WHY ROMNEY IS WINNING THE WOMEN'S VOTE

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EXPLANATION:

It is a poorly kept secret among students of female psychology that women are not attracted so much to beautiful men as they are attracted to men who are accompanied by beautiful women.

Now you know why Romney is doing well among women.

Rev

POLLS WITH LARGE SAMPLES FAVOR ROMNEY; POLLS WITH SMALL SAMPLES FAVOR OBAMA--here is the proof:

Romney leads in all polls with samples 1000 or more; Obama leads in the polls with pipsqueak samples(less than 1000)----anyone who has taken stats 101 knows that polls with larger samples are more accurate.

ONCE AGAIN--THE NUMBERS DON'T LIE--THE MITTSER WILL BE AMERICA'S 45TH PRESIDENT.

Rev

Gallup's "outlier" polling is well-known.

Rasmussen is in Fox's den.

The national polling does not tell the story of the battleground states. Even those two polls show Romeny with a tough road to 270. It is Obama's election to lose. Romney's 1st debate bounce has subsided, and is beginning to be reversed. Gallup had Romney up by 9 percentage points then and now has him up by 3, with the caveat that they are different from all the other majopr polling.

The numbers don't lie - especially when it comes to the magical 270.

NY POST ENDORSES MITT ROMNEY--Check out the empty chair

It must be heartbreaking for Obambi supporters on GNI--reality is setting in--America's first muslim born black marxist president Odinga Hussein Obambi will be fired on Nov 6th--white Americans want a real leader in the white house---a problem solver--not a hoax or a bull$hitter.

Rev

You're clutching at straws Karimullah---you are in absolute denial.

YOU ALSO DON'T KNOW HOW TO INTERPRET POLLS.

Go back and read the lead post---REV's EXPLANATION!

Obama is the incumbent president--he needs to be over 50% nationally inorder to be safe---right now he is polling around 47% nationally---that means with less than 2 weeks to go---he is in extreme danger of losing.

Rev

Rev,

At the risk of this being a tit-for-tat, I'm going to re-send your comments to yourself. If this becomes an approach tantamount to "religion", then we don't have a conversation and I'll do to your posts what I've been doing until this one - ignore them!

Now here's the rejoinder to you using your own rejoinder:

To Rev Al.....

You're clutching at straws Karimullah Rev Al---you are in absolute denial.

YOU ALSO DON'T KNOW HOW TO INTERPRET POLLS.

Go back and read the lead my post---REV's Kari's EXPLANATION!

and finally, stop being a jack-ass and engage in civil conversation that's not bereft of intellectual and realistic input!

kari:

This is what you wrote:

"The national polling does not tell the story of the battleground states..."

Now karimullah, if you understood polling in America you would know that that battleground state polling numbers usually lag national polls.

Listen kari! The 2012 election is a return to historical norm where you have an incumbent(Obama) and a challenger(Romney).

Pay attention karimullah!

The primary metric in an election involving an incumbent and a challenger is the incumbent's level of support.

THE INCUMBENT IS ONLY SAFE WHEN HE IS POLLING WELL ABOVE 50%.

If the incumbent stays below 50% he is in danger. And if he stays below 48% he is in extreme danger.

RIGHT NOW OBAMA SITS AT 47% AND HASN'T BEEN ABOVE 48% SINCE THE FIRST DEBATE.

After the 3rd debate there is no further gain in support for the incumbent---while historically the challenger climbs 3+ points.

THE NUMBERS DON'T LIE KARIMULLAH---OBAMA WILL LOSE!

Rev

From Jeff Zeleny of the NY Times

Mitt Romney is savoring the energy surrounding his candidacy, talking with rising confidence about his ability to overtake President Obama in the closing days of the race.

He dwells far less on the biggest obstacle facing his campaign: the Electoral College.

But the swelling crowds and the fresh optimism among his supporters do not minimize the challenge confronting him across a wide landscape of battleground states, where Mr. Romney must win a series of individual statewide races, rather than a national contest. His room for error is so slight, one adviser said, the mathematics could be more daunting than the politics.

“I’m optimistic, I’m optimistic,” Mr. Romney told supporters Wednesday night in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, repeating the word throughout his rally. “Not just about winning — we are going to win, by the way, we’re going to do that. I’m more optimistic about the future for America.”

If that confidence is welcomed by Mr. Romney’s supporters, who far outnumber the crowds at most Republican rallies four years ago at this point, the mood is more guarded back at hisheadquarters in Boston, where the campaign is trying “not to get caught up in the moment,” in the words of one aide.

The Romney team is mindful that the new enthusiasm has not opened any new paths to winning 270 electoral votes. The campaign continues to keep an eye on trying to make a late run at Pennsylvania, advisers said, but it remains more of a last-ditch option.

The most efficient way for Mr. Romney to win still rests on the 18 electoral votes of Ohio, where he arrived Wednesday evening for a two-day visit that will take him to nearly every corner of the state. His fight to win Ohio — the highest priority of both campaigns this week — resembles a governor’s race more than a presidential campaign.

A Time Magazine poll released Wednesday showed Mr. Obama with a five-point edge over Mr. Romney in Ohio, 49 percent to 44 percent, which is within the margin of sampling error. Party strategists on both sides say the race appears to be remarkably close, but two senior Republican officials here said that they believed Mr. Obama had a slight advantage and that they worried that Mr. Romney’s gains had leveled off.

Advisers to Mr. Romney argue that they can win the election without winning Ohio, but it means that the campaign must perform nearly flawlessly in every other battleground. One aide referred to Ohio as “still the big nut to crack,” but a victory would probably mean that Mr. Obama’s Midwestern firewall of Iowa and Wisconsin also was highly vulnerable.

While Mr. Obama can win re-election by carrying Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin, in addition to holding the other Democratic-leaning states across the country, Mr. Romney must capture more states. Even if he wins Ohio, Mr. Romney still must win Florida, North Carolina, Virginia — and one more state.

While both campaigns are still advertising in nine battleground states, advisers to both sides say that the most competitive fight is now taking place in seven: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin. A huge get-out-the-vote effort is under way in all states, with only a sliver of undecided voters remaining.

Even MSNBC is now getting quite concerned about the momentum going to Romney.  Seems like the last two debates havent counted.

At the end of the day Kari you have to subtract some support for Obama as indicated in the polls.

Where Romney is behind in the poll of polls who is within the statistical error level...i.e. under 3% behind...this can be over come depending on who votes.

1.  Some white people lie when asked if they will support a black candidate, and especially in a super charged election where some fear that being seen as being anti Obama is equated to being racist.

2.  The base of Obama's support, young whites, blacks and Hispanics, are not especially motivated this year, when compared to 2008.  These three groups are having the toughest time, and their immediate prospects are not bright.  Indeed as many as 10% of blacks have lost their homes in this crisis and their unemployment is almost at record highs. 

For Hispanics its as bad as the ground zero of the housing crisis, CA,NV,AZ, and FL, are states with high Hispanic populations. Hispanics, dsiproportionately in housing construction, suffered tremendously. This group has suffered even more than have blacks in loss of homes. 

50% of college grads are either not working, or working in sub par positions, and they remain crushed with debt.  Dont think that Ryan's taunt about those with fading "Hope and Change" posters doesnt impact some.  Not that he will get their votes, but his main aim is to ensure that they dont vote.

You can argue whose fault all this might be.  Even if these folks do not blame Obama, many dont see what he is doing to help and might just not vote.  People arent interested in all what you claim that Obama has achieved if there has been no positive impact on their lives.

Both you and Rev Al are counting your chickens before the eggs are laid.  The get out to vote mechanisms in core states will determine who wins.  Note that several core states have new ID requirements, or other ways to trip up poor people and students as they attempt to cast their votes.

It will be a long night on Nov 6, it will not be a clear cut win and we have to hope that we dont have a repeat of 2000, as the nation is in much worse shape now than it was then.

Oct. 24: In Polls, Romney’s Momentum Seems to Have Stopped

 

The term “momentum” is used very often in political coverage — but reporters and analysts seldom pause to consider what it means.

Let me tell you what I think it ought to mean: that a body in motion tends to stay in motion. That is, it ought to imply that a candidate is gaining ground in the race — and, furthermore, that he is likely to continue to gain ground.

 

As a thesis or prediction about how polls behave, this notion is a bit dubious, especially in general elections. In races for the United States Senate, for instance, my research suggests that a candidate who gains ground in the polls in one month (say, from August to September) is no more likely to do so during the next one (from September to October). If anything, the candidate who gains ground in the polls in one month may be more likely to lose ground the next time around.

 

(Where might there be clearer evidence for momentum, as I’ve defined it? In primaries, especially when there are multiple candidates in the race and voters are behaving tactically in choosing among them. But there is little evidence of it in general elections.)

 

The way the term “momentum” is applied in practice by the news media, however, it usually refers only to the first part of the clause — meaning simply that a candidate has been gaining ground in the polls, whether or not he might continue to do so. (I’ve used this phrasing plenty of times myself, so I have no real basis to complain about it.)

 

But there are other times when the notion of momentum is behind the curve — as it probably now is if applied to Mitt Romney’s polling.

 

Mr. Romney clearly gained ground in the polls in the week or two after the Denver debate, putting himself in a much stronger overall position in the race. However, it seems that he is no longer doing so.

 

Take Wednesday’s national tracking polls, for instance.(There are now eight of them published each day.) Mr. Romney gained ground in just one of the polls, an online poll conducted for Reuters by the polling organization Ipsos. He lost ground in five others, with President Obama improving his standing instead in those surveys. On average, Mr. Obama gained about one point between the eight polls.

 

This is the closest that we’ve come in a week or so to one candidate clearly having “won” the day in the tracking polls — and it was Mr. Obama.

 

The trend could also be spurious. If the race is steady, it’s not that hard for one candidate to gain ground in five of six polls (excluding the two that showed no movement on Wednesday) just based on chance alone.

What isn’t very likely, however, is for one candidate to lose ground in five of six polls if the race is still moving toward him. In other words, we can debate whether Mr. Obama has a pinch of momentum or whether the race is instead flat, but it’s improbable that Mr. Romney would have a day like this if he still had momentum.

 

The FiveThirtyEight model looks at a broader array of polls — including state polls — in order to gauge the overall trend in the race.

Our “now-cast” also finds a slightly favorable trend for Mr. Obama over the course of the past 10 days or so. Mr. Romney’s position peaked in the “now-cast” on Friday, Oct. 12, at which point it estimated a virtual tie in the popular vote (Mr. Obama was the projected “winner” by 0.3 percentage points). As of Wednesday, however, Mr. Obama was 1.4 percentage points ahead in the “now-cast”, meaning that he may have regained about 1 percentage point of the 4 points or so that he lost after Denver. Mr. Obama’s chances of winning the Electoral College were up in the FiveThirtyEight forecast to 71 percent on Wednesday from 68.1 percent on Tuesday.

 

It’s not yet clear how much of this, if any, has to do with the final presidential debate in Florida this Monday, which instant polls regarded Mr. Obama as having won. Instead, it’s been more of a slow and unsteady trajectory for him, with Mr. Obama often taking two steps forward but then one step back. It’s also not out of the question that the apparent trend just represents statistical noise.

 

At the same time, there is more reason to take a potential change in the polls seriously if it is precipitated by a news event like the debate. The tracking polls that were released on Wednesday contained only one full day of interviews that postdated the Florida debate. If the debate moved the needle toward Mr. Obama, it should become more apparent in the coming days.

 

The battleground state polls that came in on Wednesday were generally very close to our model’s current projections. For instance, there were three Ohio polls published on Wednesday; one showed a tied race there, while the other two showed Mr. Obama ahead by margins of two and five points.That’s pretty much what you’d expect to see out of a trio of Ohio polls if Mr. Obama’s lead there were about two points, which is where our model now has it.

 

Some of the polls, especially the Time Magazine poll which had Mr. Obama five points ahead in Ohio, seemed to set off a lot of discussion on Twitter, as though people were surprised that Mr. Obama still held the lead there.

But these polls are really nothing new. Since the Denver debate, Mr. Obama has held the lead in 16 Ohio polls against 6 for Mr. Romney. In Nevada, Mr. Obama has had the lead in 11 polls, to Mr. Romney’s 1. Mr. Obama has led in all polls of Wisconsin since the Denver debate, and he has had five poll leads in Iowa to one for Mr. Romney.

 

Part of the confusion (and part of the reason behind the perception that Mr. Romney is still gaining ground in the race) may be because of the headlines that accompany polls.

 

We’re still getting some polls trickling in where the most recent comparison is to a poll conducted before the Denver debate. We should expect Mr. Romney to gain ground relative to a poll conducted before Denver. (Mr. Romney may have lost a point or so off his bounce, but he has clearly not lost all of it). But it isn’t news when he does; Mr. Romney’s Denver gains had long ago become apparent, and priced into the various polling averages and forecast models.

 

The question, rather, is whether Mr. Romney is gaining ground relative to the post-Denver polls — or if, as Wednesday’s polls seemed to imply, the race instead may have ticked back slightly toward Mr. Obama.

And don't lump me in the same sentence as that Gally-wag Rev Al! I might just start calling you Rev Crib

Kari you know when polls show two people 1-3% point apart this all falls within the range of the statistical error, meaning that they are tied.

What will matter will be how enthusiastic the bases of the two parties are, and how effective the get out to vote mechanisms are.  Posting every bit of proi Obama data means nothing, because as you can see Rev Al and baseman can fidn pro Romney stuff.

Obama is weak because the economy is weak.  An even weaker Romney and his flip flopping and endorsement of clowns like Aiken is the only thing that might save him.

So please dont fool yourself that Americans are wildly in love with Obama.  You might be. To most people its a matter if deciding which between two weak candidates should they support...and even whether they should vote or not.

If you mention "Hope and Change" to blacks, Hispanics, and young educated whites they will laugh at you.  What will get them out is the fear about what a Romney/Ryan ticket might represent.

Are you now suggesting that MSNBC is joing Fox in blind support of Romney, or pretending to be objective like CNN.  MSNBC makes no bones that they are liberals, hate Romney and desperately want Obama to win.

Unlike you they are realists and understand that the battle isnt over until the fat lady starts to sing.  She hasnt even begun to walk towards the stage yet.

What really has Obama done for people who 5 years ago owned homes and now dont?  Who 5 years ago had $50k jobs, but now are struggling to get a $25k job, being first fired and last hired becasue they happen to be black.  Blacks w/o college education now crowded out of jobs by young college educated whites who must take what ever job that they can get so that they dont have to beg their parents for help to pay their basic bills.

You dont know so do not presume to say whether they will vote in the numbers that they did in 2008.

The best that you can do is hope that they vote and be grateful if they do.

Even as we speak Obama is begging for the Hispanic vote, the Gay vote, the white female vote, the young white male vote. Even though indications are that 50% of his margin of victory in 2008 came from record high turnout by blacks he totally ignores this block.

If black turnout reverts to what is was in 2004 Obama is in deep trouble.

You are right that nobody is talking about "Hope and Change".  There is little reason for many in Obama's base to hope and certainly very little change, and even Obama knows this.

You are both the same.  In love with your candidate thinking that he totally deserves victory and feeling sure that their victory will have significant impact.

The reality is that we have two weak candidates.  I support Obama, not that I think that he is so good.  Clearly he displays little ability to move the economy beyond its current morass.

I just happen to think that Romney is a liar and a flip flopper and I fear that he will be another Bush.

Two bitter pills.  Obama will neither heal the nation nor kill it.  Romney will send the nation straight to the ER and I do not think that the doctors there will be able to save it.

Not a ringing endorsement of either.  Just a realization that I prefer the man who does nothing FOR me (Obama) than the one who will do something TO me (Romney).

Its like deciding who you want, Ramotar or Granger.  Matter of opinion and neither worth much.

Kari I dont know if this emphasis was to show that Obama is in a strong position.  To the contrary it merely shows that Ohio, a state where Obama should be trouncing Romney due to his auto bailout, his singularly most effective economic action, and where unemployment is very low, he is in a statistical tie.

What does this say about states like FL where unemployment is through the roof, or NV, and CO where his victory  is 100% dependent on how many Hispanics decide to vote...especially when polling shows that tyhey have less interest in the election than do either blacks or whites?

You can all but write off VA and NC if black voter turn out reverts to 2004 levels as it was the high black turn out that earned Obama his voictories in two conservative states which havent supported a Democrat since 1980, Jimmy Carter, a conservative Southerner, being the last one.

I suggest that you and Rev Al take a chill pill and if you really want to help your candidates, go to OH and ensure that those who arent sure whther they ought to vote or not, do.

Kari,  I will be curious to find out, if Obama loses and its a 40% probability that he will, who will you blame?

OBAMA +5 IN PENNSYLVANIA...Rasmussen

O 51% R 46%

* Obama(incumbent) is over 50 ---margin of error is +/- 4.5%---so clearly Obama is on his way to winning Pennsylvania.

QUESTION:

How is Obama polling in the other battleground states ? If he above or below 50 ?

KEEP THIS IN MIND!

If the incumbent is polling below 50 in any of the battleground states---the challenger will nail him on election day.

Rev

Rev,

He is also up in Ohio, the one also that really counts.

Romney?

Doan worry it ain't gonna happen, it can't happen.

Did you say there is a 40% probability Obama will lose ?

YOU ARE CLEARLY MATHEMATICALLY CHALLENGED.

* With Obama, the incumbent, polling around 47% in the RCP poll of polls his chances of winning on Nov 6th is slim or none.

* With the 3 debates finished--there is no further gain in support for the incumbent---historically this has been the case for incumbents polling below 50---it's the challenger who will add a few points---mainly undecideds.

THE REV'S FORESIGHT, HIS MATHEMATICAL ADEPTNESS AND HIS ANALYTICAL SUPERIORITY WILL BE REVEALED ON NOV 6TH.hahaha

Romney 52/53% Obama 46/47%

Romney winning 52/53% of the popular vote will likely translate into 300+ electoral votes.

Rev

Skeldon:

Most polls show a tie in Ohio---Rasmussen has it 48/48 and Suffolk polling has it 47/47

But there is a TIME magazine poll which has Obama leading by 5 points(O 49% R 44%).

THAT TIME POLL IS A JUNK POLL.

Here is why:

* They have Romney leading independents by 15%(53/48)

* And they are using a +D9 sample---they are assuming that the the turnout for Obama in 2012 will be greater and more enthusiastic than in 2008.

Once again--the Time poll showing Obama with a 5 point lead is a JUNK POLL.

ALL OHIO POLLS HAVE THE INCUMBENT(Obama) UNDER 50%---That is bad news for Obama.

Remember, Romney leads among independents in all the polls---and Republicans are more enthusiastic than Democrats---and the incumbent is polling under 50% in all polls---that is bad news for the incumbent.

The Rev predicts Romney will win Ohio---easy/peasey.

Rev

It won't be easy peasy. The BBC poll of polls has Obama leading. 

Rev dont worry yourself.  Obama has PA,MI and NV.  He is ahead in OH, though can be beaten.  CO and IA are true toss up states.  I concede VA and NC to you, maybe FL as well.

All  Of these polls show statistical dead lock.  All that matters at this point is who shows up to vote.

Likely that many of the undecideds will give this election a pass as if they dont know yet I dont know what more info that need.

Your mathematic nonsense is no more factual than your uplifting racist dogma from KKK sites.

The race is a statistical tie.  Obama has a slight edge in OH.  He has fewer electoral votes to reach 270 so he has a greater probability pof victory.

This assumes you racists dont pull out your dirty tricks (already telling blacks that Democrats vote on Nov 7, that trick was tried before and I dont know who fell for it then), and that blacks and Hispanics and young whites show up to vote.

As neither you nor Kari cannot say for sure who will vote you cannot say for sure who will win...or whether we will have so close a race that once again we have a voting scandal in FL or OH.

Why dont you just say that you hope it will not happen.  Look at Gore vs that idiot Bush.  With the GOP controlling the House and the Supreme Court you know how that will end if it gets there.

carib:

You sound angry and frustrated. That's understandable-- your hero Obama is guaranteed to lose on Nov 6th.

Now! Did you say the race is a statistical tie(margin of error) ? You are right!

Check these national polls:

R 50% O 46%...Rasmussen

 

R 50% O 47%...Gallup

 

R 50% O 47%...ABC/WASH Po

FACT:

* The incumbent is polling at 47% while the challenger has reached 50% in 3 national polls.

* WHAT THAT 47% SAYS IS THE INCUMBENT(OBAMA) IS IN EXTREME DANGER OF LOSING!

RE: OHIO

According to RCP Obama has a 2.1 point lead:

O 47.9% R 45.8%

Once again, the incumbent is not at 50% in Ohio---at 47.9% incumbent Obama is in danger of losing Ohio.

Rev

carib:

RE: PENNSYLVANIA (O +4.8)

O 50.0% R 45.2%

I will concede Pensylvania---according to RCP, Obama has reached the magic 50% marker.

RE: NEVADA (O +2.8)

O 49.6% R 46.8%(RCP)

The incumbent Obama has still not reached the magic 50--but he polled at 50 or more in the last 3 polls so I will concede Nevada.

RE: MICHIGAN (O +4.0)

O 48.8% R 44.8%

Again, the incumbent Obama has not cracked the 50% marker---he is not even at 49---but the odds favor him right now.

RE: COLORADO (R +0.4)

O 47.8% R 48.2%

The incumbent O is in extreme danger of losing Colorado---he is below 48 on RCP.

RE: IOWA (O +2.0)

O 48.8% R 46.8%

Once again, the incumbent O has not yet cracked 50---he is not even at 49.

RE: FLORIDA (R +1.7%)

O 47.0% R 48.7%

The incumbent Obama is in extreme danger of losing Florida--he is below 48% on RCP.

RE: OHIO (O +2.1%)

O 47.9% R 45.8%

The incumbent Obama is in extreme danger of losing Ohio---he is polling below 48% on RCP.

CONCLUSION:

From the above, the challenger is certain to take Ohio, Florida, Colorado.

The incumbent will win Pensylvania and most likely Nevada.

Michigan and Iowa are toss ups right now.

Rev

This you can glean from the above:

1. The Rev Al believes in his illusion and thinks racism is an honorable trait
2. CaribJ is an eternal pessimist who sees nothing uplifting in life
3. Kari brings a reasoned perspective to these two troubled souls
4. The only thing to note is that Obama will be re-elected President and there will be one conservative Supreme Court Justice who will retire during his 2nd term and he will appoint a centrist Judge. The TEA party will be a foot note.

OBAMA WILL WIN A SECOND TERM, THE BIG GUNS WILL BE OUT NEXT WEEK --CLINTON  ETC.  ROMNEY'S BAIN CAPITAL IS UNDER INVESTIGATION, 12DAYS IS A LONG TIME, THINGS WILL CHANGE, POLLS DON'T WIN ELECTION, OBAMA WINS.

You know what can change? The October surprise? Romney's tax returns for the years he hasn't released showing little or no taxes paid?

Daily Breakdown: Obama's Lead Persists In Ohio, Nevada, and Wisconsin Polls

Nate Cohen of the NY Times

With just 12 days to go, every day without signs of Romney making gains in Ohio, Wisconsin, or Nevada counts as a win for the president. Obama has held a persistent lead in all three states and could combine to provide the president with 271 electoral votes, enough to win reelection.

New SurveyUSA and Time polls showed Obama maintaining a 3 to 5 point edge in the critical state of Ohio, roughly consistent with Obama's lead in similar polls conducting live interviews with cell phone-only voters. Rasmussen showed a tied race (down one point from the Obama lead they've shown since August) but it's hard to make much of a one-point movement. Both PPP and Rasmussen showed Obama at or above 50 percent in Nevada, and Mason Dixon showed Obama up by 2 points in Wisconsin. That's one of Obama's weakest results in the Badger State, but it comes from a firm that has tended to produce Republican-leaning results (recently including Romney+7 in Florida).

While all three states are close, Obama's advantage in all three states is unusually consistent and quite clear. In fact, there's a case that Obama has never trailed in any of them, even when Obama couldn't buy a lead in a national telephone survey for a whole week following the first presidential debate. Romney could only manage one point leads in three Republican-leaning polls of Ohio conducted over the weekend immediately following the first presidential debate, while plenty of other polls showed Obama retaining a lead. In Wisconsin, Obama has hit or exceeded 49 percent in just about every survey since the Walker recall and Obama only trailed in two polls conducted immediately after Ryan was selected as his running mate. Obama's lead is even more consistent in Nevada, where Romney hasn't led in a single poll deemed worthy of the RCP average (although he did trail in a partisan poll). For historical comparison, check out the RCP averages from 2004 in Florida and Ohio.

And Obama maintains credible alternatives if any of these states flip over the next twelve days. If Romney won Nevada, Obama could easily counter with Iowa, although the state is somewhat under-polled. If Obama lost Wisconsin, he could compensate with both Iowa and New Hampshire. And even if Obama lost Ohio, Romney would still need to block Obama's paths through Colorado, Virginia, and Florida. Romney would probably lose the election if Obama carried Colorado or Virginia, but the two states are coin-flips and three polls (admittedly partisan or of middling quality) from yesterday showed Obama leading in the Commonwealth. Romney more clearly leads in Florida, but his advantage in the Sunshine State isn't any larger than Obama's in Ohio. Here's one stark hypothetical: given Obama's many paths to 270, there's a case that Obama would still be a favorite, if Romney was suddenly assured of victory in Ohio.

The national polls continue to show a tight race and are cause for real pause. Yes, the state polls have trumped the national polls before, but many of the national surveys are conducted by stronger polling firms with more rigorous methods than the cheap surveys that swarm the battleground states. Pollsters have exhibited strong house effects so far this cycle and there aren't many state polling firms, making it harder to differentiate, say, Marist's house effect from methodological differences with automated surveys. Put differently: wouldn't you really like to know whether the NBC/WSJ national pollsters would show results similar to NBC/WSJ/Marist? But every time an additional pollster contacting cell-phones weighs-in on Ohio and shows Obama leading by 3 or 5 points, like CNN, Fox News, SurveyUSA, and Time have since the first debate, it becomes more clear that the Obama's modest advantage in Ohio isn't just due to a few Obama-friendly state pollsters.

Perhaps the best news for Romney is that Obama is still beneath 49 percent in the Buckeye State, where Obama is swimming upstream against a traditional Republican-lean and unfavorable demographics. But even if Romney has a path to victory in Ohio, he's starting to run out of time. Every day without a shift in Ohio, Wisconsin, or Nevada is a day lost in his pursuit of the presidency.

The economy will not change, jobs report will be bad, that's Obama's albatros.  Everything else is a distraction, Romney tax return is as dead as the Birther issue.

The polls are misleading. Media scare tactics. Obama will win re-election.

Lesley Bruce. 

Today's weekly unemployment claims, as reported by Bloomberg News.

The number of Americans filing first-time applications for unemployment benefits fell last week, returning to a level that shows the labor market is making limited progress.

Jobless claims decreased by 23,000 to 369,000 in the week ended Oct. 20 from a revised 392,000 the prior period, the Labor Department reported today in Washington.

The data signals employers are seeing enough demand to maintain existing staffing levels even amid growing concern about a slowing global economy and the looming fiscal cliff of tax increases and government spending cuts that will take effect in 2013.

Today's Commerce Department report on Durable Goods shipment

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in September increased $19.6 billion or 9.9 percent to $218.2 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced
today. This increase, up four of the last five months, followed a 13.1 percent August decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 2.0 percent.

Excluding defense, new orders increased 9.1 percent.

Transportation equipment, up five of the last six months, had the largest increase, $16.8 billion or 31.7 percent to $69.6 billion.

Shipments
Shipments of manufactured durable goods in September, up two of the last three months, increased $1.8 billion or 0.8 percent to $224.2 billion. This
followed a 2.9 percent August decrease.

Transportation equipment, also up two of the last three months, had the largest increase, $0.8 billion or 1.3 percent to $64.7 billion. This followed an 8.0 percent August decrease.

Unfilled Orders
Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in September, up three of the last four months, increased $1.6 billion or 0.2 percent to $980.8 billion. This
increase followed a 1.7 percent August decrease.

Transportation equipment, also up three of the last four months, had the largest increase, $4.9 billion or 0.9 percent to $574.5 billion.

Inventories
Inventories of manufactured durable goods in September, up thirty-two of the last thirty-three months, increased $0.9 billion or 0.3 percent to $372.9 billion.
This was at the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.6 percent August increase.

Transportation equipment, also up thirty-two of the last thirty-three months, had the largest increase, $0.4 billion or 0.4 percent to $112.6 billion. This was also at the highest level since the series was first published on a
NAICS basis.

Capital Goods
Nondefense new orders for capital goods in September increased $13.7 billion or 23.7 percent to $71.4 billion.

Shipments increased $1.0 billion or 1.4 percent to $70.1 billion. Unfilled orders increased $1.3 billion or 0.2 percent to $582.1 billion. Inventories increased $0.9 billion or 0.5 percent to $172.8 billion.

Defense new orders for capital goods in September increased $2.7 billion or 43.7 percent to $8.7 billion.

Shipments increased $0.4 billion or 4.7 percent to $8.5 billion. Unfilled orders increased $0.2 billion or 0.1 percent to $165.8 billion. Inventories decreased $0.5 billion or 2.1 percent to $21.1 billion.

Revised August Data
Revised seasonally adjusted August figures for all manufacturing industries were: new orders, $453.2 billion (revised from $452.8 billion); shipments, $477.0 billion (revised from $476.9 billion); unfilled orders, $979.2 billion (revised from $978.8 billion); and total inventories, $611.5 billion (revised from $611.8 billion).

Nate Cohen will be mortified when Romney wins the presidency on Nov 6th.

Nate says the best news for Romney is Obama is still beneath 49% in Ohio---actually Obama is beneath 48% according to Real Clear Politics which has averaged the last 8 polls taken in Ohio between Oct 17th and Oct 23rd. And like the Rev pointed out:

AN INCUMBENT PRESIDENT POLLING BELOW 48% IS IN EXTREME DANGER OF LOSING.

Obama averages 47.9% in Ohio--RCP.

ANOTHER THING:

Most state polls conducted by the media(cnn, cbs, time, etc) are CRAP---the Time poll has Obama leading by 5 points in Ohio---total crap.

HERE ARE 3 RECENT POLLS IN OHIO CONDUCTED BY REPUTABLE POLLING COMPANIES:

O 48% R 48%.....Rasmussen

O 47% R 47%....Suffolk

O 48% R 48%....Angus Reid Polling

THOSE 3 POLLS SHOW A DEAD HEAT IN OHIO.

And once again, with the incumbent at 48 or lower---that is a danger sign---he will lose the state of Ohio.

==============

RE: FLORIDA, VIRGINIA, OHIO, COLORADO

With Obama polling under 48 in these 4 states---you can place all 4 in the Romney win column.

Rev

This you can glean from the above:

1. The Rev Al believes in his illusion and thinks racism is an honorable trait
2. The only thing to note is that Obama will be re-elected President.

You are dead wrong karimullah---dead wrong.

THE REV BELIEVES NUMBERS DON'T LIE!

And the numbers clearly reveal that the incumbent, Barack Obama, will experience a hugely embarrassing repudiation by the American people on November 6th.

ROMNEY 52/53% OBAMA 46/47% = 300+ ELECTORAL VOTES

Rev