The first polls closed at 6 PM eastern time in most of Maine (4), Kentucky (8) and Indiana (11), all States that are solid Republican. While only two States do not have all-or-nothing winners, Maine and Nebraska can have their Electoral College votes divvied up.
So the first results will give Trump at least a 19 - 0 lead over Hillary with maybe the 4 Maine split or 3 to 1 for Trump.
At 7 PM in 3 minutes more States will close their polls. So keep it here for running results.
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Georgia (16) and Virginia (13) have closed. The Black vote is crucial in Georgia. This will tell a lot about Caribny's famed turnout.
Vermont (3) looks like Hillary's fist State winner.
So far the results look like as expected.
Senate results - two Republicans (Rand Paul and Tim Scott) and one Democrat (Pat Leahy) look likely to retain their seats - so far as expected. I look for 4 or 5 GOP seats to be flipped giving the Dems a one seat Senate majority.
So let's begin the math:
TRUMP 19 Hillary 3
The Florida panhandle (mostly Appalachias) as expected is going to Trump 2 to 1. So far it's only 2% of precincts reporting in Florida.
7:40 PM West Virginia (5) as expected goes to Trump.
TRUMP 24 Hillary 3
Get a life, we don't need you to tell us the results, it is on all tv channels and news outlets.
Drugb posted:Get a life, we don't need you to tell us the results, it is on all tv channels and news outlets.
Some people need attention.
In the 2 big battleground States Florida (29)0 and North Carolina (15) are heading Clinton's way - given the precincts reporting (the percentage and the particular counties ewhen looked at with Obama's performance).
Ohio was expected to be tough for Hillary but she seems comfortable there.
Clinton wins her expected North-east States and DC:
DC (3) Delaware (3) New Jersey (14) Maryland (10) Massachusetts (11) for a total of 41
Trump gets Oklahoma (7).
TRUMP 31 Hillary 44
No surprises so far, but watch Ohio - Hillary is doing better than Obama in the counties that reported so far.
8:11 South Carolina (9) goes to Trump - a safe GOP State.
TRUMP 40 Hillary 44
GNI - the blog of record.
The early trend is not a landslide in the States reporting one way or the other. The results are as expected. That doesn't bode well for Trump as he needs to flip some Blue States, even if he wins Florida.
Trump may win Florida - a huge win for him; but Clinton can afford to lose this and still win.
Kari posted:Trump may win Florida - a huge win for him; but Clinton can afford to lose this and still win.
FL can be a Hillary win. Many votes in the southeast not counted. This is 30% of the population.
Kari posted:Georgia (16) and Virginia (13) have closed. The Black vote is crucial in Georgia. This will tell a lot about Caribny's famed turnout.
The KKK is riding so blacks will vote out of fear.
Get back to me when the GOP candidate isn't a KKK fan, retweeting their screams.
I can tell that you like black fear based voting. They vote for a party which does nothing for them, because they fear another which will do something to them.
Of course when blacks demand attention in exchange for ensuring that the Democrats win folks like you display your closet racism by screaming that they want handouts.
Bet you didn't say anything when white women demanded that the White House set up a special initiative to deal with their issues. BTW black women count themselves as black before they count themselves as women because when the cops harass them they rain blows on these women as if they are men.
In the early returns Trump is performing like a normal Republican - he's more competitive than we thought as an outsider. It means that a lot of Republicans returned home. This is why the changing demographic and minority turnout is what Clinton's trump cards are.
In the next half-hour we'll get closer to the moment of truth - either a regular time for declaring a winner between 11 PM and Midnight or a looonnnng night. Trump is still in it as you'd expect a generic Republican to be. The battleground States are truly battleground indeed this time around.
Texas stays GOP. So far the trend line is that it is competitive in the battleground States, and the safe States stayed safe.
Hillary has won 8 safe Democratic States and Trump has won 8 safe Republican States, 3 not-so-safe and 1 contested but leaning Republican (West Virginia that he could have lost). So from Trump's perspective he's doing better than expected in the earlier going.
Hillary's not-so-safe and contested but leaning emocratic have not yet come in and I believe that's the key.
Therefore look out for Florida and North Carolina as leaning Democratic but contested and Pennsylvania and Ohio that are not-so-safe but she should win.
Watch those 4 States.
Trump could pull off a Florida win
Rust Belt State Michigan - Trump is doping a Brexit here or what? Well, it's early yet but the counties that reported are the ones Obama carried handily and Hillary is in a tough fight.
If Pennsylvania holds, one of her firewall State will make it difficult for Trump.
However I have to say that Trump is doing better than the 320 to 218 Ii expected, and it's reflected in the Senate race also - the Dems may not get that magical +4 they need.
What this all says is that Republicans stayed true to their party and Independents were shy of Hillary more than Trump. But it's early yet. The takeaway is that it is not the runaway that seemed likely. It's a fight.
The Dow Futures are down by 500 points! That means they smell a Trump victory.
Florida doesn't look good for Hillary. That a 58 Electoral vote swing. At least she's holding her lead in Pennsylvania.
I thought it was 29 in Florida
Both NY Times Upshot and Nate silver 538 have Trump winning in an up-to-date forecast.
Trump has won 3 more safe Republican States and Hillary 1 more safe Democratic State. Expectations hold.
Again it's down to the battleground States.
TRUMP 140 Hillary 104
Nate Silver has Hillary at 61% chance of winning; but look at NY Times which has Trump at 80% chance of winning. This is certainly a topsy-turvy election - just like the campaigning.
The financial markets continue to be nervous.
cbs is now leaning to a Trump Florida win
Plus CNN just called Ohio for Trump. If Florida goes Trump as it seems, it might go tumbling down for the Clintons. Lock her up!!!
Kari you still have your champagne.
When Florida is officially called for Trump, Ohio means that Michigan will be the deciding State and right now Trump is ahead there.
Celebration on 5th Ave?
Tears at the Javits Center?
Keep perspective here folks. So far the only key statistic is that Trump has =won one battleground State Ohio. All other wins for either candidate have been as expected.
That said Florida (which Hillary can afford to lose) doesn't look good for her. She just needs two States to win - Pennsylvania (which looks good for her) and Michigan - we'll see.
By my estimate Safe + Close Hillary will have 255 Electoral votes. The leaves Florida, No Carolina, Arizona, Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire that were leaning Democrat for her to get the needed 15.
She looks good in Nevada (6) and New Hampshire (4). She could lose Florida and No. Carolina as looks likely and she can still win Wisconsin (10) with Arizona (11)0 to spare.
Trump takes another leaning Democratic State North Carolina (15). Obama lost this State to Mitt Romney in 2012 BTW.
So that's 2 States that Trump won that he was expected to have lost - Ohio (18) and No. Carolina (15). He will probably win Florida (29). Still he needs a few more battleground States to win. All Hillary needs is to hold Pennsylvania (she's leading)) and win Michigan (at 38% returns she's down slightly).
Give Trump Florida and add California and Oregon. It's now:
TRUMP 216 Hillary 197
Hillary needs 73. Here's how she can do it.
She's sure to win Washington (12), Minnesota (10), Vermont (3). that's 25. That leaves 48. These are leaning Democrat - Arizona (11), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4). that leaves 27. She will win Pennsylvania (20) where she leads. that's 7. Michigan is 16.
Hello Michigan.
Kari posted:Give Trump Florida and add California and Oregon. It's now:
TRUMP 216 Hillary 197
Hillary needs 73. Here's how she can do it.
She's sure to win Washington (12), Minnesota (10), Vermont (3). that's 25. That leaves 48. These are leaning Democrat - Arizona (11), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4). that leaves 27. She will win Pennsylvania (20) where she leads. that's 7. Michigan is 16.
Hello Michigan.
You need to go play with the map. We lost.
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