We need the 2012 population data to make such a projection. The PPP is hiding the numbers. The only reason they're doing that is because the Indian population declined below 40%. If true how can they get a majority in light of all the wrongs since 2012?

Throw in some allowances for our higher voter participation generally and also the old tend to vote in higher numbers as well, and adjust Black numbers downwards to account for the opposite case in both instances.

Accurate observation. 

The assumption that the AFC will bring a majority to APNU is inaccurate. This is the most accurate and honest prediction. 

For the greater good of Guyana, I hope that Mark does well.

Mark's presence will send a message to both the PNC and PPP yhat the days of race voting is coming to an end.

I owe you some kind of apology chap. Once in a blue moon in politics, one can just haul numbers out of thin air and the stars will align so that they become justified by facts yet to be known....now of course we known them

I always try to be as fair and honest as I can be in my prognostications.

P.S....the AFC could have brought a majority to APNU but only with Nagamootoo as the Presidential Candidate. Nothing less was gonna be good enough to argue the matter on the Corentyne etc.

This boggles my mind,how will the voters vote

for a party that squandered and wasted so

much money.

Voters have simpler concerns and fears. They are not really motivated by corruption because the State still runs somewhat ok and they don't spend time pontificating about liberal democracy. That is a middle class hobby of the diaspora.

It is all about turnout. The trend is the percentage. The Indian share is falling relative to all the others. The key will be the Amerindian votes. Who will get Region 8? AFC will win that again. Can APNU take 9 this time?

Bai Django, Granted that some of the money was wasted. Much of the money was spent improving the lives of the Guyanese population. Drive down Berbice road and see for yourself. The people on the Corentyne have benefitted immensely from the projects. You need to go and see for yourself. Get out of Gerogetown area.

The Regional constituencies don't count dude. People make that mistake so often. The geographical constituencies don't mean anything beyond some MPs getting extra wuk fuh do.

Parliament is still by law going to reflect the national vote to the last whole number of voter.

Mr. Learned One: There is no AFC anymore after today's announcement. It's PPP, APNU and some night bus parties.

We don't know for certain whether they've benefited or not. PPP refuses to publish:

1. Unemployment statistics

2. Labor force participation

3. Poverty statistics

4. Household income

The only thing we know is migration from Region picked up in the last 5 years? Are they escaping from utopia? Or are they seeking better?

Big improvements in Guyana just look at the national University......a pig sty in america is better.

This shows Major PPP success the past 22 years....

I started UG in Sep 1992. PPP won in Oct 1992, so I had the opportunity to see the university during PNC time and PPP time. I have to say the PNC had the campus in much better shape. There were also a higher number of faculty with PhDs.

You mean to say that the PPP did all the wrongs while the APNU/AFC had the majority of seats in the National Assembly? What did the majority mean to them and what did the majority do to stop it?

I refer you to the CJ ruling announced yesterday.

  No you don't unless you get two pieces of information.

1.  the ethnic composition of the population ABOVE 18 as of when ever registration closes and

2.  the ethnic break down of those who are registered.

Only adults can legally vote, and only those who are registered can cast ballots.  So to claim that mixed voters are 20%, if 50% of them are too to vote, doesn't help. 

I feel confident that an analysis will show the following.

1. Extreme low registration and voting by Amerindians.  And that those who do vote are those controlled by the tochaos, hence PPP victories in Amerindian areas.

2. That registration among blacks in depressed urban communities is lower than among Indian rural communities.  The PNC has had a weak traditional get out to vote apparatus and this became even weaker when Corbin took over.

So you cannot use an Indian 40% of the TOTAL population and therefore think that the APNU/AFC has the remaining 60%.

The Guyana state runs ok? Have you not seen how predatory the police force is? How PS are now openly campaigning in elections? How messed up their foreign policy is? How documents are disappearing and people cannot get justice in court? NIS is in crisis.

 The Opposition hated the CJ. Why are you referring me to his ruling?

I thought that Mark said that he wasn't going to run in the National, but would do so in the LGE, as he didn't want to be seen as a spoiler?

I will give you some home work.  Look at the population of the interior regions, and then look at the voter turn out.  The rates are abysmal, and I suspect even lower among Amerindians than among others living in these regions.

If you don't get the votes from the coastal peoples, where the PPP has an advantage, you cannot make up the deficit in the interior.

When the PPP wins back the parliament and screams how popular they are, APNU will shrug their shoulders and say, don't blame us.

It will be among the AFC that there will be much angst and thrashing and ranting about how they allowed Nagamootoo's ambition to dash them against rocks in a stormy sea.

I don't think that your average Indian will think that the police will be less predatory under a Granger led gov't.

TK focus on the fact that its now Ramotar vs. Granger.  Nagamootoo is now the Sam Hinds of the APNU, and how many votes did Sam Hinds bring the PPP?  A few thousand in Linden, and no where else.

The onus will be on Nagamootoo to prove us wrong and he will only do so if he develops such a momentum PRIOR to the election that disaffected PPP voters think that he will be a power of force within the APNU/AFC alliance.

Pathetic protests with 8 people holding placards, and bottom house meetings consisting of 50 of the already converted isn't going to do it.

 Again

I have to agree with you. Moses as Presidential Candidate meant trouble for the PPP.

The PPP was handed the Presidency and a Majority as a result of AFC's merger with APNU and Moses as Prime Ministerial Candidate. AFC made a huge political blunder.

Politics as usual in Guyana. Indo Guyanese will now flock to Mommy PPP.

Just enjoying my World Cup Cricket right now. No need to a argue about Guyana's election. We all know what the final result will look like.

Once again you Freedom House chaps have put us Coolie Bright Bais to shame.

tHE afc did that a few elections back .

The combined opposition would have had a good win if they had Comrade Moses as the Presidential candidate with Joe Harmon as the Prime Minister candidate.  How many Indos will vote for a President Granger. I don't think much especially in those PPP hardcore areas which the combined opposition has to make inroads in with indos there to come close to winning an election. 

 The AFC-APNU ticket will be a very hard sell  especially in the traditional PPP areas....but it is possible to make significant inroads if the campaign would focus on mismanagement especially in the sugar industry, corruption involving close friends of Jagdeo and Ramouthar, and racist approach to the awarding of government contracts.....  

Can Ramouthtar better this valentine deal?

1.  AFC presently has 7 seats. The agreement gives AFC12 seats win, lose or draw.
2. AFC gets Head of the presidential secretariat, who is secretary to cabinet
and secretary of the Defence Board.
3. AFC gets Prime minister with increase power. The prime minister will now
chair cabinet, is responsible for identifying ministers and structuring the
ministries.
4. AFC gets 40 percent of all ministerial positions.
5. AFC gets the ministries of Agriculture, Natural Resources, Home Affairs and Tourism.
6. Civil society is promised to be Leader of the List of Representatives and
Speaker of the National Assembly.
7. APNU gets the presidency with reduced powers.
8. AFC gets two Vice presidents.
9. APNU gets one Vice president.
10. APNU gets 60 percent of the cabinet which includes foreign affairs and
finance.
11. The parliamentary configuration of the APNU and AFC does not equal 60/40.
12. AFC went into the negotiation the smaller partner but came out holding all the critical power and has secured more seats, win lose or draw.

http://www.stabroeknews.com/20...polls/#disqus_thread

If Benchop bleeds 2 to three he will be staling it from the APNU and indeed the PPP can win. However, barely. He will not even do as good as Ravi or Sharma did and is actually, in my opinion, a non factor.

I am waiting for a piece of software to convert the PDF data to excel files and get a better grasp of the data. I did it  for a few small villages compared to the last and they do not give me much hope the PPP has its historical base intact.

Interesting how he list above is all about what the politicians get.

Guyanese are not different from you and I. We were PPPites and rested our hopes that they willl manage justly. They turned out to be thieves and we no longer trust them. Similarly, in many areas the impact of mismanagement, cronyism and bribes for the smallest thing is severe. In the rice belt people are at their wits end with money. They are not sure if and when they will be paid.

I am sure you know who I am so you   know we rent almost 300 acres to small farmers and we do not get paid any rent because they cannot pay. By the time the get their money from the millers they already owe everybody the more than they get.  One miller rents from us and he also cries to pay so I suspect all of black bush is persuadable.

Again, they only need to persuade 7 to 10k indians to make a difference.

This is where constitutional reform provides the best solution. Where elected representatives can be held responsible for their actions. In my opinion, the merger of AFC with APNU reduces that element. Instead of three polices, now there are only two. 

This is how AFC will argue it on the Corentyne:

When you think it would be the PNC that will destroy sugar out of political spite, it is the PPP Jagdeoite that destroyed sugar.  (It is important to distinguish between PPP Jaganite and PPP Jagdeoite. Help people understand that the PPP Jagdeoite of today is not the PPP Jaganite of 1992.The PPP Jagdeoite is a parasitic alliance of the PPP govt and its new bourgeoisie friends. At the last Congress, the Jaganites lost; the Jagdeoites control. Jagdeo bought out everyone when he had the spoils to share).

Tell them that even the Jagan's children and Ram Karran's children - the 2 leading founders of the Party no longer support the PPP of today.

Tell them that the only people who benefitted from the Skeldon factory is Jagdeo and his friends.  Jagdeo promised that he would personally make sure the factory works well.  After several additional contracts with people from different countries, the factory is still not fixed and need large subsidies every year.  The PPP Jagdeoite killed sugar.

This week rice farmers in Black Bush were burning tires to draw attention to the government not policing the millers to pay people on time.  In many areas there are problems with the trenches not being dug.

Tell them the water in the taps are red and you can't drink or even wash clothes; water is only good for flushing toilets.

Tell them the PPP Jagdeoite did not build canning factories to create jobs in the rural areas.  They were willing to risk everything for a hotel which is a service industry, not a producer of outputs.

Tell them that although their PPP jadeite was in control of the Govt, many Indian businessmen were killed and people are being robbed, and the PPP did not offer protection or solve the crime problem.

So you get the trend.

You have to be a glutton for punishment, to keep voting for the PPP Jagdeoite.

I like that!

i hope you and kwame have a remote island to go to after the election

Then follow it up with "so Comrades, you must vote PNC"

See how well that goes down.

It is simply human nature that people think twice to embrace changes.  The newly formed 'APNU-AFC' will definitely come under a lot of scrutiny by voters. I wish them luck.

The numbers will not remain state secret for long. If they aren't leaked before May 11, President Granger will release them ASAP.