DON'T FORGET:

The (50+1)% of the Guyanese electorate who want continued progress will vote for the PPP/C; the (50-1)% who long for pauperism will vote for the PNC.

Thanks Rev for giving the APNU+AFC such an unprecedented promotion. I was at that was attended by expats from WC Dem, Leonora, CI, Uitvlugt, Hague, Canal..... I could not believe how most of these folks were speaking bad about the PPP/C... too bad they are not voting but they can influence their friends and relatives back home.

*In the 2011 election the PPP only received 83% of the East Indian votes.

* That means 17% of East Indians who voted were dissatisfied with the PPP and voted again them.

* Most of the 17% voted for Moses, Khemraj and the AFC.

* Now! In 2015 the AFC no longer exists as a 3rd party----they have been swallowed up by the PNC.

BOTTOM LINE:

* East Indians who voted for the AFC in 2011 and now feel betrayed by Moses and Khemraj----thousands of those East Indians will vote for the PPP in 2015.

* And so come May 11th, when all the votes are counted, (50+1)% of the Guyana electorate will re-elect the PPP.

Rev

Loud shrill screaming! Is it that you must convince yourself that Indians will vote based on race and that they will constitute a large enough vote to ensure PPP victory?

Your most fervent hope is that young black and mixed stay home, and that Indos vote.  If the opposite occurs you will be begging exile to India to get away from all the "dirty" Indians who betrayed you.

exact same inanities repeated over and over by this crayon antiman pulling weekend duty

yaaaaaaaawwwn

Put it this way.  He must repeat it to himself over and over so that even he might begin to believe it.

READ THIS GNI PNC SUPPORTERS:

"You can't escape reality. Learn to accept the absolute truth."

* Come May 11th many of you PNC apologists will be crushed and mortified when the PPP/C wins their 6th consecutive general election.

Rev

* We all know the PPP received 48.6% of the votes in 2011.

* Here is a likely breakdown of votes for the PPP by ethnic groups:

83% of East Indians voted for the PPP

70% of Amerindians voted for the PPP

27% of Mixed people voted for the PPP

10% of Blacks voted for the PPP

* The bad news for you PNC supporters is this: With the AFC no longer a 3rd party thousands of Berbicians who voted for that party in 2011 will either stay at home in 2015 or vote for the PPP----they will not vote for the PNC.

BOTTOM LINE:

* Come May 11th the PPP will win their 6th consecutive election.

Rev

LET US REVISIT THE 2011 GUYANA ELECTION RESULTS

PNC 40.8%

AFC 10.3%

* Combined the PNC and AFC received 51.1% of the votes in 2011.

QUESTION:

* Now that the PNC and AFC have formed a coalition what is the probability of the PNC/AFC receiving 51.1% of the votes in the 2015 election ?

ANSWER:

* You see folks--the afro Guyanese, the Mixed groups and the Amerindians who voted for the AFC in 2011----these folks will definitely vote for the PNC/AFC in 2015.

* But the East Indians, particularly the Berbicians who voted for the AFC in 2011----33-50% of those folks will never, ever, ever vote for the PNC/AFC.

* And therefore it is impossible for the PNC/AFC coalition to match the 51.1% they received as separate parties in 2011.

BOTTOM LINE:

* When the votes are counted after the May 11th election, (50+1)% of the Guyana electorate will re-elect the PPP; (50-1)% will back the PNC/AFC and suffer the agony of defeat.

Rev

Rev, Yugi22, why are  Indians fleeing from under the PPP/C? Check outside the US Embassy Monday morning.

Over 100,000 since 1992.

And mostly PPP/C supporters.

from 2011 -2014...(31,691) left, CIA.GOV website have population

at 735,554 as of July 2014, oh boy if it's mostly Indos bad news

for PPP on May 11.

How do you know that 27% of mixed and 70% of Amerindians voted PPP.  In Regions 1, 7, 8 and 9 52% of the vote went to the PPP in 2011.

On May 12th as you shed bitter tears about the results, your loudest screams will be directed to the traitors in Essequibo and WCD who voted for Moses.  You will also scream at those ungrateful black people who showed up in huge numbers.

Moses goes to campaign. He is warmly accepted by blacks.  Indians notice this, so when you all tell them that PNC supporters are bloodthirsty Indian haters it doesn't quite cut it.

You might scream at how many will stay home to teach the PPP a lesson.

carib bai:

* This is what we know about the 2011 election:

342, 236: total number of people who voted.

166, 340: People who voted PPP = 48.6%

139,678: People who voted PNC = 40.8%

  35,333: People who voted AFC = 10.3%

HERE ARE THE ASSUMPTIONS MADE:

Of the 342,236 voters in the 2011 election:

42% were East Indians

32% were Blacks

18% were Mixed

 8% were Amerindians

* If you accept the above ethnic breakdown of the 342236 voters as reasonable----then simple arithmetic reveals that for the PPP to get 48.6% of the votes----this is a likely breakdown of the votes they received by ethnicity:

83% East Indians likely voted for the PPP

70% Amerindians likely voted for the PPP

27% Mixed likely voted for the PPP

10% Blacks voted for the PPP.

* Now carib, if let's say you disagree with the 70% Amerindian figure---let's say you believe it's more like 60%----then since we know the PPP received 48.6% of the votes----if we lower the PPP Amerindian votes to 60%---we have to increase the percentage of the other ethnic groups.

BOTTOM LINE:

* The PPP received support from all the ethnic groups on their way to 48.6%----and with a 3% increase in East Indians votes in 2015----the PPP is guaranteed a majority.

Rev

Rev, do you have the amount of voters for 2015 elections ????

i tried looking can't find any info.

* That we shall all find out after the elections!

* But we do know the amount of voters who turned out in the previous 5 free and fair elections:

1992: 308,852

1997: 408,857

2001: 403,734

2006: 336,375

2011: 342,126

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G...neral_election,_2011

OBSERVATION:

* The most votes the PNC ever received in a free election was 165,866 back in 2001; the PPP received 210,013 votes in that election.

* Based on the turnouts in the last 2 elections(336K and 342K)---I wont be surprised to see a similar turnout in 2015.

BOTTOM LINE:

* Regardless of the turnout, come May 11th (50+1)% of the Guyana electorate will elect the PPP/C and experience the thrill of victory and (50-1)% will experience the agony of defeat.

* You are a decent bloke Django---my sympathies in advance to you on your party's defeat.

Rev

"* You are a decent bloke Django---my sympathies in advance to you on your party's defeat."

No problem,i will be cool and accept.

Here is your problem.

I don't accept your ethnic break down of the votes and there fore your assumption of how each group voted are wrong.

Indians are a higher % and mixed are a lower % than you calculate.

Rev the trend of APNU is increasing strength.  They got 114k votes in 2006 and 140k in 2011.  The PPPs vote dwindled from 182k to 166k.

APNU began to campaign very late last election.  They began much earlier this time, and they have been increasing registration in PNC strongholds.

I expect that APNU will have a higher turnout, maybe even enough to offset AFCs loss of some of its Berbice vote. The AFC will also pick up some Indian votes as well.  In addition vote turn out in PPP strongholds might decline.

1997 PPP 221k PNC 161k

2001  PPP 210k PNC 165k

2006 PPP 182k PNC 114k

2011 PPP 166k PNC 140k

The PPP has shown a consistent decline.  The PNC only lost votes in 2006 and regained many of these in 2011.  The PPP is 55k votes down from its peak.  The PNC is only 25k votes off its peak.

If I were you Rev the trends look very bad for he PPP and you should accept it.  The Indian vote is declining through migration.   The PNC is holding on as more mixed people reach voting age. 

The Amerindian vote isn't as important as you think as the interior only contributes 6% of the votes, many of them from mixed people.  The PPP only won 52% of the votes last time.  Its only Region 1 which is solidly PPP.  The PNC won region 7, the AFC Region 8.  The PPP won 55% of the vote in Region 9, even though the opposition did almost no campaigning there in 2011.  They have done much more this year.

I expect some inroads into the Amerindian vote due to heavier opposition campaigning and several incidents where PPP officials have insulted Amerindians, in addition to widespread fear that the PPP is handing over the interior to the Chinese without any consideration for how this will impact interior dwellers.

You can scream about voting conditions in 1997 and then pretend that nothing has changed well.

1.  The Indian vote is smaller

2.  The mixed vote is larger, though smaller than what its overall population figures suggest.

3.  Your average voter in 2015 knows little and cares little about Forbes Burnham.  They are also less ethnically paranoid than their parents, so might be curious about a biracial gov't which is what APNU AFC suggest.

You therefore cannot use data from 20 years ago to predict what the outcome will be in the next 9 days.

If we use 47% of the voters as Indian and 5% of the voters as Amerindian, that was where the PPP won votes.  Almost none from blacks, and few from mixed voters, and this is very obvious in who shows up at your PPP meetings.

There are no more Amerindian votes to get.  Those Amerindians who didn't vote last time didn't because they didn't care about coast land politics. If some vote this time it will be against the incumbent party.

There is disaffection among rice farmers as they have long complained to the PPP about their problems, and were ignored.  Granger has spoken to them so they know he isn't the monster you all project him to be.  So many might not vote.

Did you ever think that the racial panic vote is one that the PPP always gets, and that those Indians who didn't vote PPP last time, aren't impressed by racial screams.  They knew full well that a Nagamootoo vote increased the possibility that the PNC would do better.  Maybe they will not vote this time.

The PNC that you describe no longer exists.  Forbes Burnham died 30 years ago.  APNU AFC is a different creature.

OK Carib!

* So you are assuming the East Indian turnout in the 2011 election was 47% and the Amerindian turnout was 5%

* We know that the PPP received 48.6% of the total votes.

* Let's now work with these assumptions regarding the ethnic make up of the votes:

47% = East Indians

34% = Blacks

14% = Mixed

 5% = Amerindians

* Now carib --with the PPP getting 48.6%---here is the likely breakdown by ethnicity:

83% of Indos voted for the PPP =(0.83 x 47%) = 39.01%

70% of Amerindians voted for the PPP =(0.7 x 5%) = 3.5%

27% of Mixed voted for the PPP =(0.27 x 14%) = 3.78%

7% of blacks voted for the PPP =(0.07 x 34%) = 2.38%

ADD ALL THAT TOGETHER

39.01% + 3.5% + 3.78% + 2.38% = 48.67%

* That's what the PPP received in 2011---48.6%

* And therefore the likely breakdown by ethnicity was:

83% of East Indians voted for the PPP

70% of Amerindians voted for the PPP

27% of Mixed voted for the PPP

 7% of Blacks voted for the PPP

* THE NUMBERS DON'T LIE CARIB!

* The PPP did well among Mixed(27%) and managed to get 7% of the black votes.

Rev

No. Burnham left a GDF that's still 99 % Africans. That level of racism did not even existed under the apartheid system in South Africa. The GDF has  Africans only written all over it. The second unwritten law is that Indians need not apply and the the PPP/C must never attempt the alter the make up or it will be deemed highly racist. The GDF must be dissolved and a new presidential guard service be started that has 43 % Indians 33 Africans and 26 % others.

Why didnt the PPP get rid of all the africans in the army and or recruit more indians?

7% of the black vote is a disgrace.  You indicate that 17% of the Indians voted for parties other than the PPP, mainly the AFC or APNU.  73% of mixed voters are AGAINST the PPP.  More of them will be voting this year and as you can see this doesn't augur well for the PPP.

Your whole premise is based upon APNU not turning out more voters than it did in 2011.  The turned out 25k more voters in 2011, even as the overall turnout increased only by 7k.  Clearly these are the most motivated voters.

APNU began to campaign earlier, and after a very slow start, they have been quite aggressive.  Maybe they might get back to the 165k levels.  Even as Africans have left new mixed voters have come of age, and as you indicate, the vast majority vote against the PPP.

The PPPs problem is that many of their voters in 2001 are no longer living in Guyana. 

Your only hope is that the 11k votes that Nagamootoo got flee back to the PPP.  APNU AFC are building their voter turn out on a more positive base.

LARGE numbers of young Guyanese hope for an era when race is less of an issue than it is today.  The PPP isn't addressing this, and in fact naked appeals to race are turning these people off.

PPP 170k votes. APNU AFC 180k.

That was 30 years ago.

Furnish evidence that since 1992 Indians have wanted to join, but were prevented.

Virtually all of those now with the GDF would have joined since 1992.  How many of those who applied to join were Indians?

carib:

* You're damn right! Only 7% of black people voting for the Indian led PPP is, indeed, a disgrace. What the hell is wrong with those black people ?

* Listen! The PPP can give a million US to every black person in Guyana, but come election time 90+% of those folks would vote for the afro led PNC.

* IT MUST BE AFRICAN PRIDE!

* Oh well! Black Guyanese are entitled to their prejudice against the Indo led PPP and they are also entitled to their ethnic pride.

Rev

  Why should Africans support the PPP when it harbors racists like you, baseman and yuji, among others. 

Yuji screams that he is "pure" and no douglas will contaminate his family.

You fully recall your racist screams in 2012 against Obama

Baseman has said in the past that blacks are lazy, violent, and criminal and cited Congo is typical of what a black run nation is, and that if Indians didn't come to Guyana we would be like Haiti. He ignores the huge numbers of Indians begging to live in majority black islands.

And we have had others.  The PPP printed an editorial in the Chronicle screaming that Africans are violent criminals, who have made no positive contribution.  They have NEVER apologized.

Jagdeo goes to Antigua and Guyanese there tell them how terribly they were treated in Guyana, the land of their birth, merely because they are black.  Jagdeo fired the journalist who reported those comments.  He never addressed the reasons why this is the case.

When it was pointed out that Africans are under represented in top leadership positions in Govt controlled entities, Luncheon claimed that he didn't know why, and asserted that its because they are unqualified.

Every year at Babu John there is a hatefest against blacks, this year Jagdeo loud and shrill and now has to go to court.

Africans are afraid of the PPP. What is the PPP doing to alleviate that fear?

As i stated Indians will not want to join the GDF. A new service has to be started. That's how change will come about. We want to help the country. You are too old to understand that new thinking has to come into play. The GDF has Rodney and the ballot box martyrs blood stain on it. The GDF has the rigging of elections as a history. The GDF perpetrated dictatorship on us for decades. The GDF practiced intimidation of Indians. The GDF practiced kick down the door policy on Indians. The GDF under Granger guidance swore allegiance to the PNC. The culture of the GDF has been from the inception to treat Indians as the "other" to be eleminated. Indians will never see it as their GDF. Indians do not want to tarnish their repetition with that kind of history. We do not want that kind of ghost hanging over our head.

So you answered your question.  If they don't want to join the GDF then why scream that it is majority black.  The GDF falls under the control of the President, who is head of the army, holding the rank Commander in Chief. 

So quit your racist screams.  You look like a member of the Indo KKK.  And dumb as most bigots are.  You seem to be trapped in some time warp and think that Forbes Burnham is still president.  Newsflash,  He died THIRTY years ago.  The PPP has since than assumed full control of the GDF and pretty much decimated it.

Those fears are not based on facts. Indians are 43 % percent of the population.Simple math will explain that 57 % are Africans and others as the break down above demonstrated. Where in the world have Indians dominated Africans. A cursory glance of the PPP/C election list of will show that it is inclusive of all. Has the neighbours of Buxton attacked people in that village or the opposite is true?

Idiot.  You said that Indians don't want to join the GDF.  In fact the GDF is UNDERSTAFFED so open positions exist.  Indians DO NOT apply.

Whose fault is it then that the GDF lacks sufficient numbers of Indians.  They will recruit who wants to be recruited and Indians are NOT among those who do.  In fact Amerindians account for around 10% of the GDF, equivalent to the East Indian population. THEY want to be recruited.

The GDF is Black Power and Black Panther all rolled up in one. It has to go. The next PPP/C government will address that. The GDF must be dissolved. Get it old man?

The GDF is made up of thugs. We don't want to be thugs.

So why scream that the GDF has only blacks.

Now go along and join your Indo KKK PPP meeting where you can scream how much you hate blackman.

Build on that for 2015 using the same turn-out ratio but with the AFC de-fanged:

PPP scores

95% Indos = (0.95 x 47%) = 44.6%

Leaving all other assumption the same, means PPP (48.6% + 5.5%) = 54%, baseman's projections.

Taking another helicopter view, 48.6% in 2011, plus most of the 6% regained from the AFC, where do we stand, PPP 54%, conservatively.

The Region 11 voters who will travel down (giving most to the opposition) will hardly have an impact.