.

Given the numbers by honourable Rev, the PPP will win a majority. 51 % seems a possible number with the implosion of the AFC. The AFC can never recover from the revelations of fraud, massive corruption and infighting.

If memory serves me right over 10,000 registered voters in Region six did not vote in the last election due to overconfidence of a PPP victory. It is an easy scenario, the PPP needs to get the votes out and the AFC defectors will return home to the PPP. 

The biggest surprise will be the destruction of the AFC at the polls. Indo Guyanese voters from the AFC are uncomfortable with the current top three positions held by Nigel, Cathy and Trotman. A majority awaits the PPP if it return to grassroots campaigning.

5,045. Hmmm. This assumes the opposition will not increase their vote count. 140,000 did not vote last time.  

Most first time voters are likely not to vote for the PPP, especially if they are jobless.

Mitwah:

With all due respect Sir, could please you respond to the historical facts presented in the lead post.

If a 3rd party doesn't pull 10% what are the PPP's chances of winning a majority ?

RE: POSTER ASJ

The Rev respects his viewpoints---but this thread delves into historical numbers and how a 3rd party determines whether the PPP receives over 50% or less than 50%.

Rev

JB:

The Rev expects you to raise your standards and your level of discourse in this thread.

Go back and read the lead post and then post your comments.

Rev

History don't repeat itself in exact fashion. The population is changing.

Most in Berbice will stay home this time. Watch and see.

JB nees to a basic course in math to engage in this discussion. Put together some numbers to back up your post. Let us engage in a lively debate for once.

We will see when the time comes. In the meanwhile back up your statement with some stats.

Have you taken Stats 100 at UG? I did.

JB:

The population is changing you say ?

What % of the population was East Indians when Dr. Jagan and the PPP pulled 45.8% in 1964 ? What % of the population was East Indian in 2011 when Ramotar pulled 48.62% ?

Now JB, Are you saying that numbers lie ?

Listen! According to the numbers---anytime a 3rd party fails to get 10+%---the PPP pulls over 50%

Now JB---you mentioned in the "BLAME" thread that you expect the AFC to get 4-5 seats in the next election.

That means they will definitely pull less than 10% of the votes.

QUESTION:

With the AFC most likely pulling less than 10% of the votes in the next election---how does that bode for the PPP's chances of achieving a majority(50+%) ?

Rev

If you really graduated from UG then let us see you engage with some stats. Show us what the AFC is made of.

In the meanwhile, I expect that Carib will engage and it is really fun to watch the Honourable Rev and Carib engage. You can also join in too with your UG stats.

carib is not a stupid man---he will avoid this thread like the plague.

The Rev expects higher standards from all gni posters who choose to partake in this thread.

Rev

You historical facts are not a predictor of the future outcomes. Had the PPP not bought votes in the past election, they would be sitting in opposition right now.

The current Minority government is an eye opener for Guyanese. They are able to see the corruption more vividly. The Amelia Falls scandal, The Skeldon Estate, The Berbice Bridge, Marriot, NICIL, Brazzy the PPP Bagman.... ED, Roger, Sonny, FIP ....

If the third force has even only one seat and holds the balance of power, then the people will win. Percentages are a waste of time and polls are for the dogs.

Lemme help you out Mr. cain!

A better reply from you could have been:

Numbers don't lie Rev---but people do---and if you are a person---then you lie too.

Now Mr. cain---given the fracture in the AFC---do you still believe the party can pull 10% of the votes like they did in the last election(2011) ?

Rev

So now we are down to belief eh? 

Thanks for your contribution Mitwah.

Now! Let's assume you are correct--and "historical facts are not a predictor of future outcomes"

By the way Mitwah, you sound like you are in the finance field---and are familiar with the behavior of prices in the markets.

But let's assume you are correct Mitwah.

QUESTION:

* Do you expect the AFC to still pull 10% of the votes like they did in 2011----keep the fragmentation of the party in mind ?

Rev

Rev what I said is what I meant, "Your numbers lie" don't let us go pull out the posts from last election where you ran away after the "numbers" came in and they were "wrong"

Now, will the AFC pull in 10% probably no, probably more

But the PPP aint getting anywhere close to what you've predicted

That I am sure.

The AFC is not fragmented. This is Freedumb House Asses propaganda. You are related to Ramotar and you are paid to peddle this lie. AFC support base is not shrinking. Can you comprehend that people in Guyana were upset with them for voting with the PPP on the Amelia Falls.

Like I said, if they can secure even only one seat and that gives them the balance of power... then that's more power to the people. Canecutters who are the base of PPP support are fed up with the PPP. Look at Bath and WCB and see who they are turning to.

cain:

So you are saying that even with the fracture in the AFC---there have been charges of misappropriation of monies---and some senior members have either resigned or defected---you are saying that the AFC will pull more than 10% in the next election ?

Well, Moses, Khemraj and the Hughes will love your enthusiasm and confidence in the AFC.

Anyway, if you are right---then the PPP will remain in the minority.

That's because...

THE NUMBERS DON'T LIE

Anytime a 3rd party pulls 10% or more in a free and fair election---the PPP fails to get 50%.

Thanks for your contribution cain.

Rev

Rev, your numbers lied in the last election.

Mitwah:

The AFC is not fragmented you say ?

Well! You are, indeed, a dedicated and loyal supporter of the AFC.

So I guess you expect the AFC to match or exceed their performance in 2011(AFC 10.3%).

In that case the PPP will remain in the minority.

Thanks for your enlightened input Mitwah.

Rev

Rev, this type of behaviour by the PPP will backfire on election day. Remember the kid who gave Jagdeo the finger?

Miner locked up for heckling Minister October 8, 2013 | By KNews | Filed Under News Robeson Benn hears: ‘Government will lose next general elections’ A 32-year-old gold miner is seeking redress after a government Minister had him locked up overnight for saying that the People’s Progressive Party (PPP) government will lose the next general elections. The Georgetown resident, Andrew John Stone, said that he is taking legal action against Minister of Public Works Robeson Benn who reportedly ordered police officers from the Parika Police Station to have him tossed in the lock ups when he said that the PPP will be out of power for neglecting the people. Stone told Kaieteur News that on Sunday afternoon he was at the Parika Stelling waiting for a boat to take him to Bartica when he noticed the Public Works Minister speaking to a group of people. He allegedly told the group, “Don’t listen to Benn; they are a bad government.” He claimed that his next words were to the Minister, “Mr. Benn, the next elections ya’ll gone lose.” According to the North East La Penitence resident, Minister Benn then asked him “Why?” and he replied, “Cause ya’ll neglect ya’ll own people.” Stone said that his comments were met with support from the people to whom the Minister was talking. “They started to cheer and encouraged me to continue speaking.” Stone said he however left the area where the Minister was and joined a boat to Bartica, but within minutes of him being seated, Minister Benn turned up with two uniformed police officers. Stone alleged that one of the officers said this boat can’t move. Benn then ordered the ranks to take him to the police station and lock him up. When the officers asked Minister Benn why, his reply was, “You hear what I say, I am the Minister lock him up,” Stone claimed. Even after the officers asked Minister Benn to come to the station to make a report, he refused. “I am the Minister” the Minister allegedly said before driving off. Andrew Stone holds up his bail receipt The North East La Penitence resident said he was taken into police custody around 14:00hours on Sunday and was not released until 15:00hours yesterday after being placed on $10,000 bail without being charged. He said that ranks at the Parika Police Station told him that he should return at 08:00hours today. When asked about the charge, Stone said the officers could not tell him why he was detained, only that they were following orders. Stone said that he is peeved over the situation and sees the Minister’s action as an abuse of power and he will not take the incident lying down. He added that his right of freedom of speech has been violated, while the Minister’s conduct is a clear case of victimization. Stone said he will be meeting with his lawyer this morning. Several calls to Minister Benn’s cell phone went unanswered. Up to press time last night, there was still no response to calls for the Minister. Minister Benn attracted attention earlier this year for walking into the National Communications Network (NCN) studios and reportedly banning what he said were “libelous, abusive and slanderous” calypsos. The Minister later clarified that he made a personal objection about one of the calypsos. This however resulted in NCN posting a notice that “no 2013 calypsos must be aired…by order of management.”

The numbers indeed do not lie. Political parties will experience adjustments in votes from the last election.

However, the PPP/C will gain more than 52% of the votes at the next election.

OK Mitwah! The Rev's number lied.

But check these numbers:

2011 GUYANA ELECTIONS:

48.62%---PPP

40.83%---PNC

10.33%---AFC---3rd party gets more than 10%

1964 GUYANA ELECTIONS

45.80%---PPP

40.50%---PNC

12.40%---US---3rd party gets more than 10%

QUESTION:

Did those numbers lie Mitwah ?

When a 3rd party gets more than 10%---the PPP fails to get 50%

Rev

This is so profound.

Oh rass  not you too DG.

I find it quite remarkable how the PPP guys have the numbers already, hmmmmm.

De PNC did it ( elections fraud ) so we(PPP) gonna do it too, is abee time now.

How many more Tshirts the PPP will have to give out to get those extra votes? Ramo promised to fight corruption. What has he done since assuming the Presidency?

Got fatter?

Simply adding my "two cents" to the discussions.

Stick around, you can collect your change.

Mitwah:

You should be delighted and inspired by the numbers in the lead post.

Aren't you confident your beloved AFC will match or exceed its performance in 2011 ?

If that is the case---the PPP will remain in the minority ?

Rev

PS. By the way, Keep this a secret Mitts---regarding Region 8---as you may recall the PPP lost that region to the AFC by 254 votes(AFC 995; PPP 741)---anyway Mits---rest assured that the numbers in region 8 have already been fixed---the numbers have already been counted for the next election---that's a one seat pickup for the PPP right there---keep that a secret Mitwah.

And remember how Jagdeo stole 2 seats from the AFC and then how the PPP man Budhu tried to rig the outcome of the last election. Jaya is gone, so who will rig the results? I thought you were a practical man and would not count chickens till dem hatch.

heheheheh!

The Rev probably eats a lot of alphabet soup to be pulling all these numbers from his ass 

Anytime Rev gives you his "numbers don't lie", just bet on the opposite. His track record with numbers speaks for itself.

Will be nice.