It means a full 5 year term for Ramotar and a working PPP/C majority in Parliament.

 

I wish I could be more hopeful for the cause of ousting the PPP/C but the facts no matter how generously interpreted still fall short of hopes.

APNU+AFC must work hard to bring out the 30,000+ voters who stayed away in 2011. They have to work harder with the Amerinds. The PPP/Curruptocrats are panicking.

An alliance with the PNC does not mean that the people will follow their former party.   When they vote on May 11th, It will be the PNC they are voting for.

Why the change of face?  The Muslim question wasn't answered in the deal..

Amerindians weren't included in the deal. 

a buckman will be incharge of the jail that will hold the ppp  

Right now, the PPP has the key and they are not giving it up...

When they vote on May 11th, they will be voting for Democracy, National Unity and changes to the Constitution.

 

I think you know chap. Indian people ain't voting PNC anymore than Black people are gonna vote PPP.

 

There is no Muslim Question. On May the 11th, they will whip out their Indo Card to be stamped as it must be at least once ever five years.

They will be voting for the PPP.

thats the hold problem the ppp think guyana belongs to them so they treat the people like peasant its too late for the ppp maybe if people like you was raising your voice when they start screwing up the country they will still have the people vote but you supporters encourage them by staying silent 

 

Keep on dreaming Gil.

 

The PPP is headed for a 54 Percent majority. 

 

AFC made the biggest political blunder. They are finished. 

 

Rumjattan is a dunce, he cannot negotiate or he is just desperate after seeing a dying AFC. Only an AFC Presidential Candidate of Moses could have posed a threat to the PPP.

 

Spin Gil, Spin. Yuji's election prediction of victory for the PPP is one hundred percent accurate.

You are into numerology or an example of innumeracy as the Rev is. Where will the PPP pick up 14 percent outside their base? That is their dilemma. They will have to hold the Amerindians and that is not possible. At best they can maintain here. They will have to poach at least 10 percent from the mixed vote and that is impossible. They will have to get and hold 90 percent of the new voters some 60 percent of the electorate and that is not happening. They cannot win with the dog whistle politics and the PNC are the incompetent. They have to sell the illusion that good is to come and since the people know it does not exist. They are all living on the edge, see the corruption, know the impossibility of getting things done procedurally and grasp well the PPP patronage system in the form of payola and bribes. The PPP will do the usual and try to bribe their ways to promising new roads, better water, cheaper electricity etc but that is not going to work. The people are in need of some karma payback from the crooks in the local areas who take advantage of them.

As being discussed in another thread. The new formed party has to get to the young voters and let them see they are the ones needed if change is necessary. They have to show the youth where they stand on youth policies. The youth don't give give a dam about the history of any flipping party, they would more care for their future.

 

It is the old ones who's lives have been however changed because of the political landscape in Guyana. But let's be real, the changes we personally made were mostly for the better.

Chronicle gone to an all time low.......

 

Storm, why yuh bother wid yuji and he 54%?

yuji pick da number outa brown paper bag.

I don't argue with him on that point.

May 11 coming and out goes yuji's 54.

I saw this smh.

Educated and intelligent Berbicians will draw the correct conclusion from this Chronicle insensitive mischief.

Another sign that dem PPP people panicking.

 

Yes I hope East Indians see this as an insult to our intelligence.

That is real grovelling, hehehehe

Not everyone who suffered a heart attack was panicking. Many people die of a heart attack during their sleep.

Skelly them na got no hospital to save the people

when this happens,GY need to boost the health

sector.

While a laughable thought, indeed it is election time and the PPP/C is focused on that issue.

Interesting given that you scream that the PNC are bloodthirsty racists.  Did you tell Granger this?

Carib, give Mits a chance. He on de national unity bandwagon and I'm fine wid dat.

Times change bai. Now that de AFC is in de camp, de PNC cyant be so bad after all. Politics make strange bedfellows.

De unity wukking bai. Three years ago, Granger didn't think Moses was good enough tuh be Speaker, Now he thinks he is good enough to be Prime Minister.

In 2012 the PPP won 49% of the vote with precious little help from the mixed voters.  While they won maybe 60% of the Amerindian vote, voter turn out in the interior is abysmally low, so this 60% isn't as important as it appears.

 

And they lost about 10% of the Indian vote to the AFC.

 

So it does appear that the Indian % of the voters is a good deal higher than that 40% number which people use.

 

I suggest that folks estimate an ethnic break down of the REGISTERED voters before they assume that the APNU/AFC can take a leisuredly stroll to victory.

 

And really it doesn't matter whether the PPP gets 51%, or 54%.  They will take back parliament if they get 51%.

 

Here is a fact Stormy.  If the PPP increases its votes by 5k, assuming that the 2015 turnout is the same as 2011, it gets back the majority.  What has yuji and the other PPP thugs overjoyed is if they get back 60% of the votes which they lost to the AFC in region 6 they get the majority.

 

So I suggest that APNU and the AFC get to work and stop behaving as if they are entitled to support just because "de PPP baaaad".

 

So let us stop looking at census numbers, which show the overall population, and understand that the registered voter population has a very different ethnic composition. 

 

The Indian vote is more important than it appears in the overall census numbers because Amerindian voter turnout is low, and it is a very young population as well.  Region 9, with 50% of the population of Region 5 (a PPP stronghold) turned out only 30% of the voters.  This suggests that Amerindian voter turnout is 40% lower, so instead of assuming that they are 10% of the votes, a 6% number is more appropriate.

 

Similarly voter registration in PNC strongholds is lower than in PPP strongholds, as the  PPP was effective at registering their voters while the PNC, under Corbin wasn't.  Region 10 with 80% of the population of Region 5 only had a vote count at 60%.  Indians and Africans have a similar age structure, so this can be fully explained by lower registration and lower turn out.

 

So the Indian voter base might be as high as 47-50% of the total, even though their overall population is only 40% of the total.

 

So factor this in before you start celebrating the end of the PPP regime.  Indians are still by far the largest voting bloc.   The key will be to boost voting in PNC strongholds to levels of the PPP strongholds, and to chip away at the PPP dominance in Regions 1 and 2 where, even in the disastrous 2011 election, they scored almost 70% of the votes.

Carib banna you is a argue rass. You could show figures why the PPP would kick ass and yet in another thread or if we lucky...same thread you got the PPP gettin the boot with more fancy numbers dem.

 

Exactly what would be the best scenario for Guyana? Let's say you are the Prez, go for it.

I made some statistical calculations in my post above.

 

People need to quit being emotional and start facing facts.

 

1.  In 2011 the AFC increased its votes in Region 6 by 8,500.

 

2.  The PPP only lost control of parliament by 5,000 votes.

 

3.  They only need to win back 60% of the votes which they lost to the AFC in 2011, all other things being the same.  

 

4.  The Indian vote might be as high as 47-50% if one adjusts for age structure and voter turn out based on 2011, a year when PNC turnout was better than in 2006, but still below where it was in 1997 and 2001.

 

 

APNU needs serious work in Georgetown and in Region 10 to woo back those who stopped voting, and to register those who never bothered to do so.

 

It is not inevitable that the PPP will win back the majority, but the odds are a little bit more tilted to them than before.  Unless I see evidence of hard work on the part of the AFC and APNU, I will no longer refute claims by the PPP thugs of a 51% win, though anything above that starts to look ridiculous.

 

When did I say that the PPP will get the boot?  Has to be before the AFC APNU stunt.

 

As of now I reserve judgment on the election results.  I merely state what the environment looks like and how challenging it will be for APNU/AFC.  Both parties are renowned for being quite lazy, so they will have change their behavior, or they will be begging the PPP for the men's room key on May 12th, because the PPP is going to be murderously vindictive if they win back parliamentary control.

He isn't.  The poor naïve fellow thinks that Nagamootoo worked obeah on the PNC and has fully gained control.  The PNC doesn't relinquish power, and he will soon see that.

I am quite certain there is nothing rosy in the PPP future if those numbers are correct. Amerindians vote matter because in region 8, 200 votes give the AFC a seat. It is one they will retain. The PPP has a chance of losing another in region 9. If the numbers are correct, the PPP loses another 2 to natural attrition from immigration in region 6. There is hardly any hopeful news for them. High turnout they  definitely lose, low turnout has to be asymmetrical with more non Indians staying home and that is not likely this time.

 

If those numbers are correct then the APNU simply have to hold turf. If I was running the campaign I would have shape files of the region and simply go after those who already voted AFC from PPP areas and focus on voter education in ones districts

How exactly were the PPP going to be booted before the APNU/AFC merger? You're dreaming.

 

They have a better chance of unseating the PPP by going into this elections as a joint opposition party.

Probably because I have spent almost all of my adult life outside of Guyana, and I tend not to mix with the rumshop Guyanese who chat nonsense and don't engage in analysis of the facts I am not an armchair prognosticator.

 

I look at the political environment in Guyana and offer an opinion.  the party which wins isn't the one which is Godly and virtuous.  It will be the one most successful at coming up with reasons and mechanisms to motivate its base to get to the polls. 

 

Guyanese are very basic people who demand very basic things from their politicians.  They have only known authoritarian gov'ts so have no idea how a proper democracy is supposed to function. 

 

In 1997 408k people voted.  In 2011 342k did.  60k non voters. While migration will explain some of this loss the real reason is that many people are just plain bored with politics.  The population in 1997 was probably the same as it was in 2011.  So as people migrated the youth who replaced them aren't voting.

 

The party which excites is the one which brings back the bored folks to vote, and registers those who never bothered to do so.  This is where the APNU/AFC might have an opportunity.  The folks who are still voting aren't going change who they have been supporting.

The AFC could have aimed to split and depress the Indian vote, as large numbers are angry with the PPP.  Now many of these are confused.

 

Was never a surety that the PPP would have been beaten, but it looks less likely now unless APNU and the AFC mobilize like they have never mobilized before.

       
       
A number of Indians will leave the AFC and go back to the PPP. There is no way for the PPP to go from 49% to 45% and the PNC getting more than 45% at the same time. Just will not happen. The result will be the same as it is now with the PPP as a minority government. There is a much better chance of the opposition unseating the PPP by merging.

Stormy we had an election a mere 4 years ago.  I doubt that there is this drastic transformation that you are chatting about.

 

 

The rest is pure conjecture based on the work that APNU and the AFC do.  It is not automatic that Indians will stay home, or that Africans will suddenly get excited, or for that matter the Amerindians will start voting, other than those who vote because the tochao tells them to.

 

The raw vote roughly mirrors the seat allocation so I suggest that you look at that and not at the mathematics involved in allocation of the regional seats.  That no one can control until the ballots are counting. Raw votes based upon turn out is what is more determinable by the political parties.

 

The PPP has the resources of the state and of the elites to lavish, and have given themselves ample time to do so.  I will give you an example of this.  St Kitts Nevis announced elections around the same time as Guyana did.  Their elections are today (Monday).  The PPP gave themselves 4 months to buy votes with the resources of the state.  Now why couldn't elections have been on March 3?

 

If you think that elections are won on goodness and virtue I will show you a US Senate which clearly wasn't.

 

And a narrow focus is the reason why the AFC only got 11% of the votes. They spent their entire campaign in Regions 5 and 6 and so lost ground in the other regions, other than 8 where the remnants of the UF campaigned for them, giving them a princely 900 votes.  Region 8 being a place where apparently almost no one votes.

Why are you debating about this when the whole environment has changed?

 

Nagamootoo has to sell his "enhanced" role to his rural Indian base, and not just Regions 5 and 6, but to the very angry rice farmers in Regions 2 and 3, and to others in the very populous Region 4.  Will they buy it?  We will start finding out soon.

 

Granger will have to mount a very aggressive registration drive in Regions 4 and 10, and excite people who have completely become alienated from the political process.

 

And then there is the interior which the PPP only has because of a small Amerindian turn out.  There are many angry Amerindians in the interior and the challenge will be to get them out to vote.

 

But I have my doubts about APNU and the AFC.  They like to campaign in front of TV cameras, now they can no longer sit in parliament and pontificate.

       
       
Isn't the forum one where we're supposed to have debates? All I'm saying is that your sit and do nothing strategy is a guarantee for failure. There is a better chance of getting the PPP out by merging. There will not be a major shift in votes from 2011 and that to me gives the opposition a better shot of winning. The aim is to remove the PPP not to have them back as a minority government. If you have a better plan to get them out, let us know but so far you haven't proposed anything better.

You do know that only 5k votes makes a difference and that isn't a major shift, even though it will have major consequences.

 

 The PPP need only take back 60% of the votes that it lost to the AFC.  And you know that many of them aren't too happy with any arrangement which includes the PNC, which they will swear engaged in "beat and kill collie" up to a scant 10 years ago.

 

 

I suggest that you focus on the fact that Nagamootoo telling Indians to vote PNC is a good deal harder than asking them to vote for him as an alternate to the PPP.

 

Here is the deal.  Blacks aren't voting PPP.  Amerindians aren't voting PERIOD.  So the election will be largely determined by what those Indians who are no longer hard core PPP supporters do.  Will they vote PNC?

 

 

Focus on that instead of fooling yourself that a bunch of armchair GNI posters, none of whom are going to vote or even campaign, are going to have any impact.  The most that might happen is that some one glances on GNI and picks up and idea or 2. And they do look at GNI.

 

 

Stick to what I'm telling you instead of making up nonsense that I never even said. Where did I ever claim that armchair GNI posters will have any impact on the elections? 

 

All I'm asking from you is a better strategy from the opposition than merging. You have none because there is none. Save me the drivel.