Reasons Obama will not win the Presidency.

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Former Member

quote:
Originally posted by Nuff:
Let him keep wishing for Obama to fail ... I will be back on Nov 6th to laugh and make fun out of him when Obama and the democrats retain power.

Nuffie:

If the Republicans are foolish enough to pick that radical, fanatical, extremist zealot Rick Santorum as their candidate, then you can start laughing from now--Hussein will be re-elected.

Santorum says, "I dont think God will continue to bless America as long as we continue to kill 1.2 million children every year."

THIS MAN IS A NUT CASE---no way this psycho defeats Hussein--NO WAY!

What a shame!

100 MILLION AMERICANS WILL BE ON FOOD STAMPS IF HUSSEIN WINS ANOTHER TERM.

Oh well---they deserve to punish if they re-elect Hussein.

quote:
Nuff wrote:
Just like he backs the PPP he backs the GOP ... he loves to back losers.

Nuffster:

The Rev is extremely disappointed by the shallowness of the PNC/AFC supporters on this forum.

You need a jolt to your brain Nuffie---in case you forgot:

THE PPP WON THE GUYANA ELECTION IN 2011.

And by the way, if the US elections were held today---HUSSEIN WOULD LOSE.

Check the magical number:

Obama's Approval: 44%

Link" gallup daily tracking

Hussein needs to be at 49% or higher to win.

Rev

2/21/123:25 PM

Former Member

quote:
Originally posted by Rev Al:
Hussein needs to be at 49% or higher to win.

Rev

Approval has nothing to do with voting results. Approval rate doesn't mean people will automatically vote for any and every other candidate running against Obama.

Congress current approval rate is 15%

Approval is meaningless unless you measure it against something else.

The key is that Obama in recent polls wins against all the current GOP contenders.

2/21/124:08 PM

Former Member

Just to show you i am not making it up. In fact Congress approval rating is 6%. Yes 6% and Obama's reelections chances are going up

~~~~~~~~~~
Read it and weep!

2/21/124:20 PM

Former Member

quote:
Originally posted by Nuff:
Approval has nothing to do with voting results.

Nuff:

I want you to read slowly and carefully---pay attention and learn.

You know the Rev's mantra:

Check this Nuff:

No president with an approval rating of 49% or more on election day has ever lost an election.

You got that ?

quote:

HERE IS THE PROOF:

YEAR....CANDIDATE......APPROVAL....RESULT

1956....Eisenhower......70.........WON

1964....Johnson..........67.........WON

1940....Roosevelt........62.........WON

1972....Nixon..............57.........WON

1984....Reagan...........57.........WON

1996....Clinton............55.........WON

1948....Truman...........50.........WON

2004....G.W.Bush.........49.........WON

1976....Ford...............48.........LOST

1992....G.H.Bush.........39.........LOST

1980....Carter............31.........LOST

=========================

Once again:

THE APPROVAL NUMBERS DON'T LIE:

No president with an approval rating of 49% or more on election day has ever lost an election.

If the elections were held today:

Obama Approval: 44%

Obama would lose!

Link: gallup daily tracking

Now, if on November 6th Obama's approval rating is 49% or higher he will definitely win---period, paragraph, end of story.

NO NEED TO THANK THE REV FOR THAT LESSON NUFFSTER.

Rev

2/21/124:44 PM

Former Member

Dude those numbers are meaningless when the competition put up by the GOP sucks!

Do you see the issue at hand. The GOP has a lackluster bunch of candidates.

tell me who are you picking in the GOP to defeat Obama. Just give me a name.

2/21/124:46 PM

Former Member

quote:
Originally posted by Nuff:
Dude those numbers are meaningless when the competition put up by the GOP sucks!

Nuff:

The Rev hates to say it, but you are a DUNCE---plain and simple!

You absolutely did not comprehend the post above!

THOSE PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL NUMBERS WERE REAL!

Go and read that post again:

No president with an approval rating of 49% or higher on election day has ever lost an election.

If Barack Hussein Obama has an approval rating of 49% or higher on election day he will win--plain and simple.

Good Jesus Lord!

The shallowness and dunceness of you PNC supporters.

WHICH 3RD RATE UNIVERSITY DID YOU ATTEND NUFF ?

Ask for a refund.

Rev

2/21/124:53 PM

KariSenior Member

An approval rating in February of an election year has significance for an incumbent's re-election only in so far as its trending. Obama's approval curve is upward - that's a fact mathematically, statistically and every other which way.

You see that 44% approval rating being reported in February is not a product a set of circumstances that will be different from November. Before the November elections the President will be in mid-season form. Now he's Jeremy Lin in January.

The argument being advanced about approval rating is meaningless. And one can see the statistics about an incumbent's approval rating being below 49% and losing a re-election. I have no argument with that statistical fact.

All we hear now is "Hussein"; "Socialist", "fighting more wars", and any number of garbage. These will not make Obama lose the Nov 2012 elections fellahs. The GOP best hopes skipped the 2012 cycle because they know Obama is unbeatable. He is likable, inherited a mess and the trend is upward for economic outlook. Jeb carries the Bush name too early in 2012. Haley Barber's wife knows of his skeletons in their closet. Mitch Daniels' wife does not want to answer questions about why she had left him. Chris Christie feels he's too green and is not Obama circa 2008. This crop and those on the sidelines like Sarah Palin are basically giving America a clownish reality show.

You can rail all you want on this forum about what Obama is, but your head has to be in a sand to not know that Obama wins 2012 going away. The debt ceiling fight in summer 2011 was the American public's last straw. Obama went on the post-partisan, politician-like offensive in September 2011 with his jobs speech in Kansas. He set up the Congressional Republicans beautifully over the extension of the tax cuts and unemployment benefits. He's playing the Congressional GOP like a tune while having a laugh at the clowns in the Primaries. Santorum is a medieval politician; no one believes anything Romney says or does; Newt is a fat blow-hard whose obituary is already written; and Ron Paul is way out in left field.

The 2010 mid-terms saw less than 20% of the electorate vote and a class of Republican TEA party freshmen over their heads in politics came to Washington to pour sour milk over Senate Minority leader Mitch O'Connel and Speaker Boehner. These lunatics have thrown the GOP into chaos. But mark my words - the summer 2011 debt ceiling debate is a watershed moment.

So wail on Obama haters!!!!

2/21/126:33 PM

Former Member

quote:
Originally posted by Henry:
quote:
Originally posted by yuji22:
Al, it looks like the Obama magic is working. The Republicans are doing more harm than good by opposing him on important issues.

Can you give one example of an important issue where the Republicans oppose Obama?

I know you said one, but here's two - Healthcare and Taxes.

2/21/127:10 PM

Former Member

quote:
Originally posted by Rev Al:
quote:
Originally posted by Nuff:
Approval has nothing to do with voting results.

Nuff:

I want you to read slowly and carefully---pay attention and learn.

You know the Rev's mantra:

Check this Nuff:

No president with an approval rating of 49% or more on election day has ever lost an election.

You got that ?

quote:

HERE IS THE PROOF:

YEAR....CANDIDATE......APPROVAL....RESULT

1956....Eisenhower......70.........WON

1964....Johnson..........67.........WON

1940....Roosevelt........62.........WON

1972....Nixon..............57.........WON

1984....Reagan...........57.........WON

1996....Clinton............55.........WON

1948....Truman...........50.........WON

2004....G.W.Bush.........49.........WON

1976....Ford...............48.........LOST

1992....G.H.Bush.........39.........LOST

1980....Carter............31.........LOST

=========================

Once again:

THE APPROVAL NUMBERS DON'T LIE:

No president with an approval rating of 49% or more on election day has ever lost an election.

If the elections were held today:

Obama Approval: 44%

Obama would lose!

Link: gallup daily tracking

Now, if on November 6th Obama's approval rating is 49% or higher he will definitely win---period, paragraph, end of story.

NO NEED TO THANK THE REV FOR THAT LESSON NUFFSTER.

Rev

Is it impossible to win the elections with an approval rating of less than 49%? Yes or no.

2/21/127:11 PM

Former Member

quote:
Originally posted by André:
quote:
Originally posted by Henry:
quote:
Originally posted by yuji22:
Al, it looks like the Obama magic is working. The Republicans are doing more harm than good by opposing him on important issues.

Can you give one example of an important issue where the Republicans oppose Obama?

I know you said one, but here's two - Healthcare and Taxes.

O rly? Obama pushed a healthcare plan which is a giant gift to the insurance companies -- exactly what the Repubs would do themselves, but they couldn't be happier to see Obama stepping up to take the blame from angry consumers. And, Obama kept the tax cuts for millionaires -- I'm sure the Repubs were deeply disappointed about that one.

2/21/127:45 PM

Former Member

quote:
Originally posted by Henry:
quote:
Originally posted by André:
quote:
Originally posted by Henry:
quote:
Originally posted by yuji22:
Al, it looks like the Obama magic is working. The Republicans are doing more harm than good by opposing him on important issues.

Can you give one example of an important issue where the Republicans oppose Obama?

I know you said one, but here's two - Healthcare and Taxes.

O rly? Obama pushed a healthcare plan which is a giant gift to the insurance companies -- exactly what the Repubs would do themselves, but they couldn't be happier to see Obama stepping up to take the blame from angry consumers. And, Obama kept the tax cuts for millionaires -- I'm sure the Repubs were deeply disappointed about that one.

The Republicans are completely opposed to Obama's Healthcare Plan. You have to be living on another planet to not know this. How many Republicans voted for it?

Obama has proposed over and over again to raise taxes for the wealthiest Americans in complete contrast to the Republicans.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/...gIQA20iu9Q_blog.html

Posted at 06:30 AM ET, 02/13/2012
Get started ‘On’ Feb. 13: Obama to propose higher taxes on wealthy, consumer confidence slides
By J.D. Harrison

Obama’s budget to include higher taxes for wealthy: President Obama on Monday will propose a multi-trillion-dollar government budget that seeks to impose higher taxes on the rich to help reduce the deficit. The budget’s broad themes, according to a draft outline viewed by The Wall Street Journal, contrast sharply with Republican proposals for smaller government and lower tax revenue.

2/21/128:00 PM

Former Member

Obama has built an impressive record of making public announcements in one direction, and then taking action in precisely the opposite direction. Examples: his pledge to shut down Gitmo (I don't recall whether he also pledged to reduce illegal surveillance on US citizens or stop assassinating them without due process.) He recently made a bombastic speech about holding big bankers accountable, while simultaneously trying to force a deal upon state Attorneys General which would exempt the banks from prosecution. And, the Repubs are equally hypocritical and self-serving in their public pronouncements. And the media are awesomely corrupt, yet you apparently take their spin as gospel.

2/21/129:26 PM

Former Member

quote:
Originally posted by Henry:
Obama has built an impressive record of making public announcements in one direction, and then taking action in precisely the opposite direction. Examples: his pledge to shut down Gitmo (I don't recall whether he also pledged to reduce illegal surveillance on US citizens or stop assassinating them without due process.) He recently made a bombastic speech about holding big bankers accountable, while simultaneously trying to force a deal upon state Attorneys General which would exempt the banks from prosecution. And, the Repubs are equally hypocritical and self-serving in their public pronouncements. And the media are awesomely corrupt, yet you apparently take their spin as gospel.

Now you run off on a tangent about spin and the media and everything else under the sun except the two that I challenged you on. I mentioned two of Obama's specific policies to which the Republicans are diametrically opposed. You have yet to show me how the Republicans have the same policies as Obama when it comes to healthcare and taxes.

You should be the last person on this board to mention taking spin as gospel. After all, you belong to the LaRouche Cult. Enough said.

2/21/129:48 PM

Former Member

quote:
Originally posted by André:
You have yet to show me how the Republicans have the same policies as Obama when it comes to healthcare and taxes.

Au contraire, I showed you just fine. However, for public consumption, both sides ostentatiously proclaim that they are fighting each other.

2/21/129:52 PM

Former Member

quote:
Originally posted by Henry:
quote:
Originally posted by André:
You have yet to show me how the Republicans have the same policies as Obama when it comes to healthcare and taxes.
Au contraire, I showed you just fine. However, for public consumption, both sides ostentatiously proclaim that they are fighting each other.

So tell me how many Republicans voted for Obamacare and why is it that they are trying to repeal it in many courts across the country? You must have been asleep for the last 4 years if you think that the Republicans and Obama have the same Healthcare policies.

Apparently your comprehension skills are not that sharp either. Please ask someone to explain to you what this means -

http://www.washingtonpost.com/...gIQA20iu9Q_blog.html

Posted at 06:30 AM ET, 02/13/2012
Get started ‘On’ Feb. 13: Obama to propose higher taxes on wealthy, consumer confidence slides
By J.D. Harrison

Obama’s budget to include higher taxes for wealthy: President Obama on Monday will propose a multi-trillion-dollar government budget that seeks to impose higher taxes on the rich to help reduce the deficit. The budget’s broad themes, according to a draft outline viewed by The Wall Street Journal, contrast sharply with Republican proposals for smaller government and lower tax revenue.

2/21/1210:01 PM

Former Member

quote:
Originally posted by Kari:
An approval rating in February of an election year has significance for an incumbent's re-election only in so far as its trending. Obama's approval curve is upward - that's a fact mathematically, statistically and every other which way.

Kari Bhai:

You obviously put some time and thought into your 6:33PM post, so the Rev will respond in a circumspect manner.

RE: OBAMA'S CURRENT 44% APPROVAL

You are absolutely correct--in February of an election year---it's the trend that matters.

What we have noticed in the past 6 months is that as the unemployment rate has dropped President Obama's approval rating has increased.

HERE IS A SNAP SHOT OF THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AND OBAMA'S APPROVAL GOING BACK TO AUGUST 2011:

MONTH....UNEMPLOYMENT----OBAMA'S APPROVAL

Aug 2011.......9.1%........40%

Sep 2011.......9.0%........42%

Oct 2011.......8.9%........43%

Nov 2011.......8.7%........44%

Dec 2011.......8.5%........46%

Jan 2012.......8.3%........46%

Like I said--It is crystal clear--as the unemployment rate has dropped the past 6 months(from 9.1% in August 2011 to 8.3% in Jan 2012) the President's approval rating has increased---and in Feb 2012 the President's approval rating hit 49%.

quote:
kari wrote:
The argument being advanced about approval rating is meaningless.

The argument being advanced is that if the President's approval rating on election day---Nov 6th--is 49% or higher then he is guaranteed to win re-election--nothing meaningless about that argument.

You saw the stats above---President's going back to Eisenhower in 1956---whose approval rating rating was 49% or higher on election day always won.

As of today, Feb 21st, Obama's approval rating is 44%---I agree--that is irrelevant---the question is what has to happen between now and November for Obama's approval to rise from 44% to 49% or higher.

Well, we saw that as the unemployment rate dipped from 9.1% back in August 2011 to 8.3% in Jan 2012---Obama's approval rose from 40% to a high of 46% in Jan 2012---and it hit a high of 49% in February 2012.

So clearly if the unemployment rate continues to trend down from the current 8.3% and is much lower by November, then clearly President Obama's approval rating will benefit---and he will likely be at 50% or higher--re-election guaranteed.

quote:
kari wrote:
You can rail all you want on this forum about what Obama is, but your head has to be in a sand to not know that Obama wins 2012 going away.

No one is saying Obama is guaranteed to lose in 2012---that would be foolish.

Clinton advisor James Carville coined the phrase--"it's the economy stupid"

If going into the Nov election the economy continues to improve---then Obama is guaranteed re-election.

The Rev is currently paying attention to 2 economic indicators---these will impact on President Obama's approval rating in November:

1. CONSUMER SPENDING

2. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

If American consumers become more confident as the year moves ahead--we'll find consumer spending will increase---and since consumption represents 70+% of the GDP---we'll have increased economic growth---expansion of the GDP will mean businesses will hire more---and as a result the unemployment rate will drop.

HOW THE PRESIDENT WINS RE-ELECTION IN NOVEMBER 2012

It will come down to the economic well being of the American voter. If going into November, consumer confidence is up---then consumer spending will be on the rise---and then clearly the unemployment rate will keep dropping. A rise in consumer confidence and consumer spending and a drop in the unemployment rate guarantees that President Obama's approval rating will be 50% or higher on election day--re-election guaranteed.

QUESTION:

What happens if the consumer confidence is flat or dips going into November ? It means consumer spending will be flat or will dip and that means the unemployment rate will not be dropping or trending down going into the Nov 2012 election.

Can President Obama have a 49% or higher approval rating if consumer spending is flat and the unemployment rate is rising going into the 2012 election ?

WHAT SAYS YOU KARI BHAI ?

Rev

2/21/1210:01 PM

KariSenior Member

It didn't take me long to write that response, as you don't have to think these things up.

Speaking about the re-election prospects of an incumbent President in February of an election year betrays a resignation that the other party's nominee has no chance. It means that one must find something that gives the challenger hoe. Thus we wheel our the Reverend Wright (as Santorum did today as he continues to talk about Obama's foreign theology - another coded expression). Then we cart out the birther nonsense. Really the GOP has nothing....nothing....on this President.

The Fall of 2008 was the start of the full effect of the financial collapse and the mortgage crisis that wiped out over $7 trillion of wealth asset from the American consumer, including home equity. The economy was in the throes of a restructuring not seen since the industrial revolution. Globalization just rendered about 50 million American workers useless, and in need of re-educating skills needed for the next phase of the US economy. Detroit was becoming a wasteland and when Americas bought 15 million cares annually in 2009 it dropped to 5.7 million. That's a lot of air being sucked out of the economy. America was embroiled in two wars that seem endless and with no strategic coherence. Japan had a Tsunami and an economic downturn as a consequence. The Arab world roiled in its spring of democratic movement and with the oil economy that was unforgiving to gas prices at the pumps.

Those are some of the things America remembers as the things Obama had to lead them out of. If you ask me, in spite of a Republican party that throws up road blocks at every step of the way, Obama has acquitted himself well. Osama bin Laden is dead and you don't hear much about Al Qaeda and waterboarding. America is now looked upon as a partner other countries can deal with as the Iran sanctions were voted on by all including Russia and China. The Iraq war is over and Iran hasn't taken it over. The Taliban is now cooperating with Karzai and American troops are coming home finally. Detroit's engines are rolling again and over a million jobs were saved. The last 23 months have seen private sector job growth and the Dow hit 13,000 today.

"Race to the top" is changing the educational opportunities of the next generation. The Health care industry will see a correction from the steep premium hikes ahead of the full implementation of the Affordable Care Act that is flawed but in years to come will be seen as a seminal event (much like Social Security was maligned in the thirties).

There were some mistakes along the way. Obama is a President who should have used the 14th Amendment to raise the debt ceiling last year unilaterally. He should have led instead of play nice to Republicans. All that changed last September though. The 2009 stimulus should have been bigger and instead of cutting deals with some of his own Blue Dog Democrats in the House, Nanci Pelosi, Harry Reid and Rahm Emmanuel should have done a better job of exercising the mandates from 2008. You have to fill that aggregate demand gap caused by the wiping out of trillions of dollars of wealth assets, before you can focus on long-term deficits. Geitner did the right thing to tell S & P to take a hike when they came to the White House to say they would lower the ranking of US Bonds not because of economics but because of politics.

You look at 2008 and look at now and see how Americans feel after the 2003 - 2008 crap shoot caused grief in 2009, 2009 and part of 2010. People are hurting yes, but they feel less despair and more hope.

And the above took me less time that you could smoke a cigarette. You don't have to make this stuff up.

2/21/1210:36 PM

Former Member

quote:
Originally posted by André:
Apparently your comprehension skills are not that sharp either. Please ask someone to explain to you what this means -

http://www.washingtonpost.com/...gIQA20iu9Q_blog.html

Posted at 06:30 AM ET, 02/13/2012
Get started ‘On’ Feb. 13: Obama to propose higher taxes on wealthy, consumer confidence slides
By J.D. Harrison

Allow to explain one more time that I have long since abandoned the idea that there is a meaningful connection between Obama's public pronouncements, and what he actually does.

2/21/1210:48 PM

Former Member

quote:
Originally posted by Kari:
Osama bin Laden is dead and you don't hear much about Al Qaeda and waterboarding.

Now that you mention it, Al Qaeda was in the news just the other day:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/w...3061264/1?csp=34news

So the US and Britain are once again working with Al Qaeda against a common foe (actually, this happened in Libya as well.) It's just like old times!

2/21/1210:53 PM

Former Member

quote:
Originally posted by Kari:
It didn't take me long to write that response, as you don't have to think these things up.

Speaking about the re-election prospects of an incumbent President in February of an election year betrays a resignation that the other party's nominee has no chance. It means that one must find something that gives the challenger hoe. Thus we wheel our the Reverend Wright (as Santorum did today as he continues to talk about Obama's foreign theology - another coded expression). Then we cart out the birther nonsense. Really the GOP has nothing....nothing....on this President.

The Fall of 2008 was the start of the full effect of the financial collapse and the mortgage crisis that wiped out over $7 trillion of wealth asset from the American consumer, including home equity. The economy was in the throes of a restructuring not seen since the industrial revolution. Globalization just rendered about 50 million American workers useless, and in need of re-educating skills needed for the next phase of the US economy. Detroit was becoming a wasteland and when Americas bought 15 million cares annually in 2009 it dropped to 5.7 million. That's a lot of air being sucked out of the economy. America was embroiled in two wars that seem endless and with no strategic coherence. Japan had a Tsunami and an economic downturn as a consequence. The Arab world roiled in its spring of democratic movement and with the oil economy that was unforgiving to gas prices at the pumps.

Those are some of the things America remembers as the things Obama had to lead them out of. If you ask me, in spite of a Republican party that throws up road blocks at every step of the way, Obama has acquitted himself well. Osama bin Laden is dead and you don't hear much about Al Qaeda and waterboarding. America is now looked upon as a partner other countries can deal with as the Iran sanctions were voted on by all including Russia and China. The Iraq war is over and Iran hasn't taken it over. The Taliban is now cooperating with Karzai and American troops are coming home finally. Detroit's engines are rolling again and over a million jobs were saved. The last 23 months have seen private sector job growth and the Dow hit 13,000 today.

"Race to the top" is changing the educational opportunities of the next generation. The Health care industry will see a correction from the steep premium hikes ahead of the full implementation of the Affordable Care Act that is flawed but in years to come will be seen as a seminal event (much like Social Security was maligned in the thirties).

There were some mistakes along the way. Obama is a President who should have used the 14th Amendment to raise the debt ceiling last year unilaterally. He should have led instead of play nice to Republicans. All that changed last September though. The 2009 stimulus should have been bigger and instead of cutting deals with some of his own Blue Dog Democrats in the House, Nanci Pelosi, Harry Reid and Rahm Emmanuel should have done a better job of exercising the mandates from 2008. You have to fill that aggregate demand gap caused by the wiping out of trillions of dollars of wealth assets, before you can focus on long-term deficits. Geitner did the right thing to tell S & P to take a hike when they came to the White House to say they would lower the ranking of US Bonds not because of economics but because of politics.

You look at 2008 and look at now and see how Americans feel after the 2003 - 2008 crap shoot caused grief in 2009, 2009 and part of 2010. People are hurting yes, but they feel less despair and more hope.

And the above took me less time that you could smoke a cigarette. You don't have to make this stuff up.

Well said. A very balanced commentary on Obama's presidency. I hope the Rev does not comeback with those same set of numbers again. I agree that things are looking up. The economy is recovering although growth rate is projected to be low. The job numbers have been good. Financial makets have recovered and we may start to see an increase in M&A activity as firms look to deploy large cash balances on their balance sheets. All this bodes well for the president re-election campaign. To be fair in assessing his performance you have to rate his performance based on what he inherted in 2009.

2/21/1211:24 PM

KariSenior Member

The discussion over the President's approval rating in Feb of an election year has to be put in context of his head-to-head against the leading Republican hopefuls. He is thrashing Santorum, Romney and the rest with over 50% to low 40% and less for these clowns.

2/22/128:36 AM

Former Member

Rev ... I won't waste time so getting to the point.

1. Unemployment is trending downwards. The republicans never counted on that happening.

2. The stock market is at its highest in years, only 4 other US presidents have had better stock market performance during a 4 year term. Obama is the 5th such president.

3. US companies are making mad loot, they are just not hiring or would rather hire cheap labor overseas and hide their $$$ overseas rather than pay taxes.

4. Gas prices are going up but oil production is at a record high in the great USofA. The US oil companies prefer to ship their oil overseas to China and India where there is increasing need for energy ... while they raise the price of gas at the pumps at home. The oil companies win either way.

Give Obama credit for 1&2 ... don't blame him for 3&4

OBAMA 2012

2/22/128:45 AM

Former Member

quote:
Originally posted by Kari:
You look at 2008 and look at now and see how Americans feel after the 2003 - 2008 crap shoot caused grief in 2009, 2009 and part of 2010. People are hurting yes, but they feel less despair and more hope.

Kari:

The American economy was in shambles in 2008, and so it easy to see why Obama was elected president.

You said that "people feel less despair and more hope today."

QUESTION:

Is the American economy in better shape today than it was when Obama took over in Jan 2009 ?

Let's look at some indicators:

* UNEMPLOYMENT: When Obama assumed the presidency in Jan 2009 the US unemployment rate was 7.6%---it has been 3 years since Obama has been president and the unemployment rate is now 8.3%---yes, it has trended down from 9.1% in Aug 2011 to 8.3% today---but let's say the unemployment rate in November 2012 is above the 7.6% rate when Obama took over the presidency---how will that affect his approval rating ?

Will President Obama's approval rating be 49% or higher on election day if the unemployment rate is higher than when he assumed office ?

* OIL & GAS PRICE: When Obama took over in Jan 2009---oil was 50 dollars a barrel and gasoline was $1.84 a gallon----today oil is $106 a barrel and gasoline is nearly $4.50 a gallon in NY

The saudis recently cut oil production---and A rise in oil and gas prices negatively impacts the economy and also negatively impacts consumer spending and consumer confidence.

Will President Obama's approval rating be 49% or higher on election day if oil and gas prices negatively impacts consumer confidence and consumer spending ?

Remember--Obama approval 49% or more and he wins re-election!

quote:
kari wrote:
The last 23 months have seen private sector job growth and the Dow hit 13,000 today.

RE: JOBS

As we all know kari---the jobs numbers are improving---the unemployment rate in Aug 2011 was 9.1%; today it's 8.3%.

But most of the shift in the unemployment rate from 9.1% to 8.3% was due not to improvement in the labor market but to the continued drop in the labor force participation rate.

Millions of Americans have given up looking for work---so they are not counted in the unemployment numbers---the unemployment rate would be much higher if those who have given up looking for work were counted.

RE: LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE

When Obama took over in Jan 2009---the labor force participation rate was 65.7%. Today it has dropped to 63.7%

4.2 million Americans have given up looking for work---that's what that drop in the labor force participation rate tells us.

RE: DOW 13,000

Lemme check--OK the Dow closed at 12,965 yesterday.

As you may know kari--the US markets are rigged---manipulated---give thanks to Bernanke and the Fed---what we have seen recently is another liquidity fuelled market run---the fed providing the liquidity.

The Dow has not risen to nearly 13,000 because the US economy is recovering---the Dow's rise has been as a result of the Fed's printing presses.

RE: THE IMPROVING US ECONOMY

I have a simple question---if the US economy is really improving---why does the Obama 2012 budget still run a $1.3 trillion deficit ?

By the way, after 4 years Obama would have piled on nearly 6 trillion in debt---is he the president America wants to get the country back to financial security ?

quote:
kari wrote:
Really the GOP has nothing....nothing....on this President.

To win re-election two things must happen for the President:

1. The economic numbers must be solid/robust in Nov 2012

2. President Obama's approval rating must be 49% or higher on election day

RE: THE KEY INDEPENDENT VOTERS

These are the voters who will decide if Obama wins re-election.

In the 2008 election the majority of independent voters was concerned about the economy----they will have that same concern in Nov 2012.

BOTTOM LINE:

If the unemployment rate is higher than when Obama assumed office in Jan 2009 and if the other economic numbers(consumer confidence, consumer spending rate, gas and oil prices, etc)--if those numbers are weak---then Obama's approval rating will suffer.

CONCLUSION:

Obama can win re-election in Nov 2012---but he will need robust economic numbers and his approval rating must be 49% or higher on election day.

Forget the Republicans---if Obama's approval rating is 49% or higher on election day---good old Jesus can run against him---and good old Jesus will lose.

BUT GOD HELP OBAMA IF HIS APPROVAL RATING IS IN THE MID 40s---it will take a miracle for him to win.

Rev

2/22/129:44 AM

Former Member

Al ... you do humor me.

America is in despair so they appoint a black man.

That is the joke of the day.

Come back on Nov 6th when Obama gets re-elected ... we will talk then.

Have you come up with a GOP candidate to defeat him in 2012 or are you still mulling over your piss poor options?

2/22/129:54 AM

Former Member

quote:
Originally posted by Nuff:
Al ... you do humor me....America is in despair so they appoint a black man.

Bwoy Nuffie:

The Rev would like to remind you of this old french proverb:

"DESPERATE MALADIES REQUIRE DESPERATE REMEDIES."

After Bush and the Republicans destroyed the American economy---the American people desperately reached out to a community organizer.

HAS OBAMA SOLVED THE ECONOMIC CRISIS HE INHERITED ?

That is what the American people will decide in Nov 2012 ?

Rev

2/22/1210:05 AM

Former Member

Al ... Rome wasn't built in a day.

Obama has done pretty good with all the obstruction he has faced the last four years from the republicans.

I mean ... GM made $7B last year ... they hadn't been profitable in YEARS ... Obama bailed them out three years ago while Romney was shouting ... Let them fail.

Look at the stock market. Incredible ... huh! Simply estupendo.

While the UK and europe is in disarray ... the great USofA is still plodding along. Companies are making money, the stock market is booming and unemployment is going down.

Obama 2012 my friend.

2/22/1210:12 AM

Former Member

AL ... one last piece of ELECTION advice

NEVER RUN AGAINST A KENYAN!

2/22/1210:17 AM

KariSenior Member

quote:
Originally posted by Rev Al:

After Bush and the Republicans destroyed the American economy---

HAS OBAMA SOLVED THE ECONOMIC CRISIS HE INHERITED ?

That is what the American people will decide in Nov 2012 ?

Rev

I see a final acknowledgement that the economy at the start of 2009 is worse than it is today ("Bush and the Republicans destroyed the economy")

Obama is well on his way to solving "THE ECONOMIC CRISIS HE INHERITED "

What the American people will decide in Nov 2012 has nothing to do with the obsession, the boner, the hard-on, the religious fervor, with which you speak of a below 49% approval 8 months before the elections.

You are really clutching at straws......desperation has set in.....the GOP has no one who can touch Obama.

2/22/1210:33 AM

Former Member

quote:
Originally posted by Nuff:
Rev ... I won't waste time so getting to the point.

1. Unemployment is trending downwards. The republicans never counted on that happening.

2. The stock market is at its highest in years, only 4 other US presidents have had better stock market performance during a 4 year term. Obama is the 5th such president.

Give Obama credit for 1&2 ...

OBAMA 2012

Nuff:

You will be voting for Obama in Nov 2012; the Rev will be voting for Mitt Romney.

By the way, if the republicans are foolish enough to nominate a religious nut and wacko like Santorum---or a blowhard like Newt---turn off the lights---it's over---Obama will be re-elected.

Anyway it's the independent voters who will decide if Obama is re-elected. If in November 2012 the independents are pleased with the economy then Obama's approval rating will be at a level that guarantees him victory.

RE: UNEMPLOYMENT TRENDING DOWNWARDS

You are right---the numbers dont lie---the trending is down---the unemployment rate in Aug 2011 was 9.1%; in Jan 2012 it was 8.3%.

But did you see the gallup mid Feb unemployment rate they released yesterday---it's 9.0%---a rise from 8.3% in mid January.

OBAMA BETTER PRAY THAT THE BLS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE DOESN'T START TO RISE AGAIN.

RE: THE STOCK MARKET

Again, the number don't lie---lemme check my quote screen---OK---Dow 12959 down 6

When Obama took over in Jan 2009 the Dow was between 8800 and 9000---today its approaching 13,000

We all know that Bernanke and the Fed has manipulated the market---but let's give the credit to Obama.

RE: NOV 2012

For the nth time---if the economic numbers are robust and if Obama's approval is 49% or higher on election day---then he is guaranteed re-election.

Rev

2/22/1210:37 AM

Former Member

quote:
Originally posted by FC:
quote:
Originally posted by Kari:
It didn't take me long to write that response, as you don't have to think these things up.
...

And the above took me less time that you could smoke a cigarette. You don't have to make this stuff up.

Well said. A very balanced commentary on Obama's presidency.

It doesn't take much effort to jot down what you have heard on TV news, and it has a comfortably plausible ring to it, after so many repetitions from the male models on the screen. That's why everyone nodded soberly and agreed about the threat of Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction, the Built-In Stabilizers in the financial system, the Jobless Recovery and the threat of the Iranian Nuclear Bomb.

2/22/1210:40 AM

KariSenior Member

Anyway it's the independent voters who will decide if Obama is re-elected. If in November 2012 the independents are pleased with the economy then Obama's approval rating will be at a level that guarantees him victory.

Have you seen the support for Obama among Independents? That's his strength!

But did you see the gallup mid Feb unemployment rate they released yesterday---it's 9.0%---a rise from 8.3% in mid January.

Gallup is a polling company. The Government provides those figures. Are you nuts?

For the nth time---if the economic numbers are robust and if Obama's approval is 49% or higher on election day---then he is guaranteed re-election.

You are evidently hung up on this 49% thingie. Ever heard of trending? Right track/wrong track?

2/22/1210:44 AM

Former Member

quote:
But did you see the gallup mid Feb unemployment rate they released yesterday---it's 9.0%---a rise from 8.3% in mid January.

always figured you don't have a clue

2/22/1211:01 AM

Former Member

Al ... unfortunately ... the Evangelist and Southern Baptist boys won't vote for Romney based on religious reasons, and the Tea Party won't endorse Romney because he is a flip/flop and not conservative enough. Only a mad irrelevant egotistical buffoon like Donald Trump who is meaningless outside of NY would endorse Romney. Tell me which other BIG NAME REPUBLICANS have endorsed Romney.

As other contenders have dropped out of the GOP field none of their supporters have gone over to Romney's camp instead they back other GOP candidates ... he is stuck at 33% of the vote, He never rises above 35% of the vote. Ask yourself why.

You know what I say is true. The truth hurts. The GOP can't handle a Mormon as their leader. Their base is Catholic and Evangelist. That's why Rick brings up religious faith/social issues to dampen out Romney's squib. If Rick sticks to religious and social issues ... Romney is a bust. Because Romney will not bring up his faith on national TV and Romney doesn't hold deep conservative views ... he's pretty much a moderate.

It's unfair but it's a fact.

2/22/1211:05 AM

Former Member

quote:
Originally posted by Kari:
Have you seen the support for Obama among Independents? That's his strength!

Yep! I saw a poll recently---independents were breaking for Obama. If in Nov 2012 the independents are satisfied with the economy---they'll support Obama like they did in 2008---and he will be re-elected.

quote:

Gallup is a polling company. The Government provides those figures. Are you nuts?

No need to get emotional. I know gallup is a polling company.

Now, did you read this comment I made:

"OBAMA BETTER PRAY THAT THE BLS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE DOESN'T START TO RISE AGAIN."

It's the BLS number that matters---not gallup---and if the BLS unemployment rate rises from 8.3% in Jan 2012---that would not be welcome news for Obama.

quote:
kari wrote:
You are evidently hung up on this 49% thingie. Ever heard of trending? Right track/wrong track?

You really need to read my posts more carefully---it would help your comprehension.

Earlier in this thread I presented proof that an approval rating of 49% or higher on election day guarantees re-election for a president---I showed the approval ratings of Presidents going back to 1956.

I then concluded that if on Nov 6th, the economic numbers are robust and President Obama's approval rating is 49% or higher, then he will be re-elected.

THERE IS NOTHING TO ARGUE ABOUT THAT.

RE: OBAMA'S CURRENT 44% APPROVAL RATING

It's just a talking point---the current BLS unemployment rate if 8.3%---if that rate drops below the rate when Obama assumed the Presidency---that was 7.6% in Jan 2009---then clearly his approval rating would be higher than it is today(44%).

OBAMA NEEDS TO PRAY

If the unemployment rate in Nov is higher than when Obama assumed the Presidency:

Rev

2/22/1211:17 AM

Former Member

quote:
Originally posted by raymond:
always figured you don't have a clue

And it makes you feel incredibly smart, huh Raymond bhai ?

I guess in your haste to tell the Rev how clueless he is---you forgot to read this sentence I wrote:

"OBAMA BETTER PRAY THAT THE BLS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE DOESN'T START TO RISE AGAIN."

Anyway ray--congrats on your astuteness.

Rev

2/22/1211:27 AM

Former Member

I realize unemployment is a big statistic in an election year but you have to understand Obama alone cannot control unemployment.

Obama would like to bring the unemployment numbers down with his shovel ready projects and by hiring new Gov't employees but the republicans will have none of it They would say he is spending when we should be tightening our belts.

The republicans would rather the unemployment rise and the country suffer just so that Obama looks bad.

That's a fact Jack!

2/22/1211:50 AM

Former Member

The Republicans don't have any solution for the unemployment situation. They mostly support big business and nowadays big business mean big profits ergo lean and mean staffing. The kind of taxes they talk about has a very small effect on employment.

2/22/1212:00 PM

Former Member

quote:
Originally posted by Kari:
But did you see the gallup mid Feb unemployment rate they released yesterday---it's 9.0%---a rise from 8.3% in mid January.

Gallup is a polling company. The Government provides those figures. Are you nuts?

Gallup conducts its own U.S. Unemployment survey, which is probably more reliable than that of the Bureau of Labor Statistics because it does not resort to what are called "seasonal adjustments." The BLS has a dazzling array of tricks it uses to try to make the employment figures look better. In particular, they use computer models to "project" new job creation, which they treat as actual new jobs. Then six months later they quietly announce that models were wrong, and release new figures for the old months, while loudly announcing a new set of fake figures for the coming months.

2/22/1212:03 PM

Former Member

quote:
Originally posted by Nuff:
Tell me which other BIG NAME REPUBLICANS have endorsed Romney.

Well Nuffie, the Rev has endorsed Romney--and there aint a Republican in this country as important as the Rev---in the Rev's mind that is.

hahahaha

But you are right---there is a segment of the Republican party that is deeply prejudiced against Romney---and I rather suspect that those zealots wont mind seeing Obama being re-elected.

If Romney doesn't win the republican nomination---the Rev will change his party status from Republican to Independent---but definitely not Democrat.

hahahahaha

BOTTOM LINE:

America is a good country---my family will always be grateful to this country---it's a democracy--and whoever the people choose as President in 2012---life will go on and the Rev will respect that choice.

But until Nov---the Rev reserves the right to hammer away at that communist in the white house.

Rev

2/22/1212:09 PM

Former Member

quote:
Originally posted by Henry:
Gallup conducts its own U.S. Unemployment survey, which is probably more reliable than that of the Bureau of Labor Statistics because it does not resort to what are called "seasonal adjustments." The BLS has a dazzling array of tricks it uses to try to make the employment figures look better. In particular, they use computer models to "project" new job creation, which they treat as actual new jobs. Then six months later they quietly announce that models were wrong, and release new figures for the old months, while loudly announcing a new set of fake figures for the coming months.

Henry:

You are 100% correct!

By the way, that was very kind and generous of you to enlighten and educate our friends kari and Ray.

Rev

2/22/1212:13 PM

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