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R

Dear Editor,

Some are behaving as if the victory for the APNU-AFC coalition is a foregone conclusion. I am not so convinced. There are burning questions, mostly from a statistical slant that have not been answered. The most critical question is whether the formation of this coalition and the PPP’s message to Indians on the coalition will trigger racial voting among Indians. This is because at possibly around 300,000 (based on my hypothesis from statistical changes in two more recent censuses), they are by far the largest ethnic group and are approximately 35% larger than the next biggest ethnic group, Africans, who may possibly number approximately 223,000. The African and Indian populations are mature populations as evidenced by their decline and stagnation. Their voting age populations are going to be almost identical. They are likely registered at the same rate for the 2015 polls, particularly given the bloated size of the present Offical List of Electors. So, that 35% advantage holds in the election.

If we put the voting age populations at 70% of the wider African and Indian populations, there are roughly 54,000 more Indian voters than African voters. That is a massive numerical and statistical advantage. The other part of the problem is that the Mixed and Amerindian populations (crossover voters) are not going to increase their participation in 2015. Much worse, I believe 2015 could see a further decline in Mixed and Amerindian electoral participation in 2015 due to the egregious lack of Amerindian and Mixed leaders in the forefront of the PPP and the coalition slates, and the AFC likely loss of vital crossover voters who are dismayed with its loss of neutrality and autonomy. What this means is that the coalition is unlikely to get any help from crossover voters in bridging that 35% gap and in fact, the coalition could lose some of these voters who are primarily AFC crossover voters.

The PPP is also unlikely to get any help from crossover voters in 2015 and like the coalition may experience a decline in support from crossover voters. The problem for the coalition is that the coalition depends on crossover voters to a higher degree than the PPP and the coalition has no numerically dominant base to turn to, to try and increase its vote count.

This is why the coalition’s appeal to the Indian voters becomes downright crucial and is really the heart and soul of this election. That appeal has to be strong enough to attract a vital segment of Indian voters to vote for the coalition and/or assuage Indian voters that Indian ethnic security is not threatened by the coalition which in turn would assure a vital segment of Indian voters so that they do not vote at all. Is this coalition as constructed capable of overcoming the Indian ethnic fear, which will be fanned to its utmost by the PPP with its stronger election machinery in the bottom houses of this country? Most definitely not.

The lack of a rotating presidency with Nagamootoo getting the presidency even for 1.5 or 2 years is a catastrophic coalition blunder that makes it easier for the PPP to stir up Indian ethnic fear about the PNC and the booting of the UF, etc. It matters not what so-called fail-safe mechanisms the AFC claims are in the Cummingsburg Accord, the bottom line is that every single Vice President position or grand concession can be erased by the President and the entire country knows that very well, because we are in election season due to the recent outrageous exercise of presidential powers. The PPP will be peddling this propaganda to its ambivalent constituents in more graphic racial terms, and in the absence of a rotating presidency, the coalition has no answer to it.

At the end of the day, those who are well aware of the sickness of racial politics know that for the two major ethnic groups, they will prefer the worst government of their own ethnicity than a government of the other ethnicity. No matter how some PPP supporters are disgusted with the PPP, if there is ever the foreboding sense that the coalition could land power and the ultimate power of the presidency could land in the hands of the PNCR-APNU, they will come out and vote PPP and still cuss out Freedom House afterwards. It is the tragic truth that the coalition has not confronted. Moses Nagamootoo’s success in 2011 was not built on these stark all-or-nothing terms that could be propagated by Freedom House in 2015.

With Mixed and Amerindian participation rates set to likely decline even further in 2015, this is already an African v Indian voting contest. The PPP has the advantage in resources (use of public resources included) and outreach. The basic message is that if the coalition wins, the PNCR (now APNU) gets the presidency. That alone could be dynamite against the coalition. The entire Cummingsburg Accord is a joke as constituted because it offers nothing to relieve the immense numerical odds stacked against the coalition on election day. It gives the corrupt PPP at its lowest support point an escape route to win power again, not on acceptance but on fear. Even if the AFC got the presidency for one year initially, it would have lessened the anxieties of the Indian voting constituency, provided an opening to the coalition and weakened the potential of the PPP’s propaganda.

The other angle that is troubling with the Cummingsburg Accord is the recall legislation, which could see AFC or APNU MPs being recalled by the Representative of the List. Now, some will argue that the PPP did intensify the racial campaigning in 2011 but still lost the majority. Indeed, that was the case, but the stakes were very different. This is a bald win or lose scenario. There is no plurality or minority government. If the PPP performs as it did in 2011, it will surrender the government and presidency. That powerful distinction will resonate with supporters. The PNCR (APNU) has never won more than 165,000 votes, even with a 90% turnout and 408,000 voters voting. In the post-2006 electoral landscape marred by massive non-participation and lower turnout, APNU may have hit its pinnacle in 2011. The PPP has lost votes in every election since 2001. Will it continue this trend in 2015? Likely not given the all-or-nothing dynamic to the 2015 election. If the PPP manages to hold its 166,000 votes in 2015 and APNU delivers 140,000, can the AFC deliver 27,000 votes to overcome the PPP? That will depend on whether the AFC can hold onto its crossover and Indian voters. No matter how corrupt the PPP is, the numbers favour the PPP in a two-horse race. The coalition still has time to fix this debacle or the AFC or APNU should pull out of the deal. APNU and the AFC will not survive if the PPP wins a majority again.

 Yours faithfully,

M Maxwell

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FM Former Member

I will be interested in the response to Maxwell from the likes of Redux, Mitwah, HM_Redux, Stormborn, and Jalil.

 

Maxwell is a die hard AFC supporter and is very vocal on politics in Guyana, and I assume is much connected to the contemporary political environment.

FM
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FM Former Member
Originally Posted by randolph:

Dear Editor,

Some are behaving as if the victory for the APNU-AFC coalition is a foregone conclusion. I am not so convinced. There are burning questions, mostly from a statistical slant that have not been answered. The most critical question is whether the formation of this coalition and the PPP’s message to Indians on the coalition will trigger racial voting among Indians. This is because at possibly around 300,000 (based on my hypothesis from statistical changes in two more recent censuses), they are by far the largest ethnic group and are approximately 35% larger than the next biggest ethnic group, Africans, who may possibly number approximately 223,000. The African and Indian populations are mature populations as evidenced by their decline and stagnation. Their voting age populations are going to be almost identical. They are likely registered at the same rate for the 2015 polls, particularly given the bloated size of the present Offical List of Electors. So, that 35% advantage holds in the election.

If we put the voting age populations at 70% of the wider African and Indian populations, there are roughly 54,000 more Indian voters than African voters. That is a massive numerical and statistical advantage. The other part of the problem is that the Mixed and Amerindian populations (crossover voters) are not going to increase their participation in 2015. Much worse, I believe 2015 could see a further decline in Mixed and Amerindian electoral participation in 2015 due to the egregious lack of Amerindian and Mixed leaders in the forefront of the PPP and the coalition slates, and the AFC likely loss of vital crossover voters who are dismayed with its loss of neutrality and autonomy. What this means is that the coalition is unlikely to get any help from crossover voters in bridging that 35% gap and in fact, the coalition could lose some of these voters who are primarily AFC crossover voters.

The PPP is also unlikely to get any help from crossover voters in 2015 and like the coalition may experience a decline in support from crossover voters. The problem for the coalition is that the coalition depends on crossover voters to a higher degree than the PPP and the coalition has no numerically dominant base to turn to, to try and increase its vote count.

This is why the coalition’s appeal to the Indian voters becomes downright crucial and is really the heart and soul of this election. That appeal has to be strong enough to attract a vital segment of Indian voters to vote for the coalition and/or assuage Indian voters that Indian ethnic security is not threatened by the coalition which in turn would assure a vital segment of Indian voters so that they do not vote at all. Is this coalition as constructed capable of overcoming the Indian ethnic fear, which will be fanned to its utmost by the PPP with its stronger election machinery in the bottom houses of this country? Most definitely not.

The lack of a rotating presidency with Nagamootoo getting the presidency even for 1.5 or 2 years is a catastrophic coalition blunder that makes it easier for the PPP to stir up Indian ethnic fear about the PNC and the booting of the UF, etc. It matters not what so-called fail-safe mechanisms the AFC claims are in the Cummingsburg Accord, the bottom line is that every single Vice President position or grand concession can be erased by the President and the entire country knows that very well, because we are in election season due to the recent outrageous exercise of presidential powers. The PPP will be peddling this propaganda to its ambivalent constituents in more graphic racial terms, and in the absence of a rotating presidency, the coalition has no answer to it.

At the end of the day, those who are well aware of the sickness of racial politics know that for the two major ethnic groups, they will prefer the worst government of their own ethnicity than a government of the other ethnicity. No matter how some PPP supporters are disgusted with the PPP, if there is ever the foreboding sense that the coalition could land power and the ultimate power of the presidency could land in the hands of the PNCR-APNU, they will come out and vote PPP and still cuss out Freedom House afterwards. It is the tragic truth that the coalition has not confronted. Moses Nagamootoo’s success in 2011 was not built on these stark all-or-nothing terms that could be propagated by Freedom House in 2015.

With Mixed and Amerindian participation rates set to likely decline even further in 2015, this is already an African v Indian voting contest. The PPP has the advantage in resources (use of public resources included) and outreach. The basic message is that if the coalition wins, the PNCR (now APNU) gets the presidency. That alone could be dynamite against the coalition. The entire Cummingsburg Accord is a joke as constituted because it offers nothing to relieve the immense numerical odds stacked against the coalition on election day. It gives the corrupt PPP at its lowest support point an escape route to win power again, not on acceptance but on fear. Even if the AFC got the presidency for one year initially, it would have lessened the anxieties of the Indian voting constituency, provided an opening to the coalition and weakened the potential of the PPP’s propaganda.

The other angle that is troubling with the Cummingsburg Accord is the recall legislation, which could see AFC or APNU MPs being recalled by the Representative of the List. Now, some will argue that the PPP did intensify the racial campaigning in 2011 but still lost the majority. Indeed, that was the case, but the stakes were very different. This is a bald win or lose scenario. There is no plurality or minority government. If the PPP performs as it did in 2011, it will surrender the government and presidency. That powerful distinction will resonate with supporters. The PNCR (APNU) has never won more than 165,000 votes, even with a 90% turnout and 408,000 voters voting. In the post-2006 electoral landscape marred by massive non-participation and lower turnout, APNU may have hit its pinnacle in 2011. The PPP has lost votes in every election since 2001. Will it continue this trend in 2015? Likely not given the all-or-nothing dynamic to the 2015 election. If the PPP manages to hold its 166,000 votes in 2015 and APNU delivers 140,000, can the AFC deliver 27,000 votes to overcome the PPP? That will depend on whether the AFC can hold onto its crossover and Indian voters. No matter how corrupt the PPP is, the numbers favour the PPP in a two-horse race. The coalition still has time to fix this debacle or the AFC or APNU should pull out of the deal. APNU and the AFC will not survive if the PPP wins a majority again.

 Yours faithfully,

M Maxwell

 

AFC/PNC cork duck.

 

The PPP is headed to a 54 Percent majority. AFC handed the PPP a majority by merging with the PNC.

 

What was the PNC thinking when they took in the AFC stray dogs ?

 

Let the PPP campaign being and warm up the Tassa drums folks, we will have a massive PPP victory celebration.

FM
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FM Former Member

"No matter how corrupt the PPP is, the numbers favour the PPP in a two-horse race. The coalition still has time to fix this debacle or the AFC or APNU should pull out of the deal. APNU and the AFC will not survive if the PPP wins a majority again."

 

The main reason Shaitam and I were having a field day two week ago. The coalition was a bad idea although even before it, the AFC had already lost my interest as it must have lost others including TK, GR, etc.

FM
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FM Former Member
Originally Posted by TK:

This letter by Maxwell has many problematic assumptions. I would have to write a letter.

And what is problematic?

 

1, The fact that Africans and Indians, groups older on average than Amerindians, and definitely mixed voters, are over represented among voters?  Meaning that Indians will significantly outnumber Africans.

 

2.  The fact that many Indians are being panicked by the PPP about the prospects of PNC dominance of the coalition, and the fact that the president retains lots of power within this agreement?

 

 

It doesn't appear as if the AFC is explaining this coalition very well.

FM
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FM Former Member
Originally Posted by caribny:
Originally Posted by TK:

This letter by Maxwell has many problematic assumptions. I would have to write a letter.

And what is problematic?

 

1, The fact that Africans and Indians, groups older on average than Amerindians, and definitely mixed voters, are over represented among voters?  Meaning that Indians will significantly outnumber Africans.

 

2.  The fact that many Indians are being panicked by the PPP about the prospects of PNC dominance of the coalition, and the fact that the president retains lots of power within this agreement?

 

 

It doesn't appear as if the AFC is explaining this coalition very well.

I have a real poll. You nor Maxwell don't. Now I am well aware of the risks of The Alliance. I am aware 85% will vote along racial lines for fears. Let's not beat up dat poor dead harse. In spite of the risks, I think those two decent men at the top of the ticket could win. Governing...well...

FM
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FM Former Member
Originally Posted by ksazma:

"No matter how corrupt the PPP is, the numbers favour the PPP in a two-horse race. The coalition still has time to fix this debacle or the AFC or APNU should pull out of the deal. APNU and the AFC will not survive if the PPP wins a majority again."

 

The main reason Shaitam and I were having a field day two week ago. The coalition was a bad idea although even before it, the AFC had already lost my interest as it must have lost others including TK, GR, etc.

 

I always enjoy Guyanese intellectuals who pontificate over our electorate like they're some savvy canecutters and bauxite workers sitting beneath their coconut palms pondering the nature of their Hobbesian socio-political condition at the hands of the forces of history.

 

I always stick to the tried and true formulation that they vote hair texture

FM
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FM Former Member

Very funny. Everyone is arguing with tainted data when the PPP knows the real one and are hiding it from us. The Census was done three years ago!

 

Every time I thing of the PPP a sense of the completely obscene comes over me. How can a group be so meticulous with crookedness and corruption yet fail so horribly at simple things!

FM
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FM Former Member
Originally Posted by TK:
 

I have a real poll. You nor Maxwell don't. Now I am well aware of the risks of The Alliance. I am aware 85% will vote along racial lines for fears. Let's not beat up dat poor dead harse. In spite of the risks, I think those two decent men at the top of the ticket could win. Governing...well...

TK AFC polls are even more ridiculous than the PPPs.  In 2006 and 2011 you all predicted 30%+.  In 2011 your poll showed that you were ahead of APNU.

 

We know the crushing defeat which the AFC endured in both elections.  APNU got almost 4X the AFC votes.

 

Did you all suddenly learn how to take polls? Did your polls indicate that in 2011 the AFC would lose almost 30% of their votes in Regions 4 and 10, and but for the 10k votes added in Regions 5 and 6, would have ended up in a weaker position than they were in 2006?

 

As to the PNC.  We don't need a poll to predict what they will get.  It will be the same 40% which they have obtained in every election but for 2006 when many stayed home, enraged by Corbin.

 

So I will suggest that you deconstruct Maxwell's arguments and not peddle a poll when polls in Guyana are known to be very unreliable.

 

Racial insecurity is what defines 90% of the votes.  If you think that this is a dead horse you need to explain this fact.

 

And like Maxwell, I suggest that you don't count the PPP Nagamootoo votes from 3 years ago, unless you can prove that you still have them.  Does the AFC have a plan if they lose 50% of those votes (enough to give the PPP victory)?  You ought to know that APNU will not help you, unless they sharply increase turn out in their strongholds.

 

The AFC took a gamble with the MONC, and another with the coalition.  They have much to prove, and if the PPP wins, much to answer for.

FM
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FM Former Member
Originally Posted by caribny:
Originally Posted by TK:
 

I have a real poll. You nor Maxwell don't. Now I am well aware of the risks of The Alliance. I am aware 85% will vote along racial lines for fears. Let's not beat up dat poor dead harse. In spite of the risks, I think those two decent men at the top of the ticket could win. Governing...well...

TK AFC polls are even more ridiculous than the PPPs.  In 2006 and 2011 you all predicted 30%+.  In 2011 your poll showed that you were ahead of APNU.

 

We know the crushing defeat which the AFC endured in both elections.  APNU got almost 4X the AFC votes.

 

Did you all suddenly learn how to take polls? Did your polls indicate that the AFC would lose 30% of their votes in Regions 4 and 10, and but for the 10k votes added in Regions 5 and 6, would have ended up in a weaker position than they were in 2006?

 

As to the PNC.  We don't need a poll to predict what they will get.  It will be the same 40% which they have obtained in every election but for 2006 when many stayed home, enraged by Corbin.

 

So I will suggest that you deconstruct Maxwell's arguments and not peddle a poll when polls in Guyana are known to be very unreliable.

 

Racial insecurity is what defines 90% of the votes.  If you think that this is a dead horse you need to explain this fact.

 

And like Maxwell, I suggest that you don't count the PPP Nagamootoo votes from 3 years ago, unless you can prove that you still have them.  Does the AFC have a plan if they lose 50% of those votes (enough to give the PPP victory)?  You ought to know that APNU will not help you, unless they sharply increase turn out in their strongholds.

Maxwell is speculating as much as you are and I have in the past. What I am looking at is no AFC, PNC or Bisram poll.

FM
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FM Former Member
Originally Posted by Stormborn:

Very funny. Everyone is arguing with tainted data when the PPP knows the real one and are hiding it from us. The Census was done three years ago!

 

Every time I thing of the PPP a sense of the completely obscene comes over me. How can a group be so meticulous with crookedness and corruption yet fail so horribly at simple things!

Do you think that the ethnic composition of the population (which is different from the ethnic population of the voters, for reasons that I have discussed) has changed that much in a mere 3 years?

 

In 2011 the PPP lost by a scant 5k votes.  Either they are a multi-racial party, or more likely, the Indian vote, and the % of Indians who vote race, is much larger than you wish to believe.

 

1. Is APNU registering voters in its strongholds and getting them out to vote?  In 2011 in Region 10 30% of those registered didn't vote, and many weren't even registered.  Some suggest only 60% of the voting age population actually voted.  Region 10 alone can deliver enough votes if 50% of the PPP Nagamootoo vote from 2011 flees back to the PPP.

 

2.  Does the AFC have a plan B if they lose 50% the PPP Nagamootoo votes which they obtained?

 

3. Is the AFC working hard to get rice farmer votes, or just hoping that they will get them merely because some of the leadership urged them to support the coalition?

 

No point engaging in ideological fantasies today and screaming and wailing on May 15th, if after days of vote counting, the PPP is announced the winner.

FM
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FM Former Member
Originally Posted by TK:
 

Maxwell is speculating as much as you are and I have in the past. What I am looking at is no AFC, PNC or Bisram poll.

Maxwell is making comments that are being made by many in Guyana.  You have a mysterious poll.

 

TK we all know that when parties poll, they design the sample to deliver the results which favor them.

 

In a nation where there isn't a tradition of reliable polling if all you can do is to babble about a poll, you are engaging in speculation too.

 

Unless you tell me that you know who will actually show up at the polling stations on May 11.  In what is likely to be a turn out no better than the previous 2 elections (337k voting in 2006 and 342k voting in 2011) obviously victory doesn't go to the most popular.  It goes to the party which gets their people to the polls.

 

Does the AFC have a plan to get their folks out to the polls?

FM
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FM Former Member

TK please tell me that you seriously believe that large numbers of Indians are going to vote for a black man. 

 

That will be such a radical change in Guyana because in our 60 years of electoral politics Indians have never voted for a black man as the head of the ticket.

FM
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FM Former Member

IMPORTANT NOTE ON VOTER REGISTRATION IN GUYANA:

 

It is important to note that Guyana employs a peculiar system of registering voters. They appear to automatically register everyone possibly eligible.

 

People are normally registered at the age of 14 to the National Register of Registrants (whereby they obtain their National ID Card) which then becomes a Database and from this Database the Preliminary Voter List is extracted of those who are or will be over 18 by the statutory cut off date for the upcoming election and that List then goes through claims and objections to become the Official List of Electors to weed out only those who can be proven to be dead. (The law forbids striking nonresidents from the rolls.)

 

So basically, it can be safely assumed that Guyana's national voter registration rate should be in the 95 to 100% range because practically every Guyanese is registered on the National Register of Registrants except those people who fall through the cracks in the extreme hinterlands and those in really broken homes.

 

My point....voter registration is not a problem in Guyana. The Coalition or the PPP do not have much wiggle room as far as adding new voters to the rolls to expand the existing electorate. It's a matter of turnout.

 

 

FM
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FM Former Member
Originally Posted by caribny:
Originally Posted by TK:
 

Maxwell is speculating as much as you are and I have in the past. What I am looking at is no AFC, PNC or Bisram poll.

Maxwell is making comments that are being made by many in Guyana.  You have a mysterious poll.

 

TK we all know that when parties poll, they design the sample to deliver the results which favor them.

 

In a nation where there isn't a tradition of reliable polling if all you can do is to babble about a poll, you are engaging in speculation too.

 

Unless you tell me that you know who will actually show up at the polling stations on May 11.  In what is likely to be a turn out no better than the previous 2 elections (337k voting in 2006 and 342k voting in 2011) obviously victory doesn't go to the most popular.  It goes to the party which gets their people to the polls.

 

Does the AFC have a plan to get their folks out to the polls?

 

Maxwell comments are well known...at least to me. I don't know what the AFC has planned. I am the one who wrote in Stabroek News columns that the ethnic security dilemmas can be expressed as a prisoners' dilemma underpinned by economic uncertainty. I am aware of the "don't split the votes" strategy...the Babu Jaan thing and all that. I am aware of "black man bad...Indian good" and so on. So Maxwell is not saying anything new. The risks are known...but with Burnham's constitution in place I don't see a better alternative than The Alliance. The PPP will rule as they do even if they win 45%. The PPP is not a civilized party. 

FM
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FM Former Member
Originally Posted by caribny:

TK please tell me that you seriously believe that large numbers of Indians are going to vote for a black man. 

 

That will be such a radical change in Guyana because in our 60 years of electoral politics Indians have never voted for a black man as the head of the ticket.

 

You asked me that question before. I gave an answer. You never responded. Anyhow, we only need 6 percentage points of Indians to vote for The Alliance.

FM
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FM Former Member
Originally Posted by TK:
. I am aware of "black man bad...Indian good" and so on. So Maxwell is not saying anything new.  

And yet you claim that those who raise this are beating  DEAD horse.

 

TK in the 60s years that Guyanese have being voters Indians have NEVER supported a party headed by a black man.  Having been raised by this why are you so sure that victory for the APNU AFC is inevitable?

 

Has Nagamootoo being going out into rice areas and being holding large meetings where he outlines his plans for the rice industry should he win?

 

Or he thinks that because the PPP has made a mess of that industry that they will forget the milk of "black man baad" that has poured from the breasts of their mothers for THREE generations!

 

What sentiment do you think wins out when a rural Indian goes to cast his vote. Rational thinking that suggests that the PPP ought to be dumped because of their arrogant corruption, or irrational fear that Granger might pull a Burnham and toss Nagamootoo out just as D'Aguiar was tossed out.

FM
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FM Former Member
Originally Posted by caribny:
Originally Posted by TK:
. I am aware of "black man bad...Indian good" and so on. So Maxwell is not saying anything new.  

And yet you claim that those who raise this are beating  DEAD horse.

 

TK in the 60s years that Guyanese have being voter Indians have NEVER supported a party headed by a black man.  Having been raised by this why are you so sure that victory for the APNU AFC is inevitable.

 

Has Nagamootoo being going out into rice areas and being holding large meetings where he outlines his plans for the rice industry should he win?

 

Or he thinks that because the PPP has made a mess of that industry that they will forget the milk of "black man baad" that has poured from the breasts of their mothers for THREE generations!

Blacks have also NEVER supported an Indian party either, no? What am I missing here? All you need is 6 to 10% both sides to swing. You might never swing. But I am part of the 6 to 10%.

FM
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FM Former Member
Originally Posted by TK:
Originally Posted by caribny:

TK please tell me that you seriously believe that large numbers of Indians are going to vote for a black man. 

 

That will be such a radical change in Guyana because in our 60 years of electoral politics Indians have never voted for a black man as the head of the ticket.

 

You asked me that question before. I gave an answer. You never responded. Anyhow, we only need 6 percentage points of Indians to vote for The Alliance.

The only answer I saw was your claim that you have a poll.

 

If defeating the PPP was so easy how come you all barely did it last time?

 

Given that the 10k voters who supported Nagamootoo how do you know that they will vote for Granger as president this time?

 

FM
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FM Former Member
Originally Posted by caribny:
Originally Posted by TK:
Originally Posted by caribny:

TK please tell me that you seriously believe that large numbers of Indians are going to vote for a black man. 

 

That will be such a radical change in Guyana because in our 60 years of electoral politics Indians have never voted for a black man as the head of the ticket.

 

You asked me that question before. I gave an answer. You never responded. Anyhow, we only need 6 percentage points of Indians to vote for The Alliance.

The only answer I saw was your claim that you have a poll.

 

If defeating the PPP was so easy how come you all barely did it last time?

 

No you conveniently missed my answer of about a month ago. 

FM
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FM Former Member
Originally Posted by TK:
for THREE generations!

Blacks have also NEVER supported an Indian party either, no? What am I missing here? All you need is 6 to 10% both sides to swing. You might never swing. But I am part of the 6 to 10%.

Blacks voted for a party led by Cheddi Jagan in 1953.  Did you not know this?

 

Indians have never voted for ANY party led by an African.

 

I suggest that you tell your buddies to stop playing mathematical games with stats in back rooms and go out to the ghettoes of G/town, the festering villages like Buxton, the economic wasteland of Linden, the suicide capital of Black Bush Polder, and the restive rice lands of West Coast Demerara, and into the isolated and neglected regions of the NWD and the Rupununi, and the crime infested gold fields of the Mazaruni and Bartica areas,  and explain their case.

 

 

Granger made reference to the victory by the UNITY party in St Kitts.

 

EVERY NIGHT in EVERY Village there were meetings where THOUSANDS showed up, in an island with 1/20 of Guyana's population. 

 

Not press conference in air conditioned rooms in Basseterre.

 

APNU AFC is NOT going to win unless they whip up enthusiasm.  You know full well that voter buying, voter cheating and other trickery will deliver a fake 5% of the ballots to the PPP, so APNU AFC will need 55% to win.  This will be a nasty election by a dangerous animal who fears that he will be killed if caught, so will resort to all sorts of tactics to ensure that they aren't.

 

Besides if all the AFC does is deliver 6% of the votes, why then would they deserve 40% of cabinet and parliament?  How long do you think that grass roots PNC members will tolerate that?

FM
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FM Former Member
Originally Posted by TK:
 

No you conveniently missed my answer of about a month ago. 

Cannot remember.  Repeat it. 

 

Remember that the PPP does get non Indian votes too. Maybe as many as 10% of the African/mixed vote, and 60% of the Amerindian vote.

 

Did you build that into your calculations?  Did you build into your calculations that large numbers of young grass roots Africans have no interest in voting, and they don't trust Granger? Because when the police are harassing them he is no where around!  Turn out in Region 10 is relatively low, indicative I suspect of similar low turn put in G/town.

FM
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FM Former Member
Originally Posted by caribny:
Originally Posted by TK:
for THREE generations!

Blacks have also NEVER supported an Indian party either, no? What am I missing here? All you need is 6 to 10% both sides to swing. You might never swing. But I am part of the 6 to 10%.

Blacks voted for a party led by Cheddi Jagan in 1953.  Did you not know this?

 

Indians have never voted for ANY party led by an African.

 

I suggest that you tell your buddies to stop playing mathematical games with stats in back rooms and go out to the ghettoes of G/town, the festering villages like Buxton, the economic wasteland of Linden, the suicide capital of Black Bush Polder, and the restive rice lands of West Coast Demerara, and into the isolated and neglected regions of the NWD and the Rupununi, and the crime infested gold fields of the Mazaruni and Bartica areas,  and explain their case.

 

 

Granger made reference to the victory by the UNITY party in St Kitts.

 

EVERY NIGHT in EVERY Village there were meetings where THOUSANDS showed up, in an island with 1/20 of Guyana's population. 

 

Not press conference in air conditioned rooms in Basseterre.

 

APNU AFC is NOT going to win unless the whip up enthusiasm.

 

Besides if all the AFC does is deliver 6% of the votes, why then would they deserve 40% of cabinet and parliament?  How long do you think that grass roots PNC members will tolerate that?

 

In your haste to demonize the Indian you are slipping. The PPP in 1953 was a united party with serious African heavyweights like Burnham, King and others. The constitution of 1953 was not the 1980 constitution. The unity you saw in 1953 was just a superficial unity. The country was divided as early as 1838 when the Indians were brought in to compete in the labor market with the free Africans. Now as soon as the PPP was split the votes were divided. You know the fate of the great WPA in 1992, no? You also know the fate of the mighty Hammie green GGG in 1997, no?

 

Look at it this way. If the AFC don't deliver the 6 percentage points of Indians, then the grassroots of Africans will have to put up with another PPP govt. The last time I checked the AFC will be bringing a strong group of Afros to The Alliance. Rapheal, Hughes, etc. Is that wrong? You need to understand to reason on the margin as they do in neo-classical economics. That 6 percentage points of Indo votes has a very high marginal return. Otherwise...it's 5 more years of PPP...

FM
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FM Former Member
Originally Posted by TK:
 

 

In your haste to demonize the Indian you are slipping. The PPP in 1953 was a united party with serious African heavyweights like Burnham, King and others. The constitution of 1953 was not the 1980 constitution. The unity you saw in 1953 was just a superficial unity. The country was divided as early as 1838 when the Indians were brought in to compete in the labor market with the free Africans. Now as soon as the PPP was split the votes were divided. You know the fate of the great WPA in 1992, no? You also know the fate of the mighty Hammie green GGG in 1997, no?

 

Look at it this way. If the AFC don't deliver the 6 percentage points of Indians, then the grassroots of Africans will have to put up with another PPP govt. The last time I checked the AFC will be bringing a strong group of Afros to The Alliance. Rapheal, Hughes, etc. Is that wrong? You need to understand to reason on the margin as they do in neo-classical economics. That 6 percentage points of Indo votes has a very high marginal return. Otherwise...it's 5 more years of PPP...

FACT.  The PPP was headed by an INDIAN in 1953.  FACT.  This didn't prevent blacks voting for this party.  FACT.  We have never seen any evidence that Indians in Guyana will vote for a party led by a black man. 

 

FACT based on the current lack of campaigning by APNU AFC and the fact that they behave as if they will be anointed by God, the PPP will win. FACT.  Its isn't just blacks who will suffer.  I wouldn't want to be a rice farmer at a time when Venezuela is breathing fire on Guyana.

 

The only way that an incumbent gov't loses, with all the advantages that every one knows that it has, is when the opposition is aggressive and shrewd and covers all of its bases.

 

We have yet to see this from the coalition, who are standing passively (as they have done over the past 3 years) and are allowing the PPP to set the agenda.  A few exAFC officials run to the PPP and scream "AFC corrupt". AFC lets them do so with no response!  So Guyanese are left to think that the AFC is as corrupt as the PPP is, and the PNC was.

 

FACT.  To deliver 3% of the votes (6% of the Indian vote) and yet get 40% of the seats isn't sustainable.  How long will PNC members tolerate delivering over 90% of the votes and yet getting only 60% of the positions?

 

FACT.  The AFC doesn't get any more black votes than does the PPP, so why do you think that the majority of the blacks will care about them?  They didn't vote for Trotman in 2011.

 

FACT.  If the AFC wishes to survive they will have to do better than just delivering 3% of the overall vote.

 

FACT.  You all better unleash hungry people like Solomon fast because Granger isn't going to get votes.  In fact last time there were allegations that it was Roopnarine who generated excitement in PNC strongholds (an Indian and yet blacks listened to him).  He was dumped, so will be less visible.

FM
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FM Former Member

FACT: Having spoken to Indian eyewitnesses of the 1953 election (in Berbice anyway), they tell the same story. They voted apaan jaat proudly. They voted for Indian rule of British Guiana. They didn't vote for some racial utopia. They voted for Cheddi to be the official Maharaja of the Indo tribe. And they certainly didn't vote out of some great affinity for Burnham. They didn't even know who the hell that was because he wasn't that important to bother knowing. My grandfather even recalls Indians openly taunting Blacks that they were now subject to Indian rule (I've cleaned it up here as the quotes are just too disturbingly racist to write) on the day of the victory processions. In 1953!

FM
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FM Former Member
Originally Posted by Shaitaan:

FACT: Having spoken to Indian eyewitnesses of the 1953 election (in Berbice anyway), they tell the same story. They voted apaan jaat proudly. They voted for Indian rule of British Guiana. They didn't vote for some racial utopia. They voted for Cheddi to be the official Maharaja of the Indo tribe. And they certainly didn't vote out of some great affinity for Burnham. They didn't even know who the hell that was because he wasn't that important to bother knowing. My grandfather even recalls Indians openly taunting Blacks that they were now subject to Indian rule (I've cleaned it up here as the quotes are just too disturbingly racist to write) on the day of the victory processions. In 1953!

TK says that this is beating dead horses and hopes that 6% Indian votes is enough.

 

Well at least 5% of Indians reportedly voted PNC in all the elections where the PNC won only 40%.  So I doubt such a skimpy % is a guarantee of a PPP loss.

 

Already even KN has lots of letters written by black soup lickers screaming that the PPP is the best thing ever.  There are many more where they come from.  As an ex PNC thug claimed 10 years ago PPP put milk in the tea, hence the name "milk drinker".

FM
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FM Former Member
Originally Posted by caribny:
Originally Posted by TK:
 

 

In your haste to demonize the Indian you are slipping. The PPP in 1953 was a united party with serious African heavyweights like Burnham, King and others. The constitution of 1953 was not the 1980 constitution. The unity you saw in 1953 was just a superficial unity. The country was divided as early as 1838 when the Indians were brought in to compete in the labor market with the free Africans. Now as soon as the PPP was split the votes were divided. You know the fate of the great WPA in 1992, no? You also know the fate of the mighty Hammie green GGG in 1997, no?

 

Look at it this way. If the AFC don't deliver the 6 percentage points of Indians, then the grassroots of Africans will have to put up with another PPP govt. The last time I checked the AFC will be bringing a strong group of Afros to The Alliance. Rapheal, Hughes, etc. Is that wrong? You need to understand to reason on the margin as they do in neo-classical economics. That 6 percentage points of Indo votes has a very high marginal return. Otherwise...it's 5 more years of PPP...

FACT.  The PPP was headed by an INDIAN in 1953.  FACT.  This didn't prevent blacks voting for this party.  FACT.  We have never seen any evidence that Indians in Guyana will vote for a party led by a black man. 

 

FACT based on the current lack of campaigning by APNU AFC and the fact that they behave as if they will be anointed by God, the PPP will win. FACT.  Its isn't just blacks who will suffer.  I wouldn't want to be a rice farmer at a time when Venezuela is breathing fire on Guyana.

 

The only way that an incumbent gov't loses, with all the advantages that every one knows that it has, is when the opposition is aggressive and shrewd and covers all of its bases.

 

We have yet to see this from the coalition, who are standing passively (as they have done over the past 3 years) and are allowing the PPP to set the agenda.  A few exAFC officials run to the PPP and scream "AFC corrupt". AFC lets them do so with no response!  So Guyanese are left to think that the AFC is as corrupt as the PPP is, and the PNC was.

 

FACT.  To deliver 3% of the votes (6% of the Indian vote) and yet get 40% of the seats isn't sustainable.  How long will PNC members tolerate delivering over 90% of the votes and yet getting only 60% of the positions?

 

FACT.  The AFC doesn't get any more black votes than does the PPP, so why do you think that the majority of the blacks will care about them?  They didn't vote for Trotman in 2011.

 

FACT.  If the AFC wishes to survive they will have to do better than just delivering 3% of the overall vote.

 

FACT.  You all better unleash hungry people like Solomon fast because Granger isn't going to get votes.  In fact last time there were allegations that it was Roopnarine who generated excitement in PNC strongholds (an Indian and yet blacks listened to him).  He was dumped, so will be less visible.

That they are your facts don't mean they are FACTS!

FM
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FM Former Member

Bottom line, is, despite TKs claims, if an Indian goes out of his way to win the trust of blacks, he will get their support.  Most blacks in 1953 knew full well that they were voting for Cheddi.

 

The opposite tends to happen only among that tiny group of Indo intellects like TK. Sadly most of them probably aren't even living in Guyana!

FM
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FM Former Member
Originally Posted by TK:
 

That they are your facts don't mean they are FACTS!

Yet apparently a great intellect like you cannot deconstruct my argument.

 

Do you really think that making lofty speeches at the Pegasus is impressing the folks living in Tiger Bay, a few yards away? Most who would be arrested should they attempt to step foot in that place! These folks who get treated worse than the blacks in Ferguson, and yet Granger isn't any where around when that happens, or when some rich man evicts them from land where they have lived for generations.

 

Don't you think that to might be time for you folks to stop counting those votes, and actually go out and EARN them?  Because rumor has it that Granger is seen by many of them as a boring old man who doesn't care a fig about poor people.

 

Yes I know they are Africans so you assume that you got 100% of the votes, ignoring the fact that if only 40% of them vote, its actually only 40%.

FM
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FM Former Member
Originally Posted by caribny:

Bottom line, is, despite TKs claims, if an Indian goes out of his way to win the trust of blacks, he will get their support.  Most blacks in 1953 knew full well that they were voting for Cheddi.

 

The opposite tends to happen only among that tiny group of Indo intellects like TK. Sadly most of them probably aren't even living in Guyana!

Do you have voter sentiments surveys from 1953 that say that Cheddi Jagan was the PRIMARY reason why Africans voted the united PPP? I am looking at a LAPOP survey on racial reference and voting habits in Guyana. You would be surprised. Don't be so certain of your speculations. Having said that APNU-AFC still has much to do.

FM
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FM Former Member
Originally Posted by caribny:
Originally Posted by Shaitaan:

FACT: Having spoken to Indian eyewitnesses of the 1953 election (in Berbice anyway), they tell the same story. They voted apaan jaat proudly. They voted for Indian rule of British Guiana. They didn't vote for some racial utopia. They voted for Cheddi to be the official Maharaja of the Indo tribe. And they certainly didn't vote out of some great affinity for Burnham. They didn't even know who the hell that was because he wasn't that important to bother knowing. My grandfather even recalls Indians openly taunting Blacks that they were now subject to Indian rule (I've cleaned it up here as the quotes are just too disturbingly racist to write) on the day of the victory processions. In 1953!

TK says that this is beating dead horses and hopes that 6% Indian votes is enough.

 

Well at least 5% of Indians reportedly voted PNC in all the elections where the PNC won only 40%.  So I doubt such a skimpy % is a guarantee of a PPP loss.

 

Already even KN has lots of letters written by black soup lickers screaming that the PPP is the best thing ever.  There are many more where they come from.  As an ex PNC thug claimed 10 years ago PPP put milk in the tea, hence the name "milk drinker".

 

My militant PYO founding member/gun smith of a grandfather actually says that the 1953 victory celebrations by the Indians left a deep impression on Blacks. It was an unabashed display of Indian triumphalism that he says "the Blacks took careful note of and bided their time." The split in 1957 didn't occur at the top. The seeds of it were sown from the grassroots on up. He actually traces Indian behavior in the aftermath of the 1953 victory as the beginning of our racial divisions electorally, not our moment our racial unity/utopia.

FM
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FM Former Member
Originally Posted by TK:
Originally Posted by caribny:

Bottom line, is, despite TKs claims, if an Indian goes out of his way to win the trust of blacks, he will get their support.  Most blacks in 1953 knew full well that they were voting for Cheddi.

 

The opposite tends to happen only among that tiny group of Indo intellects like TK. Sadly most of them probably aren't even living in Guyana!

Do you have voter sentiments surveys from 1953 that say that Cheddi Jagan was the PRIMARY reason why Africans voted the united PPP? I am looking at a LAPOP survey on racial reference and voting habits in Guyana. You would be surprised. Don't be so certain of your speculations. Having said that APNU-AFC still has much to do.

TK I assume that you know that there was a party that was founded by the League of Colored People.  I also assume that you know that they didn't get votes outside of the black and colored middle class who despised Burnham, even though he came out of their ranks.

 

So how come blacks voted for a party led by an Indian, when there was a black party right there for them to support?  And they knew that Cheddi was #1 and Burnham was #2.  APNU AFC will NOT get anything like the support from Indians in 2015, that the PPP got from blacks in 1953.

FM
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FM Former Member
Originally Posted by Shaitaan:
 

My militant PYO founding member/gun smith of a grandfather actually says that the 1953 victory celebrations by the Indians left a deep impression on Blacks. It was an unabashed display of Indian triumphalism that he says "the Blacks took careful note of and bided their time." The split in 1957 didn't occur at the top. The seeds of it were sown from the grassroots on up. He actually traces Indian behavior in the aftermath of the 1953 victory as the beginning of our racial divisions electorally, not our moment our racial unity/utopia.

This was further under scored in 1961 when a PPP victory led to drunk Indians driving through black villages screaming that they were going to send "dem ni99ers back to slavery".  

 

A black PPP female, who came out to celebrate (she liked Cheddi, as indeed did many rural blacks, who did NOT trust Burnham........note that King didn't immediately leave the PPP), was assaulted.

 

 

This led to the vicious reaction from blacks the following year.  FEAR!

 

I bet that black woman who voted PPP in 1961, voted PNC in 1964.

 

Face it different identity formations (Africans, mixed, Portuguese as creoles, and Indians as an Indian NATION) lead to different responses to the ethnicity of candidates. An Indian who goes to blacks and woos them might win their support.  NEVER has an African been as successful with Indians outside of the intellectual class.

 

TK can jump as he wishes but APNU AFC CANNOT take for granted that they will get an Indian vote beyond the normal 5% who vote PNC.

FM
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FM Former Member
Originally Posted by TK:
Originally Posted by caribny:
Originally Posted by TK:

This letter by Maxwell has many problematic assumptions. I would have to write a letter.

And what is problematic?

 

1, The fact that Africans and Indians, groups older on average than Amerindians, and definitely mixed voters, are over represented among voters?  Meaning that Indians will significantly outnumber Africans.

 

2.  The fact that many Indians are being panicked by the PPP about the prospects of PNC dominance of the coalition, and the fact that the president retains lots of power within this agreement?

 

 

It doesn't appear as if the AFC is explaining this coalition very well.

I have a real poll. You nor Maxwell don't. Now I am well aware of the risks of The Alliance. I am aware 85% will vote along racial lines for fears. Let's not beat up dat poor dead harse. In spite of the risks, I think those two decent men at the top of the ticket could win. Governing...well...

I agree with Tarron, you all do not get excited, the PPP will pull a respectable 48 Percent and it is all because of the race vote.  I say 80% of Guyana will vote race down the middle even if Jesus is to come down to earth and tell them to vote on issues.

 

Now that leaves the 20% who consider other issues and who have not made up their mind.

 

It is 20% whom the alliance has to target.

FM
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FM Former Member

The number DO NOT favour the PPP.  Sorry to buss your bubble.  Especially when that 20% see Guyana has som SHINE TEETH Ministers who using the poor people money to fix up their mash mouth.

 

FM
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FM Former Member

The opposition coalition on Wednesday officially launched

its campaign for the May 11, 2015 general elections,

pledging to end racially divisive politics

for the first time since the 1950s

and root out corruption, crime and bad governance.

 

Addressing a packed audience at the Pegasus Hotel,

Prime Ministerial candidate Moses Nagamootoo said that

after the 60 years Guyana was making

another giant step towards national reconciliation,

multi-ethnic and multi-party rule.

 

“It will be, as it has been,

a bumpy road to the Promised Land.

 

But we will not be daunted.

We will not be intimidated. 

 

We shall defeat

the monster of racism.

We shall overcome

the campaign of fear,”

he said to an audience that was made up of

largely urban Afro-Guyanese and

a smattering of mainly Indo-Guyanese professionals.

 

 

FM
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Welcome to the Original Guyanese Discussion Forums, first established in 1996. Here you can discuss, ask questions or generally debate anything related to politics, movies, music, health or just gyaff away your day/night here.

Please note while you do have free access to our Forums, the Political Forum will now be a Paid Membership Forum. What does this mean? To write in the Political Forum you must be a paying member. The fee is $25.00 US per year and is non refundable. Payment can be done through PayPal.
Membership is not automatically renewed and you can cancel anytime
We do have some rules, so please adhere to them.
$25.00 per 12 Months (plus tax if applicable)
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