APNU will remain capped at 40%, based, on its usual domination of the African and mixed vote.
So will this be PPP 45%, APNU 40%, AFC 15%. Many of the disaffected PPP voters will not vote, blunting much growth in the AFC.
If the APNU remains with the same percentage and the PPP voters stay home in numbers similar to black voters last time why do you think they will still garner 45%?
Small changes, cumulatively, to the electorate behavior will produce big differences at the polls. If the 70 or so new voters who will be in the 18 to 25 range vote APNU and ACF in high high numbers the PPP will lose massively. If Mixed vote stay consistently with the APNU the same will happen also. If the AFC poaches another 5 percent, the same also happens. The PPP has so many ways to lose this that is hardly likely they can win big.
I think that you under estimate the degree to which many poor Africans are alienated from Guyana. They don't see any benefit in voting so will not. What is now happening is that levels of disaffection and alienation among grass roots Indians is now rising to the level that it has long been among grass roots blacks.
No one in Guyana thinks that the AFC is going to win, which is why Gerhard left. Those who are politically motivated will support them out of protest. Many more are just going to be more convinced than ever that voting is a waste of their time.
As most of the older die hard PNCites die off the replacement generation will be less inclined to vote. This being why the PNC maintains its position even as the PPP slips. Reality is that voter turn out has massively declined in Guyana, and all one needs to do is to compare 2001 results with those a scant 10 years later.
The only changing dynamic will be the extent to which disaffected PPP supporters bother to vote, as if they do vote the AFC will benefit. Many however feel that the AFC cannot win, and they will not support APNU, so voting is a waste of their time.
Folks who are filled with moral outrage fail to understand that most people just want to get through each day, no longer think that politics is relevant to their lives, so increasing numbers cease to vote. A scenario like this favors the incumbent who has the power to buy votes. You know that the PPP has already begun its vote buying spree.