* The supporters of both the PPP and PNC are energized, charged up and ready to vote for their party.

* But as we all know, in any election in which the supporters of both the PPP and PNC are motivated and inspired to cast their votes the PPP will win.

BOTTOM LINE:

* 50+1% of the Guyana electorate will re-elect the PPP and experience the thrill of victory; 50-1% will support the PNC and experience the agony of defeat.

Rev

* First of all storm bai watch your language. The Rev does not usually respond to disrespectful posters.

RE: INCUMBENCY

* 3 years ago Donald Ramotar was a virtual unknown. He was plucked from obscurity by Jagdeo and his PPP/civic party despite running a piss poor campaign managed to get 48.6% of the votes----the PNC which ran a good campaign received 40.8% of the votes.

* In the 3 years since Ramotar has been president the Guyana economy has continued to progress.

* More importantly incumbent Ramotar has won the trust and respect of the majority of Guyanese.

* And most importantly the vast majority of the genuine and authentic East Indians in Guyana are eager and enthusiastic to vote for the PPP in 2015---thousands were discouraged and despondent and stayed at home in 2011.

* Come May 11th, 50+1% of the Guyana electorate will re-elect the PPP.

Rev

Simple Simon is too dumb to ask why this didn't happen under the PPP.

Region 3 is now more important than Region 6.  If APNU AFC make inroads into the rice farmers this will offset any loss in Region 6.

The Amerindians are an unknown quality.  Their turn out is low and much of their past behavior was about running with the winner to get the spoils. With the PPP being less obviously the winner, and the Granger campaigning heavily in those areas it isn't assured that a high Amerindian turn out favors the PPP.  In fact I suspect the opposite, as many of the votes in the past were an ageing generation accustomed to voting as their tochaos commanded. Will a new generation behave this way?

1.  Now that the people know more about Ramotar they don't seem impressed.  This is why Jagdeo is campaigning so heavily even as he isn't running for any position.

2.  Gold has begun to slow.  Sugar is a disgrace.  Rice has problems as the rice farmers are being paid a pittance.  How do you know that your average Guyanese feels well off.  In fact the money laundered inspired construction boom in G/town might have convinced them how increasingly skewed income distribution in Guyana is, plus the increased Chinese-ization of the economy is upsetting many.

They are a very well off business owner living outside of Guyana.  They think that Harper has some deep seated issues, or maybe is being coerced.

carib bai:

* Region 3 is as safe as a child on its mother's breast as far as the PPP is concerned.

* Back in 2011 the PPP received 33K votes in region 3; the PNC 14K; AFC 3K

* In 2015 the PPP will win that region convincingly again.

Rev

Antiman,

Region 3 today is about as safe as Region 6 was the week before the 2011 Election for the PPP.

A loss of several thousand Indians in Region 3 and a lightly higher APNU turnout in Region 4 means the PPP is an Opposition Party chap.

This is the reality today. Region 3 Indians who may defect to the Coalition because of PPP buggery. And Region 4's uncertain Black/Mixed turnout who are reasonably situated to have a higher turnout.

carib:

* Listen up!

* 50-1% of the Guyanese people---negative and pessimistic people like yourself---may not be impressed by Ramotar---that is understandable.

* But 50+1% of the people are enchanted and captivated by their leader. He has clearly inspired and motivated them, and come May 11th they will re-elect him as their President.

Rev

The Indian vote is maybe 45%, the African maybe 35%. The PPP can win by attracting a few cross ethnic votes as it has the power of incumbency.  APNU AFC have to work harder to get these cross ethnic votes.

The PPP, because it is the incumbent, attracts a larger % of non Indian votes, maybe 60% of the Amerindian, 20% of the mixed (TK cited a study) and 5% of the black (or 10% of the black/mixed).  APNU basically gets only black and some mixed votes.  The AFC have yet to prove that they have a permanent support base.

So while neither party can win an election based on tribal calls alone the PPP still has an advantage.  It can buy votes.  Intimidate voters (poor people who received houselots).  It can bribe polling station officials.

So at the end of the day this is a 50:50 election. 

What has the PPP at a disadvantage is that this is the first time that they aren't the presumed winner.  But then that might make the tribal calls more powerful as they get Indians (who might have previously not planned to vote) out to vote PPP out of fear of a marauding African dictatorship, should APNU AFC win.

There are many unknowns, the biggest being the extent to which Indians in the 25-35 age range (so outside of the control of their parents) buy into what APNU AFC is selling.

The disaffected blacks/mixed, especially males, who don't vote still might not vote.  But then maybe they will.......another unknown, based on whether they see Granger as being interested in them.  APNU does seem to be attracting more young faces to their rallies than in prior years when they consisted of mainly middle aged black (not mixed) women.

Why don't you go through your notes about Obama and see why you making predictions actually hurts the people who you support.

How many younger and more educated Indians do you think by into your racist drivel, not only directed against blacks, but also against Indians who are exercising their rights to support who ever they wish?

And in 2006 the PPP won 35k, PNC 11k and the AFC less than 3k.

Now take the APNU 14k plus the AFC 3k and add around 3k more to take into account angry rice farmers.  Give the PPP 30k, again because of angry rice famers.  Yes the PPP still wins but APNU AFC gets vital votes to add on top of the huge haul that they will make in Region 4.  Region 3 was HUGELY helpful to APNU last time.

* The PPP won region 3 with nearly 66% of the votes in 2011 and is expected to win the region by a similar percentage in 2015.

*Listen shitaan! Folks like you and carib are free to engage in sophistry, fantasy and wishful thinking. It is your prerogative. You are free to reason out and intellectualize a PNC win. But come May 11th 50+1% of the Guyana electorate will re-elect the PPP.

Rev 

Most Reverend Antiman,

Let's assume arguendo that the PPP is indeed at 51% or even wins at 51% on May 11th.

That would mean that an extraordinary Coalition supported by Blacks, Mixed, Indians, and Amerindians ganged up successfully and came within 1 point of power.

This means that Indians and Amerindians were willing to put aside the PNC's sordid history because they view the PPP as the BIGGER baddie now.

49% for a multiethnic Coalition in GUYANA of all places? Mene mene tekel upharsin!

shitaan bai:

* I will ignore the "Most Reverend Antiman" personal attack---your bitterness and irritation is understandable. It must deeply pain and infuriate you to know that the PPP will continue to rule Guyana after the May 11th election.

* By the way shitaan, when Obama won the 2012 elections he received 51.1% of the popular votes(332EV)----guess what ? Obama couldn't give a rat's ass about the 48.9% who didn't vote for him---he facting won.

* In Guyana the PPP will win with 50+1% of the votes---and like winner Obama they won't give a rat's ass about the 50-1% who voted against them.

* IN POLITICS A WIN IS A WIN REGARDLESS OF THE MARGIN.

* Anyway shitaan, keep on analyzing Guyana's politics---the reason you, the Rev and all the others post here is we are intrigued by the political game in the old country.

* Once again shitaan, the Rev forgives your petulance--call me all the names you want---but come May 11th the party I support(PPP/Civic) will emerge victorious with 50+1% of the votes.

Rev

Rev your screams of Obama 47% were well remembered together with your obscene bigotry.

We will now remember your 50+1%.  The problem is that if 2 people fail to vote PPP your prediction will be wrong.

It turns out that even you aren't confident of a guaranteed PPP win, even though you pretend otherwise.

My dear sista Rev Ali, the PPP/Cabalry are corrupted ,big time thieves. Look at the life style of the ministers and senior members of the government and then look at the poor,struggling and suffering people. The ppp have looted the country and what they have not stolen they give to their friends or sold to foreigners for their own benefits.

Rev why are you sleeping in ignorance? 

carib:

* It seems as if you are mathematically challenged.

* Lemme help you out.50+1% is really 51%---It is not 50% + 1 vote.

* In the 2011 election the PPP received 166,340 votes out of the 342,236 votes cast----that's 48.6%

* 50+1% of the votes for the PPP in the 2011 election would have been 174,540

* 174,540(50+1%) - 166,340(48.6%) = 8200 votes

* In 2015 with the PPP base energized and motivated to turn out and vote---50+1% it will be for the PPP.

Rev

50+1% is really 51%

No.....50 (the cardinal) is not 50%. So you mean 50 votes plus 1% of the votes cast. If the votes cast = 300,000, then 1% = 3,000. You're giving the PPP a total of 3,001 votes. diabolique, mon cher!!!

Rev, you are mathematically challenged. You should have stayed in grade school a bit longer.

If 174,540 =(50+1%)

then 1% = 174,540 - 50 = 173, 490

Ok Dunce?

Tell you what.  At this time in the last campaign APNU just woke up from its slumber because it had no money to wage a long term campaign.  The AFC was stuck going no where until suddenly Nagamootoo left the PPP and joined them.

Yet they won 51%.

Now I was skeptical about APNU AFC campaigning.  They have been waging an aggressive campaign.  They have a youth arm which has been quite innovative, and to be honest Guyanese are TIRED of the PPP.

Now the PPP are shrewd, hungry and corrupt and are shameless in stealing, and openly at that, taxpayer funds to campaign.  They have the full power of incumbency, and so they can find ways to offset the boredom that even many Indians have of them. They can even offset the fact that for the first time in 22 years FREEDOM day is coming for black and mixed Guyanese, as they see a high probability of a PPP defeat.

And that is why it is 50:50.  Its the power of the PPP vs. the will of the people.  It all depends on who shows up and whether people vote HOPE or FEAR!.

That is why I assumed that he meant 50%+1.  I think that this is what he really means, but just cannot say so.

* Looks like GNI's karimullah is the reincarnation of the great Indian mathematician Srinivasa Ramanujan.

Rev

Post election scenario.

Rev disappears never to post again on GNI. Having lost face over Obama, when he vanished for 2 years, he will not be able to withstand the shame again.

1.  Results show the APNU AFC wins 50.1% of the vote, the PPP 48.9% with other baby parties pulling in the rest (Mark has gone missing).

2.  The PPP screams that the PNC controlled GECOM rigged the elections and it is 1973 again.  Jimmy Carter tells them to behave and just put on their prison suits and accept their fates as their butt buddy Roger Khan now is.

3.  Jagdeo gets into a rage and says that HE is going no where.  He screams that he is GOD and that he owns Guyana and that the "coolie party" should rule forever because he says so.

Ramotar is quiet.  Harper is seen boarding a flight to Toronto. 

Kamla calls up Jagdeo and tells him that he is making Indo dominated govts look bad and that Rowley is going to use this against her when she is forced to hold elections.  She too is bedeviled by tremendous corruption within her ranks.

4.  A bunch of "unexplained" attacks on Indians commence.  Granger and Nagamootoo hold a press conference decrying those attacks and urging the PPP to accept the results and resign.  Jagdeo screams no way  It turns out that its "dirty" Indians who are being attacked.

5.  The ABC nations, the OAS and several CARICOM nations (Trinidad included) threaten sanctions against Guyana and to withhold PPP official visas and to deny them the right to board CAL planes if they don't resign.

6.  Jagdeo and his boyfriend from Guyana Times are seen boarding a private jet, destination unknown.  Several ministries as well as NICIL and Go Invest go up in flames and the entire Gov't IT system crashes.  It turns out that all the fire began in areas where files are stored.

7.  Clinton Urling meets with Granger and says he was only joking when  he allowed himself to be placed on the PPP list and as an expert soup connoisseur declares that APNU soup taste much better.

8.  Kwame was seen at the airport wailing that the PPP elite f0rgot him and that it isn't fair.

Kit Nascimento, Norman McLean and others remind Granger of the "sterling work" that they did for the PNC in the past, and offer their services.  Granger says no thanks.  Rohee begs Nagamootoo for a job.  H begs for pity, claiming that, alone among PPP officials he didn't steal enough, so really needs a job.

9. Jay Bharrat joins the PPP when he sees that 60% of the heads of govt agencies or corporations are African.  He thought that since Moses parted the Red Sea who would also take over the PNC and as a result have 80%  of the slots go to Nagamootoo AFC supporters.

Given the percentages the PPP score and taking you at your word that most duglas and Afros vote PNC, then most other races (Indian and non-Indian) vote PPP, unless you view them as "children of a lesser god".

All the mix/duglas i know want the PPP/C to win. They know a good thing when they see it.

LOL! CaribJ, Can I frame this masterpiece?

President Ramotar Asks Guyanese To Help The PPP/Civic Win Their Biggest Victory Ever

QUESTION FOR ALL GNIers

* What is the biggest percentage victory the PPP has ever achieved in a general election in Guyana ? And what year was that ?

* Maybe I should post that question in gilbakka's "lemme tickle allyuh brain" thread in social---there are some real sharp people who post there.

https://guyana.crowdstack.io/topic/lemme-tickle-allyuh-brain

* Folks like yuji and baseman are already predicting a 54% win for the PPP---they'll have to do slightly better to have their biggest victory ever.

Rev

Indians are fed up with the PPP/Crooks, and now being drawn to the APNU+AFC Unity Party.

Rawan lost the war.

The PPP demons will also lose the war in 2015.

10 days before election i will post my percentage,

if i loose will quit Political and stay with Gilly

lemme-tickle-allyuh-brain.

Voters must not forget the record of

Lumumba, Kwamee, Hamilton,

Kit Nascimento, Norman McClean,

Edgehill, Witicka and Bynoe

and Keep on Voting for the PPP.

Here is my 'guestimate'... PNC will get around 40%, AFC 2%, Others 5%, PPP 53%.

I think you mean 'guesstimate'. You are a very talented and creative bean kounta.

Mits,leave poor Alena alone at least an effort

have been made,big surprise on May 12.

The PPP gets around 60% of the Amerindian vote, but given that the vast majority of non Indians are black or mixed, then the vast majority of non Indians hate the PPP......

Your point!  Understand that Amerindians don't have a stake in coastal governance. so will vote for the presumed winner in order to guarantee access to state resources.  Now that the PPP isn't the presumed winner they may not do as well among this group.

Now do you include among "other races"  Chinese slave labor, who should not have a right to vote as they are neither Commonwealth citizens or permanent residents of Guyana?   Because the Guyanese who aren't African, Indian, Amerindian, or mixed aren't even 1%.  I suspect that most of them are AFC supporters as well.

* Rev was away from GNI for 6 months---have been back for 2 weeks---will be leaving later this year on another 6 months trek---Rev is a global adventurer.

Rev

Is that your new term for  Bisexual?

Alean06, did you decline to attend top set math at QC?