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On second thoughts you will have a major cardiac event when you see how PPP support is declining since 1997. So in 1997 the PPP got 221k, 2001, 209k, 2006, 182k, and 2011 they won 165k.
Now how you can scream that the PPP isnt in decline beats me.
Carib:
There is no question that in every election since 1997 the PPP has seen a decline in the total number of votes it has received.
BUT LET'S LOOK AT THE PNC SINCE 1997.
1997: 161K
2001: 165K
2006: 114K
2011: 139K
QUESTION:
Hasn't the PNC also seen a decline in the total number of votes it has received ?
Of course, in 2001, the PNC received 4K more votes than it did in 1997. And let's say the 114K votes in 2006 was an anomaly. But check out the 2011 votes---it was 139K.
FACT:
Both the 2 major parties have seen declines in the total number of votes they have received since 1997.
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Listen carib. It is senseless to look at just the overall number of votes each party has gotten in each election.
IT IS THE PERCENTAGE OF THE OVERALL VOTES EACH PARTY RECEIVES THAT MATTERS.
* We know the PNC is a 40% party---the highest percentage of the votes they have ever received in a free and fair election was 42.3% in 1992.
BUT LET'S RETURN TO THE % THE PPP HAS GOTTEN SINCE 1992
53.5%---PPP in 1992
55.3%---PPP in 1997
53.0%---PPP in 2001
54.6%---PPP in 2006
48.6%---PPP in 2011
OBSERVATION:
* The % the PPP received went up from 1992 from 1997--53.5 to 55.3%
* The % the PPP received went down from 1997 to 2001
* The % the PPP received went up from 2001 to 2006
* The % the PPP received went down from 2006 to 2011
QUESTION:
You notice a trend their carib bai ?
Went up---went down---went up---went down
Do you care to guess what's next ?
What follows went down ?
That's right! Went up.hahaha
The % the PPP received in the next election will be higher than the 48.6% it received in 2011---99.99% chance it will be 50+%
Rev
PS. Don't argue numbers with the Rev again.hahahaha
cain: Keep up with the numbers Rev..
There is a 99.99% probability the PPP will get 50+% of the votes in the next election and regain the majority.
Rev
carib: Rev even you concede that in 2011 the PNC INCREASED its votes by 26k, this while the PPP continued to LOSE votes.
So why again do you insist that the PPP is guaranteed to win a majority of the votes? If the highly charismatic Jagdeo failed when he was actively involved in campaigning in the last election, why will the very dull and boring Ramotar do better? The PPP has been revealed to be doing NOTHINGabout its reputation for corruption since 2011.
Rev if the PPP continues to fail to turn out its voters, and its attempts to do so by raising the "bad blackman bogey" leads to even more blacks showing up to vote, tell me how again is the PPP guaranteed to get the majority.
You will be wrong the same way that you were wrong in the 2012 US presidential elections.
The fact is that Guyanese are losing interest in voting, and the PPP base is losing interest at an even faster pace.
So here is the deal rev. True the PNC is constrained in the numbers of results that it will receive. True the prospects of a PNC govt is remote. But its also true that if more and more Indians stay home, or vote for third parties, and the PNC gets its base out and makes inroads into interior locations as it did last time that "41" to increase to 44%, which will be enough to deprive the PPP of 51%, depending on how well some third party does.
Will respond later.
Rev
