Poster God:

Do you disagree disagree with these numbers:

2011 GUYANA ELECTIONS:

48.62%---PPP

40.83%---PNC

10.33%---AFC---3rd party gets more than 10%

1964 GUYANA ELECTIONS

45.80%---PPP

40.50%---PNC

12.40%---US---3rd party gets more than 10%

===============

QUESTION:

Do you expect the AFC to match or exceed their 2011 performance ?

Rev

Jesus Christ you are not smart at all.

Thanks for your input. I guess you have nothing of interest or substance to add to this thread.

Rev

I already made my case that you should register at UG since you are in Guyana to take Stats 100. 

Rev, show us your Obama numbers again and we will have to factor in your error of Judgement into your analysis.

AFC has clearly demonstrated its true intentions after the 2011 elections.

It will still gain votes, similar to the United Force, but it is unlikely that the AFC will obtain the votes as in the 2011 elections.

JB:

You have already made your contribution to this thread. The Rev is not interested in hearing any drivel or tripe from you.

One again, thanks for your input.

Rev

Now, now bhai Mitwah, why would you want to embarrass, shame and make a monkey of the Rev ? Haven't I been kind and respectful to you ?

Rev

Is that a threat? My family is not afraid of you people at OP/NICIL/MOF. Keep that in mind.

JB

Rev is telling you in a very diplomatic manner that since you do not have much to contribute then you should make a valuable contribution to just not post in the thread. You claim to be a U.G graduate. Is this what you are made of ? Post some stats and challenge. Do not let down University of Guyana.

Good one!

Unfortunately I went to UG in PPP time.

Even Rev and I had a difference of opinion on the U.S election. In the end, we are still friends. If only posters here could act in a more engaging debate then we can all have fun. But the personal stuff just dampens the atmosphere. 

Excellent point/observation.

U.G produced some great sons and daughters of Guyana during the PPP time and of all political stripes.

What happen you are not using "dirty Indian"? Which means dirty Afro-Guyanese? 

JB:

You are trying your best to derail the thread. Please stop it.

Rev

DG:

You are absolutely correct!

The United Force peaked in 1964---they received 12.4% of the votes---and 7 seats. But it was all down hill after 1964!

The UF is still around---they contested the 2011 election and received 885 votes out of 342,126 votes cast.

RE: THE AFC

They may have peaked in 2011---10.3%

Like the UF---the AFC will be around for years----but they'll likely pull in the single digits from henceforth.

Rev

What a scumbag!  Personal stuff dampens the atmosphere! Given you rain the supposedly personal bull shit here one wonders what the hell are you talking about. But you do not even know yourself since you are a bloody dunce.

Calm down, you might burst a blood vessel. I know that you just came back from the bike ride. I bike a lot too. Still waiting on the bike ride challenge. 

quit the narrative to boost your silly supposition and get to massaging the the real data mathematically if you intend to predict something from historical numbers.Suppositions are  not statistics.

Further, you miss the disproportionate effect of immigration on the PPP base. You so not know how many new voters will be added or from where. The indications are we will get another 50K inclusive of those who did not register and those who will be first time voter. You are a shoddy numbers man.

Lastly, the AFC is a place holder for a vacuum of credibility in the PPP and the PNC. That most certainly is on the increase since the PPP are crooked and crooks do not usually improve their  believability. Distrust  and avoidance is all that inevitably increases.

Since the universe from which that distrust is relevant is the Indian community, that is the community from which the PPP support will inevitably fall. Most likely that population will drift to the AFC if they go to the polls.

Calm down? I suggest you do that.  You and me ride....naah! I prefer the company of dogs as compared to crabs.

Mr. Danyael:

The Rev appreciates your input.

Now! Lemme get this straight.

In your estimation Danyael, the AFC despite charges of corruption, despite charges of mishandling of monies/funds/donations, and despite senior members either resigning or defecting to the PNC, you are confident Danyael that the AFC will continue to attract 10% or more of the votes in the next general election.

Well then Dayyael, if you are correct and the AFC pulls 10+%, then the PPP will not win a majority in the next election.

IT'S THAT SIMPLE.

But you may be in denial Danyael---your head may be buried in the sand-----the credibility of the AFC among Guyanese who reside in Guyana has been shot---the good people of Guyana now see the AFC leaders as just another bunch of opportunists who are consumed by arrogance, self interest, and personal gains.

Do you really believe that 10% of Guyanese will vote for the AFC in the next election ?

Rev

Rev you believe that the AFC cannot get 10% or more. Hence any proof, speculation or saying to the contrary will not be acceptable to you.

Local Elections will be the harbinger of the outcome of the General Elections.

Can you prove that dry water is wet?

Mitwah:

Lemme begin by praising the AFC!

For a 3rd party, they did a remarkable job in the last election---they convinced 35,333 of the 342,126 voters in Guyana to vote for them---that's 10.33%.

Now Mitwah, it has been 2 years since the last election---and today the perception of the AFC among the Guyanese people has changed immensely---the AFC leaders are now seen as usual, run-of-the-mill politicians---consumed by arrogance, self interest and personal gains.

And let's not forget---there has been a fracture in the AFC---senior executives have either resigned or defected.

BOTTOM LINE:

THIS DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR THE AFC MITWAH.

It will be a miracle if the AFC can pull 10% of the votes in the next election.

But keep hope alive Mitwah---Miracles do occur---and your beloved AFC may shock folks like the Rev in the next election----and do better than the 10.3% they got in 2011.

Rev

Local Elections will be a a testimony of how the population feels about the PPP. I am all in favour of Local Elections. The PPP needs to speed up the process with a weakened AFC. They are indeed a threat to the PPP. It would be unwise to ignore this reality.

If you guys can stay away from racism and the insultive labelling, we may get along.

The Rev made it clear a while back that he no longer engages in race baiting on this forum.

Having said that---you and I are on the opposite ends of the spectrum politically----so we will have disagreements.

Let's blast away at each other's ideas---and keep away from the personal attacks.

Rev

The PPP will get between 40% to 45% in 2016. Whether APNU can exceed 45% I don't know. 

Are you saying that the PPP will loose another 8 - 9 percent of votes ? Interesting.

Under what assumption are your numbers coming from ? It may appear that your are assuming that the AFC will increase it's numbers despite the recent fall out.

Interesting.

Yes I am saying the PPP will lose between 5 to 8 percentage points. 2016 will be so close. I did Stats 100. Did you Yuji? 

OK JB!

You are expressing an earnest and heartfelt wish of yours. Respect.

RE: ANPU

What is the highest percentage  the PNC/APNU has ever received in a free and fair election in Guyana ?

That's percentage of total votes received.

Rev

Actual corruption which can be seen and felt is the crux of the matter. Accusing the AFC of stealing bigan money or that its members misspent money is distilled nonsense.

The People have NICIL and its boss insider trading, the Marriott, the Amalia falls debacle, Skeldon Factory , Charity floating wharf,Supenaam wharf, two pradovilles ( look at google map and see how those crooks made an exclusive community) to guide their conscience.

If Nigil was secretary of  A PPP touted investment is deemed bad ( are they saying they are crooks?) what would they call Ramorat sitting of OMAI Board and getting rich while we got screwed? Do you not think they know Omai bought demba for 5 million and sold it four years later for 45 million?

How about Bobby, Geeta Singh, Buddy, Rojer Kan etc who all leeched on the state at the PPP behest? I think we know whose head is in worse than sand?

Once again, the AFC is a function of the credibility gap between the major parties. The AFC simply has to exist to cull votes. They will do better if they get their shit together and actually develop a succinct messaging plan. They most definitely will benefit in showing the People in detail what I stated above. That is not hard.

Contrary to what you believe, many Indos are ready to bury the hatchet and support the PNC if the PNC can show the inclusiveness of Indos participation in the Cabinet and key decisions making process.

Right now neither the PPP nor the PNC have a policy to heal the great race divide.

Meanwhile the PPP Indo support is immigrating and shrinking and who knows how the new first time voters will cast their ballots.

That is exactly what my mamoo said. My family is almost APNU. We have complete confidence in Mr Granger but not really PNC. We want to see the candidates APNU will put up. If not convincing we will vote AFC. PPP no way! 

This is exactly what I hear from many when I visit. I hear also how many are fed up and may not even vote.

If APNU have the right slate, they may win and I hope it's another minority government. The good about this; it would now be possible to perform the forensic audits with Marriot becoming a prison with a Courtyard.

There is no way APNU can get 51% in 2016. If they win it will be with about 46-47%. A minority Granger government will be great for Guyana. 

Mitwah:

If East Indians want to walk backwards to the days when the PNC ruined and bankrupted Guyana---it is their prerogative---no one is stopping them.

We already know that a lot of East Indians in region 6 are disillusioned with the PPP.

THE NUMBERS DONT LIE.

Let's look at the Region 6 results in the 2011 election.

PPP: 32,360 votes(58.9%)

AFC: 11,634 votes(21.2%)

PNC: 10.798 votes(19.67%)

============

Total: 54875

And here is Region 6 in the 2006 election:

PPP: 42,248 votes(74.1%)

PNC: 11,632 votes(20.4%)

AFC: 3091 votes(5.4%)

============

Total: 56,971

OBSERVATION:

* There was a decline in turnout from 2006 to 2011---East Indians went exactly enthused with the PPP like they were in the past.

* The PPP received 9888 less votes in 2011 than they received in 2006

* The AFC received 8543 more votes in 2011 than they did in 2006.

QUESTION FOR MITWAH:

The Rev sees evidence(its in the numbers) that the East Indians in region 6 were willing to break away from the PPP and support the Ramjattan/Moses AFC---but what evidence do you have that East Indians are willing to support the PNC ?

Rev

Rev, you need to get your Focus Group to take the pulse of the people. If APNU field the right slate and Indos don't see a threat, the PNC can be back in power. The current structure of PNC and PPP with all their dead wood cannot heal the great race divide. What's the alternative?