PPP losing votes to the Cheddi-ite faction now with the AFC, will be if Granger sells out to the PPP as Corbin did.

So run along and concoct some panic about "dem big bad and ignorant black man after collie man daughter" to frighten them back to the PPP.  Because that is all the PPP is good for.

Rev did the fact that Haiti was also not on this index not inform you that the news is worse than you thought.  Guyana is so MISERABLE that they couldn't even be bothered to analyze whether it is miserable or not!

Next election: PPP = 55%, PNC = 39%, AFC 6%

Next Election: PPP=35%, PNC= 36%. AFC 25%, Others 4%

And I guess now that the PPP has all the Burnham riggers with them they have already printed the ballots and placed them ready for counting.

Because that is the ONLY way that the PPP will get a record % of the votes in an era when their own supporters are rioting against them in Essequibo.  And fleeing Berbice in droves, complaining about crime and the Berbice Bridge and the sorry state of the sugar industry.

Base,

Our numbers are close, I am predicting 52 percent for certain.  55 % percent will be a bonus.

PPP needs to spend and crush the AFC.

AFC has a bunch of talk man who are full of BS.

In America and Canada we say, money talks and and BS walks.

AFC is broke and the PPP will demolish them at the upcoming elections. "Boots on the Ground, Kick the AFC/PNC down, Spend Baby, Spend".

yuji:

* Moses Nagamootoo, Khemraj Ramjattan and the other blowhards over at the AFC are all TALKERS.

* Talking is their specialty---remember many of them are 3rd rate lawyers.

* BUT GREAT TALKERS LIKE STALE BREAD MOSES ARE LITTLE DOERS.

* Guyana needs DOERS not TALKERS. Thanks to the PPP and the private sector Guyana is moving forward, slowly but surely.

Rev

* carib bai don't piss on Haiti. They have made wonderful progress in rebuilding their nation since the hurricane.

* Another thing, Haitiains may be materially poor, but many have better hearts and souls than the stressed out, greedy, materialistic  fools you meet in North America.

Rev

SAM HINDS IS STALE BREAD. THE PPP NEEDS A FRESH FACE AS PM

* A woman like Carolyn Rodrigues would be an excellent choice.

Rev

I agree, carolyn would make an excellent choice as vote getter.

REV we agree!

Rev, stale bread is good for crouton.

Frank Antony would also be a powerful vote getter.

Haiti is the most miserable country in the Americas and there is not one Haitian who will deny that fact.

The survey covered nations of consequence in this world.  Neither Guyana nor Haiti fit that bill.  Nor Nicaragua, Honduras, Bolivia or Paraguay, which also didn't make the list, but are quite miserable.

Plumpy is too busy managing her real estate holdings.

Plumpy Piya is out of this race.  I wonder who is the young black muslim boy that the PPP engaged.  Is he a senior leader in CIOG?

* Frank is young. He is also very intelligent. He is a good family man. Haven't heard any controversy about him.

STALE BREAD SAM HINDS, ON THE OTHER HAND, HUSTLING WOMAN----HE SHOULD BE SENT INTO RETIREMENT

* POPPYCOCK!

* A Haitian friend of mine, Dr. Supiese, he is a surgeon here in New York. He recently returned from a visit to Haiti. He told me he was very pleased with the progress being made.

* By the way Dr. Supiese spent weeks in Haiti volunteering just after the earthquake. Good man.

Rev

* MIRACLES DO OCCUR. Maybe Rev should go play the Mega Millions.

Rev

Progress is subjective. Else, define it.

* RASS! YUH MEAN IS STALE BREAD THEY SERVE WITH MY CHEF SALAD ? BUT I LOVE IT.

Rev

PROGRESS IS PROGRESS NO MATTER HOW SMALL.

* You saw the catastrophic destruction in Haiti after the earthquake.

* Take a ride in Haiti today--the place bustling.

Reverse couldn't even spell bloody progress nevermind defining it.

* You seem to be harboring some unnecessary ill will and bad blood HM_redux.

* Listen! Lighten up bai. Life too short to vex up yuhself.

Rev

* New thread in SOCIAL--check it out---click:

https://guyana.crowdstack.io/topic/rev-true-or-false

Rev

Rev

The AFC/PNC posters talked so much that they no longer have a positive and cohesive message. They are now resorting to vulgarity and nudity.

* RAAAASSSS! MITWAH TUN PNC.hahaha

Rev

I think the AFC percentage is wishful thinking. Not going to happen.. more like 5%.

* In the 2011 election, the AFC were prancing around predicting they would win 20-25%. They ended up with 10.4%.

* BIG TALK & BIG MOUTH---AFC attributes.

* You're right! Next election the AFC will lose half the percentage vote they got in 2011.

Rev

Quit bragging. English is the least of your aptitude or the horrible presentation of data crayolized and delivered in lists would not be so appealing to you. Get it...is is stupid. It has no coherency and presentation wise covers lots of space given how little worth it is.

Mathematically...what makes you king? Writing the same crap over and over does not make it more viable. Further, you have a history of this kind of bragging and presumption of definite truths that failed horribly. Check your yapping on obama.

You are making the basic erroneous assumption that the behavior of the population will remain constant. Their personal lives have been in upheaval given poor performance of the PPP in all sectors of the economy that matters to them. They also see the rapacious theft and obscene accumulation of wealth in the PPP. It definitely will affect their choices

The PPP is exposed and vulnerable. They have an almost perverse  dependency on the usual dog whistling about the "black" PNC  and fail to grasp that has appeal only to the old people who are still entrenched in their racism. The young do not care. Take a look at social media, cross cultural couples are open and unashamed as in the past and these are everywhere. These people will not bit the PPP race pill.

Again, you are making the same stilted assumptions as the PPP and that is the reason they lost the last time.