explain explain explain  

Since 1964, did the PNC or any of its variants - PNC R - APNU, JOPP, etc ever win more than 51%? or even as low as 44%?

What makes the upcoming elections different?

Now do not tell me East Indians leaving since that is only half of the equation.  Progressive afro-Guyanese are also leaving for the islands by the thousands.

just suppose the indian people find their conscious   and stay away from the poll

The value of the AFC is that it can walk into PPP villages and PNC villages and score support.  It is drawing from both sides.

The AFC can break the PPP back by denying them the majority and if APNU allow itself to a majority of the Ministries but allow the AFC the presidency under a fixed program, then the PPP can be beaten.

The fixed program has to have a new constitution in 18 months included a new vote on it by way of a referendum.

Then a review of all PPP deals.

Then a proper wages increase in the first year.

Establishing and appointment of all commissions and constitutional offices including the integrity commission and procurement commission.

police reforms

basic job creation initiative.

local government elections.

all of this in the first 12 months.

If APNU believes that they are entitled to the Presidency, then let us call new elections after 3 year under the new constitution and let us have a 3 way race and see who get the most votes and then have a post elections alliance which the new constitution will allow for.

i can live with this

East Indians will never stay away from the polls.  Do not make that assumption.

i think i can make it,most feel if they vote against the ppp they will betray a indian party but if they stay away they did not betray but  they did not  support corruption either    

The PPP didnt get 51% last time.   Its main base, Indians, are fleeing in higher numbers than others.  Also Indians are not as loyal to the PPP as they once were.

The Burnham constitution, of which the PPP is so proud, says that the plurality is all that is needed.  If APNU gets 40.8% and the PPP 40.6% the APNU forms the government.

In 2001 the PNC won 166k votes.  In 2011 the PPP won 166k votes.  Since 1997 the PPP has lost votes in EVERY election.  APNU was able to arrest the decline of 2006, adding 26k votes in 2011.

The PNC is 27k votes off its peak in 2001.  The PPP is off 55k off its peak in 1997.

While the most likely outcome will be a PPP plurality with further declines in support and in % of votes received, a PNC victory isnt impossible.  In fact the PNC can find 27k more votes in G/town, among the disillusioned who havent voted since 2001 and the young who never bothered to vote.

To make it easy for you.  The PNC increased its votes in 2001, lost some in 2006, and gained again in 2011.  The PPP has lost votes every election since 1997.

The PPP appears to be in more trouble with its base than the PNC is with theirs.

In 1991 the Indian population was 49%, falling to 43% in 2002.  In 1991 the African identified population was 32% and the mixed (most part African) 12%.  IN 2002 the African identified population was 30% and the mixed had increased to 17%.

Note that the PNC gets 40% of the vote, and so clearly obtains a substantial part of the mixed vote.

The AFC can, but its not.   Sending Nigel Hughes when Nagamootoo is the presidential candidate is like the PPP sending Sam Hinds.

Every Guyanese knows that the PM is a token and the President has absolute power, so it is the presidential candidate who will determine what votes a party attracts.  Nagamootoo remains unwilling to present himself in front of black crowds, and is mistaken if he thinks that Hughes can woo these voters on his own.  It will be like last time when the spoke highly of Hughes, but went to vote for Granger.

Nagamootoo wil have to fix in his head that he can speak to BOTH major voting blocs.  Because both blocs will have to be convinced, should he become president, that he will represent their interests. If backs see him speaking only to Indians it doesnt inspire their confidence.

Classic the day this happens,as Nehru says Guyana

will be going to the moon.

This isnt about whether APNU thinks that they are entitled to the Presidency.  If APNU gets the most votes then they get the executive.  The AFC isnt interested in a pre existing alliance with APNU.  So why are they telling APNU what to do.

What the AFC needs to do, once the new elections are held, is to begin the process of changing the constitution, developing their own ideas and requesting that the civic socety, and interested members of the public do the same.  There should be public forums to deal with this issue.

The AFC needs to get off their soap box of moral "superiority".  Trotman, Nagamootoo and Ramjattan were all members of the same legacy parties and didnt stand out as being in disagreement with those parties, until personal issues arose.  Trotman ran against Corbin, and lost, and Jagdeo ignored Ramjattan and Nagamootoo. 

In addition the behavior of the Hughes family with regards to Amaila Falls smacked of conflict of interest.

The AFC needs to let the people of Guyana determine who they wish to lead them, and involve the people of Guyana in fashioning a new constitution.

And if the thrust of these constitutional changes doesnt focus on improving local governance, making the goverining entities more accountable to the electorate, and increasing the involvement of the population in institutions of governance then it misses the point.  This should not be an attempted power grab by the AFC, which has failed to win a large amount of support, and so seems to wish to increase its power through back door deals.

The PPP received 27,000 more votes than APNU in the 2011 elections. This is a relatively wide margin. Voter turnout in region 6 was just 66%. With greater voter turnout in areas that traditionally support the PPP we can expect the party to easily cross the 50% mark. The AFC will not pull as much votes as they did in the last elections. Nagamootoo and Ramjattan have alienated themselves from voters because of their shameless association with the PNC> APNU ain't going anywhere.

Supposition is the mother of all screw-ups.

PPP votes in 2001.  Down from 1997.

PPP votes in 2006.  Down from 2001.

PPP votes in 2011.  Down from 2006.

The PPP has lost 25% of the votes that it had in 1997.

PNC UP in 2001 compared to 1997.

PNC down in 2006 vs. 2001.

PNC UP in 2011 vs. 2006.   PNC has lost 15% of the votes that it had in 1997.

Looking at this trend the PPP is in deeper trouble than is the PNC.  Now add to that the fact that APNU stands a much better chance of winning in 2015/16 than it has ever had and we might see a galvanizing of its support base, united in hope that their oppression under PPP rule might be at end.

If I were the PPP I would accept the fact that a loss to the PNC is no longer as improbable that it once was.   The PPP support has fallen to the level that the PNC received in 2001.  Indeed if the trend of declining support for the PPP continues and it gets  150k, all the PNC will need to do is to gain 12k more votes.  In 2011 they added 26k over their 2006 total.

As the Indian vote declines, and also increasingly strays from the PPP and as Africans and most mixed voters remain hostile to the PPP and as most Amerindian remain indifferent to coast lander politics the PPP is seeing the sand being washed away from its feet as it stumbles along the beach.

I agree like when PPP supporters screamed that it would get 60% of the votes in 2011, and would beat the PNC in Linden and Buxton.  Having been proven so wrong a scant 3 years ago, they now assume that they will get 51% of the votes.

Your predictions are based on two things:

1) Increase support for the PNC and AFC

2) Decrease in support for the PPP.

All indications are that the AFC cannot hold on the those votes they took away from the PPP in 2011. Guyanese no longer see Moses as a PPP man and Ramjattan is now described as the Madman from 48. The PPP is closing the gap in region 4 due to the influx of more people. Support for the PPP remains strong. 

If the PPP wins region 4 they will win the election hands down.

Where did you take statistics? The PPP is defending 8 points. They lost 17000 from their base that at a minimum equates to a loss of half of that. THey are plainly crooks with no apparent qualms to hide that fact so I am sure given the high number of young voters one can also see and increase number of them not kissing the PPP butt knowing they are not expected to benefit much under their regime. Some 120k mainly APNU voters stayed away from the polls last time. These can be persuaded to come back into the system.

The AFC most certainly will not lose their votes despite the crowing of the PPP. The PPP on the other hand cannot expect their horrible thievery and patrician overlord behavior will endear them to others except the profound racist sheep. Their behinds will have to stand on a record and that is poorly lacking

 Be a thinker than a pampleteer.Why cannot the AFC hold it votes? Do you think the PPP woll be successful in their smear campaign of indicting them of corruption on disparity of bigan prices, the Hughes working for Amalia falls etc? Get real.

THere is no influx in of people in region four. Padding the list with chinese cannot fill the gap of some 17k loss. The Americans said they give some 50K visas. That is definitely more from the PPP support ranks and even distributed geographically it means a negative. New voters are not backward thinking and racist as the older ones so they are not going to succumb to the lies of the PPP that the PNC is their worse enemy.

They will see the prevailing conditions of their lives and the expressively naked corrupt practices of the PPP, their inability to get jobs without bribing someone or the difficulty of getting any official service from birth certificates, driver's licenses or even a telephone! Do you think they are unaware of the hopeless incapacity of the PPP do do due deligence in crime prevention? You are deluding yourselves if the pressures of living in a PPP thieving regime will overwhelm reason.

Hey hey hey...like yuh lashing yuh shadow.