The 10 to 15,000 East Indian votes APNU will pull will come from Region 4. Some will come from Region 3 and 2. Your assumptions are ignoring many factors.  

Mitwah:

Lemme share a secret with you---the Rev has no focus group---the Rev lives in New York City---next time you visit the Big Apple---let's hook for some thai food---and a couple of drinks---that's my max by the way--2 drinks---no more.---we'll invite Nehru bhai.

Now! Regarding the remainder of your post.

* You throw out a lot of "IFs" Mitwah

* I am sure you are aware of the old saying, "if shyt had wings it would fly.

* Another good "if" statement is: "If it is meant to be--it will be."

* So if it is meant for the PNC, which has never won a free election in Guyana and has never gotten more than 42.3% of the votes---if it is meant for the PNC to defeat the PPP it will be.

CONCLUSION:

The AFC did a fabulous job pulling votes away from the PPP in the last election---they got 10.3%----the bad news for both the AFC and PNC and their diehard supporters is if the AFC falls below 10% in the next election---the PPP will win by a majority.

Rev

PS. Regarding the racial divide----that's a tough nut to crack.

Rev, I may take you up on that. Nehru is a good person.

Ramotar cannot unite the races

Dear Editor, There are two very old sayings that have impacted societies in both positive and negative ways. One is “What goes up must come down” and the other is “The longest rope has an end.” These are profound sayings that have been heard by many. Therefore, it is highly unlikely for one to believe that these sayings have not been insightful in helping to shape some of the norms in society. But during the last nineteen years these two grandfather sayings have been viewed as baseless by many in the ruling party who believed that they were ordained by God to rule over the people of Guyana forever. They are wrong. Based on the constitution, their leader will demit office by year end which supports the first saying. And if the views of the masses are reflective of who should govern them, then the PPP is likely to lose the election on November 28 and this subscribes to the second saying. Most people in Guyana do not believe that presidential hopeful Donald Ramotar would be elected president because of his awkward and clumsy style and poor oratory skills. Mr. Ramotar is not an elegant speaker and he is not a statesman by any stretch of the imagination. To be frank, Mr. Ramotar has not convinced me that he is a leader who can unite the races and develop the country. He is seen as a follower who takes his cue from Jagdeo. In simple terms, he is a puppet. In these difficult times, Guyana needs skillful and disciplined leaders like Khemraj Ramjattan and Raphael Trotman to heal the racial divide, develop the economy and move Guyana into the 21st century. These are two young leaders who have the wherewithal to bring stability to the country and improve the lives of the people. I mention their youth because it is Jagdeo who has said that David Granger of the APNU is an old man. This suggests that Jagdeo is not only cynical but is also very poor in his judgment. Granger is 66 years old and Ramotar is 62—a difference of four years. So if Granger is an old man according to Jagdeo, then Ramotar is an old man too. It is this illogical and irrational reasoning that has made Jagdeo fearful of debates. Unlike Mr. Jagdeo who has never debated anyone in his ten years as president, both Ramjattan and Trotman are capable and willing to engage Mr. Ramotar in debates. But the PPP campaign manager Robert Persaud is not truthful when he accused the head of Merundoi, Ms. Margaret Lawrence, of embarrassing Mr. Ramotar because he has not responded to her request for a debate with the other leaders. It must be noted that the Agriculture Minister went to great lengths to reveal Ms. Lawrence’s past associations with the intent to blame her for Ramotar’s non-response. This is an old trick by the PPP which will not work this time. Guyanese are wise and could see the propaganda being peddled by the PPP. The truth is Ramotar is just like Jagdeo who does not have the requisite skills to debate anyone. Ramotar and the PPP will use every trick in the book to dodge the debates. This is why Robert Persaud is on a vicious crusade to discredit Merundoi and Ms. Lawrence. It is an old tactic that the PPP uses to discredit the messenger and deceive the public to cover-up their crooked behavior. Over the years, Jagdeo has constantly attacked Kaieteur News, its publisher, Glenn Lall, its editor, Adam Harris, and its columnist, Freddie Kissoon for exposing corruption and fraud by the PPP. In one of my letters, I wrote that the Jagdeo/Ramotar PPP is vastly different from the Cheddi Jagan PPP, which was compassionate and fought for the working class. The Jagdeo/Ramotar PPP is vindictive and does not care about the working class but their rich and powerful friends. The Jagdeo/Ramotar PPP is associated with fraudsters like Edul Ahmad, the $300 million Barber shop computer scandal, the bankruptcy of Clico, the malfunctioning of GUYSUCO, the denial of funds to Critchlow Labor College, and the $69 million NIS building corruption scandal, just to name a few. The Jagdeo/Ramotar PPP acted as judge, jury, and executioner when it suspended Sharma’s TV for four months on October 3, then under pressure from various civic and political groups, deferred it to December 1. The PPP cabal has and continues to distribute state resources including the ocean front house lots to their relatives and friends. Dr Roger Luncheon’s statement that he offered his good friend Mortimer Mingo (PNC Region 10 chairman) a house lot by the ocean shows who gets to covet the best lands in Guyana. After 45 years of independence and PNC and PPP rule, Guyana remained a failed state and the poorest among its CARICOM members. An AFC government led by Khemraj Ramjattan and Raphael Trotman will defend the civil liberties of all Guyanese, limit government’s interference in the political, economic and social issues of the people, and ensure that every citizen, irrespective of race, colour, religion and political association has equal access to the resources of the state and the national decision-making process as outlined in Article 13 of the Constitution. This will be the sacred duty and responsibility of the AFC if elected to office. Asquith Rose

Of course Nehru is a good person. He and the Rev used to peek at Playboy and Penthouse Magazines at the book store in Guyana Stores back in the old days in Guyana--ask him about those memorable days.

Rev

Nehru and good cannot go together. Scoundrel and Nehru are better. 

It was generally felt/believed that the AFC-2011 was an independent organization unaligned with any other parties.

However, immediately after the 2011 elections, the AFC merged with the PNC and issues are on-folding with the PNC cum AFC activities.

IMPORTANT NEWS: PPP PLANS TO CONSTRUCT MICRO HYDRO PLANT IN REGION 8

President announces hydro plant in region 8

Question: Why is this important news ?

Ans: The PPP lost Region 8 by 254 votes in 2011---AFC 995; PPP 741

The development of the mini hydro plant at the mouth of the Chiung River, Kato in Region Eight ensures that the PPP will retake Region 8---that's 1 vital seat right there---PPP regains majority.

https://guyana.crowdstack.io/topic/ka...nterland-development

Rev

JB:

Please refrain from bashing fellow posters on this thread. Thanks.

This thread demands higher standards.

Rev

JB is just expressing her opinion. Nehru is normally very gentle with the ladies.  Nehru please be circumspect with Miss JB. That's not too much to ask?

That is your cup of tea re "dirty Indian" implying dirty Afro-Guyanese. Got it? 

This is good. The Amerinds know that  less than 0.3% of the carbon funds have been allocated to them.

Yes we are.  You screamed that Obama would only get 47%.  So what makes you think that you are right now, given that Guyana's politics is more fluid, and our polling much less reliable?

What you need to focus on is the fact that every election since 1997 has seen the PPP win fewer votes.  The PNC reversed its decline in 2011 and got more people out to vote.

What you fail to factor is that many PPP supporters are tired of the curent band of theives who run that party.  No longer see it as the party that Cheddi Jagan built, and so many no longer see a reason to vote.

So if the PNC turns out its supporters and the PPP fails to then the PPP will see a decline in the % of votes thatr it might get.  Does this mean that teh PPP will lose.  Hardly.  But does it mean that another election might see it getting 47%.;  Quite likely. 

Remember that those who vote AFC do not do this because they expect them to win.  The AFC gets protest votes from those who feel obligated to exercise their civic duty, but are disgusted by the two traditional parties.  So its likely that the AFC will get votes, maybe 7-10%, despite the fact that it has now lost its aura of moral superiority.

So there is indeed a scenario which has PPP 47%, APNU 44%, AFC 9%.  After all with each year more of the voters are mixed, as those born after 1991 reach voting age.  Even you acknowledge that APNU wins the vast majority of these votes, with the AFC commanding a decent % as well.

In these difficult times, Guyana needs skillful and disciplined leaders like Khemraj Ramjattan and Raphael Trotman to heal the racial divide, develop the economy and move Guyana into the 21st century" Asquith Rose

* In the 2011 general election,  10.33% of the Guyanese voters agreed with Rose and voted for the AFC.

* But 2 years later, with the fracture and fragmentation of the AFC, the number of Guyanese voters agreeing with Asquith Rose would have declined significantly from the 10.33% back in 2011.

* But Guyana is a free country and Asquith Rose can keep talking from now until thy kingdom come---the voters will put him on ignore.

BOTTOM LINE:

Donald Rabindranauth Ramotar will be a two term president.

Rev

the Jagdeo/Ramotar PPP is vastly different from the Cheddi Jagan PPP, which was compassionate and fought for the working class. The Jagdeo/Ramotar PPP is vindictive and does not care about the working class but their rich and powerful friends. The Jagdeo/Ramotar PPP is associated with fraudsters like Edul Ahmad, the $300 million Barber shop computer scandal, the bankruptcy of Clico, the malfunctioning of GUYSUCO, the denial of funds to Critchlow Labor College, and the $69 million NIS building corruption scandal, just to name a few. The Jagdeo/Ramotar PPP acted as judge, jury, and executioner when it suspended Sharma’s TV for four months on October 3, then under pressure from various civic and political groups, deferred it to December 1. The PPP cabal has and continues to distribute state resources including the ocean front house lots to their relatives and friends.

carib:

That's the best you can do after reading the lead post ?

Listen! It's very simple.

* If the 3rd party(AFC) pulls 10+% in the next election---the PPP will fail to reach 50% of the votes.

 

* If, on the other hand, the 3rd party(AFC) stumbles and pulls under 10%---then the PPP receive over 50% of the votes.

START PRAYING FOR THE AFC TO GET BACK ON TRACK CARIB---they have fumbled badly recently.

Rev

PS. OK---you added some comments to your post---I see you have the AFC at 9%---since that's below 10%----the PPP will win by a majority.

Regarding APNY at 44%----the best they ever did in a free election was 42.3%(1992)----they got 40.83% in 2011---and if they run Granger again---they'll struggle to stay above 40%.

What amzes me is that you seriously think that 10.3% is statistically different from 9.3%.  Most polls have a range of 3-4% error.   Given that polling is nopt developed in Guyana we cannot define with the level of certainty that you bring about which group voted for which party.  We now that the African/mixed vote COMBINED probably only gave the PPP about 10% of their votes.  We can only deduce this based on the fact that APNU won 41% of the votes on the backs of this bloc, as they get little support from either Indians or Amerindians.  So most of the 41% comes from what is estimated as 45% of the voters.

carib:

Why are you talking about polls ?

Listen! That 10.33% represents the actual number of votes the AFC received in 2011---they got 35,333 votes out of 342,126 votes cast---that's 10.33%

If in the next election the AFC falls under 10%---the probability favors the PPP hitting the magical 50.1% mark.

Rev

And if voter turn out among Indians is 55% and among African/Mixed its 70% what then?

Note this.  BOTH groups are disillusioned with the PPP.  African/mixed voters are therefore the more motivated voters as they seek to dismiss the PPP. Indians less so as many still cannot bring themselves to support partioes other than the PPP, but now see the PPP as no longer being the party of Cheddi Jagan, so they decline to vote.

The fact that you need to grasp is that the likelihood of the PPP continuing its DECLINE in voter support will continue.  APNU demonstrated an ability to arrest the decline in supported in 2011.  I see no evidence that they have lost the ability to do so.  If they got higher turn out when most people predicted a further decline of the PNC, now that they are seen as being stronger what next?  And rev with more Indo intellectuals gravitating to them it becomes harder for the PPP to use the race card against them.  Even if an Indo refuses to move over to APNUto follow these Indians, if they can be induced not to vote, then that is a vote AGAINST the PPP.

I submit that niether you nor Ican predict anything because Guyana is in the midst of a transition.  Guyanese no longer see govt as their salvation so voter turn out has declined from around 85% as recently as 2001, to around 65% in 2011.  The % of the voting age population that is mixed is increasing.  More Indians feel no urge to vote.  Combine these two facts and it doesnt augur well for the PPP.

You completely failed to understand Mr CaribJ's point.

carib:

There are too many "IFs"---too many hypothetical---too many supposition from you.

The fact is in all the free and fair elections in the history of Guyana---anytime a 3rd party has gotten 10+% of the votes---the PPP has failed to reach 50%.

The above is a fact---and nothing you say---no explaining or no logic can change that.

BOTTOM LINE:

You need to do a pooja carib bai---start praying to Lord Shiva or whoever you pray to----plead with your god for the AFC to get 10+% of the votes in the next election.

That's the only way the PPP will remain a minority government---if the 3rd party pulls over 10% of the votes.

Rev

Rev, now that Reep is gone, who will conduct the pooja for the PPP to get the 5045 votes?

I can volunteer but I do not live in Guyana. 

Mits did not say who will play with poo...he said "who will conduct the pooja."

Cain, behave u self.

It is good to see you and the pedophile having a love fest. Didn't you ban him from conversing recently? However beware, food and drink will not be enough for this critter. You need to throw in a young boy and that will catch his attention.

Mitts:

Good question. Lemme see.

* Reep had his flaws---but the man had a big following---he used to guarantee a lot of hindu votes for the PPP.

* A dear family friend, Pandit Sam, formerly of Courbane Park Guyana---he departed years ago---very nice man.

* Pandit Mitwah bolted the gates and has no intention of returning to the PPP.

* Pandit Yuji now has his navel string buried in Vaughn, Ontario Canada.

Hmmmm! It looks like the PPP are in trouble when it comes to recruiting a  pandit.

MAYBE THEY MAY NEED A REV.hahahaha

Rev

Rev, who is the RDC or NDC for Upper Corentyne?

Mitwah:

Lemme be dead serious!

* I have never, ever, ever been a member of the PPP.

* I was still a teen when I left Guyana

* My parents supported the PPP when we lived in Guyana

* But elections were rigged back then---so supporting the PPP meant nothing----the PPP could never win a rigged election.

BOTTOM LINE:

The Rev lives in New York City---that's 2546 miles from Georgetown Guyana---I am unqualified to answer your question.

Rev

PS. Go and answer my question in the Manna Dey thread in social.

Rev, based on Donald's dismal record since he assumed office, it is impossible for the PPP to get those additional votes. I do acknowledge, their buying power.

Mitwah bhai:

If a total unknown and a previous nobody like Donald could be elected President in 2011----what does that tell you about the PPP and their support in Guyana ?

It tells you that there is a solid core of voters in Guyana who will never walk backwards to the days of the PNC and who will support the PPP no matter what.

So poor record, dismal record, no record---3 years from now---Donald will not contest the 2016 election as an unknown or a nobody---he will contest that election as an incumbent president---and it's very difficult to defeat an incumbent president in an economy that is progressing.

YOU NEED TO BE VERY CONCERNED MITWAH.

If the AFC pulls below 10%---Donald will win by a majority.

Rev

Remind us again what you said about IF's.

That solid core of voters are diminishing due to death and migration and I suspect that core comes from the grassroots which Donald and Jagdeo dissed.

RE: Ifs

The Rev said there is no word like "If"---one engages in wishful thinking and hoping when one uses too many "Ifs".

Our friend carib is very adept at using "if's"

RE: CHANGING DEMOGRAPHY IN GUYANA

Listen Mitwah! You may disagree with 100% of what I'll say---and you are entitled to---but in my estimation, the AFC has peaked---that 10.3% of the votes they received in 2011----that is their highpoint----they have peaked.

Now don't pay heed to what I just wrote---you know I am biased in favor of the PPP.

But speak to the folks who have recently resigned from the AFC and those who have defected to the PNC---the novelty has dissipated----the AFC has become another ordinary, run-of-the-mill political party.

BOTTOM LINE

The PNC has never won a free election in Guyana----infact the most votes they ever pulled in a free election was 42.3% in 1992----last time around they pulled only 40.83%----and that was with the PNC forming an alliance with 4 other parties.

So the probability favors the PPP not only winning in 2016---but winning by a majority.

Could I be wrong---damn right---but until I am proven wrong---I will hold onto the belief that the PPP will continue to rule Guyana.

Rev

If is an important word, given that you have no idea what people will do.

What you fail to understand is that you cannot use elections of the 1997, and 2001 eras to determine what the PPP will do.  It was still seen as Cheddi Jagan's party then.  Nor can you use 2006 when PNC supporters stayed home out of rage at Corbin.

What is not an IF, but a FACT, is that every single election since 1997 has seen a decline in the PPP vote.  In 2011, with a mediocre campaign effort APNU was able to get out more voters, arresting their decline.

Ramotar is no Jagdeo and Jagan died long ago so the PPP gets no credit for him.

Now continue to play with numbers.  Understand this. Its the underlying FACTS that matter.  now little manipulations that you lay with numbers. Surely your embarrassment at the extent to which Obama stomped Romney,k despite the fact that he presided over a weak economy, should have told you that. 

Obama got enough of his voters in sufficient states to win.  Romney did not.  And with Guyanese increasingly not inclined to vote....our population is increasing marginally, yet voter turnout in raw numbers is plummeting.  Its the party that gets its people out who will be able to capture more seats.  Whats indeed a fact is that in 2006 no Indian dared to criticize the PPP out of fear of being ostracized by other Indians.  So popular was the PPP even then.  Now in 2013 loads of Indians are openly at war with the PPP.....and GASP....some are even trotting over to the "dreaded" APNU. 

You see rev, just as how the PPP has lost the aura of Jagan, and so loses votes, maybe the PNC is losing the stigma of Burnham and so some Indos are increasingly open either to supporting them (not out of love, but out of revulsion for the PPP), or MOST LIKELY , not voting, because the PPP is increasingly unable to scream BAD BLACKMAN, and get terrified indians to support them.

So Rev.  My prediction.  PPP 48%.  APNU 44%.  AFC 8%.

CaribJ, excellent analysis.

PPP 47%, APNU 45%, AFC 8%...

I understand that this RDC or NDC or whatever you call them, is a friend of Jagdeo, and he reings over the poor farmers as Lord and Barron. When you want to start a business, you are at his mercy for permission and licence.

Rev, can you settle that bar tab that is unpaid in New York by the PPP big guns?

The thing is that rev's PPP voters are begging to stay in St Kitts and Barbados.  Bdos plans to toss them out.  StK will allow them to stay provided that they vote for the governing party in exchange.

Druggie note that a high % of Guyanese blacks have Bajan grandparents and so have the right to stay on that island.  Most of the remainders are attached to those people with those privileges.  You know full well that no PPP supporter has a Bajan grandfather, so they must hide while Bajans, who now have no jobs rampage the country looking to snatch them and take them to the airport for an immediate LIAT to Ogle.  I guess I can credit the PPP for the fact that these broke people (Bajan cops normally seize their property before they toss them out) will find it easier to get home than if they landed at CBJIA.

Knowing this druggie your your PPP supporters are hiding in Bdos fearful of deportation.  I shudder to think what Bajans are doing to them now....but yet such a life seems better than Guyana.

Nonsense, only a handful of Black Guyanese had Bajan ancestry, the most famous being Burnham.  What you really meant to say was that Bajans are racist towards Indo Guyanese. Your prattle about Bajan grandparents is hogwash. Just by looking at a Black Guyanese, a Bajan can not determine their ancestry. 

Rev Bhai

I like how you usually box Carib in a corner and then Carib starts shooting numbers from the air.  Al least he has the decency to admit that the PPP will win the next election.

Majority or minority, PPP all the way.

On another note, the PPP needs to hire some respectable and impartial civil servants to assist them in being bit more diplomatic when dealing with the opposition. It appears that some of them boys are a bit puffed up and Donald has to call them in his office and have a closed door meeting with them.

We need to move Guyana forward.

Yugi, who is the RDC or NDC for Upper Corentyne?